NFL WILDCARD PLAYS (1/12)

FINAL YTD (NFL):  71-44-4 YTD

Another winning season in the NFL, which is strange b/c it seems it can be so tough.  That's FIVE straight winning seasons posting on Covers and this season definitely did NOT end well as I slid a bit in the final weekend.  Truth be told, I should be more disciplined as that and the first couple weeks of the season are perennially the toughest.

No point in just sitting around and waiting to post, I know who I'm backing and why, and I don't see that changing.  I'm guessing some of the plays might see me in the minority but as always, I will give a write up for all the plays.  Gonna kick it off with the Saturday games as there's not much more time until kickoff anyways.  Plus I will be up early as soccer is finally back in tow and haven't had a great week up to this point, so need the winners:

OVER 43.5 (CLE/HOU) & CLEVELAND (-130)...BIG PLAY!!!:  Right out of the gate with a big play which have been super solid this year.  In short, the Browns have a matchup on the road, after a really stellar season.  The reason I like them is because THIS version of the Browns, which you will see tomorrow, has only been together for about a month.  I expect NRG Stadium to be loud and make things difficult for Flacco BUT, the BIG reason I like the Browns, is BECAUSE of Flacco.  He is one of the BEST playoff QBs (yes, that's right) and for whatever reason, in all the years I watched him with the Ravens, when the playoffs arrived, he became a different signal caller.  I liked Stroud, I like the Texans makeup, but I just think a rookie QB is being asked a lot to beat this veteran, albeit with some pieces missing.  I DO think both teams will be able to score but the Browns defense will make one more stop and have a better coach on the sidelines which should get them the W.  Plus, how great of a story line will it be if Flacco came to Baltimore to face the Ravens and the old Browns squared off against the new ones.  The NFL likes storylines like this so don't think it's not pushing for that to happen.  Cleveland is 4-1 SU in the last 5 against Houston and a staggering 10-0 SU against the AFC South.  Cleveland in a close HIGH scoring affair.

LAR (+3.5):  I already played this and liked it when it first opened.  The Lions defense has NOT been real good of late and the Rams have been surging.  This game will showcase how solid their offense is and how underrated Puka Nakua and Kyren Williams are.  We all know the stud Cooper Kupp is.  It will also have HUGE meaning for Stafford who will be returning to Detroit for this playoff game.  I also expect an OVER in this game and a wide open and fun matchup but, in the end, I think having those 3+ points will be a real difference.

Other stuff I have played:  RAVENS TO WIN SUPER BOWL (+350) and RAVENS TO WIN AFC (+110).  

As I have said all along, this will be the season when two brothers win both the NCAAF and NFL Championships for the first time in history.  See you all in Vegas for Super Bowl!  I will definitely be adding more plays but these are locked and loaded for now.  Of course, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

Solid picks BOL this weekend!  

@LAGameofInches

@LAGameofInches

THK, GL

Flacco is one of the best playoff QBs ever and in the road even better. He is 10-5 in the playoffs and 7-5 on the road which is the most road playoffs wins in the history of NFL tied with the GOAT. He is sixth in NFL history with a .667 win percentage. Minimum 15 games. Not sure if all this means a lot on Saturday but I’ll put my money on him 

@LAGameofInches

" Other stuff I have played:  RAVENS TO WIN SUPER BOWL (+350) and RAVENS TO WIN AFC (+110).  "

I liked those for 10$ apiece in Week 13 (+650 and +270), because I thought if they did well against SF, there was a catalyst to unlock value. Hadn't even seen Baltimore play. After I saw the SF game, I put another 40$ on the Super Bowl at +450, because I thought it was insulting. (SF was +250)

@LTsCrazedDog

Looks like you got a first class seat on the Ravens train before it pulled out of the station :) 

Yes, that is a main reason I am backing the Browns.  He knows how to get it done at least when it comes to the playoffs and, as you pointed out, on the road.

@WilliamMunny 

@LAGameofInches  

Flacco will take the Brown to SB. 

Nice work and GL 

@LAGameofInches

 Love both play. Good luck bro. 

I had ravens to win the division , have an afc championship and an SB futures ticket.

Lets go

Good luck LA.  

Great work this season. I’ll tag along with the total 

Hey LAG, thanks for the analysis.

Like your Cleveland calls.

Agree - Rams Lions gonna be close.

GL! 

Hate that these get buried but I’m also not sure why I’m. It just unleashing and hopping on this play already. Adding….

UNDER 44 (MIA/KC):  Part of why I did so well this year was by backing unders vs inflated totals that really just take public sentiments and not true analytics. Tonight is another example as KC has been really puzzling all year on offense given the inept receivers including Kelce. Instead they have turned to a run first team with Pacheco and even Mahomes scrambling to extend drives. Tonight will be ICE cold and that’s no pun intended. If you’ve ever played football in the cold you know that ball feels like a rock and even with gloves and warmers will be tough to catch. Add in the KC drops and Mostert back for a Miami team that will face a really good KC defense and I can’t see how the running game doesn’t take front and center. Sure there will also be missed tackles but I’m gonna let these teams prove to me that the cold is no hindrance to scoring. Play this confidently, I just did. 

i should be around throughout the day. Thanks for all the kind words I’m otherwise on a slide in NBA so I need these games to hit, and they will. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all…

@WilliamMunny

 Joe Flacco was average in his prime. He was more of a game manager. Don't forget he had that legendary defense with Ray Lewis behind him. 

He is playing well now as an older QB and has found some chemistry with this offense. That said I do think they squeak out a win today but it will be closer that people think. I think Houston gets up early with the help of the home crowd Probably up or tied at halftime and Cleveland takes over in the 2nd half.

Great record congrats on a winning season. GL thru the Super bowl.    

@dayknight

I think everyone remembers Ray and the defense he had. Browns defense also stout.  But I completely agree with your prediction. Flacco was also referred to as Joe Cool a reference to Joe Namaths nickname as he led the Jets to greatness. He will be ready to roll as a trusted veteran who has been in this position before. 

I'm bumping the Miami/KC UNDER to BIG PLAY!!!

Really can't see break away scoring and the way the Chiefs D has performed at home I also can't see the Dolphins getting into the end zone at will.  If they do, so be it, I lose.  But I will again revert back to the handicapping all year on these TOTALS and while I hate UNDERS they have been very very good to me and the overall record.

Happy to hear anyone else's angle.