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* Packers/Steelers SUPER BOWL Play + Detailed Analysis *

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Posts: 194

red19

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 213

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 12:31 PM ET #126

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frank the tank

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2006

Posts: 5802

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 12:53 PM ET #127

UNDeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeer

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FleshGordun

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Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 915

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 1:31 PM ET #128

I watch almost very PIT game, in 09 the PIT D was notorious giving up points in the 4th qtr. There corners played soo much cushion sometimes you couldnt see them on the screen. Same D different style this D is much improved. GB D they are for real too. PIT O has returned to its running game, they will pass on first donw but Rothlesburger is far less prone to throw a pick. GB vs CHI Rogers throws 2 picks, then in the 2nd half they keep a TE or RB in for pass protection and there passing attack gets shut donw. Rogers gets very cautious (as well he should) and Mccarthy puts the game on his D just like PIT likes to do. The talking heads? I learned long ago to avoid hearing what they say, they know the public likes points and they want to "sell" the gmae for viewers. The sharps are waiting for the # to rise and so am I.

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bouncer07

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 883

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 1:59 PM ET #129

OVER!!!!

Green Bay will be scoring on them cats by 10 points! CASH IT!

Packers- 7 10 3 10 = 30

Steelers- 7 0 10 3 = 20

OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 3:45 PM ET #130

Quote Originally Posted by FleshGordun:

I watch almost very PIT game, in 09 the PIT D was notorious giving up points in the 4th qtr. There corners played soo much cushion sometimes you couldnt see them on the screen. Same D different style this D is much improved. GB D they are for real too. PIT O has returned to its running game, they will pass on first donw but Rothlesburger is far less prone to throw a pick. GB vs CHI Rogers throws 2 picks, then in the 2nd half they keep a TE or RB in for pass protection and there passing attack gets shut donw. Rogers gets very cautious (as well he should) and Mccarthy puts the game on his D just like PIT likes to do. The talking heads? I learned long ago to avoid hearing what they say, they know the public likes points and they want to "sell" the gmae for viewers. The sharps are waiting for the # to rise and so am I.

Right on brutha! Great points. Good luck on Sunday!

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bodio

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Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 3:46 PM ET #131

Quote Originally Posted by bouncer07:

OVER!!!!

Green Bay will be scoring on them cats by 10 points! CASH IT!

Packers- 7 10 3 10 = 30

Steelers- 7 0 10 3 = 20

OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

wow! How about GB only scores 3 pts in the 4th...23-20 final!

UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER :)

GL buddy. Go UNDER

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vegasplayer

Veteran

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 1194

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 5:08 PM ET #132

Bodio I have a different take.

I think I posted before if Pitt is +3 I am teasing
Pitt +10 and under 51.5.

The is I think safer and smarter.
and 51.5 = 7 TD's and 1 FG to beat me.

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bodio

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Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 6:41 PM ET #133

Quote Originally Posted by vegasplayer:

Bodio I have a different take.

I think I posted before if Pitt is +3 I am teasing
Pitt +10 and under 51.5.

The is I think safer and smarter.
and 51.5 = 7 TD's and 1 FG to beat me.

Like that Teaser a lot. Good luck.

I would definitely look to teasing Steelers + the UNDER instead of Packers + the UNDER. Move 'value' in my opinion

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Krans

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2007

Posts: 1455

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 7:10 PM ET #134

Bodio great write up I truly enjoyed it.

I'm similar to you on this game, I think both defenses are great (Stellers more experience but I think the Packers are actually better) I actually think the game line is off and that's the main reason I would lean Pitt to take the points but I think it obviously could go either way.

When the lines first came out I pretty much teased Pitt and the Under right away. Interestingly my book opened at 44.5 and moved UP to 45 oddly enough.

I agree with your reasoning and barring some huge unexpected plays or a late OT I think there is a lot of value on the under. My biggest play this year so far was the other big game (Ore/AUb Under) I'm not nearly as confident in this one but do agree with your side,

BOL and Awesome Information

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bodio

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Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 8:15 PM ET #135

Quote Originally Posted by Krans:

Bodio great write up I truly enjoyed it.

I'm similar to you on this game, I think both defenses are great (Stellers more experience but I think the Packers are actually better) I actually think the game line is off and that's the main reason I would lean Pitt to take the points but I think it obviously could go either way.

When the lines first came out I pretty much teased Pitt and the Under right away. Interestingly my book opened at 44.5 and moved UP to 45 oddly enough.

I agree with your reasoning and barring some huge unexpected plays or a late OT I think there is a lot of value on the under. My biggest play this year so far was the other big game (Ore/AUb Under) I'm not nearly as confident in this one but do agree with your side,

BOL and Awesome Information

Great stuff buddy. I definitely agree with your analysis here.

