Over 2.5 QBs - Draft -200

8 Units

1st round?

Over 3.5 +220 

Willis...Pickett...And Who? Howell

Been some week QB classes the past few seasons.

@davemsh

Ridder 

Howell 

I don't see them going 1st round..Both are reaches...

@davemsh

2015 (Winston / Marriota) is last time there were NOT at least 3 qbs drafted in the 1st rd.  Only twice in the last decade has this happened (2013 Geno Smith).  Go look at the names of QBs drafted in the 1st round since 2012.  

I'm not saying they aren't reaches, just that there is a very good possibility 3 are drafted.  I did not bet that +220, just posting odds.  Ridder will go 1st round imo.  Howell is PFF's top rated QB, followed by Willis and Ridder, for what it's worth.  In the last decade, the QB position has developed into the number 1 over drafted position in the history of sports.  NFL GM's and coaches will reach for a QB if they are on the hot seat and want / hope to extend their stay.  +220 is not a bad play and at -200 the over 2.5 is well worth the vig.  

For fun, some names of guys drafted as the 3rd or 4th QBs in the top 32 picks...

Jordan Love - 4th QB, pick 26 

Haskins (RIP) - 3rd, pick 15 

Josh Rosen - 3rd, pick 10 

Lamar - 4th, pick 32 

Trubisky - 1ST QB / 2ND OVERALL PICK - passed Mahomes and Watson (those were the 3 QBs taken in 1st rd.  Only use this as illustration of misjudgments and reaches)

Paxton Lynch - 3rd QB, 26th pick 

Bridgewater - 3rd / 32 

Tannehill - 3rd/ 8th 

Brandon Weeden - 4th / 22nd pick 

Gabbert - 3rd / 10th 

Ponder - 4th / 12th 

...........lay the -200 and sleep well.  

now -255

solid bet!

2 should go in the first 10 picks and one more should go, even a good chance some team trades up to 30-32 to lock in the 5th year option

QB class is crap in 2022

I expect a lot of WRs being draft in 1st Round 

I don't agree with this...Unless you think the QB will start by end of his rookie year or beginning of 2nd year...its a waste...See Jordan Love...You draft a QB in the 1st round if you think he can be your starter...other wise you wasting valuable ammo...Howell became more of a running QB last season...He's 6'1..Lot on INT's in college....Sort of regressed last 2 years...Ridder is a solid game manager type QB but does not wow you. has not shown he can carry the team throwing the ball..although he did not have to......Willis and Pickett going in the top 10 is a Joke if that happens....Weakest QB class in years... Willis and Pickett would not even be in the 1st round in last years draft...

@davemsh

 trust me, nfl front offices value that 5th year option, especially on a QB..and especially if they grabbing them late in the 1st because they arent drafting them to immediately start in that draft slot typically, so if the guy blooms in year 3 or 4 they will be ecstatic to have that 5th year option......packers situation was unique where they have a HOF QB, so it probably wasnt a wise decision by their FO to make that pick

i do debate the weakness of the QB class and if teams wont "over draft" them....but then my gut says its the most valuable position in all of professional sports so teams are probably willing to take a gamble

and tons of 1st round picks bust, so taking a CB or a QB, you still have a good chance at a bust.....OL/DL typically a bit safer but can still bust

Pitts at #20 might pick a QB in the first round after Willis and Pickett are gone...they are a little thin at qb with the Haskins passing and Dobbs signing with the Browns...down to Trubisky and Rudolph. 

Drafting a wide receiver is the better move than drafting this bad quarterback class.

Really hope not , would love to see Trubisky get his chance to take control of the job for the next decade..

My guess is Corral 

-290 at my book 

Don't be shocked if there are only 2 qbs picked before 30th, could see some team trading into the first round to take a qb 30-32nd ...Huge plus to get the extra year of the rookie contract ( 1st round )

Wondering how Willis can be ranked over Ridder and Pickett when Liberty plays such a vanilla schedule? But who knows for certain... unless a team has great coaching...how many teams have that? 
Willis is flashy but so was Kordell Stewart...Willis has a big body (225 lbs) on that 6'0" frame. Is he the next Russell Wilson? 

My opinion on players in the draft doesn't carry any weight , but I rare Willis top of the qb class ...Probably needs a couple years to develop in practice though ...Hope your Steelers avoid him