All Forums | NFL Betting

*** Pound the Lions this Week and Call it a Day! POTY ***

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 26795
Posts: 214
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 601
Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by Dabullz23:

Let me throw some numbers out there:

These are numbers on the game from one site...and the line really hasn't moved.  Seems just like the pattern from the Packers VS Bears game last week, and I correctly stuck with the Packers.  Not going to out think myself on this one either...and I actually got a bad line early in the week at -4, now at -3.5...good luck all:




Atlanta Falcons       $1,805,355     96.63%
Detroit Lions           $62,920          3.37%



Hit em hard this week


U telling us that Vegas knows they are loosing money yet they LOWER the line so they will loose more $$$??????  U must know something Vegas guys don't know then.  

ATL will WIN this game by 3 because of a back door cover by DET.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2005
Posts: 3852
Posted: #52

I like your angles but Detroit in there last six games are

0-6 SU

1-5 ATS

They find every way to lose and not cover they cant get out of there own way. Not sure why that will change on saturday.

 

 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 15757
Posted: #53
Agreed on the Lions
Good spot for them, if they have not quit
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 601
Posted: #54
I learned in the NFL if it's look too EZ, stay away.  ATL beat the def champ easily and Lions loss to the lowly Cards, yet, ATL only favor by 4 and now 3.5?  It's a dome game too so ATL should have no problem right with field condition.  It seemed like a no-brainer to take ATL.  I will stay away from this game.  Better ones on the board.  
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2007
Posts: 628
Posted: #55
not telling you anything...just showing how much has been bet on the game.  No need to get angry my man.  Just very lopsided.

Good luck
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2012
Posts: 423
Posted: #56
GOOD STUFF!!,,GOOD LUCK!
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 9317
Posted: #57
It's funny how many people say this is a terrible bet. Throw out the records and these two teams are almost identical. Both have strong pass offenses, no run game, and a below average defense. Falcons commit less penalty's and turnovers but that's where the +4 at home comes in.

Take a look at the Lions in the last month.

1) Lost to the Packers by 4 and by 7, both games they had a comfortable lead.

2) Lost to the Texans in overtime by 3, had a comfortable lead

3) Lost to the Colts by 2, had a comfortable lead.

Falcons when playing below average teams,

1) needed a miracle to comeback and beat the panthers
2) barely held on to beating the raiders in a dome
3) got crushed by the panthers
4) barely survived the Cardinals

Yeah, such a terrible bet



 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 9317
Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by InVegas:

LC do you have any over/under plays this week, to go along with these 2?



Post #10
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 2964
Posted: #59
plus atl is off a blowout win....facing a team ( at home).....off a blowout loss....
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 4403
Posted: #60
LC you are not getting my point. The Lions could cover or even win. Afterall no one has blown them off the field at home. The problem I have is justifying it as a POY. This is nowhere near a POY. How can it be? Based on what trends/systems/situations? U have a team an expert in losing tight games and a team that wins tight games. A team with a terrible turn over ratio and a team with a great turnover ratio. A team that flat out quit last weekend and a another team that made a BIG  statement.

I don't believe Atlanta is all that but it's sure better then Detroit thats for sure! Atlanta has more motivation, momentum right now. a POY with a 1-5 ats in the last 6 games is an awful POY (even if u hit u will sweat). U are just too stubborn to admit the words POY should never have been mentioned in this thread. 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 490
Posted: #61
sounds like you will be lumping on the falcons then mack off of what you just said ?
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 9317
Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:

LC you are not getting my point. The Lions could cover or even win. Afterall no one has blown them off the field at home. The problem I have is justifying it as a POY. This is nowhere near a POY. How can it be? Based on what trends/systems/situations? U have a team an expert in losing tight games and a team that wins tight games. A team with a terrible turn over ratio and a team with a great turnover ratio. A team that flat out quit last weekend and a another team that made a BIG  statement.

I don't believe Atlanta is all that but it's sure better then Detroit thats for sure! Atlanta has more motivation, momentum right now. a POY with a 1-5 ats in the last 6 games is an awful POY (even if u hit u will sweat). U are just too stubborn to admit the words POY should never have been mentioned in this thread. 


ATL just shutout the defending superbowl champions. No game this whole season would take as much emotions and energy away from a team. ATL will come out flat, i promise you.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 31
Posted: #63
Did you watch the game? They were up 14-0 in the 1st quarter. They cruised comfortably to the finish line from about halfway through the 3rd quarter. They were on the Giants 1yd line numerous times and in fact could have put up a 40-burger quite easily. If the Giants on the hand had given them a game, I would understand your logic. Regardless, anything can happen, I wish you BOL this weekend
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 6580
Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



ATL just shutout the defending superbowl champions. No game this whole season would take as much emotions and energy away from a team. ATL will come out flat, i promise you.

