Joining late. Solid analysis of my team. I loved your input on the 1st quarter numbers and it stood out yesterday. I wouldve definitely placed a 1st Q bet had I seen this thread before.
The problem I see with your win total bet is the softness of Philly's schedule. There are at least 7 games (I include yesterday's game which clearly showed some of the Eagles' flaws) which could be classified as gimmes or easy wins. So Philly's floor is 7, and I think going 4/5 on the other 9 is actually pesimistic considering you have Bears, Seattle and Dallas at home amongst those, and I also did not classify going to NYG as a gimme. Visiting GB and Atlanta are not that scary either.
Hope to see you around for some discussions.
BOL in your new endeavour!