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* Packers/Steelers SUPER BOWL Play + Detailed Analysis *

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Posts: 194

MM_312

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 7

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 1:40 PM ET #101

Hey Bodio,

What was the site you used for your stats? I thought I saw you post it awhile back, but can't find it. statfact or something?

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ToyPro

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2009

Posts: 371

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 3:31 PM ET #102

Great job Bodio! Thank you.

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 4:48 PM ET #103

Quote Originally Posted by MM_312:

Hey Bodio,

What was the site you used for your stats? I thought I saw you post it awhile back, but can't find it. statfact or something?

statfox

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 4:48 PM ET #104

Quote Originally Posted by ToyPro:

Great job Bodio! Thank you.

TP, what's up my brutha!

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MM_312

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 7

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 7:46 PM ET #105

Thanks man! Love the work...

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woodsywins1616

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 244

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 8:45 PM ET #106

Haven't read your posts before, my original thought was on the under but lately have been thinking about the over with a score of like 24-21. After reading your article I think you have swayed me back to my first opinion of the other. Lots of excellent info in your article but I can't say I agree with you on the sides analysis. To me i believe GB is the better teach when you match them up. I think GB has a big advantage passing the ball against the Pitt Secondary and I think they have a big advantage with their secondary versus Pitt receivers. I think both defensive lines and offensive lines are around equal with the defensive lines being the stronger of the two and getting pressure on the QBS. The fear is that Rodgers is more prone to fumbles then Big Ben and that may cost GB and it may hurt the under, but as long as Rodgers gets rid of the ball or holds it when he gets sacked all should be well. Special teams again no real advantage but I think Starks gives GB possibilities. Pitt has the advantage in the run game by far but I think GB can have 8 in the box to stop the run with their corners and get away with it. GB will not be able to run the ball effectively but may break a big play set up from all the passing they will do. Anyway thanks for the write up and I thought i would add one of my own.

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Jan. 30, 2011 - 12:45 AM ET #107

Quote Originally Posted by woodsywins1616:

Haven't read your posts before, my original thought was on the under but lately have been thinking about the over with a score of like 24-21. After reading your article I think you have swayed me back to my first opinion of the other. Lots of excellent info in your article but I can't say I agree with you on the sides analysis. To me i believe GB is the better teach when you match them up. I think GB has a big advantage passing the ball against the Pitt Secondary and I think they have a big advantage with their secondary versus Pitt receivers. I think both defensive lines and offensive lines are around equal with the defensive lines being the stronger of the two and getting pressure on the QBS. The fear is that Rodgers is more prone to fumbles then Big Ben and that may cost GB and it may hurt the under, but as long as Rodgers gets rid of the ball or holds it when he gets sacked all should be well. Special teams again no real advantage but I think Starks gives GB possibilities. Pitt has the advantage in the run game by far but I think GB can have 8 in the box to stop the run with their corners and get away with it. GB will not be able to run the ball effectively but may break a big play set up from all the passing they will do. Anyway thanks for the write up and I thought i would add one of my own.

Thanks for sharing. I agree that Pitt's secondary is their 'weak link' but having a rookie on an already 'average' O-line will allow Steelers' front 7 get a lot of pressure on Rodgers. That in turn will neutralize a bit the talent of the Packers' receivers. If this advantage is 'neutralized', then both teams are very very equal. I guess it all depends how you see this game playing out. If you think GB O-line can give Rodgers enough time consistently, then yes Packers are the better team. I just don't think they will be able to. GB needs to run the ball effectively to win this game. Can they do it? Hmm....we shall see

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Quote Originally Posted by woodsywins1616:

Haven't read your posts before, my original thought was on the under but lately have been thinking about the over with a score of like 24-21. After reading your article I think you have swayed me back to my first opinion of the other. Lots of excellent info in your article but I can't say I agree with you on the sides analysis. To me i believe GB is the better teach when you match them up. I think GB has a big advantage passing the ball against the Pitt Secondary and I think they have a big advantage with their secondary versus Pitt receivers. I think both defensive lines and offensive lines are around equal with the defensive lines being the stronger of the two and getting pressure on the QBS. The fear is that Rodgers is more prone to fumbles then Big Ben and that may cost GB and it may hurt the under, but as long as Rodgers gets rid of the ball or holds it when he gets sacked all should be well. Special teams again no real advantage but I think Starks gives GB possibilities. Pitt has the advantage in the run game by far but I think GB can have 8 in the box to stop the run with their corners and get away with it. GB will not be able to run the ball effectively but may break a big play set up from all the passing they will do. Anyway thanks for the write up and I thought i would add one of my own.

