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Legend
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Posted: #226
Damn dude...good luck 
 
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Posted: #227

Books that were dealing the NFC +3.5 last weekend now have advanced Super Bowl lines of KC -1 over SF. That was comedy.

 
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Posted: #228
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Books that were dealing the NFC +3.5 last weekend now have advanced Super Bowl lines of KC -1 over SF. That was comedy.


Cause Baltimore lost
 
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Posted: #229

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Neither of these dogs has a hope this weekend. I laid -6.5 on some low limit stuff Saturday night before the Sunday games and then laid -7 again with both teams. The wannabe sharps will be saying things like "Square teaser of the century" and "No way this wins it's too easy". Except it is. People make sports betting way harder than it needs to be. Niners/Chiefs teaser is one of the best bets you'll see. Hell of a run, buddy. See you in Miami.

Bro, I 100% agree with everything you said. People are trying to outthink this because it seems too easy. Green Bay had 2 weeks to prepare for the Niners last time and got worked and Green Bay was the healthier team going in. The Packers are better at QB and WR1 and that is about it. The Niners are just gonna just keep replenishing DL and RB and be fresh all game. I just don’t see anyway the Packers keep this within single digits. I think it’s actually going to look very similar to the first game, but it seems like the square, unoriginal thing to say.

 
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Posted: #230

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Damn dude...good luck

Thanks, Sac. Go big or go home!

 
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Posted: #231

Looks like this will keep vacillating between 7.5 - 7 all week. I feel better having it locked it now as I have zero expectation it will move to 6.5.

 
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Posted: #232
Bang bang Niners gang!! Let’s go buddy!!
 
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Posted: #233
good luck, niner! can't disagree with the pick. unfortunately i don't think my packers future to win the nfc is gonna hold up this weekend. time to hedge. 
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
 
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Posted: #234
Gl mah man Big
 
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Posted: #235

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Neither of these dogs has a hope this weekend. I laid -6.5 on some low limit stuff Saturday night before the Sunday games and then laid -7 again with both teams. The wannabe sharps will be saying things like "Square teaser of the century" and "No way this wins it's too easy". Except it is. People make sports betting way harder than it needs to be. Niners/Chiefs teaser is one of the best bets you'll see. Hell of a run, buddy. See you in Miami.

It is actually hard ...don't make it sound it is easy when it is not.

Good luck this week-end.

The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
 
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Posted: #236

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Putting this in now as I’ve seen some movement in the lines: San Francisco -7 Risking 66 units to win 60 units

 

100% agreed

peace_5

 
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Posted: #237

Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Neither of these dogs has a hope this weekend. I laid -6.5 on some low limit stuff Saturday night before the Sunday games and then laid -7 again with both teams. The wannabe sharps will be saying things like "Square teaser of the century" and "No way this wins it's too easy". Except it is. People make sports betting way harder than it needs to be. Niners/Chiefs teaser is one of the best bets you'll see. Hell of a run, buddy. See you in Miami.
It is actually hard ...don't make it sound it is easy when it is not. Good luck this week-end.

It's hard for people who don't compartmentalize their betting theory.

You'll often hear the phrase " Absorb as much info as you can before making a decision."

For 99% of us this just creates overload and confusion. Find an angle that you enjoy following and stick to it. When you find a big edge that others may not see, you're on your way. Niners best edge is knowing his favorite team. Forget the homer talk, having intuitive knowledge of just 1 team is priceless. Just one of many ways to increase your odds and dismiss the noise. I feel like I'm rambling so I'll stop. 

 
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Posted: #238

Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:

Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Neither of these dogs has a hope this weekend. I laid -6.5 on some low limit stuff Saturday night before the Sunday games and then laid -7 again with both teams. The wannabe sharps will be saying things like "Square teaser of the century" and "No way this wins it's too easy". Except it is. People make sports betting way harder than it needs to be. Niners/Chiefs teaser is one of the best bets you'll see. Hell of a run, buddy. See you in Miami.
It is actually hard ...don't make it sound it is easy when it is not. Good luck this week-end.
It's hard for people who don't compartmentalize their betting theory. You'll often hear the phrase " Absorb as much info as you can before making a decision." For 99% of us this just creates overload and confusion. Find an angle that you enjoy following and stick to it. When you find a big edge that others may not see, you're on your way. Niners best edge is knowing his favorite team. Forget the homer talk, having intuitive knowledge of just 1 team is priceless. Just one of many ways to increase your odds and dismiss the noise. I feel like I'm rambling so I'll stop.

Thanks a lot, Getty3, I appreciate the thoughts. You’ve been here long enough to know I bet against the Niners plenty. The only game I missed this year was the season finale against the Seahawks and we all know I was inches away on that one. For this game, I totally and 100% understand why a lot of folks I sincerely respect are siding with the Packers. That blowout earlier this season was my one fear coming into this game, odds wise as I knew everyone would be focused on it. At the end of it, I’ve gone over everything and the only way I see the Packers competing is getting +3 in the turnover department and even then I’m not sure they win the game. I think there is an enormous disparity in talent. I’m going to add more thoughts and numbers later. peace_5

 
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Posted: #239
Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:

It is actually hard ...don't make it sound it is easy when it is not. Good luck this week-end.

It's hard for people who don't compartmentalize their betting theory.

You'll often hear the phrase " Absorb as much info as you can before making a decision."

For 99% of us this just creates overload and confusion. Find an angle that you enjoy following and stick to it. When you find a big edge that others may not see, you're on your way. Niners best edge is knowing his favorite team. Forget the homer talk, having intuitive knowledge of just 1 team is priceless. Just one of many ways to increase your odds and dismiss the noise. I feel like I'm rambling so I'll stop. 

