NFL WEEK 10 ............................2024

Saints +3.5 (-120) over Falcons --- 1.2 units

BF play on the Saints and with Saints coming off losing in the losers bowl VS Panthers.

Crazy but I have to take it. It is the right play.

I do have fades on Steelers and Wash but Steelers are the more solid fade. Much like I talk about the Bears VS Wash being the more solid fade.. but since I didn't back Wash I won't do it here either.

I do it every game or no games. I don't like passing up a win, had the Bears won and covered then I'd make a play off a loss never off a win.

Play is on the Titans again this week.

Good luck Claw.  

Well After losing to the Panthers, I'm sure the money is beyond lopsided in this game.

So hopefully the NFL does you a favor 

This week 2 new teams moved into the top 5 in pts per plays margin.

Chargers into 4th .124 and Ravens tied for 5th with Steelers at .118.

Both new teams are above the .117 of past SB winners at least as of Nov 1st.

Steelers have the better road/home splits. Where as the Ravens are strong at home but weak on the road. Not sure if this is meaningful but eventually  I'll look into it.

Seems to me SB winners should be good either at home or on the road.

The Bears had the worst splits going into the Zona game last week  being very good at home but outplayed by a decent amount on the road and Zona beat the pants off them in Zona.

 theclaw

Are you studying DEF points per play margin?  I'd prefer to take a sneaky good DEF team.

Good luck this week.

This is not a new phenomenon; it dates back to Lamar Jackson and seasons 2018 to date.  Stats from Gimme the Dog (Killer Sports may differ):

team = Ravens and season > 2017 and A

SU = 35-21 (5.3,62.5%)

ATS = 35-19-2 (3.9,64.8%)

team = Ravens and season > 2017 and H

SU = 38-20 (7.6,65.5%)

ATS = 27-30-1 (2.7,47.4%)

That is a stark differential, but it might not work in any particular game (just like any other handicapping method).

TC 

@theclaw

 Let’s get it this week bro. 

@theclaw

 Solid pick this week.

BOL Claw

 .................

@Chauster...........

@Fuse...............

Not as of yet but I plan to do both offensive and defensive hopefully before the playoffs start. 

8 was talking about specifically this season. I looked at 2019 Ravens, if u remember  that team came into the playoffs off 10 straight wins and crushing teams.

As of Nov 1st they were outplayed at home by quite a bit but were dominate on the road. It did not equate to playoff success though.

Looking up a number of SB Winners, nothing there to see as of Nov 1st.

Possible as of Nov 1st there are not alot of home or road games yet so not a good indicator until maybe later on the season or end of season.

Titans +7.5 (-115) over Chargers --- 1.15 units

9ers -5.5 (-120) over Bucs --- 1.2 units

Titans a BF play on team after failing to cover closing line last week VS Pats.

9ers week 1 top 3 biggest performers 3-4 ATS after week 1. I'd look for them to get to .500 ATS this week in weeks 2 and after.

Other system ...............8-5

Titans +7.5 (-115) over Chargers

9ers -5.5 (-120) over Bucs

Well, looky here .......... this method did not  influence my plays but it is sure very nice I am on the same side.

Other system week by week results .........

2-1

2-1 

1-0

No plays

1-2

1-1

1-0

4 winning weeks, 1 losing week, 1 .500 week

The earliest this method can start is week 3.

I haven't ran all the teams yet so there could be additional  plays.

Other system ......

1 additional play

Eagles -7 (-115) over Cowboys

3 plays this week

@theclaw

Would you consider playing Niners 1st half -3.5?....TB coming off OT and short week...

Yes ....................

CLAW 

Texans +4 (-130) over Lions--- 2.4 units

Texans 1st half +2.5 (+100)) --- 1 unit

Additional plays on these 2 teams.........

Saints +4 (-120) over Falcons --- 1.2 units

Saints 1st half +2.5 (+100) --- 1 units

Titans +8 (-120) over Chargers --- 1.2 units

Titans 1st half +4.5 (-120) --- 1.2 units

Pending plays ............

Saints +3.5 (-120)  over Falcons --- 1.2 units

Titans +7.5 (-115) over Chargers --- 1.15 units

Basically we have 2 unit plays on Texans, Saints, and Titans

and 1 unit plays on the 1st half for all 3 teams.

Very strong spot to back these 3 teams according to the Bounce Factor along with other methods as well.

On top of those 2 unit plays we have this 1 unit play

9ers -5.5 (-120) over Bucs --- 1.2 units

@theclaw

 With you 49ers and saints bro. Good luck