NFL WEEK 9 ..........................2024

This is true .. but that was against Tennessee and the Colts. This Lion team is at another level. I like the pick you get the home team plus 3.5. But we will see 

GL

@WilliamMunny

 Let me clarify one thing, I do completely agree with you about the line. It is where it is because Malik is starting(as of now).

I was just saying I'd rather have Malik at +3.5 than Love at -1.

And I know this for a fact, because I grabbed the Lions +1 on the look ahead line. I now also have a GB +3.5 ticket in hand.

Also, the Lions defense is used to playing with three-TD leads. Will they generate a pass rush or not?

GL 

Watching you tube there is so much info backing the Packers it is crazy.

Teams 80% ATS are 37%. If division opp drops to 32%.

Packers coach is 69% ATS as a dog and adding other parameters like over +3 he is 18-4 ATS.

PLUS Goff outside is completely different QB. I saw the breakdown but don't remember  exactly what it was other then not good for Lions.

@theclaw

Jared Goff career splits:

Indoors: 

Comp% 68.02, qbr 100.1, 83/27 td/int

Outdoors:

Comp% 62.43, qbr 89.5, 97/52 td/int

Texans once again terrible on the road. 

They were like 3.9 ave per pass attempt 

In GB there were like 2.9.

They lost the pts per plays again dropping to 22cd.

Looking at road/home splits........

Home .040

Road (-.123)

If we only counted their home games, let's throw out the bad road games.

.040 would rank only 16th in the league.

Think about this, 2015 through 2023 not counting the 2 covid years, 2020 & 2021 of the 14 teams to make the SB only 2 ranked outside the top 6 as of Nov 1 in pts per plays.

No team ranked as low as 16th which would be only using the Texans home games giving g the Texans every advantage the odds are so stacked against them.

Of the 28 teams to make the conference  title game only 2 ranked as low as 16th, 0-2 SU.

Only 4 of 28 ranked outside the top 10. Texans don't  come close to the top 10 using only home games.

And I am giving the Texans every advantage by only counting their strongest  performances at home and they still cannot stack up with past successful playoff teams.

@theclaw

Sharp analysis.  Thanks.

Look at the drop in QBR.................

Thanks ................

Pts per plays margin .................

2015-2023 not counting 2 covid years.

Of the 7 teams to win SB........

All 7 ranked 7th or better as of Nov 1 that year.

5 of 7 had a rating of .117 or better as of nov 1, the 2 exceptions were Brady and Mahomes, who else right ?

The 2 greatest ever.

If we look at only those .117 or better and in the top 7...........

1. Lions .238

2. Bills .204

3. Vikes .179

4. Steelers .118

5. Broncos .118

There is a pretty good chance the next SB winner comes from this group of 5 teams.

It does not mean all these teams are good enough to win the SB though.

Broncos I find interesting, this week we should learn more about this team.

I think when we look at experience and other things the 2 teams would be Lions and/or Bills.

I don't think the Vikes with the QB but we can't count them out.

I think a good solid longer shot I'd back the Steelers to win AFC and SB.

And the Steelers are one of the 3 teams in week 1 top performers and one of 2 teams off a 10- win seasons.

This method has a strong history of teams making the conference  title games and winning divisions at a pretty high rate.

Steelers should beat the Ravens when they play so the time to grab them is soon. Possible they do regress in the short run though.

Steelers would maul the Texans in the playoffs, I doubt it would be close.

@theclaw

 I like the Packers this week as well, but I don't think the Dolphins are getting near enough points at Buffalo. The Bills have owned this team of late. If there is a regression in their future it will probably be NEXT week vs Indy, with KC on deck. Just my opinion for what it's worth. BOL!

That is very possible. Tua is 2-10 SU VS winning teams on the road and 3-8-1 ATS.

That is pretty pathetic. And now coming off a head injury last week , not playing for how long. I agree all this don't look good but when regression calls many times it just works regardless.

If Bills win and cover I will be making a number of fades on Bills with more units next week.

@theclaw

Losing their top 2 receivers really hurt the Texans.  They don't have the depth to overcome this.

It's absolutely shocking to me that Green Bay would get the field goal and the hook at home against a division rival. I don't care what Detroit has done lately. The Packers are a 6-2 team and getting points at home against a 6-1 team. I suppose the line was 3.5 earlier in the week before Jordan Love progressed a little bit through the injury. 

I'd wait to make a play on that. I think it's too much value to take the Packers if Jordan Love plays.

I think the Lions are more likely to lay an egg next week against Houston, who will be missing Diggs and Nico Collins, and coming off a loss against the 2-6 Jets. 

Also not liking the Atlanta play really. If anyone needs a bounce factor, it's probably Dallas. Yeah, they had a couple of nice TDs in garbage time last week, but they have not played well the last two games. I lean Dallas in this spot, but I'm pretty low on Dallas even re-entering the playoff conversation at any point moving forward. 

Giants - I think it's a great spot to take the Giants here. Enough said. 

Yes, I saw online the Texans difference  with and without Collins. Like night and day................

Interesting, I do agree next week VS Texans would be a great spot to fade the Lions if the do win and cover VS Packers.

Dallas doesn't fit any regression formula that I use VS Falcons.

The one regression they do fit is home field regression which I do use every now and again. They do fit both BF's for home field play on team at home.

Interesting  that if Eagles win and cover VS Giants more then likely I will be fading them next week. I think they play Dallas in Dallas of all things.

Now that would be a great spot especially  if Boys lose to Falcons...................

Speaking Of home field regression, the Bills are a home field regression fade on both my original BF and my new BF II.

I look up the Lions but they don't fit any home/road splits for a regression  fade.

They fit overall regression  fade.

I do have regression plays on both Saints and Panthers. Geez.......... But unfortunately  they play each other.

Which means I will be holding my nose and backing the loser of this losers bowl next week and very likely upping my play with more units.

It will be a pretty good spot.

Opps ...... Eagles don't play the Giants. But if they win SU & ATS they most likely become a fade playing Dallas at Dallas with Dallas being a home field regression  play on team.

Brings up a very nice spot.

@theclaw

 Looking at next week....Steelers at Washington looks interesting.....lean pittsburgh....

I think I have a fade on Steelers next week. But could have a fade on Wash as well if they win and cover VS Giants.

@theclaw

 I'm hoping Washington Covers tomorrow....

Titans -3 (-115) over Pats --- 1.15 units

Bounce Factor play on team, Titans also my new BF II play on team.

Very  surprised  when Titans opened -3.5, how are the Titans -3.5 over any team ? Was hoping it drop to at least 3, even lower.

Steve Fezzik  said his PR's had Titans over a 3 pt favorite. But then he said the same thing, how are Titans  -3.5 over any team  ?

Didnt make sense for him to say that if his PR's had Titans over 3.

I'll trust the BF on the Titans.