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NFL WEEK 9....................................................

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Posted: #26
Claw, I know what the BF is, but could you explain what the 60% play is.  Thanks for all your work, and sharing your knowledge.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

BOUNCE FACTOR..................3-2 ATS, won 9 units

Falcons -2.5 over Panthers --- 11 units to win 10 units...............best bet play

Bucs over Saints --- 5.5 units

We wait out the line and try to get +7, 6.5 now, we missed +7.5 earlier in the week, son of a gun.

We pay it to 7 if needed but first let's wait it out.



BOUNCE FACTOR --- 3-4 ATS, lost 7.5 units

We have 3 plays this week, Bucs, Broncos, and fade the Rams.

We should bounce back strong this week, all 3 plays will be in the contest.
 
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Posted: #28
Rams are no. 1 at FO power ratings and no.1 at CHFF as well with Jags 4th at both.

FO has Steelers 2cd and Eagles 3rd.

Of course Rams off back to back big blowout wins sure does help a team move up but since it is not sustainable they will likely fall back some,  either this week or next.

And this is why many times we see teams move up to no.1 only to lose or fail to cover shortly after.

With only a very small sample size of games some teams will be going through their best run of the season which may propel them to no.1 but once a larger sample size of games is added in which the team does not play as well they no longer are close to no.1.

Some teams best runs come in the first few games, some come in middle of the season and some at the end of the season, KC is a good example of a team's best run coming in the first part of season. They looked like world-beaters.

A true no.1 team will sustain very good play over the entire season for the most part and untill most of the games are in the books we really can not decide who that team might be, but that team will make itself know by how it plays and continues to play for the most part each week.
 
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by rrnoble:

Claw, I know what the BF is, but could you explain what the 60% play is.  Thanks for all your work, and sharing your knowledge.

The 60% method  is based on teams play on the field using stats that have high correlation to winning games and high predictive value such as ave per pass att.

It assigns a point value to each key stat and then adds or subtracts the various key stats to reach a final score based on play on the field. 

When a team's play on the field  out-scores the actual margin in the game by 8.5 points we have a play the next week.

I use 2 different power ratings and when either one is off by 8.5 points we have a play. I know 8.5 pts is the right number because I charted such things for a number of years to determine that 8.5 was the right number.

For example, the Colts won 20-14 by 6 pts but according to the method the Colts dominated ave per pass att and QBPR and should of won the game by 19.9 pts, so in other words they are playing far better then the final score tells us.

And the TO battle was even, TO can nuetralize good play to some degree , had the Texans won the TO battle that might be different, but dominating key stats then going even in TO the Colts should of won big.
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