Thanks for sharing. I agree that Pitt's secondary is their 'weak link' but having a rookie on an already 'average' O-line will allow Steelers' front 7 get a lot of pressure on Rodgers. That in turn will neutralize a bit the talent of the Packers' receivers. If this advantage is 'neutralized', then both teams are very very equal. I guess it all depends how you see this game playing out. If you think GB O-line can give Rodgers enough time consistently, then yes Packers are the better team. I just don't think they will be able to. GB needs to run the ball effectively to win this game. Can they do it? Hmm....we shall see

khmerlife

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 11

Posted: Jan. 30, 2011 - 2:21 AM ET #108

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Jan. 30, 2011 - 12:56 PM ET #109

Quote Originally Posted by khmerlife:

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Jan. 31, 2011 - 2:29 PM ET #110

Quote Originally Posted by MM_312:

Thanks man! Love the work...

No problemo brutha! Good luck to you

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 2, 2011 - 3:11 PM ET #111

I wanted to share a few more thoughts on this UNDER play in the SuperBowl.

I think most people will notice that every time you watch ESPN, everyone is talking about their expectations for a 'shoot-out' in the Big-Game on Sunday. The other night I was watching Jaworski talk about how certain he is that this is going to be a shoot-out just like the 2009 meeting between the teams (37-36 Pittsburgh victory). I've watched that game (it was an awesome game to watch by the way) and reviewed it. I really don't think the game on Sunday will be anything like that one. A few things to consider:

#1) That game involved 2 big plays in the first 4 minutes of the game: 60 yards TD pass to Mike Wallace in the opening minute and then a 83 yards TD pass to Jennings 3 minutes later. By the way, Tyrone Carter made a terrible attempt to tackle Jennings on that one, resulting in the TD. Both of these defenses have stopped the 'big-play' this season and I believe the emphasis on Sunday will be to take it away.

#2) Speaking of Tyrone Carter, he was Troy Polamalu's back-up in 2009. Polamalu did not play in that game against the Packers, and he only actually appeared in 6 games total that season. Besides a horrible tackle attempt that Carter made on that 83 yards TD reception by Jennings, he also took a terrible 'angle' on the 24 yard Ryan Grant TD run in the 4th quarter. The guy was a major 'liability' in that game. It's no wonder that he only appeared in 7 games for the Chargers in 2010, making 11 tackles on the season. Well, Rodgers has never seen Polamalu before. It's one thing to study film on someone, but it's another to actually face him in a real game. I know Polamalu is only 1 player, but he is a major difference maker for the Steelers' D. He will be a factor in this one, unlike Tyrone Carter who was a major disappointment in that 2009 meeting with the Packers.

#3) Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant are both out. Both of these guys were major 'players' in the 2009 meeting with the Steelers. Finley had 9 catches for 74 yards and TD, while Grant rushed 8 times for 37 yards with a 24-yard TD run in the 4th. Neither player is fully replaceable (please don't tell me that Starks is adequate. He has been pretty bad actually besides the game against Eagles' 'swiss-cheese' defense) and their absence is a factor here as well.

#4) Packers' D was in 1st year under Capers. It usually takes a few years to fully put your defense in place. In 2009 Dom Capers came to the Packers to install the 3-4 D. They played well in that year, but 2010, his 2nd year on the job, is when it really took off. Sure a lot of players are the same, but I feel this defense is a lot better than it was in 2009.

#5) The 'talking-heads', so-called experts. I think we all know that when all the ESPN, CBS, <enter your network> analysts are predicting one thing, things tend to end up very differently. These experts talk about the 'most obvious' things, same things that most of the watching public notices. They often don't bring much to the table besides the obvious analysis: if the Steelers/Packers 2009 meeting ended up with a 37-36 score, then the outcome will be 'high-scoring' again in 2010. You'll see/hear this a lot in the next few days leading up to the SuperBowl. Just be careful. There is a lot more to it. In my experience, betting against these 'so-called' experts is a pretty profitable long-term proposition.

I guess I decided to post these thoughts to add to my analysis on the game. I think this game is going to be played very differently than the one in '09. Different players, improved defenses, and a lot more on the line in this one. The line opened at 46 in this game and with 70%+ on the OVER that # has gone down to 44/44.5 in some of the 'sharpest' books. Now, who would you rather follow here, the 'talking heads on ESPN' or the 'real SHARPS who bet sports for a living'?

