Will be doing a write up on this one also...don't think anyone is going to understand it because of my pure points methodology. oh well
bol to ya bro ! ..Eli's come-n......Giants win SU.
also had little write-up myself on it. Eli will be amazing. Donnell will unstoppable. OBJ will be a psyco. Gore and Hyde will be in asleep. Kap will be Kap. enough said.
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Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Will be doing a write up on this one also...don't think anyone is going to understand it because of my pure points methodology. oh well
bol to ya bro ! ..Eli's come-n......Giants win SU.
also had little write-up myself on it. Eli will be amazing. Donnell will unstoppable. OBJ will be a psyco. Gore and Hyde will be in asleep. Kap will be Kap. enough said.
This is a model of SF & NY's pure points per game evaluation using a home /away dichtonomy. There are many factors and methods that go into reaching this model that are not revealed. This is a draft of the final model and how I determine a side in a game. There are many on here that will not understand this process and how I incorporate this method from the stats etc and recent form of each team.. However there are many that will.
San Francisco's pure points per game(pppg) evaluation L4 @away:
Opp True-final Opp Rating
Saints 17-24 21
Denver 17-42 31
StLouis 24-17 16.5
Arizona 14-23 22.5
72-106 22.5
PF >72-106< PA = -34 True Differential(TD) add the HF disadvantage pts(12) div by 4 gms = -5.5 pppg. A.O.P.R ( 22.5 - 5.5 pppg).
The model shows SF entering this matchup with NY with a negative T.D > giving up more on defense than they score on offense. SF losing to their A.O.P.R.> 22.5 by 5.5 pppg.( 22.5 - 5.5) This gives SF a 17 road rating.. Their average score on offense using a high low method average is 17pppg. Average scoring defense 23pppg.giving
This model shows NY with also a negative T.D.. a negative T.D. of -14. subtract the HF advantage pts (-12)= 26. Div by 4 gms = -6.5 pppg. NY's aopr> 22... 22 -6.5pppg = 15.5 add 3pts (HFA) and NY's home rating in this game is18...1 pt greater than SF's road rating. and NY is +5 (my line) an overlay of 6pts.
Win margin prediction..not necessarily the final score( just looking for a win margin)
SF 17-23
NY 22-22
25-19 shows NY the..dog winning by 6..maybe 3 FG SU &ATS
These are just numbers..the human factor/intangeables takes place 11/16..Turnovers can not be incorporated into the model. They can only be listed as a stat for each team along with other stats from these 2 teams in my data base listed on my spread sheet for this matchup. I can care less what happened to the G-men last week @ Seattle. They are home this week. I can also careless what happens between the 20's. My capping is to determine what happens in the endzone....Points. Who can get em...who can keep their opponent from getting them in a home/away dichtonomy.
0
This is a model of SF & NY's pure points per game evaluation using a home /away dichtonomy. There are many factors and methods that go into reaching this model that are not revealed. This is a draft of the final model and how I determine a side in a game. There are many on here that will not understand this process and how I incorporate this method from the stats etc and recent form of each team.. However there are many that will.
San Francisco's pure points per game(pppg) evaluation L4 @away:
Opp True-final Opp Rating
Saints 17-24 21
Denver 17-42 31
StLouis 24-17 16.5
Arizona 14-23 22.5
72-106 22.5
PF >72-106< PA = -34 True Differential(TD) add the HF disadvantage pts(12) div by 4 gms = -5.5 pppg. A.O.P.R ( 22.5 - 5.5 pppg).
The model shows SF entering this matchup with NY with a negative T.D > giving up more on defense than they score on offense. SF losing to their A.O.P.R.> 22.5 by 5.5 pppg.( 22.5 - 5.5) This gives SF a 17 road rating.. Their average score on offense using a high low method average is 17pppg. Average scoring defense 23pppg.giving
This model shows NY with also a negative T.D.. a negative T.D. of -14. subtract the HF advantage pts (-12)= 26. Div by 4 gms = -6.5 pppg. NY's aopr> 22... 22 -6.5pppg = 15.5 add 3pts (HFA) and NY's home rating in this game is18...1 pt greater than SF's road rating. and NY is +5 (my line) an overlay of 6pts.
