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#1
YTD: 14-8 ATS
I bet these 4 earlier in the week and it's safe to say I won't be putting this "grabbing good lines" report card on my fridge this week.
Pittsburgh -3.5
Good spot for the Steelers here. The bye really came at a good time for this team as they are now the healthiest they have been all year with Harrison, Polamalu and Mendenhall all back. Their defense was shredded by the Raiders in their last game and with key players back and two weeks to prepare I think Lebeau will have these guys playing very well. This is the kind of game where they get back to clogging up the run game and forcing teams to throw it and obviously that is not a good thing for Philly. The Eagles were highly praised for their balance on offense last week but it's a near lock that they will run McCoy about 14 times and have Vick throw 50+. Vick couldn't read the Cardinals blitzing defense on the road how is he going to read the Steelers aggressive blitzing defense that is rested and looking to beat someone up after giving up 34 to Oakland?
The Eagles have a good defense but they are at a slight matchup disadvantage here. Their corners are big and physical and do better matching up against bigger receivers where they can play bump and run and press coverage. Pittsburgh's plethora of receivers are all small, very quick/shifty type players who should be able to find some plays around the bigger corners of the Eagles. And we all know Philly's safeties are still crap. Ben is the best pump faker the league has ever seen and there should be a couple of plays where he's got those guys looking completely foolish.
Tennessee +5
For the 4th time already this year I'll be involved in a Titans game. I may be the only one left but I still don't think they are THAT bad. I've said it numerous times but they've got some solid talent on this club and the good news is Chris Johnson finally got going last week against a great Texans defense. He was solid all game too and didn't just bust one long run to boost his stats as his longest rush was only 19 yards, he was consistently ripping off solid yardage. That game was closer than the score indicated last week. They were only down 7 at halftime before Hasselbeck threw 2 Pick 6's and lost a fumble to blow the game open in the 2nd half. This team is only -0.1 net YPP.
Minnesota is a nice looking young team but I'm not sure they are ready to be a medium sized favorite yet. They don't have a blowout type of offense and are more of a grind it out team. They are also off two very physical games with the Niners and in getting a huge division road win over the Lions. I'm not sure this is the spot where a young team not familiar with winning comes out and plays their A game against what is seen as a much lesser team.
Cleveland +10 (-125)
If it ain't broke don't fix it. This is the kind of game the Giants always play like crap in. They can talk all they want about coming out and taking care of business but when they say the same thing time after time in these situations and still play like garbage then how much are their words really worth? Not to mention this is a pretty big sandwich game after a very tough division road loss to the Eagles and then having to play @SF next week in another huge game. Are they really going to get up and beat the crap out of the worst team in the league in this spot? Would you be excited if you were a Giant here to kill Cleveland or would you just be looking to get the W and avoid getting injured again before San Fran comes at you physically next week? Let's not forget just how banged up this Giants team is right now either. Are they good enough to beat anybody by more than 10 right now? Browns may be a little under the radar right now at 2-1-1 ATS and have had some extra days to work on things.
New Orleans -3 (-125)
No real elaborate writeup for this game. I just think the Saints show up in this one with some pride more than anything. They lost a real tough one last week and normally that's a negative but the fact they are still winless, playing a 3-1 team, and at home on SNF negates that IMO. Brees actually started looking like himself last week and if he's on the Saints will score. I can't say much about the Saints defense but I'm not really in love with the Chargers offense at this point either. Very misleading score for them last week, KC had 6 turnovers and the game was over almost before it started. This Chargers team has a history of looking pretty awful when they don't play well. SD also hosts Denver at home on MNF next week. I know they won't really be looking past the Saints here but would a loss really kill them? If you polled all 53 Chargers players I bet all of them would say next week's game is far, far more important.
I really like the card this week. Looking at 7-8 plays.
I bet these 4 earlier in the week and it's safe to say I won't be putting this "grabbing good lines" report card on my fridge this week.
Pittsburgh -3.5
Good spot for the Steelers here. The bye really came at a good time for this team as they are now the healthiest they have been all year with Harrison, Polamalu and Mendenhall all back. Their defense was shredded by the Raiders in their last game and with key players back and two weeks to prepare I think Lebeau will have these guys playing very well. This is the kind of game where they get back to clogging up the run game and forcing teams to throw it and obviously that is not a good thing for Philly. The Eagles were highly praised for their balance on offense last week but it's a near lock that they will run McCoy about 14 times and have Vick throw 50+. Vick couldn't read the Cardinals blitzing defense on the road how is he going to read the Steelers aggressive blitzing defense that is rested and looking to beat someone up after giving up 34 to Oakland?
The Eagles have a good defense but they are at a slight matchup disadvantage here. Their corners are big and physical and do better matching up against bigger receivers where they can play bump and run and press coverage. Pittsburgh's plethora of receivers are all small, very quick/shifty type players who should be able to find some plays around the bigger corners of the Eagles. And we all know Philly's safeties are still crap. Ben is the best pump faker the league has ever seen and there should be a couple of plays where he's got those guys looking completely foolish.
Tennessee +5
For the 4th time already this year I'll be involved in a Titans game. I may be the only one left but I still don't think they are THAT bad. I've said it numerous times but they've got some solid talent on this club and the good news is Chris Johnson finally got going last week against a great Texans defense. He was solid all game too and didn't just bust one long run to boost his stats as his longest rush was only 19 yards, he was consistently ripping off solid yardage. That game was closer than the score indicated last week. They were only down 7 at halftime before Hasselbeck threw 2 Pick 6's and lost a fumble to blow the game open in the 2nd half. This team is only -0.1 net YPP.
Minnesota is a nice looking young team but I'm not sure they are ready to be a medium sized favorite yet. They don't have a blowout type of offense and are more of a grind it out team. They are also off two very physical games with the Niners and in getting a huge division road win over the Lions. I'm not sure this is the spot where a young team not familiar with winning comes out and plays their A game against what is seen as a much lesser team.
Cleveland +10 (-125)
If it ain't broke don't fix it. This is the kind of game the Giants always play like crap in. They can talk all they want about coming out and taking care of business but when they say the same thing time after time in these situations and still play like garbage then how much are their words really worth? Not to mention this is a pretty big sandwich game after a very tough division road loss to the Eagles and then having to play @SF next week in another huge game. Are they really going to get up and beat the crap out of the worst team in the league in this spot? Would you be excited if you were a Giant here to kill Cleveland or would you just be looking to get the W and avoid getting injured again before San Fran comes at you physically next week? Let's not forget just how banged up this Giants team is right now either. Are they good enough to beat anybody by more than 10 right now? Browns may be a little under the radar right now at 2-1-1 ATS and have had some extra days to work on things.
New Orleans -3 (-125)
No real elaborate writeup for this game. I just think the Saints show up in this one with some pride more than anything. They lost a real tough one last week and normally that's a negative but the fact they are still winless, playing a 3-1 team, and at home on SNF negates that IMO. Brees actually started looking like himself last week and if he's on the Saints will score. I can't say much about the Saints defense but I'm not really in love with the Chargers offense at this point either. Very misleading score for them last week, KC had 6 turnovers and the game was over almost before it started. This Chargers team has a history of looking pretty awful when they don't play well. SD also hosts Denver at home on MNF next week. I know they won't really be looking past the Saints here but would a loss really kill them? If you polled all 53 Chargers players I bet all of them would say next week's game is far, far more important.
I really like the card this week. Looking at 7-8 plays.
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