Good luck on Sunday!

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SykesSystem

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 13663

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 9:05 PM ET #136

Just take the Steelers SU and make some money... But it was a good write up.

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WillyBilliams

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2010

Posts: 351

Posted: Feb. 4, 2011 - 12:22 AM ET #137

Thanks, Love your write ups!! My local has been higher on GB all year (I think he gets tons on GB $) and always pads the over. He has GB -3 and 46. I took the under tonight as my bigger play, (500.) but think this game is won by a field goal. I normally don't play $ lines or buy points but I keep looking at this bet, tell me what you think: Pitt. +3 with local & GB +3.5 -225 at "The Greek" on $100. the most I lose is 125. but can win 200. I tried to ignore this bet but it keeps talking to me.

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Jaykay9294

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 196

Posted: Feb. 4, 2011 - 12:47 AM ET #138

Oh fuck you guys! The very first day the lines drop. I posted the game was gunna be under and all you queers denied and said it was over.

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Jaykay9294

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 196

Posted: Feb. 4, 2011 - 12:49 AM ET #139

Gj bodio, you are a good capper. I even said steelers/under teaser

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 4, 2011 - 8:21 AM ET #140

Quote Originally Posted by WillyBilliams:

Thanks, Love your write ups!! My local has been higher on GB all year (I think he gets tons on GB $) and always pads the over. He has GB -3 and 46. I took the under tonight as my bigger play, (500.) but think this game is won by a field goal. I normally don't play $ lines or buy points but I keep looking at this bet, tell me what you think: Pitt. +3 with local & GB +3.5 -225 at "The Greek" on $100. the most I lose is 125. but can win 200. I tried to ignore this bet but it keeps talking to me.

NO NO NO! The average margin of victory in a SuperBowl has been 12.5 points since 1990. Doing what you're suggesting is a mistake. For you to win it HAS to be a 3 point game. Anything else and you LOSE money (either juice, or even worse, your -225 GB play). The chances of this game ending on a 3 are very minimal while the chances of it being a 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12, etc point game are much much higher. Just not a good bet long-term...good luck

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 4, 2011 - 8:23 AM ET #141

Quote Originally Posted by Jaykay9294:

Oh fuck you guys! The very first day the lines drop. I posted the game was gunna be under and all you queers denied and said it was over.

So the queers are betting the OVER in this one? Hmmm.... wonder what the gay population knows that we don't. :)

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 4, 2011 - 8:23 AM ET #142

Quote Originally Posted by Jaykay9294:

Gj bodio, you are a good capper. I even said steelers/under teaser

Like that teaser...might be an 'action' teaser for me prior to the game... GL

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Pho_Q_Pay_Me

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 2384

Posted: Feb. 4, 2011 - 8:40 AM ET #143

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

I wanted to share a few more thoughts on this UNDER play in the SuperBowl.

I think most people will notice that every time you watch ESPN, everyone is talking about their expectations for a 'shoot-out' in the Big-Game on Sunday. The other night I was watching Jaworski talk about how certain he is that this is going to be a shoot-out just like the 2009 meeting between the teams (37-36 Pittsburgh victory). I've watched that game (it was an awesome game to watch by the way) and reviewed it. I really don't think the game on Sunday will be anything like that one. A few things to consider:

#1) That game involved 2 big plays in the first 4 minutes of the game: 60 yards TD pass to Mike Wallace in the opening minute and then a 83 yards TD pass to Jennings 3 minutes later. By the way, Tyrone Carter made a terrible attempt to tackle Jennings on that one, resulting in the TD. Both of these defenses have stopped the 'big-play' this season and I believe the emphasis on Sunday will be to take it away.

#2) Speaking of Tyrone Carter, he was Troy Polamalu's back-up in 2009. Polamalu did not play in that game against the Packers, and he only actually appeared in 6 games total that season. Besides a horrible tackle attempt that Carter made on that 83 yards TD reception by Jennings, he also took a terrible 'angle' on the 24 yard Ryan Grant TD run in the 4th quarter. The guy was a major 'liability' in that game. It's no wonder that he only appeared in 7 games for the Chargers in 2010, making 11 tackles on the season. Well, Rodgers has never seen Polamalu before. It's one thing to study film on someone, but it's another to actually face him in a real game. I know Polamalu is only 1 player, but he is a major difference maker for the Steelers' D. He will be a factor in this one, unlike Tyrone Carter who was a major disappointment in that 2009 meeting with the Packers.

