Playoffs game 18

Besides the obvious that there are no fans, or not many, the playoffs differ this year because there is only one bye and the other games are more similar to week 17 games, where both teams come off a week of rest.

My historical data for the games with neither team has a bye will use games 17/18  data.....TB/NO and BB/BR.

1)  Divisional away dogs have been 13-5 ATS (+5.64) and 9-9 straight up.....Bucs

2)  Game 18 away dogs with greater than ten wins on the season have been:

  a) 16-16 ATS on Saturday.....Ravens

  b) 23-16 ATS on Sunday.......Browns, Bucs

 Equal to or less than tens wins as away dogs, 8-5 ATS, though only 2-4 ATS on Saturday......Rams

3)  Away dogs games 17, 18 have been 33-15 ATS (+3.05), 24-25 straight up if they won more games last season than their present opponent....Ravens

AD and playoffs = 1 and 19>game number >16 and PRSW>o:PRSW

4)  The team with the average yards per pass differential (offense to defense) has been 108-61 ATS in the first two rounds of the playoffs....35-22 ATS in game 18s.

  a)  home favorites with the better passing team..... 57-45 ATS....Chiefs, Bills

  b)  away dogs with the better passing team....37-16 ATS........Bucs 

no advantage....Rams/Packers

5)   Teams with the better scoring differential as:

   a)  Home favorites...64-64 ATS...Packers, Saints, Chiefs

   b)  Away dogs....23-10 ATS.....Ravens

6)  Teams with the better rushing yards/game differential offense to defense as:

  a)  Away dogs....43-29 ATS....Ravens, Browns.

  b)  Home favorites with the rushing advantage have been 43-41 ATS.....Packers, Saints

Plays:

1)  Chiefs/Browns OVER 55'

2)  Bucs +140

3)  Ravens +120

A team with a negative or equal point differential in game number 18,.....Browns

tA(margin)<=0 and game number=18 and p:W

1-7 ATS (-7.62), 0-8 straight up (-19.00), 8-0 OVER (+11.92)

Away dogs in the  first two rounds of the playoffs whose offensive yards per pass is greater than .7 more than their average defensive yards per pass allowed.

Team      Offensive Yards per Pass      Defensive Yards per Pass

Bucs              7.5                                      6.4

Rams            6.8                                       5.6

Ravens         6.8                                        5.9

45-27-1 ATS (+1.70), 31-43 straight up (-3.61), including 39-21 ATS if the team in question won one or zero playoff games the previous season......Rams, Ravens, Bucs

19>game number >16 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > .7 and AD

I dont like the Bills but I not a fan of the Ravens in the final 8 or final 4 if they get past this week.  Nothing against the superstar QB but he was the only thing they had going last week.  If that happens again its lights out.  Good news for the Ravens, Buffalo has issues too.  The line is moving towards the Ravens.  Will they end up a pickem or road chalk again?

I have a few queries against the Ravens because of their current ats streak but Buffalo is also on fire.  If Buffalo is a pick or better I might get involved.

Best wishes Indigo.

I still think there is a lot of Value on the Buccs FWIW

Thanks Buddy....

Away dogs in non-Super Bowl games in the playoffs with a positive  average yards per game rushing differential of at least 15 yards/game and a positive yards per pass differential.....

Bucs, Ravens, Browns, Rams.

26-9-1 ATS (+3.83) and 18-18 straight up (-.89)

playoffs=1 and C and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>0 and tA(RY-o:RY)>15 and AD

If their opponent is on at least a 2 game winning streak this moves to 13-3 ATS

Ravens, Rams, Bucs

playoffs=1 and C and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>0 and tA(RY-o:RY)>15 and AD

this shows an error, can you check it please ?

Question for you, buddy. What happens to a team in its 4th game, playing against a non-divisional opponent, after playing division opponents in 3  consecutive games. And this can include regular season spilling into the playoffs. Because I’m sure you won’t find many teams playing 3 consecutive division games just in the regular season. Thanks. 

I found something that I was looking for,  I am off Buffalo.  Thanks buddy

A team playi

A team playing a non-divisional team after playing 3 (or more) divisional opponents as an away dog have been 7-3-1 ATS in the playoffs (though 6-2 ATS in game number 17).  In the regular season they've been a mediocre 71-80 in this scenario, 31-28 ATS in December games.

playoffs and p:DIV and pp:DIV and ppp:DIV and not DIV and AD and month

Rams

It has worked fine for me....though the database has not updated to show this week's indicted teams.

my google chrome is messed up.  Time to clean it up

Plays:

Adding....

4)  Rams +6'

1)  Chiefs OVER 55'

2)  Ravens +120

3)  Bucs +140

Thanks Indigo!! Much appreciated!! 

Wow. Thank you, buddy. Very surprised by those numbers. I thought they’d be going the other way. Rams coming off 3 hard fought divisional games, with each game getting bigger in magnitude...Logically, I don’t see it (playing the Rams) but I’ll respect the trend and tease the Packers to -1. One last question. What was the SU record of those road dogs in the games you tallied? Thanks. 

@begginerboy

average line +6.3, 7-3-1 ATS (+1.55), 3-8 straight up (-4.73) overall

average total 43.7, 3-8 O/U (-4.27) 

2-1 ATS, 2-1 straight up on Saturday games.

@Indigo999

 Your message is invisible:)

Thank you!

I'd say there is a very good possibility tha  that the Ravens will outrush the Bills in their playoff game on Saturday.

How do those teams do in the playoffs on the road?

If Ihey are both playing the same game number,...that is, no team is off a bye, those away teams in the playoffs in conference games have been 35-9 ATS, covering by over 7 points per game.

If our away team won more games last season, this moves to 17-3 ATS, 18-2 straight up.....11-0 ATS and 10-1 straight up if they're an away dog.......Ravens.

playoffs = 1 and C and RY>o:RY and AD and o:game number = game number and PRSW>o:PRSW 

@Indigo999

Good luck! 

Teams that played >=3 playoffs games the season prior, playing at home the next season in the playoffs....how have they done the following year?

  1)  Playoffs first round at home 11-10 ATS, (-0.69), 13-8 straight up (+5.29).......Chiefs

  2)  Playoffs second round at home 0-5 ATS (-10.90), 3-2 ATS (-2.60)

Sagarin's power ratings have the Bills, Ravens and Chiefs all within one point of each other, so the Chiefs will likely be a field goal or less as a home favorite should they get by the Browns this weekend.

I'll be fading the Chiefs next weekend should they win their first round playoff game.

playoffs = 1 and C and tpS(playoffs)>=3 and H and game number

Mind Boggling how the ram's who lost to The Jet's in week 15 are getting so much respect. why because they beat a crappy seattle team. Green Bay will Destroy this team It should be a Double Digit line but Vegas is trying to get enough suckers on the ram's and they are.. 

@carguy342005

You sound angry about it.....if everyone agreed with you, the Packers would be -24.

Differing opinions are what makes a market, so count your blessings that there are vast amounts of people that disagree with you.

Here's an interesting one.

A game 17 home favorite on Sunday that lost their last game and won the game prior to that.....3-12 ATS

1-8 ATS, 4-5 straight up  if off a bye.....Chiefs

playoffs = 1 and HF and pp:W and p:L and day = Sunday and game number = 17 and rest

K.C is 1-12 in playoffs when not leading at halftime

Double digit favorites are 6-1 SUATS in this round Since 2011, HT Score 34.7 ppg & allow20.00 pts ( K.C.)

Since 1970 teams that won both reg season meetings are 14-7 in rematch  ( N.Or )