NFL WEEK 6 ........................2024

Lions put in the biggest performance so far this season in PR II, a Monster almost 40 rating.

They also had the best pts per plays this week moving up I think to 2cd or 3rd.

Texans did have the 2cd or 3rd  best moving up to 19th. This is exactly what they needed to do, we are 6 weeks in they need to show some l8fe or may not be good come playoff time.

Some great games next week, too bad Lions losing their superstar defensive player. Brutal loss for them.

Lions are a near fade, I was planning on possibly fading Vikes 1 more game but now I will pass.

Might be a good spot to fade the Winner.

Not surprised to see Bills beat the Jets, so many on you tube were on Jets I didn't agree with that play.

Allen hasn't lost 3 SU in a row. He was 5-1 ATS, 6-0 SU going into that game. Not a large sample but he is very good off 1 SU loss.

Jets did screw up alot of things but that only off-set the lucky hail Mary pass.

Bills outplayed the Jets according  to PR II by much more then 3 pts.

Allen had like a 128 QBPR to Arod 99. Allen had much better completion %, better ave per pass, had no INT's.

Bills also win rushing battle and the TO battle all that equates to.much more then a 3 pt win.

Season --- 13-8, won 2.22 units

Feel pretty good, pretty fortunate to have a winning record at this point considering many good cappers on you tube have losing records so far this season. One guy reported having his worst week ever I think was 2 weeks ago.

I saw a video with Steve Fezzik, he is down 15 units at this point. He really likes teasers with Steelers this week VS Jets. He is wheeling many teasers with the Steelers. If they dont cover the teaser he is getting a not so good week.

I would lean Steelers +1.5 over the Jets myself.

Great week.  Congratulations.

This query comes close to that 43% figure, but the QRs (Query Results) are not strong enough for me personally to take action on this in isolation.  It is certainly worth considering overall because of the sample size.

tA(ats margin) > 4.99 and WP < 50

SU:  55-79 (-2.6, 41.0%)

ATS:  58-71-5 (-1.0, 45.0%)

That average ATS margin of only -1.0 points is not exactly enticing.  Fading those teams this season have gone 2-1 ATS.  The most recent bet (a winner) was fading NO vs TB.  NO was a Week 1 powerhouse, so this conflicts somewhat with your research.  I hope you can reconcile that.

The best teams to fade are the home favorites.  ATS:  17-26-0 (-4.0, 39.5%)

@theclaw

 I haven't done any handicapping on the NYJ-PIT game, but I certainly align with your PIT lean.  I'd rather fade the hype of the Adams trade.

..........  great work dob, but over how many games ? Is that just 1 game ? Or at any point of games, a teams reaches 5 pts over the spread ?

"tA" = team average for the current season.

For just the previous game (p = previous game), the query the way I would compose it is:

p:ats margin > 4.7 and WP < 50   That query is absolutely worthless.  It is 889-877-49 ATS.