NFL WEEK 9 ..........................2024

@theclaw

Every team that has lost to the Lions this season are 0-6 ATS the following week... take Pats +3.5 and ML 

Yes I am aware of that................

@theclaw

 BOL this Sunday, one one of the best threads on Covers 

Thank you ...............

GL  on your plays always informative @theclaw

Pts per plays margin ....................

I went back to 2008 and included both covid years 2020 & 2021.

Everything I posted earlier holds true over 16 years.

SB Winners as of Nov 1st are 6th or better with a rating of .117 or better.

4 exceptions, Brady once, Mahomes once and way back when we were in the era of surprise  teams from the WC round are the other 2 exceptions.

2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens.

So 12 of 16 year, (75%) and the 4 exceptions  are very understandable.

 Brady was 4th with Mahomes 7th so not much difference  there.

Brady rating of .099 , Mahomes .092 and by the way Ravens .093.

.090 seems to be a cut off point of what the very good, solid playoff teams look like.

Neither Brady nor Mahomes has gone on to win SB when they were below .090 on Nov 1st. Both were below .080 at the time.

The only season Mahomes was below both .090 and .080 in 2021 he did not make the SB, the only season he failed to do that other then his 1st year as a starter. he lost the Bengals in the AFC title game.

Bengals 4th .169 as of Nov 1st.

This Stat is very telling.  The best teams are making themselves known right now.

Only 6 of 64 teams to make the AFC or NFC Title game were outside the top 12 with rating below .025.

But 3 came in the 2 covid years. Which easily had the weakest teams make the title game. Back when players could opt out and no fans in the seats. And the uncertainty  of the situation. 

Understandable. 

There were only 2 teams of 64 that were out-played by opponents  make either title game.

2016 Packers (-.007) 17th, we are talking out-played by a fraction. 

That leaves Only 1 team of 64 over 16 years  that was completely  out-played by Nov 1st make the conference title game. 

2021 KC ranked 23rd with rating of (-.074)

But KC was in a very unquie  situation, off back to back SB's and off a SB loss and in covid.

Chances of a team being out-played by any decent amount in this metrics at this point of the season and making the conference finals is slim to almost none.

1. Lions .238

2. Bills .204

3. Vikes .179

4. Steelers. 118

5. Broncos .118

6. Wash .102

7. Chargers .089

8. Bears .084

9. KC .078 ....... below .090 and .080

10. Pack .077

the 7 teams above .090, well Chargers right there just a fraction under.

But the top 5 have the .117 . The SB winner is most likely in this top 5.

I'll  be checking back with this list as 2cd half goes on.

Futures plays ............

Steelers to win AFC +1400 --- .5 units to win 7 units

Steelers to win SB +3300 --- .5 units to win 16.5 units

Awesome work Claw

@theclaw

 BOL 

4 pending plays .........

Pack +3.5 (-115) over Lions --- 1.15 units

Dolphins +6.5 (-115) over Bills --- 1.15 units

Giants +3.5 (-115) over Wash --- 1.15 units

Titans -3 (-115) over Pats --- 1.15 units

Thank you ...................

New Bounce Factor II .................

2 plays this week, Fade on the Lions and a play on the Titans.

I will track the record but may not always take action.

Since both these teams are also plays using my original BF I did take action on these games.

This method is 3-0 ATS this year. But I wont count that in the record just saying, games earlier In The season before I knew the proper parameters.

@WilliamMunny

 Better Love doesn't play, makes the +3.5 look that much more attractive.  If Love plays, I would back out of this bet.  Love hurts, I hate backing injured qb's.

Injured QB's can be sketchy, u don't know what u are getting .

I hope if they are letting him play he Is good to play well.

Other system...........7-5 ATS

Pending play .....

Falcons -2.5 over Boys

I won't take action. Only tracking the record but in the right spots could take action.

1-2-1 ATS --- lost 1.3 units

Brutal to push on the Titans. They completely  outplayed the Pats. Gained over 400 yards outgaing Pats by well over 100 yds. 

Unreal they didn't win this game by double digits.

PR II had them winning by well over double digits based on how the game played out.

The play is on the Titans again next week. 

Love really cost the Pack right before half with that pick 6.  Very difficult to come back from those.

Brady said it best, you don't need that kind of risky play in this situation.  Understanding the game situation and being able to make good decisions based on this is what gives a team efficiency, being good in situational football. Brady was the master of this.

He brought that up again when Love made another risky play in the red zone but didn't get the INT.

Lions look like a beast, no doubt.

Great spot to fade them next week after playing a division opp and now playing an AFC team.

Hey, the Bator method did it again !!!,

Other system ................ now 8-5 ATS

1-0 ATS

Falcons got it done VS Boys. Many on you tube really like the Boys including sharps.

I think time to back the Boys will be this week at home.

They are a home field BF play in team. We'll  see.

There was a couple games I really disagree with many on you tube, that was one game the other Was Vikings VS Colts.  They really like Colts.

I used Vikes as my survivor play. I wanted to post about this game but was to busy to do so.

Other system will have at least 2 plays next werk. Haven't had time to go over all the games as of now.