NFL WEEK 6 ........................2024

Good luck.  I am sure you'll grab a lofty number after all the Jayden Daniels Rookie of the Year chatter.

I have them at 31 .. giving up 280 per Game .. only Jacksonville is worse 

Yep .............

My play is more a fade on an unsustainable level of play by Wash offense and not a play on Ravens or their defense.

Stats will show another side I agree with that but teams can go through very strong moments over a small number of games that they will not sustain.

The old Vegas adage, teams are not as good as they look when winning nor as bad as the look when losing the truth is somewhere  in the middle will most likely get proven correct on this Wash team and offense.

QB already regressed his completion % big time last game.

Interesting I just watch video with Steve Fezzik, he said he adjusted Wash in power  ratings up to 10th about where I think they should end up in pts per plays margin.

Wash offense scored 38, 42, 34 pts past 3 games. That is a peak performance level of play, they are not going to ave 38 pts per game.

That'd be historically great.

When teams fall from a peak they can fall hard and far.

These are the kind of spots where many will believe the league is fixed but looking back historically this is what one will find.

Granted I do agree it isn't easy to identify the exact  game this happens but it almost certainly is. Probabilities favor it to happen.

That is why I'd take Wash TT under.

I like to look at which team with a very good record ranks the lowest in yds per pt margin and pts per plays margin.

In other words not efficient  scoring or stopping opps from scoring based on yards gained or plays run.

That 4-1 team at this point is the .............Texans

Yards per pts margin they rank an absolute dreadful 31st in the league.

Pts per plays ......25th

Pathetic for a 4-1 team.

Last year they had the 2cd most close wins and are doing that again with all 4 wins being close wins.

This reminds me of the Eagles last year. The year before they had some of the most close wins of any team

They opened the next year which was last year like 10-1 while repeating those close wins but then the sky fell on them, they couldn't win a game to save their lives.

Close wins are not repeatable on average over time.  There can be exception but I doubt Texans will be.

They play the Pats this week, should be an easy win for them, we'll  see if the can win by more then a close 1 score game.

Pats don't fit any regression indicators but they are getting close to a play on team.

That along with Texans  pathetic efficiency makes this game pretty interesting to me.

Another interesting  game this week Gmen VS Bengals.

Bengals 1-4 look pretty bad especially  the defense.

And Gmen playing at least decent as of late winning 2 of last 3 with 1 close loss.

But when we check in with yards per pts and pts per plays we find this ..............

Yards per pts margin ...

Bengals 15th

Gmen 27th

Pts per plays margin.....

Bengals 16th

Gmen 24th

Even if we look only at Gmen past 3 games, 2 wins and 1 close loss, they have still been outplayed by those 3 opps in both metrics and the Bengals would rank better as a 1-4 team.

I don't see how Gmen could be a good team worth backing.

When we look at other surprise teams they rate pretty well like Wash, Denver and Bears I doubt Giants will join them as a surprise team.

@theclaw

 I can’t understand why anyone is on NYG this week. Everything i look at tells me that Cincy is better than their record shows and that giants look exactly the way they always look. My prediction is that Cincy wins 9-10 games this season and sneaks into the playoffs. If the line was -3 on this game it would be one of my biggest plays of the season.

@brn2loslive2win

 Have you seen bengals defense. Danny blind dimes can definitely score on this defense. He scored on cowboys defense that’s 3x better than bengals defense 

Plus the weaker BAL's DEF has been, the higher WAS's TT will be.

claw:

Close wins are not repeatable on average over time. There can be exception but I doubt Texans will be.

Respectfully disagree. Their success rate in close games reflects imho  an aspect often overlooked, that is,

an attitude by the coaching staff. With their new sensational qb and a no nonsense HC ,this attitude has become their

personality. Again 4 of their 5 games this year displays that personality,so maybe they WILL BE THE EXCEPTION.

It was this very important factor that made up my mind for significant Futures wagers on HOUSTON.

Having said that, my alpha WR is on IR and I am at risk, What's new?  ;-).............................gl this week

It's still young in the season.

The regression would take toll after the season going to the second half.

Anyway thanks to your, Claw, digged up.

Good luck to everybody. 

I'm  talking about over time it has been proven that teams cannot repeat close wins. Many web sites have posted evidence of this as well as I have seen it since following this. The Texans time is coming.

Teams that do well in the playoffs win by bigger margins hence their ave margin of victory is mostly one of the better in the league.

Point margin is a better indicator then a teams  record in the playoffs because big wins are better indicators then winning close games regardless of more wins.

Some teams can have many close wins and do well in playoffs but they have many big wins mixed in, Texans at this point have no big wins.

But it is early and they could end up with big wins that is what makes this game VS Pats so interesting  because if they can't get a big win here when could they ?

 ......... they very well could come back and have a decent shot to make playoffs

GL  on your plays @theclaw 

Yes it is terrible but Bengals much better overall. Yards per pts is combination of offense and defense so overall Bengals clearly better and considering Giants won 2 of last 3 losing only a close game the Bengals at 1-4 rate better the Giants at 2-1 in those 3 games. That's crazy...............

 ...................

Same to you Mac..........

Wash TT UNDER 21.5 (-105) --- .525 units to win .5 units

tA(YPPT)>oA(YPPT) and season=2024

so far 30-31 ats

Are your only plays the ravens and Washington TT under?

Appreciate the work jowchoo but not sure what it is . Something to do with yds per pts,  team  has the better yards per pts then opp is 30-31 ATS ?

Couple of things I am looking at, one is does the yards per point fit the record, not for the Gaints. Outplayed in past 3 games 2-1 record. It shows weakness in those wins.

Many times the yards per pts not only fits the record but is inflated in that case I'd look more to fade the better team.

And by the same measure a poor record can show the team is much better then the record this is the case with Bengals.

Bengals sit in middle of the league not at the bottom with 1-4  record which is what one would expect them to be at the bottom if they were truly not very good.

Look at Texans 4-1 but 31st in yds per pts, very telling Stat.

Appreciate the conversation jowchoo.............l

More to come............

I have 3 plays was kind of on the borderline with, needed more time to look into them.

But feel now they are worth at least a half unit.

2 very near BF fades playing on too high a level and since I'd consider them both mediocre teams being very close does work for these teams.

Since mediocre teams cannot play at such an high level to reach a fade status.

Chargers -3 (-105) over Broncos--- .525 units to win .5 units

Bengals -3.5  over Giants --- .55 units to win .5 units

And another play on our top 3 biggest performers  week 1 off a 10 win season .........

Steelers -3 (-120) over Raiders --- .6 units to win .5 units

Steelers off 2 ATS losses, these teams all end with winning ATS records by season end. Teams like the Steelers who won't be big favorites do tend to finish with the best ATS records.

We already hit with this last thursday night with 9ers, 9ers though having had past success will be bigger favorites which makes it more difficult to end with a very nice ATS record.

We already passed up some ATS losses for both the Steelers and 9ers so this gives us a big advantage.