Win margin prediction..not necessarily the final score( just looking for a win margin)
SF 17-23
NY 22-22
25-19 shows NY the..dog winning by 6..maybe 3 FG SU &ATS
These are just numbers..the human factor/intangeables takes place 11/16..Turnovers can not be incorporated into the model. They can only be listed as a stat for each team along with other stats from these 2 teams in my data base listed on my spread sheet for this matchup. I can care less what happened to the G-men last week @ Seattle. They are home this week. I can also careless what happens between the 20's. My capping is to determine what happens in the endzone....Points. Who can get em...who can keep their opponent from getting them in a home/away dichtonomy.
Wizer, I raised my bet on Seattle. Yes indeed. What's up??
Where's your posted plays/documentation on that bankroll from last week. Don't see any posted plays for this week either....MLB.?? Its obvious you have some self esteem issues. Get a life...then get lost. You wont be around here after week 11
My wife and I were in Las Vegas for her Birthday throughout last weekend and stayed till 11/10. I didn't exactly jump to my phone to inform Covers threads of my plays. Like I said before, going forward I will.
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Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Quote Originally Posted by NFLGuru83:
Wizer, I raised my bet on Seattle. Yes indeed. What's up??
Where's your posted plays/documentation on that bankroll from last week. Don't see any posted plays for this week either....MLB.?? Its obvious you have some self esteem issues. Get a life...then get lost. You wont be around here after week 11
My wife and I were in Las Vegas for her Birthday throughout last weekend and stayed till 11/10. I didn't exactly jump to my phone to inform Covers threads of my plays. Like I said before, going forward I will.
Where's your posted plays/documentation on that bankroll from last week. Don't see any posted plays for this week either....MLB.?? Its obvious you have some self esteem issues. Get a life...then get lost. You wont be around here after week 11
My wife and I were in Las Vegas for her Birthday throughout last weekend and stayed till 11/10. I didn't exactly jump to my phone to inform Covers threads of my plays. Like I said before, going forward I will.
.. I have some property for sale down in Florida if you're interested. Don't worry...its not any property on a sink hole. I have the documentation
0
Quote Originally Posted by NFLGuru83:
Where's your posted plays/documentation on that bankroll from last week. Don't see any posted plays for this week either....MLB.?? Its obvious you have some self esteem issues. Get a life...then get lost. You wont be around here after week 11
My wife and I were in Las Vegas for her Birthday throughout last weekend and stayed till 11/10. I didn't exactly jump to my phone to inform Covers threads of my plays. Like I said before, going forward I will.
.. I have some property for sale down in Florida if you're interested. Don't worry...its not any property on a sink hole. I have the documentation
Wizer, What do mean posted plays? I did pick NFL games I like under the LEAGUE CONTESTS/ MAKE PICKS tab. Inform me how to post plays you speak of if I'm doing something wrong.
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Wizer, What do mean posted plays? I did pick NFL games I like under the LEAGUE CONTESTS/ MAKE PICKS tab. Inform me how to post plays you speak of if I'm doing something wrong.
Where's your posted plays/documentation on that bankroll from last week. Don't see any posted plays for this week either....MLB.?? Its obvious you have some self esteem issues. Get a life...then get lost. You wont be around here after week 11My wife and I were in Las Vegas for her Birthday throughout last weekend and stayed till 11/10. I didn't exactly jump to my phone to inform Covers threads of my plays. Like I said before, going forward I will.
.. I have some property for sale down in Florida if you're interested. Don't worry...its not any property on a sink hole. I have the documentation
Thanks, but no thanks. Just bought 12/2012....
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Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Quote Originally Posted by NFLGuru83:
Where's your posted plays/documentation on that bankroll from last week. Don't see any posted plays for this week either....MLB.?? Its obvious you have some self esteem issues. Get a life...then get lost. You wont be around here after week 11My wife and I were in Las Vegas for her Birthday throughout last weekend and stayed till 11/10. I didn't exactly jump to my phone to inform Covers threads of my plays. Like I said before, going forward I will.
.. I have some property for sale down in Florida if you're interested. Don't worry...its not any property on a sink hole. I have the documentation
So, I wagered on 8 different outcomes last week for a +3.25U profit last week. Currently, I have 3 wagers for NFL week 11: Seahawks +1 (-120) 18U 49ers -4 (-110) 5U 5TM Parlay card: GB, Denver, S.F., Detroit, Indianapolis 1U There you go Wizer. You should be able to figure out the Bankroll I have, but it is my bankroll for the NFL and does not include MLB Bankroll (season over) I wager on these two sports as well MMA. This is in response to you thinking I am a one pump chump and am about to crash and burn, if and when the Seahawks lose. IMO they don't. I look forward to getting to know you man. GL this week.
