Pending plays werk 6 ..................
Ravens -6.5 over Wash - 1.1 units
Wash TT Under 21.5 (-105) .... .525 units
Chargers -3 (-105) over Broncos --- .525 units
Bengals -3.5 over Giants --- .55 units
Steelers -3 (-120) over Raiders--- .6 units
Thurs night ..............1-0, won. 5 units
Wow, Bears are rolling the Jags, incredible great job by Bears.
If this keeps up they will be close to a fade next werk.
Interesting about this game. The line after last week's games had Bears as the favorite but then the line was moved to Jags as the favorite, when this happens, the dog moving to the favorite it is bad news for that team.
I saw many on you tube liking the Jags, maybe that was part of the reason people were coming in on the Jags pushing them to the favorite.
Guys I've followed on you tube who have done well are not doing so well this season.
Dogs have done very well so far this season
I think that could end today, I am on 5 favorites with one of them, the 9ers already winning ATS.
My info supports this, so might be at least for 1 week the favorites having their day in the sun. Or it could be the dogs regressing back to normal or maybe my info will flat-out be wrong.
I wanted to post this earlier but didn't get around to it.
We'll see.
As of now Ravens mauling Wash.
165 yards to 34
10 1st downs to 2
Lamar ave per pass 11.5 to Daniels 3.6
Including sacks, Lamar 9.6 to Daniels 1.8 .....ouch.
Lamar with 1 INT, Daniel's 0
Looks like Wash pts off that Lamar INT, they haven't moved the ball much to score at this point.
But still early, looks at this point like Wash offense is definitely regressing.
interesting the Texans, they get out to a quick 14-0 lead but since then all their inefficiencies are showing through.
Pass a little behind in the ebdzone gets bobbled and INT. Dropped snap. Just all-around not very good play.
Might be Texans and the QB had early success and now being a young team are getting a little to giddy about themselves.
I had the Texans regressing this season based on close wins and expected wins. I think next year might be the better year for them as they won't come in with a much expectations.
But still very early in the season, They have time to play better, more efficient on the season and in this game. Just something to think about as this 2cd half plays- out.
If they don't do it today the evidence continues to mount.
Wow, Saints roll back down 17-0 and take a 27-24 lead.
Rookie back-up Rattler is out-playing Baker, completing 69 % for 8.8 Ave per pass, he was ave 10.
Saint's were a week 1 top 3 biggest performers but not off a 10 win season. They were off 3ATS losses, I did give some consideration to playing them.
Backups making their 1st start about 54-58%.
Teams not off 10 win season can and have done very well but not as consistent as the better teams off 10 win seasons.
You really do have a hard on for Houston, fuck they could win 60 to nil and there would still be something wrong with their result. I'LL just take the money....:-)
Great call. Faves cleaned up big yesterday. Road faves were 8-0 going into MNF. Do the Bills keep it perfect?
Hey Claw, do you have numbers to back this up? The reason I ask is that I've noted a similar tendency in European soccer leagues, but in the other direction...when the shift in odds takes a favorite of, say, 1.96 to a dog of 2.08, crossing the threshold of even money is the sign to bet against the line move.
Yes, I have the history would have to find it.
I see guys post this online.
Fav went 11-3 was only a matter of time before this happened.................
Week --- 5-1, won 2.97 units
Wash hung in pretty good VS Ravens, Daniels played very well, NO TO'S. I thought regressing he'd have at least 1 INT.
Wash drops out if the top 10 after a big move up to 5th going to 12th in plays per pts margin after loss to Ravens.
Wash did win the yards per pt metric as Ravens with 1 INT, to over-come TO'S the better teams need to outgain opps by alot of yards, exactly what Ravens did to not only win but get the cover while losing the TO battle.
Bears go into regression mode after big win. With a bye next week.
I think they play Wash off the bye. Interesting the 2 rookies playing each other. Daniels the better QB, not really that close. Caleb below ave Passer Rating.
Wash plays the pathetic Panthers next week, I'd be careful backing Wash this game with the Bears on deck and knowing they will be rested off a bye Wash may come up very flat especially seeing how much they put into the Ravens game.
No play for me put I would not take Wash if you think you might be getting a easy win you might just be in for a big surprise.
Teams do lose 2 straight ATS off a BF fade and this seems to be a good spot for that to happen.
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