Playoff Thread

I’m going to update everything later. I had/have to break up my super bowl bets into multiple bets.

Big Niner,

been reading your insight all year and we are on the same page. 9ers seem to get no respect, a lot of cappers (mainly east coast bias ones) are thinking KC destroys SF in the SB. They say....

1. Who’s Mostert he sucks

2. Jimmy Will fuck up

3. overrated defense ya da ya da ya da... 

I think KC gets punched in the mouth early, make a comeback but 9ers ultimately take it.

would love your insight on the prop bets, are you going to start a new thread or stay on this one

will be sprinkling for sb mvp

1. Mostert 

2. Deebo 

3. Sanders

4. Bosa

thoughts?

Not my style...at all actually, but I went into the playoffs with a plan to be aggressive and ride the Niners. It’s a lot of money, not going to lie, but to have the symmetry of a rooting interest from a fan perspective intersect perfectly with a strong betting interest, this is one time I’m going to enjoy the synergy and let the chips fall where they may. It’s a lot of money, but it’s not even about the money to me this time. That probably doesn’t even make sense to anyone, because it’s illogical, but that’s my reasoning. 

I had to break up my bets, so had maneuver things, a bit, but locked in now and here is what I have:

Playoffs:

15-6 +129.99 units

San Francisco ML(+102) 60 units to win 61.2 units

San Francisco ML(+104) 70 units to win 72.8 units 

San Francisco (+800) futures to win Super Bowl 10 units to win 80 units

San Francisco to beat KC in Super Bowl 10 units to win 40 units 

All in all, that is a risk of 150 units to win 280 units on the 49ers moneyline, essentially. If they win, it would put me at +390 units for the playoffs. Let’s finish this strong!

Win or lose I don't see how the bets aren't +EV. Awesome work this playoffs. Hope your boys bring it home.

Should read 150/254 +384. 

I think you are right here..BigNiner..this is a different San Francisco 49ers team going into the SuperBowl than it was with Jim Harbaugh..there was no drama in the media through the whole season..no bumping of the heads between coach and Jed York or anyone else..Jed wasn’t on the field or in the media there was zero drama. Or even player for player drama..Jerry rice was feeling young again haha..

I have an inside the locker room source that works with the team and they were telling me this team is different as far as the moral..everyone is positive and joking around having fun..compared to the other San Francisco 49ers teams since Harbaugh days they have witnessed..where they were “clicky”..they said that there is a Family/friendly environment as far as everyone in there..

Coach Shanahan said this as well to the media..that there is not one person wanting play time they all are playing for each other and are playing as a team..my point is they spoke a lot about how they all pretty much were like a family/brotherhood which was emphasized a lot..it’s a different locker room..

I’m going with the facts here as far as team play and this info to me seems like the cherry on top.. either way I too have a futures wager on them and have made an initial wager for the Super Bowl and depending on the line I may place a bit more..

Good Luck BigNiner

KC has won and covered 8 straight, the longest cover streak entering SB since ‘85 Pats (14 before SB). In the 8, KC was favored 7 times and covered by an avg of 7 pts/game. Only ‘76 Pitt, ‘76 Bal, ‘68 Bal, ‘07 Pats had higher cover margins in streaks that long. None won SB.

good luck niner..Shanahan/Garoppolo might be hearing from Belichick this week for advice..he loves the shanahans and garoppolo..took less value (2nd rounder) to put him in better situation as opposed to cleveland..

Belichick gave him advice after falcons loss: https://www.ninersnation.com/2018/1/5/16856502/patriots-espn-report-bill-belichick-49ers-kyle-shanahan-jimmy-garoppolo

-Jimmy G led the NFC and was second in the NFL in Yards Per Attempt

-Jimmy G led the NFL in 4th quarter comebacks 

-Jimmy G 4th best compl % (69.1%) despite the 3rd highest drop rate (6%)

- 4th best % of on-target throws (80.7%)

- 4th best % of bad throws (13.7%)

- Best YAC per completion (6.6)

-Kyle Shanahan with Jimmy Garoppolo: 21-5

-Kyle Shanahan without Jimmy Garoppolo 4-20

Garoppolo In the 4th quarter:

75-of-107 (70% compl)

8.33 YPA

6 TDs

1 INT

107.1 rating

Garoppolo When trailing:

117-of-161 (73%)

9.1 YPA

11 TDs

3 INTs

115.7 rating

Jimmy Garoppolo was the only QB in the NFL to finish in the top 5 in Pass TD, Comp pct and Yds per attempt during the reg. season.

Jimmy G also led all QBs in 3rd down completion % & long ball completion %.

Games in which Jimmy Garoppolo has 35 or more passing attempts:

5-1 record

8.3 yards per attempt

70% completions

14 TD

5 INT

Strength of schedule?   Big moments big players rise to the top. Who do you trust to make the play?  It's a coin toss books know it we know it.  But the over is the play.   

I think Kittle, Sanders, Bosa, and Samuel in that order. I think Garoppolo has a big game and makes the most sense to win MVP, but betting wise, Kittle and Sanders are better reaches.

Good stuff, ChOmp. Thanks for sharing 

LMAO no one who is a real capper thinks or is saying any of that stuff. Youre making this up. Where has anyone said Mostert sucks after he just shattered a playoff rushing record that would be retarded. 

This site is actually such rubbish leading up to the super bowl, all these homers (esp 9er fans) that you never hear from the other 20 weeks of the season coming in spouting BS.

9ers are overall the better team. But it's Reid's year, he gets the story book ending. No doubt in my mind. Mahomes is the new face of the NFL. It will be an exciting, high scoring game, and the Chiefs will take it.