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NJPorky's 2H NFL System Plays

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Posted: #126
@js4u - Does your Excel spreadsheet pulls the lines from 5Dimes automatically?

 
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Posted: #127
JS4U - I sent ya a friend request .. I wanted to talk about back testing.. I have NCAA Football numbers starting from 2010.
 
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Posted: #128
rsix:  Got it, thanks.
 
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Posted: #129
PUNKCASH  Yes it does.
 
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Posted: #130
@js4u - sent you a friend request

 
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Posted: #131
I'm new to the site.  What is the best way to find this thread on Sunday when it is buried by a bunch of threads.

Also - I have read Porky's system and I am very intrigued.  I think that most people are missing an important point that I don't think has necessarily been explained.  The worst thing that can happen to a casino is to get middled.  They pay double.  They want to minimize the chance of that happening and that, in part, I believe is what is driving this system.  If the casino were to put up the actual line then it could potentially open them to a larger middle.  For instance - in the ATL/KC game, if they were forced to put the spread where it belonged then the o/u would have been higher and the middle would have gotten larger.  I think this system is a way to exploit that issue.  I would also think that there are probably further refinements that can be made if we review the stats from the prior year.

I saw that someone potentially has a spreadsheet with some last year data and this system.  If you would be willing to share it, I would like to try to see if there is anything else that we can glean from it.  I'm pretty good with excel and math oriented.

Feel free to friend me.

Thx
 
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Posted: #132
Shirldog:  Just look for the thread.  It will remain on the first few pages.
 
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Posted: #133
PUNKCASH  Accepted, thanks.
 
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Posted: #134
NJPorky - Thanks for sharing system you use with the rest of the community.

Hopefully we can come up with an automated process.
 
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Posted: #135

Yes, if anyone has any spreadsheets they would like to share please post them.

I am currently working with a partner to help me finalize my database/spreadsheet and I will post what I have when I am able to do so.

 
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Posted: #136
Has anyone tracked this? or has anyone experienced this 2 or 3 years back?  I read one poster say there are some hot and COLD streaks.  Anyone who followed in years past have comments? 
 
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Posted: #137

I'm intrigued as I used to do a 2H betting system for the NBA (much more upkeep than this system).

What kind of streaks (winning and losing) do you tend to get?

What lines do you use as the official pregame line? Covers? Do you take the opening lines or the lines just before the game starts?

Do you think the lines should be consistent? ie. Pregame line and 2H line from the same sportsbook?

 

 
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Posted: #138

@js4u

I would love to have the spread sheet too. Especially the historical one for backtesting. Who knows, maybe the strategy can even be improved upon.

 
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Posted: #139
NJPorky - Kudos to a very nice system and thanks for sharing.  I crunched through the 2010 season to see how well it worked.

Playing with the "10pt" barrier, I couldn't get it to be profitable in 2010.  My math could be wrong, but I validated a lot of plays against your older posts and they're pretty dead on.

Interesting enough, moving the pts to 13 made it EXTREMELY profitable with a lot less bets!  Especially on the Under/Overs.

I've posted the doc on google if anyone wants to look.
 My caveats:
   1)  I'm not advocating anything, just crunching numbers.  This is NJPorky's system and all credit should go to him.
   2)  My numbers *could* be wrong, I'm not a math professor.
   3)  My lines come from sportbookreviewsonline.com and I don't make any claims to their accuracy.
   4)  Past results do not predict future outcomes...The spreadsheet is 2010 - things may have changed in 2 years.

Here is the link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Agmx_aK13cIgdEJweW1RUzdoVzBqaGpBOFJpTE9xVVE#gid=0

I believe if you download the spreadsheet - you can change cell "AA1" to 9.75, this will replicate the 10pt system.  The calcs in the spreadsheet look for ">" or "<" this number - hence 9.75 and not 10 (otherwise 10pt diffs are not plays).

I'm downloading 2011's stats to see the outcome.  I'll add the tab when I finish.

Enjoy & thanks again.
 
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Posted: #140
Quote Originally Posted by schiman:

NJPorky - Kudos to a very nice system and thanks for sharing.  I crunched through the 2010 season to see how well it worked.

Playing with the "10pt" barrier, I couldn't get it to be profitable in 2010.  My math could be wrong, but I validated a lot of plays against your older posts and they're pretty dead on.

