1. It’s not just who you play, but when you play them. Bengals won @Raiders by DD after LVR just got terrorized by Chiefs, and CIN coming off bye. Now sched favors CIN again, at home on a short week vs Raiders team that had emotional OT win over bolts to qualify for playoffs. I was initially leaning Raiders but now I don’t think they can keep up with Bengals in this spot
2. Two words for Mac Jones=rookie wall. He had a great first season, but is overmatched here
3. Steelers won 2 of last 3 @KC, Ben R can keep this one close, even if they’re not likely to win SU. Chiefs easily won last meeting but they had a 10 day rest advantage
Thats been Thorpes thing the last 2 years ...He's hit some monsters at nice odds...
I'll probably be on -10, but it only paid +195 last I checked..
If I don't bet it that alt line they'll win by 20+ ...your welcome 
I don't take issue with anything you said, but personally...I wouldn't have a bet on every game, or even on most. Games that you see as 50-50...I'd pass on. I do think KC and TB are teams that can play down or up to anyone, and I'd be very hesitant to lay lots of points in any round. I also think that holding a 43-1 ticket would be enough to keep me off this game, and especially this game. It's not a matchup I'd get even more involved in, although I guess I'd be inclined to oppose that idiotic former coach of my team (McCarthy) wherever possible. So having said all that, I'd say Bills are a really good lean. And maybe wait to take Bucs at HT.
I think the biggest mistake people make is believing their own narratives at playoff time. I say that even though I agree with your narratives. At playoff time all the teams are good, all can surprise, and all sorts of shit is gonna happen, always does. Some team that nobody believes can do anything will, I don't know, have their QB throw a TD pass to himself, just to use one ridiculous example. Instead of betting 20 units this weekend split among six games, choose one and go big. Usually that means choosing the one you like the least.
vanzack,
i love the writeup, but i think cowgirls shine here. as good as the stats and numbers snow 9ers, jimmy cant score. hes like a young Dak great between the 20s but most of 9ers scores were FG or runs. runs are great but back a QB to maybe throw 2 TD?
Dallas hung 50+ 2 of last 3, dont care who it was VS he slung 5 TDs
Big D ranks 4 of 5 over SF its not even close, SF has the sack hallo.
lets not even talk about the INT gap of these two teams. jimmy needs his A++++++++ game here
6 seeds on an 8-0 ATS run in the playoffs!!
49ers and Patriots. Both have favorable matchups as well. The Pats are the more physical team, good run game, strong D. The Bills have a big advantage on paper at QB but oddly enough Allen’s numbers in games under 30 degrees aren’t great, only 165ypg passing. They have zero run game. Not really built for the playoffs. Coaching mismatch is off the charts. I really want to love Buffalo but really can see them losing at home this weekend.
49ers secondary + refs in Dallas scare me. Otherwise SF is my pick for the SB as well I think they’ve got the goods! Need to get to Dak early and often!!
Good luck
Didn't think it was confusing.... But I am on the Niners - and not a lean.
7-2 in their last 9, playing in the toughest division in football.
Dallas is 6-0 vs Eagles, Giants, WFT, 6-5 against the rest. GL
I look at this and see selective reasoning.
SOS for the season suggests that Dallas played a tougher schedule.
Here are some of the teams the 49ers played:
Det, Chi, Jax, Minn, Atl, Hou and Philly when the Eagles were struggling.
SF lost to Seattle twice. Seahwaks were 5-10 against the rest of the NFL.
There are no shortage of reasons to like SF this week, but IMO basing it upon the teams that the Cowboys and 9ers played this year is not one of them 
Yeah - I understand your point and agree somewhat.
Keep in mind that if you and I were at lunch, talking about this for an hour - we would talk each others ears off about all of the reasons. Typing is a bit of a different medium - and this was a secondary post to a few earlier ones. This is certainly not the sole reason.
For years here I have talked about writeups and if there is value at all. People love reading writeups because they want to buy in to a reasoning. I happen to believe that I could write up both sides on ANY game in a convincing way. There are always reasons to take either team - and you happen to point out that the same SOS in this game could be looked at as a positive or negative for EITHER side. I get it.
You said it.... Not my cup of tea.
A lot of my buddies will ask me things like this "you bet on games, don't you think XXXX should be in the hall of fame?" or "We dont want vanzack in our fantasy league, he would kill us because this is all he does".
It is kind of weird how isolated and narrow focused my knowledge is. I dont know things like fantasy and HOF. For fantasy - I would need to examine the scoring system first and all of the rules around it. I have no idea what earns a QB points, so I have no idea who to suggest. I think you get my point.
Basically - if I cant make money - I dont want any part of it. And the day I stop sports wagering - I doubt I will watch another sporting event in my life.
I am definitely concerned about this!!
I was doing my normal podcast / radio / reading this morning - and there was a very good 5 minutes on VSIN I should link. It talks about the Raiders being one of the lowest blitz teams in the NFL - but still getting to the passer at a high rate with 4 guys and how that might be very bad for Burrow. Who knows.
I have to listen to an hour of this stuff to get a good 5 minutes - but this is definitely worth checking out.....
https://twitter.com/VSiNLive/status/1481395564470325256?s=20
I respectfully disagree with almost everything in this post. To each his own, but this is how I respond:
1. I bet on every game I feel or calculate that I have an edge. If a game is even, and I am getting +3.5 and +150ML, that is an autobet. No brainer. These are the games you DONT skip.
2. My future bet has zero - and I literally mean zero - to do with weekly wagering. If the Niners are ever in a spot where the line isnt right, I will still bet against them. Last week I posted here that if the Niners win - the perfect opponent for them out of the three available is Dallas, and then GB - which is how I think it will go.
3. I much prefer to bet 20 units spread over 6 games (to use your example) than 20 units on 1 game. This has to do with #1 above. I feel this is the difference between a gambler that measures success over 1,000 wagers rather than say 10 wagers. I am long haul.
GL
Look.... I cant really debate this. Dallas offense is very good, when they are good. But I think you can acknowledge that they are very inconsistent and struggle against the better defenses - which SF is.
And to say "I dont care who it was against" in terms of opposition - is something I strongly disagree with. Adjusted stats are the only stats that matter. To me at least.
GL
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