NFL WEEK 10 ............................2024

 .........we should have a very good shot at 2-0 ATS with those 2 teams with 0-2 ATS being unlikely......................

@theclaw

 With you on the Saints and Texans. BOL! 

We have some great spots today with 3 teams deep in regression. 

This should be a very good day. Every year we get one of these weeks with multiple teams deep in regression.

Last year came in week 12 or 13, I did have Seahawks over the red-hot Cowboys, 1st half and game ATS and 1st half and game dog on ML and went 3-1 just losing out on the game ML when Seahawks lost a close game at the end.

Won the other deep regression  plays as well scoring something like 10-12 units profit on the day or whatever it was. 

Hopefully we get it done again.

ML's are all alive on these 3 dogs both 1st half and game. Don't be surprised if Titans win SU in 1st half over Chargers even be there right at the end for the SU win. May end the same as Seahawks/ Boys last year with Chargers squeaking by at the end.

Should be a reasonably good shot to hit the ML's.

I see many on you tube backing Steelers +3 over Wash. I agree Steelers are the better team but they are in a regression  spot.

As is Wash but Steelers would be the more solid fade. Personally I'd pass on this game.

Steelers also have Ravens next week at home.

I also see many liking  the over, I like the under myself, With both teams in regression .

Another game I see many liking the over is Lions/Texans game. But again I like the Under and Lions TT Under.

I'd take action on this game if not for Lions going under last week. Lions off those 4 straight games scoring 30 or better with 3 of 4 over 40 and a 52 & 47 pt game. Just ridiculous. 

But that streak broken last week when they were a regression  fade  but did cover.

I'd still like the Under though more then the over.

My survivor pick this week is .......Bears over the Pats.

I think this is a good week to use the Bears.

Off 2 SU & ATS losses with a 29-9 beat-dwn last week on the road VS Zona.

Bears have the largest difference between home/road performance in pts per plays margin.

Now back at home where they have played very well and with a brutal stretch of games to follow in the coming weeks after the Pats this team really needs to be very focused on getting back to much better play and doing it VS the weak Pats should be exactly what the doc ordered.

I like Bears to not only win but cover the 6 pts as well.

I did the same on my survivor pick this week instead of chargers . 

Very nice ............

One thing I'd  like to point out guys. When we get to mid-season something magical happens and some teams reverse their 1st half performance. 

Teams like the Colts who were 7-1 ATS won't be 7-1 ATS 2cd half. Many times these teams will be 4-4 or 3-5 ATS  2cd half. Maybe 5-3 but don't always expect the same results 2cd half.

Look no further  then the Panthers, a pathetic 1-7 ATS and they could very well be 2-0 ATS after this Giants game.

Stuff happens guys.

Last week everyone was on Colts over Vikings and they were mentioning how Colts had the best ATS record, sharps included. 

This was one small reason I took Vikes in my survivor pick.

This werk the same, on Colts again. This week I wouldn't fade Colts because Bills have KC next week and Colts have a big difference  in road/home performance being much better at home and with Bills having KC next week.

But don't  be surprised people .........if Colts flop again this week ATS.

Hey, that brings us to my 3 plays this week. Titans 1-7 ATS. Don't  be surprised if Titans do what the Panthers are doing and the Colts.

Reversing their 1st half.

Lions 7-1 ATS, oh boy .........

Can the Saints reverse course ?

Not all teams will but there are going to be some big reversals coming 2cd half

There are some teams will sustain very good performances, Steelers come to mind as one of those teams.

I think Lions will be strong 2cd half but not 7-1 ATS though. 

Saint win 1st half ATS and SU on ML.................

Very nice to get that first win.

Wash up on Steelers at half but looks like game going over. Crazy but total yds is 113 to 97 and 3.5 ave per play to 2.9, this has under written all over it.

Going on 4th down deep in own territory with receivers wide open and don't get it.

Then fumbled punt both leading to easy TDs.

Bills up on Colts at the half.

Pats leading the Bears, oh boy ........

@theclaw

thanks for posting this info!!  Enjoy the read for sure.  I had heavy lean on Chargers but this thread has me thinking......hmmmm. 

I may sit it out and root for ya.  Either way, it's gambling, right?  GL this weekend amigo!!  Hammer 'em!!  

Titans really let me down today. QB did outplay Hebert though. 127 to 123 Passer Rating. He played very well.................

Texans rolling the Lions at half.

Need Texans on the game to finish with a winning day.

So far dogs on ML, 3-2 had I played them with Texans on the game still very much alive and looking very winnable.

Lions TT looks like the Under was the right side. But I suspect Lions will make a run 2cd half.

@theclaw

 Solid week man. Keep up the great work