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I wanted to share a few more thoughts on this UNDER play in the SuperBowl.

I think most people will notice that every time you watch ESPN, everyone is talking about their expectations for a 'shoot-out' in the Big-Game on Sunday. The other night I was watching Jaworski talk about how certain he is that this is going to be a shoot-out just like the 2009 meeting between the teams (37-36 Pittsburgh victory). I've watched that game (it was an awesome game to watch by the way) and reviewed it. I really don't think the game on Sunday will be anything like that one. A few things to consider:

#1) That game involved 2 big plays in the first 4 minutes of the game: 60 yards TD pass to Mike Wallace in the opening minute and then a 83 yards TD pass to Jennings 3 minutes later. By the way, Tyrone Carter made a terrible attempt to tackle Jennings on that one, resulting in the TD. Both of these defenses have stopped the 'big-play' this season and I believe the emphasis on Sunday will be to take it away.

#2) Speaking of Tyrone Carter, he was Troy Polamalu's back-up in 2009. Polamalu did not play in that game against the Packers, and he only actually appeared in 6 games total that season. Besides a horrible tackle attempt that Carter made on that 83 yards TD reception by Jennings, he also took a terrible 'angle' on the 24 yard Ryan Grant TD run in the 4th quarter. The guy was a major 'liability' in that game. It's no wonder that he only appeared in 7 games for the Chargers in 2010, making 11 tackles on the season. Well, Rodgers has never seen Polamalu before. It's one thing to study film on someone, but it's another to actually face him in a real game. I know Polamalu is only 1 player, but he is a major difference maker for the Steelers' D. He will be a factor in this one, unlike Tyrone Carter who was a major disappointment in that 2009 meeting with the Packers.

#3) Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant are both out. Both of these guys were major 'players' in the 2009 meeting with the Steelers. Finley had 9 catches for 74 yards and TD, while Grant rushed 8 times for 37 yards with a 24-yard TD run in the 4th. Neither player is fully replaceable (please don't tell me that Starks is adequate. He has been pretty bad actually besides the game against Eagles' 'swiss-cheese' defense) and their absence is a factor here as well.

#4) Packers' D was in 1st year under Capers. It usually takes a few years to fully put your defense in place. In 2009 Dom Capers came to the Packers to install the 3-4 D. They played well in that year, but 2010, his 2nd year on the job, is when it really took off. Sure a lot of players are the same, but I feel this defense is a lot better than it was in 2009.

#5) The 'talking-heads', so-called experts. I think we all know that when all the ESPN, CBS, <enter your network> analysts are predicting one thing, things tend to end up very differently. These experts talk about the 'most obvious' things, same things that most of the watching public notices. They often don't bring much to the table besides the obvious analysis: if the Steelers/Packers 2009 meeting ended up with a 37-36 score, then the outcome will be 'high-scoring' again in 2010. You'll see/hear this a lot in the next few days leading up to the SuperBowl. Just be careful. There is a lot more to it. In my experience, betting against these 'so-called' experts is a pretty profitable long-term proposition.

I guess I decided to post these thoughts to add to my analysis on the game. I think this game is going to be played very differently than the one in '09. Different players, improved defenses, and a lot more on the line in this one. The line opened at 46 in this game and with 70%+ on the OVER that # has gone down to 44/44.5 in some of the 'sharpest' books. Now, who would you rather follow here, the 'talking heads on ESPN' or the 'real SHARPS who bet sports for a living'?

theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 10363

Posted: Feb. 2, 2011 - 9:41 PM ET #112

Once again outstanding detailed write-up !!!

You have the same view of the pundits as I do. They watch games on TV and then just repeat the obvious, as tho the next game will unfold exactly like this one. A 8th grader watching the NFL for the very first time could make the same observations, it doesn't anyone special to do this.

What happens with alot of squares is they watch games on TV then tune into ESPN and when the pundits repeat the exact same thing the square saw watching the game this re-enforces those beliefs in the squares mind, and he now belives he's ready to go to war with a book next week.

These are the same ones who'll be crying fix after next weeks games, coz how could they and all the pundits be so wrong ???

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ActionMagnet

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 8524

Posted: Feb. 2, 2011 - 9:43 PM ET #113

Good luck BODI00000!!

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Skipster

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 6379

Posted: Feb. 2, 2011 - 11:28 PM ET #114

Solid analysis, Bode. Good luck to you.