Interesting enough, moving the pts to 13 made it EXTREMELY profitable with a lot less bets!  Especially on the Under/Overs.

I've posted the doc on google if anyone wants to look.
 My caveats:
   1)  I'm not advocating anything, just crunching numbers.  This is NJPorky's system and all credit should go to him.
   2)  My numbers *could* be wrong, I'm not a math professor.
   3)  My lines come from sportbookreviewsonline.com and I don't make any claims to their accuracy.
   4)  Past results do not predict future outcomes...The spreadsheet is 2010 - things may have changed in 2 years.

Here is the link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Agmx_aK13cIgdEJweW1RUzdoVzBqaGpBOFJpTE9xVVE#gid=0

I believe if you download the spreadsheet - you can change cell "AA1" to 9.75, this will replicate the 10pt system.  The calcs in the spreadsheet look for ">" or "<" this number - hence 9.75 and not 10 (otherwise 10pt diffs are not plays).

I'm downloading 2011's stats to see the outcome.  I'll add the tab when I finish.

Enjoy & thanks again.

Great looking spreadsheet.  I assume you just imported it and had all your "if" "then" statements.  I still fully understand the system.  Maybe have to go back and read the rules by porky to check your formulas.  But i'm pretty sure you know what you are doing.  I love how you put the option of change the 2h line to "should be 2h line" differential!  That was something i was planning on doing but it got late last night.  Anyhow GREAT WORK
 
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Posted: #141
cheeersM8:  I will backtest last season if you would like and post it tonight.
 
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Posted: #142
Quote Originally Posted by js4u:

cheeersM8:  I will backtest last season if you would like and post it tonight.

Please do so.  I think that would help others get a better idea of what this system is capable of and what it is not.  Thank you
 
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Posted: #143
Quote Originally Posted by js4u:

cheeersM8:  I will backtest last season if you would like and post it tonight.

Also sent friend request
 
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Posted: #144
 
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Posted: #145
Quote Originally Posted by schiman:

NJPorky - Kudos to a very nice system and thanks for sharing.  I crunched through the 2010 season to see how well it worked.

Playing with the "10pt" barrier, I couldn't get it to be profitable in 2010.  My math could be wrong, but I validated a lot of plays against your older posts and they're pretty dead on.

Interesting enough, moving the pts to 13 made it EXTREMELY profitable with a lot less bets!  Especially on the Under/Overs.

I've posted the doc on google if anyone wants to look.
 My caveats:
   1)  I'm not advocating anything, just crunching numbers.  This is NJPorky's system and all credit should go to him.
   2)  My numbers *could* be wrong, I'm not a math professor.
   3)  My lines come from sportbookreviewsonline.com and I don't make any claims to their accuracy.
   4)  Past results do not predict future outcomes...The spreadsheet is 2010 - things may have changed in 2 years.

Here is the link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Agmx_aK13cIgdEJweW1RUzdoVzBqaGpBOFJpTE9xVVE#gid=0

I believe if you download the spreadsheet - you can change cell "AA1" to 9.75, this will replicate the 10pt system.  The calcs in the spreadsheet look for ">" or "<" this number - hence 9.75 and not 10 (otherwise 10pt diffs are not plays).

I'm downloading 2011's stats to see the outcome.  I'll add the tab when I finish.

Enjoy & thanks again.


13 pt difference went 6-1 this past week.

BOL

 
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Posted: #146

Guys thanks for the input, the 13 point thing has got me intrigued...maybe we need to adjust it from 10 to 13...hmmm

I just always used 10 and above...iut just seemed like enough of a middle where you would think of heding your bet to try and win 2 bets...but maybe 13 is the magic number.

Also js4U I would love if you could post the plays like I do for the games I'm not around for.... I will be around tonight and I'm going to start a week #2 thread now

I love that we got alot of people backtesting this....I could never find a site with old 2H lines. I also would love to see if this works in the other sports, college football,basketball,ect...Thanks for all the help

 
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Posted: #147

NJPorky 

Sounds good.  Let me know when you wont be here and I will post 4 u.

 
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Posted: #148
 
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Posted: #149
scoresandodds.com have halftime lines for a number of previous seasons.

GL
 
 
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Posted: #150
under in the GB game is a play?

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