...and Im looking forward to not seeing you in here after your Seattle and San Fran bets go south. GL Sunday
3600 on Seattle ... down to 1800. ?..didn't lose your confidence in your play by any chance now did ya.
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Quote Originally Posted by NFLGuru83:
So, I wagered on 8 different outcomes last week for a +3.25U profit last week. Currently, I have 3 wagers for NFL week 11: Seahawks +1 (-120) 18U 49ers -4 (-110) 5U 5TM Parlay card: GB, Denver, S.F., Detroit, Indianapolis 1U There you go Wizer. You should be able to figure out the Bankroll I have, but it is my bankroll for the NFL and does not include MLB Bankroll (season over) I wager on these two sports as well MMA. This is in response to you thinking I am a one pump chump and am about to crash and burn, if and when the Seahawks lose. IMO they don't. I look forward to getting to know you man. GL this week.
...and Im looking forward to not seeing you in here after your Seattle and San Fran bets go south. GL Sunday
3600 on Seattle ... down to 1800. ?..didn't lose your confidence in your play by any chance now did ya.
You don't know me and I don't know you, but quit the immaturity. Please, it's annoying. I'm going to be here going forward man. I guess my bet amount shook you up. Get over it! Let's talk football like I see you doing with everybody else.
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You don't know me and I don't know you, but quit the immaturity. Please, it's annoying. I'm going to be here going forward man. I guess my bet amount shook you up. Get over it! Let's talk football like I see you doing with everybody else.
So, I wagered on 8 different outcomes last week for a +3.25U profit last week. Currently, I have 3 wagers for NFL week 11:Seahawks +1 (-120) 18U49ers -4 (-110) 5U5TM Parlay card:GB, Denver, S.F., Detroit, Indianapolis 1UThere you go Wizer. You should be able to figure out the Bankroll I have, but it is my bankroll for the NFL and does not include MLB Bankroll (season over) I wager on these two sports as well MMA. This is in response to you thinking I am a one pump chump and am about to crash and burn, if and when the Seahawks lose. IMO they don't. I look forward to getting to know you man. GL this week.
...and Im looking forward to not seeing you in here after your Seattle and San Fran bets go south. GL Sunday3600 on Seattle ... down to 1800. ?..didn't lose your confidence in your play by any chance now did ya.
$3600 (18U) Seahawks +1 @ -120
0
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Quote Originally Posted by NFLGuru83:
So, I wagered on 8 different outcomes last week for a +3.25U profit last week. Currently, I have 3 wagers for NFL week 11:Seahawks +1 (-120) 18U49ers -4 (-110) 5U5TM Parlay card:GB, Denver, S.F., Detroit, Indianapolis 1UThere you go Wizer. You should be able to figure out the Bankroll I have, but it is my bankroll for the NFL and does not include MLB Bankroll (season over) I wager on these two sports as well MMA. This is in response to you thinking I am a one pump chump and am about to crash and burn, if and when the Seahawks lose. IMO they don't. I look forward to getting to know you man. GL this week.
...and Im looking forward to not seeing you in here after your Seattle and San Fran bets go south. GL Sunday3600 on Seattle ... down to 1800. ?..didn't lose your confidence in your play by any chance now did ya.
You don't know me and I don't know you, but quit the immaturity. Please, it's annoying. I'm going to be here going forward man. I guess my bet amount shook you up. Get over it! Let's talk football like I see you doing with everybody else.
No..but your bet amount will shake you up after the game...don't get any on ya
0
Quote Originally Posted by NFLGuru83:
You don't know me and I don't know you, but quit the immaturity. Please, it's annoying. I'm going to be here going forward man. I guess my bet amount shook you up. Get over it! Let's talk football like I see you doing with everybody else.
No..but your bet amount will shake you up after the game...don't get any on ya
I could lose this weeks wager amount for the rest of the season and not be broke. There you need to finally STF up bro. Let's see it play out. Thanks for the write up Wizer.
0
I could lose this weeks wager amount for the rest of the season and not be broke. There you need to finally STF up bro. Let's see it play out. Thanks for the write up Wizer.