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ruderunner

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 374

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 1:17 AM ET #115

so I assume you would back a teaser with Pitt plus and the under!

Just getting Pitt over the TD mark with 8.5 and that under up to 51?

That may be the way to go. i am sold on under 51 but pack plus 3.5 or 4 seems inviting as well.

What way would you go still Pitt as stated earlier?

thanks

Great analysis!

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 1:25 AM ET #116

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Once again outstanding detailed write-up !!!

You have the same view of the pundits as I do. They watch games on TV and then just repeat the obvious, as tho the next game will unfold exactly like this one. A 8th grader watching the NFL for the very first time could make the same observations, it doesn't anyone special to do this.

What happens with alot of squares is they watch games on TV then tune into ESPN and when the pundits repeat the exact same thing the square saw watching the game this re-enforces those beliefs in the squares mind, and he now belives he's ready to go to war with a book next week.

These are the same ones who'll be crying fix after next weeks games, coz how could they and all the pundits be so wrong ???

haha...very funny observations. Unfortunately they're very true for a lot of people. Majority of the 'so-called' squares only gamble for the 'fun' of it. Most of them don't really care if they lose a couple of hundred bucks on sports annually. I do feel bad for all those people that can't stop gambling but lose $$ on a continuous basis.

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 1:25 AM ET #117

Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

Good luck BODI00000!!

thanks brutha. You too!

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 1:25 AM ET #118

Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

Solid analysis, Bode. Good luck to you.

thanks buddy. good luck to you as well

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 1:27 AM ET #119

Quote Originally Posted by ruderunner:

so I assume you would back a teaser with Pitt plus and the under!

Just getting Pitt over the TD mark with 8.5 and that under up to 51?

That may be the way to go. i am sold on under 51 but pack plus 3.5 or 4 seems inviting as well.

What way would you go still Pitt as stated earlier?

thanks

Great analysis!

Sure, an action teaser with Steelers + points and UNDER is pretty solid. I'm only leaning Steelers because I feel getting them at ML has value on the side. The side is too close to call in my opinion as I don't see taking Packers -2.5 having much 'value' at all. If this game is played 10 times I think it goes 5-5, so no edge from my perspective.

GL

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VLR

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 2068

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 5:41 AM ET #120

Bodio,

Right now My line is at 44. My plan is to hold out until close to kickoff and hope for the usual over swell, so its at least at 45. those numbers are crucial. With 46.5 obviously being the dream number, what is your opinion if the number does not move off of 44. Is it stilla heavy play there? Should I buy the couple of points? Any advice is appreciated

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ndsent1

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 19113

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 10:23 AM ET #121

Steelers over 44.5........

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ndsent1

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 19113

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 11:07 AM ET #122

Just an great analysis. We will see....gl

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 12:22 PM ET #123

Quote Originally Posted by VLR:

Bodio,

Right now My line is at 44. My plan is to hold out until close to kickoff and hope for the usual over swell, so its at least at 45. those numbers are crucial. With 46.5 obviously being the dream number, what is your opinion if the number does not move off of 44. Is it stilla heavy play there? Should I buy the couple of points? Any advice is appreciated

Yes, I would recommend waiting prior to kick-off. 80% of all the 'total' action gets booked Fri, Sat, and Sun right before Super-Bowl. The public will move that #. 44 and 47 are 'key numbers'. If you can get it at 47, that would be terrific (I am actually going to bet it UNDER again if it reaches 47). If it doesn't just play it at anything above 44...

What do you mean by 'heavy' play? Don't go crazy here. Bet your normal bet-amount. If you want a little more 'excitement' then bump it up by a bit (or make a small teaser with a side)...but don't do anything that will jeopardize your bankroll. Just another game! The SB game is just as important as the NBA game tonight...

NEVER buy points on TOTAL plays. (Only seldomly on the sides in NFL, to get to 'key' #'s). It's hard enough to win with 10% juice, but it's nearly impossible to be a long-term winner with juice of 20%+...

Good luck!

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 12:23 PM ET #124

Quote Originally Posted by ndsent1:

Steelers over 44.5........

good luck buddy. Go UNDER

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Feb. 3, 2011 - 12:23 PM ET #125

Quote Originally Posted by ndsent1:

Just an great analysis. We will see....gl

Yup, in a few days. Should be a great game. Can't wait...

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*** Packers/Steelers SUPER BOWL Play + Detailed Analysis ***

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* Packers/Steelers SUPER BOWL Play + Detailed Analysis *