#3) Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant are both out. Both of these guys were major 'players' in the 2009 meeting with the Steelers. Finley had 9 catches for 74 yards and TD, while Grant rushed 8 times for 37 yards with a 24-yard TD run in the 4th. Neither player is fully replaceable (please don't tell me that Starks is adequate. He has been pretty bad actually besides the game against Eagles' 'swiss-cheese' defense) and their absence is a factor here as well.

#4) Packers' D was in 1st year under Capers. It usually takes a few years to fully put your defense in place. In 2009 Dom Capers came to the Packers to install the 3-4 D. They played well in that year, but 2010, his 2nd year on the job, is when it really took off. Sure a lot of players are the same, but I feel this defense is a lot better than it was in 2009.

#5) The 'talking-heads', so-called experts. I think we all know that when all the ESPN, CBS, analysts are predicting one thing, things tend to end up very differently. These experts talk about the 'most obvious' things, same things that most of the watching public notices. They often don't bring much to the table besides the obvious analysis: if the Steelers/Packers 2009 meeting ended up with a 37-36 score, then the outcome will be 'high-scoring' again in 2010. You'll see/hear this a lot in the next few days leading up to the SuperBowl. Just be careful. There is a lot more to it. In my experience, betting against these 'so-called' experts is a pretty profitable long-term proposition.

I guess I decided to post these thoughts to add to my analysis on the game. I think this game is going to be played very differently than the one in '09. Different players, improved defenses, and a lot more on the line in this one. The line opened at 46 in this game and with 70%+ on the OVER that # has gone down to 44/44.5 in some of the 'sharpest' books. Now, who would you rather follow here, the 'talking heads on ESPN' or the 'real SHARPS who bet sports for a living'?

May I ask where you find the videos to past games such as this? I would like to watch this game.

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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

I wanted to share a few more thoughts on this UNDER play in the SuperBowl.

I think most people will notice that every time you watch ESPN, everyone is talking about their expectations for a 'shoot-out' in the Big-Game on Sunday. The other night I was watching Jaworski talk about how certain he is that this is going to be a shoot-out just like the 2009 meeting between the teams (37-36 Pittsburgh victory). I've watched that game (it was an awesome game to watch by the way) and reviewed it. I really don't think the game on Sunday will be anything like that one. A few things to consider:

#1) That game involved 2 big plays in the first 4 minutes of the game: 60 yards TD pass to Mike Wallace in the opening minute and then a 83 yards TD pass to Jennings 3 minutes later. By the way, Tyrone Carter made a terrible attempt to tackle Jennings on that one, resulting in the TD. Both of these defenses have stopped the 'big-play' this season and I believe the emphasis on Sunday will be to take it away.

#2) Speaking of Tyrone Carter, he was Troy Polamalu's back-up in 2009. Polamalu did not play in that game against the Packers, and he only actually appeared in 6 games total that season. Besides a horrible tackle attempt that Carter made on that 83 yards TD reception by Jennings, he also took a terrible 'angle' on the 24 yard Ryan Grant TD run in the 4th quarter. The guy was a major 'liability' in that game. It's no wonder that he only appeared in 7 games for the Chargers in 2010, making 11 tackles on the season. Well, Rodgers has never seen Polamalu before. It's one thing to study film on someone, but it's another to actually face him in a real game. I know Polamalu is only 1 player, but he is a major difference maker for the Steelers' D. He will be a factor in this one, unlike Tyrone Carter who was a major disappointment in that 2009 meeting with the Packers.

#3) Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant are both out. Both of these guys were major 'players' in the 2009 meeting with the Steelers. Finley had 9 catches for 74 yards and TD, while Grant rushed 8 times for 37 yards with a 24-yard TD run in the 4th. Neither player is fully replaceable (please don't tell me that Starks is adequate. He has been pretty bad actually besides the game against Eagles' 'swiss-cheese' defense) and their absence is a factor here as well.

#4) Packers' D was in 1st year under Capers. It usually takes a few years to fully put your defense in place. In 2009 Dom Capers came to the Packers to install the 3-4 D. They played well in that year, but 2010, his 2nd year on the job, is when it really took off. Sure a lot of players are the same, but I feel this defense is a lot better than it was in 2009.

#5) The 'talking-heads', so-called experts. I think we all know that when all the ESPN, CBS, analysts are predicting one thing, things tend to end up very differently. These experts talk about the 'most obvious' things, same things that most of the watching public notices. They often don't bring much to the table besides the obvious analysis: if the Steelers/Packers 2009 meeting ended up with a 37-36 score, then the outcome will be 'high-scoring' again in 2010. You'll see/hear this a lot in the next few days leading up to the SuperBowl. Just be careful. There is a lot more to it. In my experience, betting against these 'so-called' experts is a pretty profitable long-term proposition.