This is a model of SF & NY's pure points per game evaluation using a home /away dichtonomy. There are many factors and methods that go into reaching this model that are not revealed. This is a draft of the final model and how I determine a side in a game. There are many on here that will not understand this process and how I incorporate this method from the stats etc and recent form of each team.. However there are many that will.
San Francisco's pure points per game(pppg) evaluation L4 @away:
Opp True-final Opp Rating
Saints 17-24 21
Denver 17-42 31
StLouis 24-17 16.5
Arizona 14-23 22.5
72-106 22.5
PF >72-106< PA = -34 True Differential(TD) add the HF disadvantage pts(12) div by 4 gms = -5.5 pppg. A.O.P.R ( 22.5 - 5.5 pppg).
The model shows SF entering this matchup with NY with a negative T.D > giving up more on defense than they score on offense. SF losing to their A.O.P.R.> 22.5 by 5.5 pppg.( 22.5 - 5.5) This gives SF a 17 road rating.. Their average score on offense using a high low method average is 17pppg. Average scoring defense 23pppg.giving
This model shows NY with also a negative T.D.. a negative T.D. of -14. subtract the HF advantage pts (-12)= 26. Div by 4 gms = -6.5 pppg. NY's aopr> 22... 22 -6.5pppg = 15.5 add 3pts (HFA) and NY's home rating in this game is18...1 pt greater than SF's road rating. and NY is +5 (my line) an overlay of 6pts.
Win margin prediction..not necessarily the final score( just looking for a win margin)
SF 17-23
NY 22-22
25-19 shows NY the..dog winning by 6..maybe 3 FG SU &ATS
These are just numbers..the human factor/intangeables takes place 11/16..Turnovers can not be incorporated into the model. They can only be listed as a stat for each team along with other stats from these 2 teams in my data base listed on my spread sheet for this matchup. I can care less what happened to the G-men last week @ Seattle. They are home this week. I can also careless what happens between the 20's. My capping is to determine what happens in the endzone....Points. Who can get em...who can keep their opponent from getting them in a home/away dichtonomy.
Very impressive, Wize. Nice system you have. It must be comforting having math to rely on to form your opinions. Alas, all I have to work with is that human/psychological/emotional factor you mentioned at the end. I think Aldon Smith will give them a big boost (something those numbers can't account for). Of course, the Giants will also get a boost with the return of Jennings. Anyway, hate seeing you against my Niners (as well as LC) but I got Harbaugh, revenge and proving the critics wrong (all intangibles) going for me, which I hope will be enough. Good luck, and I like the Chiefs pick as well as the Saints.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
This is a model of SF & NY's pure points per game evaluation using a home /away dichtonomy. There are many factors and methods that go into reaching this model that are not revealed. This is a draft of the final model and how I determine a side in a game. There are many on here that will not understand this process and how I incorporate this method from the stats etc and recent form of each team.. However there are many that will.
San Francisco's pure points per game(pppg) evaluation L4 @away:
Opp True-final Opp Rating
Saints 17-24 21
Denver 17-42 31
StLouis 24-17 16.5
Arizona 14-23 22.5
72-106 22.5
PF >72-106< PA = -34 True Differential(TD) add the HF disadvantage pts(12) div by 4 gms = -5.5 pppg. A.O.P.R ( 22.5 - 5.5 pppg).
The model shows SF entering this matchup with NY with a negative T.D > giving up more on defense than they score on offense. SF losing to their A.O.P.R.> 22.5 by 5.5 pppg.( 22.5 - 5.5) This gives SF a 17 road rating.. Their average score on offense using a high low method average is 17pppg. Average scoring defense 23pppg.giving
This model shows NY with also a negative T.D.. a negative T.D. of -14. subtract the HF advantage pts (-12)= 26. Div by 4 gms = -6.5 pppg. NY's aopr> 22... 22 -6.5pppg = 15.5 add 3pts (HFA) and NY's home rating in this game is18...1 pt greater than SF's road rating. and NY is +5 (my line) an overlay of 6pts.
Win margin prediction..not necessarily the final score( just looking for a win margin)
SF 17-23
NY 22-22
25-19 shows NY the..dog winning by 6..maybe 3 FG SU &ATS
These are just numbers..the human factor/intangeables takes place 11/16..Turnovers can not be incorporated into the model. They can only be listed as a stat for each team along with other stats from these 2 teams in my data base listed on my spread sheet for this matchup. I can care less what happened to the G-men last week @ Seattle. They are home this week. I can also careless what happens between the 20's. My capping is to determine what happens in the endzone....Points. Who can get em...who can keep their opponent from getting them in a home/away dichtonomy.
