NFL Week 9

Luck is a beast anyone who bet Stanford or watched him last year and 2 years ago could see it in him.  He looked like a pro his senior year 

No doubt. RG3 is a nice player and can pile up as many fantasy stats as he wants but he's not half the player Luck is. The poise this kid has is unreal. Makes almost all the right decisions for a rookie. He can make all the throws in the pocket or under pressure. His numbers would have been even better today had T.Y. Hilton not dropped a 40+ yard TD in the endzone that hit him right in the hands. He has taken a 3-13 type of talent team and put them into playoff positioning.

As much as I love the kid I also love money. And this is a good time to sell Indy. They aren't good enough to be road favs. As awful as a bet as it appears I'm probably going to have to hold my nose and take the Jags on Thursday.

I agree with everything you said but don't sell them too quick. There will be opportunities to fade them but not against the hapless jags, the worst team in the NFL IMO. Against the pats they should be nice dogs but in a few weeks they are in Detroit I can see a 3 point spread in either direction and see the colts losing that one.

3-2 last week.

Real busy this week and won't be around after today so no need for a new thread. Here's what I've got for Week 10:


Jacksonville +3.5  -115

Are the Jags probably the worst team in the league? Yes. Is this still a good spot for them? Yes. Even with the man crush I have on Andrew Luck I know this is a tough spot. Not only are they off an emotional game but compounding matters is the fact that this is a short week. Add in that they have suddenly found themselves as the talk of the NFL and road favs has me thinking they lay an egg. Indy is taking care of business at home. That is what young teams that are improving do, they start consistently winning at home first. Their lone road win this year came in a good spot for them against a bad Titans team that had no business being favored. The Jags are bad too but the spot is completely different for Indianapolis. This time they are the ones in the bad spot on a short week and expected to win over an inferior team.

Somehow the Jags have lost all 4 home games by at least 17 points. Have to think the line value has shifted on their games now (or it soon will). As bad as they have looked the reality is if you had bet Jacksonville every game as a dog this year you would be up money. The offense may finally have some success this week because the Colts defense is putrid. They can't stop the run which may give the Jags a shot to get the ground game going. If the run game is going and the Jags don't get down big early I think that gives Gabbert some balance to work with. Mathis got banged up last week for Indy and they have already ruled out both starting CB's. This may finally be a breakout game for the Jags offense.


Tennessee +6

Yep, bad team that gave up 50 last week but I will take them here. From the Tennessee point of view all of these guys are playing for jobs this week. They knew they had no shot at the playoffs anyway so throw out any emotional letdown from that. They are professionals who should be plenty motivated to respond after perhaps the most embarrassing loss by anybody this season. Adding more fuel to the fire is that the owner ripped the team this week saying they were grossly outplayed and outcoached and that all aspects of the organization will be closely monitored. He was so pissed off last week that he left the stadium in the 3rd quarter. If the Titans care about their jobs they will show up this week.

Miami is better than Tennessee over the long haul but they just shouldn't be favored by this much over anyone. They are a grind it out type of team that chews clock, runs the ball, throws short and tend to play lower scoring games. That isn't conducive to blowing teams out. The real story here is Miami is not playing well at all. They have been outgained by over 100 yards in each of the last 3 weeks. Over that same 3 week span their combined net yardage is almost -550 and -1.33 YPP. Now they find themselves as the biggest favs they've been all year? I'm not buying that.


Houston +1

Taking the better team here at + money. The Bears have been dominate recently but let's step back and take a big picture look at things. First of all they have been feasting on turnovers. But most of that has come against weak teams or teams like the Lions and Cowboys that are poorly-coached and turnover prone. The Bears have faced the 30th ranked schedule in the league and for all intents and purposes have been beating up on the weak. The Texans are about as fundamentally sound as they come. They are well-coached and won't usually beat themselves up (except against GB, more on this later). The Texans have only turned the ball over 7 times all season so it would seem that the Bears huge turnover advantage in every game will be greatly diminished here.

The elephant in the room for the Bears is that despite their record the offense is still crap. Even with Marshall this season Cutler is on the EXACT same pace he's always been. Completing just under 60% of his passes with an INT per game and QB rating of 85. His numbers are frightening similar to every other year of his career. He's a very average NFL QB and that's it. Chicago has a large matchup disadvantage with their offensive line against the Texans front. Houston is deep and skilled on that unit while the Bears o-line is god awful at pass blocking. That unit gives up more sacks per dropback than Arizona that's how bad they are (dead last in the league).

The Texans have a better run defense. They allow a lower completion percentage and fewer YPA. They have a better QB. They have a far better offensive line and despite the stats saying the Bears have a more efficient run game thus far I don't think there are many in NFL circles that would take Chicago's run game over Houston's. All those numbers have also come against a better opposition as mentioned before the Bears have played one of the softest schedules in the league ranking 30th. But I feel there is also a situational angle. The last time we saw the Texans on national TV against an elite team they were thoroughly pounded from start to finish, at home no less, against the Packers. They looked a little raw and not ready for the stage they were on with some real dumb mistakes and penalties. The thing is good teams learn quickly from those experiences and I don't need to tell anyone that Houston is a good team. Houston is looking for some redemption and a statement game on national TV against a good team after the Packers disaster, and as the better team catching + money I think they get it.


GL this week Gents.

As always, the best of luck to you pal! Don't be a stranger on the nba forum the rest of the week!

andarmac99: great write ups

Situationally, this spot screams out for a play on JAX especially considering it's a short week and the Colts have to go on the road with a very young team. All trends point to playing the TNF home team and the UNDER in this situation. I can see RGIII's numbers falling off in the second half of the season as teams start to tear apart game film but I'm not sure this holds true for the other rookie phenom - Luck.  Still, JAX has been abysmal at home this year getting blown out in all four games. I guess we can all remember that primetime performance last year when JAX beat the RAVENS on MNF. Mularkey, was the OC in ATLANTA and he ran a vanilla offense considering the weapons he had at his disposal. I don't see much of a change this year with the JAGS as he's the kind of guy who will depend on the power run game. I can't say I'm thrilled with INDY defense. They're not that physical so maybe JAX can grind away. We will see.

I think in 2009 NE put up 59 on Tennessee and the Titans came back the next week and bet JAX 30-13 at home. I fed the scenario below into a database and it came back ATS 6-3-1, not much of a sample size but it's heading in the right direction.

QUERY: Teams that allow more than 50 points and lose by 28 points and are getting 6 or more points the next week.

Really enjoyed reading your HOU-CHI write up. Keep up the good work and good luck with your selections.