I guess I decided to post these thoughts to add to my analysis on the game. I think this game is going to be played very differently than the one in '09. Different players, improved defenses, and a lot more on the line in this one. The line opened at 46 in this game and with 70%+ on the OVER that # has gone down to 44/44.5 in some of the 'sharpest' books. Now, who would you rather follow here, the 'talking heads on ESPN' or the 'real SHARPS who bet sports for a living'?

May I ask where you find the videos to past games such as this? I would like to watch this game.

Augustus1

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 201

Posted: Feb. 4, 2011 - 9:09 AM ET #144

Computer ran 2501 scenarios and Steelers came out 52.5% winner with avg. score of 21-20

FYI - I like Steelers in first half and will bet the team that is trailing in second half. Second half bets on team to come from behind was 59% this year.

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ggriffin

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 3

Posted: Feb. 4, 2011 - 9:17 AM ET #145

anyone heard what MrBator has to say about the superbowl. He was right on both championship games

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Crusher13

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 7050

Posted: Feb. 4, 2011 - 10:30 AM ET #146

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

We shall see

If it does, oh well. It will be just 1 loss. Remember, don't go crazy betting more than you do normally. It's just ANOTHER game.

It's not more important than the college bball game you're betting on today, or the NBA game you're placing a wager on tomorrow, or that all-important 'best movie of the year' bet you're going to make during Oscars. JUST ANOTHER GAME guys. Don't lose your ass off. Keep your bankroll intact and enjoy it!

I enjoyed this qoute this post but...............................

What other game do they let you wager on among other things:

              1) How long Christine take to sing National Anthem?
              2) Coin flip outcome
    3) Will Pouncey even play?
              4) That the worst Super Storm ever would disrupt DFW and JJ's fantasy of GREATEST SUPER BOWL week ever?
              5) That Mendenhall and Jennings wouldn't score TD?
              6) That considering that Rapesberger started season SUSPENDED for raping a DRUNK COED COULD be holding the VINCE LOMBARDI trophy Sun Nite and MVP too???????
              7) Will Fergie have a WARDROBE malfunction?

              and last but. most importantly,

              8) Is there any doubt that OVER 44 points will be scored in this tight "DEFENSIVE" contest?

Bod, there are plenty of posts I would love to respond here to but I haven't the time as I'm overworked by our SEVERE weather here in Big D. But when I post tonight, reference to Ore/Aub game is the most significant angle I'm going to elaborate upon. Reversely, though

Fantastic informative thread you created BUT you are on the WRONG SIDE.

Besides it's so fricken cold, snowy, and miserable here, the only thing hot woll be those 2 "offenses" Sunday night

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ZonaCats

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 3600

Posted: Feb. 4, 2011 - 11:25 AM ET #147

Great analysis. But what's is missing is the counter arguments. If the under is so one-sided, then i'd be wary...

When two "great" defenses play each other, I believe overs have occurred more times than not because perception drives the total down...

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FleshGordun

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 915

Posted: Feb. 4, 2011 - 1:14 PM ET #148

Packer backers seem to see only one thing: The GB ATL playoff game they choose to ignore CHI PHI. Did they look at GB vs ATL in the season, in the dome against the 16th ranked ATL D Rogers threw for 370 plus yrd.s final ATL 20 GB 17. I see the Packs 28 point 2nd qtr. as an anomaly rather than the norm. I think about PIT D GB D, two O's losing momentum in the 2nd half of there last games,two weeks off, will GB be able to utilize the "spread" against the PIT pass rush, Pits running game (ball control). Both QB's not forcing the ball on there end of the field. Both coach's rely on there D's (Dom Capers Dick Labeu).

So I dunno give me something other than the turf and the dome

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Kaufee

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 4749

Posted: Feb. 4, 2011 - 2:31 PM ET #149

Bodio, that was an absolutely amazing piece of work. You are one of the very best to ever post here on covers. Thank you so much for taking the time to share your analysis. I've been riding your coat tails for several weeks and I see no reason to stop now. I am ALL OVER THIS UNDER (no pun intended).

Thanks again Bodio!! I truly appreciate all the hard work that you share with us.

LET'S GET THIS UNDER!!!!!!

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mike214

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 2770

Posted: Feb. 4, 2011 - 3:05 PM ET #150

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*** Packers/Steelers SUPER BOWL Play + Detailed Analysis ***

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* Packers/Steelers SUPER BOWL Play + Detailed Analysis *