NFL WEEK 9 ..........................2024

Great spot to fade Lions this week. BF fade playing on a high u sustainable  level of play and they are off the 2 largest win margins in past 3 games along with their 2 largest pts scored in those  games both ridiculous high margins of victory and pts scored.

They meet the regression method I talked about last week I saw online, teams off 4 straight wins and 4 straight games scoring 30 pts or better. Lions scored 40 or more in 3 of 4.

And they meet my new BF II regression method, a completely different regression method using different info.

That's 3 regression  methods fading Lions.

Steve Fezzik has a fade as well.

Packers +3.5 (-115) over Li9ns --- 1.15 units

Bator method fade on Bills. Plus a BF fade on the Bills playing on a high unsustainable level of play.

Interesting  Bills were already a Bator fade and the method won when Bills were blown-out by Ravens.

Dolphins +6.5 (-115) over Bills --- 1.15 units

Giants +3.5 (-115) over Wash --- 1.15 units

BF fade on Wash.

Good luck this week claw.

@garbagetime

On all of these..............................gl

.........................

Thanks ...................

Other system ............

Falcons -2.5 over Boys

@theclaw

BOL Claw

Hey claw wondering what BF stands for? Thanks 

 theclaw

@theclaw

Good luck Claw.  

Perhaps of interest,  this will be Lions first game played outside this season.  Lions 3-2 SU last season in games played outside.

Bounce Factor, a regression method. Identifies teams playing on very high unsustainable levels of play

@Supat125............

@Chauster............

@insatiable............

@D-Town...............

Good info. Could be a factor especially in GB...............

@theclaw

 Good work and GL on your plays 

Thanks .................

Other method ............ 1-1 last week . With only 1 losing week thus far. Will get season results at some point 

Falcons -2.5 over Boys

Play on 9ers but on a bye. Play on 9ers over Bucs next week.

Good luck.

You do realize Love may not play .. I like packers in this spot but not if love dosent play 

Yes he may be out. If he does play the line will move for sure giving me a great line. 

It is more about the Lions regressing then their opp.

If Lions do win and cover I'll be coming much larger play next week.

I have uncovered a new bounce factor I will call BF II.

I have followed this in the past but didn't really know how to set the parameters for the method. What level of extreme play would be needed for teams to regress ?

But This season I think I have a much better understanding of these parameters.

This week there are 2 plays. 1 play is a fade on the Lions. The other play I am waiting out the line.

But both plays are also my original BF plays as well.

I will track the new BF II record and the record when both BF's are on the same play.

This method does not produce alot of plays though.

3-0 ATS so far this season.so 5 plays thus far.

Last season this new BF did not lose a game with maybe 10-12 plays.

Obviously this method is going to lose games  I need more research but feel comfortable  enough to post the plays.

I track it back many season but not over the entire season in those years. In the early part of the season to very strong success.

Those early season 3-0 ATS results also had the Bator method fading the same team.

This week's Bator fade on the Bills is not a fade on this method.

Maybe by adding this method to the Bator method and to my original BF we can come up with an incredible high probability regression  method. 

I beg to differ my friend. I have watched every Packers game this year, fwiw...

Dude when Malik Willis is in, the Packers offense takes on another identity, and for the good imo. I know that Malik isn't the pure passer that Love is. But they run the crap out of the ball with Malik. They run more jumbo formations, and their play action pass looks stellar. Malik has been very good this year when called upon.

Just my 2 cents