NFL Week 9

YTD: 25-17 ATS


Indianapolis +2.5

What can I say I just have a big hard on for Luck and I'm going back to the well again this week. This kid is a stud I don't care what the overall numbers say. Going back to Stanford it was evident Luck played his best under pressure and when he was needed to pull through. He came back in the USC game late then won in OT and in the Fiesta Bowl he had them in position to win twice after being down but the kicker let him down. So far in his NFL career the Colts have needed Luck to win them the game 4 times in the 4th quarter of a tie game or trailing by 1 score. In Week 2 after the Vikings tied the game Luck marched the offense down the field in exactly 23 seconds for a GW FG. In Week 3 the Colts were trailing again late when Luck marched them down for a go ahead kick with under a minute left. They only lost that game on a relatively flukey long TD pass with about 40 seconds left. In Week 5 he brought them from way back to beat the Packers late with the game on the line. Last week they needed a late TD to force OT and not only does he lead them to that but then on the GW drive in OT as well. That's 4 times this year the game has been tied or Indy down a score late and they scored every time and should have went 4-0.

I know he's struggled early in games and I know I'm focusing exclusively on him here but in the NFL when you have a money QB who can win games late and you've got a guy the team completely believes in you've got a hell of a lot. I said before the year this kid was a Top 10 QB right now and that may still sound crazy but I still believe it. ESPN has a stat called Total QBR which essentially measures the efficiency of QB's with context (accounting for score, down and distance, time of game, etc). Luck is 7th in the league in Total QBR just 0.1 points back of Aaron Rodgers. The six guys ahead of him consist of Matt Ryan and five guys who have combined to play in 13 Super Bowls and have 9 rings. Not bad company.

Miami is a good team as a dog but I'm not buying them as road favs. Young teams that are rarely favored usually do pretty bad when they are expected to win. The Colts worse net yardage game this game has been -72 yards, meanwhile the Dolphins have been outgained by almost 400 yards in their last 2 games combined. The Colts are becoming a little trendy in the mainstream and the danger exists of buying high but I don't think we are quite at that point yet. For one thing Miami is trending and playing well also and Indy are still home dogs. Indy also should be 4-0 at home this year with the exception of the fluky long Jags TD. The days of getting the Colts as home dogs will soon be coming to end. Miami better hope they are up by more than a TD late in this one because if they aren't they won't win.


Carolina +3.5

For the third week in a row I'm fading a bad team that has no business laying over a FG to anybody. These are two evenly matched teams in this situation IMO. Washington has already lost both times they've been favored and they sport a defense that can't stop a thing. Carolina is bad but they aren't Jacksonville or Kansas City bad. They are right there most weeks but seem to come up a couple of plays short. Those types of things can generally happen against playoff type teams in the Bears, Cowboys, Seahawks, and Falcons who they have faced recently. Washington does not belong on that list and they should be able to move the ball well here. The Panthers defense is quietly improving as well. They are Top 10 in sack % and middle of the pack in YPP. They have the better defense in this one and although the Skins offense has been better on paper so far I think this is a bit of a statement game for Cam with everyone already saying RG3 is better than him. More importantly he faces a defense where one mistake won't kill him this week unlike the Bears, Cowboys, and Seahawks. Danger of the Panthers throwing in the towel on the year after some tough losses but I don't think we are quite at that point yet in what is a very winnable game.


Dallas +4

I'm removing the Boys from my unplayable list for one week (god help me). These are the kinds of games where Dallas can just let loose and play. They choke often in games they are expected to win but as dogs they usually play well and as dogs of over 3 points (theoretically against better teams) they are 8-1 ATS with this group over the last 3+ years with the only loss being the "We want Wade fired" game @ GB. Their season is essentially on the line in this one and I expect the vets to pick up the team this week and have them going. I like going with veteran clubs in these spots where their backs are against the wall and there is a lot on the line. The Boys play in big games all the time so they won't be intimated by the spot there are in either.

The Falcons sport a nifty 7-0 record and a great looking passing offense however there are several red flags. They can no longer run the ball nearly as effectively as they have in the past which is in part because their offensive line really isn't that good (24th in run blocking, 15th in sack %). The reason the Falcons have not done well in the playoffs is because they have always had a soft defense and this year is no exception.  Atlanta is 23rd in YPP, 24th in opp 3rd down %, and 28th in red zone defense despite playing one team with a winning record. Those defensive numbers are just not good enough and they are almost exactly the same as each of the last two seasons. So despite all these sexy weapons on offense the reality is Atlanta is still the same phony they've always been. The Cowboys have the better defense, are in the better spot, and need the game more. That's enough.

May add a couple more. GL gents.

Love both Dallas and Car this week. Atl is being overvalued and even if the line doesn't truly reflect that(at the moment) with a measly +4 going against a team who's undefeated, I still think the points will be more than enough to cover the spread. Dallas put themselves in a hole last week, a characteristic that has been associated with them whenever they are expected to win.

As for Car, this team is just desperate for a win and they have gotten close to winning in the vast majority of their games this year. If not for a botched play, or a dropped pass, or just sheer dumb luck going against them, this team could easily have 2 wins more on their record. Also, I expect to Cam to come out with the intent to prove that RG3 is not any better than him.

Also, on the Giants this week. Steelers are once again being overvalued due to their 2-game win streak. Not to mention, the Giants offense won't be as poor as last Sunday's. If there's a coach that will bring out more out of his players in spite of win, it's Coughlin. I'm just troubled by the fact that the G-Men play so differently at home than they do on the road. But as far as value and angles go, I'd take the Giants.

Would like to hear your thoughts on this game.

As always, best of luck.