Very wise words. Do not disagree at all. That is how I felt about the Niners v Packers regular season game where the line was set at -3. I did a writeup for that game and  had ten units on that game which is a max play for me. But I feel this line is a bit too high, no where near the bargain -3 was even though the Niners are more than capable of covering. 
 
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Posted: #240
Let me add that what is missing from this second matchup with GB is the element of surprise. When they met the first time we ( i.e. Niner backers with intimate knowledge of the team) knew how much better they were than GB, but most people, including pundits, did not. Now that element of surprise is gone and the Packers know they will have to do something extra special to compete. What that something extra special is only they know. So the element of surprise is now on their side, even though with the talent SF has it may not be enough.
 
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Posted: #241
I think I'll be joining you BigNiner.

I just can not find many(if any at all) matchups on the field that the Packers exploit.

Dee Ford and Kittle didn't practice today, any chance they don't go? 

Remind me, did Westin Richburg play vs the Packers last time? Ben Garland has seemed to be doing well. Those Air force lineman can plow in the run game.

In a nutshell, Mike Petinne is an idiot. He doesn't disguise anything. The niners use motion more than any other team, they'll read him. His best weapons on D are the Smith brothers on the edge, especially pass rushing. 2 TE sets with a FB is perfect to run at guys like that. The Packers Nose Tackle Kenny Clark got hurt last game. Big dude with a bad back is not good as a NT is the center piece of the 3-4. It didn't matter vs Seattle cause that o line is trash. 

Just a few things I dig. Still looking. GL
 
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Posted: #242
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Let me add that what is missing from this second matchup with GB is the element of surprise. When they met the first time we ( i.e. Niner backers with intimate knowledge of the team) knew how much better they were than GB, but most people, including pundits, did not. Now that element of surprise is gone and the Packers know they will have to do something extra special to compete. What that something extra special is only they know. So the element of surprise is now on their side, even though with the talent SF has it may not be enough.

If I'm Lafluer, I'd go hurry up offense with quick hitting passes. Don't let the Niners rotate in linemen. If he can somehow dictate a fast pace and get on top early, maybe then Shanny will stray from the run and put it on Jimmy's shoulders.

When it comes to handicapping such gameplans is anyone's best guess though.


 
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Posted: #243

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

I think I'll be joining you BigNiner.I just can not find many(if any at all) matchups on the field that the Packers exploit.Dee Ford and Kittle didn't practice today, any chance they don't go? Remind me, did Westin Richburg play vs the Packers last time? Ben Garland has seemed to be doing well. Those Air force lineman can plow in the run game.In a nutshell, Mike Petinne is an idiot. He doesn't disguise anything. The niners use motion more than any other team, they'll read him. His best weapons on D are the Smith brothers on the edge, especially pass rushing. 2 TE sets with a FB is perfect to run at guys like that. The Packers Nose Tackle Kenny Clark got hurt last game. Big dude with a bad back is not good as a NT is the center piece of the 3-4. It didn't matter vs Seattle cause that o line is trash. Just a few things I dig. Still looking. GL

Kittle is perfectly fine and Ford will definitely play, they are just giving his hamstring max rest and not taking any chances. Richburg got hurt after the Packers game in New Orleans, but as you alluded to, Ben Garland has been an unexpected godsend filling in for him.

 
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Posted: #244

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

I just can not find many(if any at all) matchups on the field that the Packers exploit.

On the paper and on the surface, especially based on the two games they played last week -> the 9ers will trash the Packers bad.

The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
 
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Posted: #245
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:


If I'm Lafluer, I'd go hurry up offense with quick hitting passes. Don't let the Niners rotate in linemen. If he can somehow dictate a fast pace and get on top early, maybe then Shanny will stray from the run and put it on Jimmy's shoulders.

When it comes to handicapping such gameplans is anyone's best guess though.



To my mind, the Vikings and Packers are about equal talent with the Packers having the benefit of seeing them up close and getting a second crack at them. I posted the trend for such matchups in my thread. The team that won in a blowout wins the second game by an average of 8 points. That just about covers the -7 or -7.5. I have 64 units riding on this game and all I need is for the Niners to win. But I'm still worried and will probably hedge some by taking Packers ML. Good luck.
 
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Posted: #246

My fear last weekend after the Packers best the Seahawks was that the entire free world would be on the Niners this week because of their recent memory of San Fran pummeling Green Bay earlier in the season. Amazingly, not only did that not happen, but the opposite has actually occurred with most of the betting public trying to be sharp and convince themselves the Packers will be a different team tomorrow. Spoiler alert: They won’t. Don’t make this game tomorrow more complicated than it needs to be.  

 
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Posted: #247

The Flu bug is not circulating in the Packers locker room. At least they’ll have an out card to use an_popcorn

 
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Posted: #248

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

The Flu bug is NOW circulating in the Packers locker room. At least they’ll have an out card to use

 
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Posted: #249

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

The Flu bug is not circulating in the Packers locker room. At least they’ll have an out card to use

they do not need an out card. they have nothing to lose at all. If they lose by 20 tomorrow no one will even care or say anything. there really is no pressure on the packers. 

 
 
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Posted: #250
Quote Originally Posted by Phillip2002:

they do not need an out card. they have nothing to lose at all. If they lose by 20 tomorrow no one will even care or say anything. there really is no pressure on the packers. 


Rodgers has a ton of pressure.
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