Very impressive, Wize. Nice system you have. It must be comforting having math to rely on to form your opinions. Alas, all I have to work with is that human/psychological/emotional factor you mentioned at the end. I think Aldon Smith will give them a big boost (something those numbers can't account for). Of course, the Giants will also get a boost with the return of Jennings. Anyway, hate seeing you against my Niners (as well as LC) but I got Harbaugh, revenge and proving the critics wrong (all intangibles) going for me, which I hope will be enough. Good luck, and I like the Chiefs pick as well as the Saints.
I could lose this weeks wager amount for the rest of the season and not be broke. There you need to finally STF up bro. Let's see it play out. Thanks for the write up Wizer.
Of course you could lose this weeks wager amount and not be broke...you never pay your bookies. Didn't mean to get your panties in a wad. Now go upstairs....your mother is calling you for dinner. See ya
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Quote Originally Posted by NFLGuru83:
I could lose this weeks wager amount for the rest of the season and not be broke. There you need to finally STF up bro. Let's see it play out. Thanks for the write up Wizer.
Of course you could lose this weeks wager amount and not be broke...you never pay your bookies. Didn't mean to get your panties in a wad. Now go upstairs....your mother is calling you for dinner. See ya
Very impressive, Wize. Nice system you have. It must be comforting having math to rely on to form your opinions. Alas, all I have to work with is that human/psychological/emotional factor you mentioned at the end. I think Aldon Smith will give them a big boost (something those numbers can't account for). Of course, the Giants will also get a boost with the return of Jennings. Anyway, hate seeing you against my Niners (as well as LC) but I got Harbaugh, revenge and proving the critics wrong (all intangibles) going for me, which I hope will be enough. Good luck, and I like the Chiefs pick as well as the Saints.
Man thanks for stopping by BB...its nice to talk to intelligent people for a change...GL bro..
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Very impressive, Wize. Nice system you have. It must be comforting having math to rely on to form your opinions. Alas, all I have to work with is that human/psychological/emotional factor you mentioned at the end. I think Aldon Smith will give them a big boost (something those numbers can't account for). Of course, the Giants will also get a boost with the return of Jennings. Anyway, hate seeing you against my Niners (as well as LC) but I got Harbaugh, revenge and proving the critics wrong (all intangibles) going for me, which I hope will be enough. Good luck, and I like the Chiefs pick as well as the Saints.
Man thanks for stopping by BB...its nice to talk to intelligent people for a change...GL bro..
I'm chomping my nails in anticipation of Sundays victory. Hey, all the smack you're talking Wizer could backfire. If I lose, I own it. I'm playing with an open hand which leads to criticism. But, if you lose you better eat every word. You are forcing me to defend myself because you attacking me and not the game. What happened to not being into online shouting matches?? C'mon dude. IM A NEW MEMBER ON COVERS.COM. NEVER HAVE I VISITED THIS BEFORE THE LAST TWO WEEKS. Quit getting off on thinking I'm a "phony $3 bill," and focus on your waters. BOL Hypocrite...
0
I'm chomping my nails in anticipation of Sundays victory. Hey, all the smack you're talking Wizer could backfire. If I lose, I own it. I'm playing with an open hand which leads to criticism. But, if you lose you better eat every word. You are forcing me to defend myself because you attacking me and not the game. What happened to not being into online shouting matches?? C'mon dude. IM A NEW MEMBER ON COVERS.COM. NEVER HAVE I VISITED THIS BEFORE THE LAST TWO WEEKS. Quit getting off on thinking I'm a "phony $3 bill," and focus on your waters. BOL Hypocrite...
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.. I have some property for sale down in Florida if you're interested. Don't worry...its not any property on a sink hole. I have the documentation
Nice system you have. It must be comforting having math to rely on to form your opinions. Alas, all I have to work with is that human/psychological/emotional factor you mentioned at the end. I think Aldon Smith will give them a big boost (something those numbers can't account for). Of course, the Giants will also get a boost with the return of Jennings. Anyway, hate seeing you against my Niners (as well as LC) but I got Harbaugh, revenge and proving the critics wrong (all intangibles) going for me, which I hope will be enough. Good luck, and I like the Chiefs pick as well as the Saints. 
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