Like the Giants a lot this week. 95% sure I'll be on them but the line should only improve. All the picks on the forums so far have been on this fake Pittsburgh team off two wins over crap teams. Big perception vs reality game here. I already wrote a lot on this game in another thread, I'll copy and paste it if/when I pull the trigger.

Good thoughts on the games. I thought about the Carolina may be deflated angle a little more but let's look at Washington. Two weeks ago this team was legitimately being talked about as a playoff team. But since they lost a real tough game to the Giants and shot themselves in the foot against Pittsburgh to sit at 3-5. The NFC is really good this year and it's going to take 10 wins to get a wildcard meaning that Washington needs to go 7-1 to get there. They still have to play the Giants again, Eagles twice, Cowboys twice, and Ravens. They aren't going 7-1, their playoff hopes are done after those two losses and they know it. Washington could be just as deflated as Carolina in this one.

gl

Good luck pal!

like cowboys, very contrarian - can easily see them losing by 3 or 4

Quality reading material.

Best of Luck 

love the picks...

regarding the giants, aren't they notorious for laying an egg in games like this when they are at home?

Colts, Panthers, Boyz'. 2, if not all 3, will win outright. You're right, MIA has no business being favored O.T.R. at this point. And Andrew Luck is going to be a special player. He's not too shabby right now. An outright win for the Colts.

Sooner or later CAR will get that 1 break that will propel them to their 2nd win. I think Cam will take this matchup with RGIII  a bit personal, and I like that too.

As for Dallas, hard to justify playing them when there is such a huge disparity in TO differential. I would normally not touch a turnover prone team like Dallas, but this is a season make or break game for them. Their defense has played well, they were very good against the high powered Giants last week. Sometimes easier to focus O.T.R. than at home, and I believe they will get their T.O. problem under control this week and keep this game close. It seems the oddsmakers agree. Hear me Mr. Romo?  

Good Luck Andarmac!

Kansas City/San Diego OVER 40.5

Well I went against the big line move on MNF and got burned but I'll do the same here as this line has dropped from 44 to 40.5 and crossed a few key totals numbers.

San Diego's offense has thrown together two real dog games this season but in their other games they have averaged 27 points a game with 4 of the 5 games going Over the number. I tend to believe the offense does well here because of a number of reasons. The biggest is perhaps the fact the Chiefs defense is terrible. San Diego is also off an embarrassing offensive output last week although it was cold and rainy and it seemed to really affect SD with dropped passes and fumbles. This is also a do or die game for them with jobs on the line. If they don't score tonight there is probably going to be changes.

Kansas City's O has stunk the joint out the last three games but let's remember their starting QB got injured in two of those games and Brady Quinn played the other. When Cassel was entrenched as the starter for the first few weeks the Chiefs actually moved the ball but turnovers killed them. They scored over 20 points in 3 of the 4 games while piling up yardage totals of 349, 422, 510, and 393. They also had 25, 25, 27, and 22 first downs in those games. They've got some stability at QB again with a guy in Cassel who needs a big game to secure his starting role. KC still has some playmakers and as the first 4 games show they can move the ball if they don't cough it up 3+ times a game. Both defenses are below average in rushing the passer and who have two RB's who are capable of big plays every time they touch the ball.

bol...great points..on dallas, carolina..also like giants.

gl

Got completely bailed out tonight. Nice to be on the plus side of a suck out though, can't complain. 2 defensive TD's and a garbage time TD. That is exactly the reason why I don't bet Unders in football anymore.

crazy you won that over

ANdy, thoughts on tenn and oak?

I agree with the deflated angled. It troubles me a bit as teams that lose in a dramatic fashion the previous week play poorly, especially when it's on the road. But I think this may be the week where I would have to put an asterisk to that rule due to the fact that Carolina at this point is playing for respect and out of desperation.

I'm also considering playing the Ravens this week. I realize that it's a pretty square play but it's play that is sound on both situational and statistical perspectives. The Ravens have gotten the better of the Browns since the Browns came back to the NFL and the last outing was no different. The Ravens played down to Browns that week after that emotional win over the Pats yet they were still in a good position to actually cover the spread. The Ravens just came from their bye giving them two weeks to prepare and after that whipping they received from the Texans two weeks ago, I believe this will be their statement game. Lastly, the last time they met, Suggs was not in the line-up and I fully expect him to make a world difference for the ailing Ravens defense.

Atl is $ 1st half....Dallas always plays behind

I think you are spot on with the Ravens. Don't think I can lay it with them on the road against a scrappy Browns team though. GL.

I play about 90% dogs but even I can't make a case for the Titans this week at this number. I just don't see it. They are god awful. Last week was the 2nd time this year they didn't give up 30 points but they still gave up 457 yards and 30 1st downs! When I see an elite defense against a garbage one if I'm taking a short dog I need them to be in a great spot but I fail to see the spot. No one is selling high on the Bears either. Their offense has been bad the last two weeks and the whole team was terrible last week. Last week was their "no show" game, a veteran team isn't going to take two games off in a row especially considering how bad they were. Tenny can't rush anyone so Cutler and the o-line may be in for a breakout game. It could be agued the Bears have bigger fish to fry coming up but the number is still too low for me to look twice.

No advocating the Bears just saying I can't make a case for the Titans at all. If anyone has one I'd love to hear it.

Dogs have covered at such a ridiculous rate this year that I think we are finally starting to see some adjustment by the books. I'd bet my left nut if you blindly bet every fav over the 2nd half of the year you would be up. Chicago, Denver, and Baltimore should all be priced higher. Normally I'd look at the Bengals but it's just not enough points.

^ No feel for TB/OAK at all.

GL austin.

playin all these cept car....BOL

hey andy, good to see you doing well here this season

looking for some thoughts on the Minny @ Seat game this weekend

doesn't seem to be on anyones radar that much.