For what it's worth, Colin Cowherd and R.J. Bell agree with your thinking about teams coming out flat following a big win and teams coming out strong after a bad loss. 

They spoke about public perception being very narrow minded and relying to much on the previous weeks results. 


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 4403
Posted: #65
LC fair enough. I hope u win to be honest. For me it's a no play. neither team is trustworthy for me..
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 10863
Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

It's funny how many people say this is a terrible bet. Throw out the records and these two teams are almost identical. Both have strong pass offenses, no run game, and a below average defense. Falcons commit less penalty's and turnovers but that's where the +4 at home comes in.

Take a look at the Lions in the last month.

1) Lost to the Packers by 4 and by 7, both games they had a comfortable lead.

2) Lost to the Texans in overtime by 3, had a comfortable lead

3) Lost to the Colts by 2, had a comfortable lead.

Falcons when playing below average teams,

1) needed a miracle to comeback and beat the panthers
2) barely held on to beating the raiders in a dome
3) got crushed by the panthers
4) barely survived the Cardinals

Yeah, such a terrible bet



    Not sure that having the #4 scoring defense, allowing only 18.5 pts./gm , qualifies the Falcons as a below average defense.  There's only 3 teams ahead of them in pts. allowed per game, and that's SF, Sea, and Chi. and that's by a fg or less per game. On the other hand, the Lions allow almost 28 pts./game.  I think that it's not only the less T.O.'s and less penalties that make them a 4 pt. favorite, as obviously the difference in points allowed per game was a factored in, when setting this line. They also dominated the Giants on the ground and t.o.p. last week, so to say they can't run the ball is also not totally correct. Granted they haven't ran that effectively all season, but that's more of a scheming, and game plan factor, rather than the inability to do so.  I expect to see quite a bit of running, early and often, unless they find themselves behind out of the gate. I'd be very surprised to not see the Falcons score at least the 28 point average or more, that the Lions give up per game, and not sure if Detroit can do that much better than Eli did last week, at least not the 24 points I think they'll need to come close to covering.  I'm not knocking your play, just happen to be on the other side.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 3117
Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:


that's crazy. I don't care if there is a 456 - 0 trend in this game. Having a bad injury ravaged 4 and 10 team (1-5 ats last six games) poor turnover ratio as a POY against a 12-2 dome team ( good turnover ratio) playing a non divisional foe in a dome with one win away from homefield AND coming off their best performance last week is the most wreckless POY from a respected capper I have ever seen on Covers. If u mentioned low stakes standard bet I might at least understand tat but POY!!Come on LC! 

Listen Detroit could cover or even win after all this is the NFL, but no one can convince me the Lions are a POY in this spot. It's Falcons or no play for me...Id never forgive myself if I took Detroit and then watch the commit turnover after turnover...Detroit as a POY in this game no matter what the trends are is lunacy..Even if it hits...

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2008
Posts: 4049
Posted: #68
Rule #1 of sportsbetting - teams are never as good as their best game and never as bad as their worst game... thought we learned that lesson already after watching the giants and cardinals the last two weeks....
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2008
Posts: 4049
Posted: #69
... lions will bounce back for sure and play well infront of their home fans.... i like the lions + the points, but not quite enough to call it a poty.... will be tailing you on it for a regular play....
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2006
Posts: 4106
Posted: #70
yes I'm betting on the Lions because their egoes were hurt last week?? Maybe for the whole wasted season ,,,I can't bet on them with your money
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 50021
Posted: #71

Michigan > Lions.......

To lose to the Hapless Cardinals by 28 was a disgrace.....

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 10863
Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

... lions will bounce back for sure and play well infront of their home fans.... i like the lions + the points, but not quite enough to call it a poty.... will be tailing you on it for a regular play....
   What makes you think that a team that's 2-4 at home on the season, and 4-10 overall will all of a sudden play well, just because they're in front of their home fans.  They had an opportunity to do that Thanksgiving and didn't, and at 4-10, if you throw out Seattle's 9-5 record, the other three teams they've beaten have an overall record of 13-28-1. Atlanta would have to come in flat as a pancake for them to cover, let alone win outright. I just don't see the logic behind backing them be it a regular play, GOW, GOM, or GOY.  Call me a fool, but it's the Falcons or no bet in my book.  BOL
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 50021
Posted: #73
222222222222's.....U got it....
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 3117
Posted: #74

Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

Rule #1 of sportsbetting - teams are never as good as their best game and never as bad as their worst game... thought we learned that lesson already after watching the giants and cardinals the last two weeks....

As already mentioned its been a trend all year for both teams.

Atlanta finds ways to win

Detroit finds ways to lose.  Keep in mind 3 of 4 Lions victories they where losing and came from behind in the 4th. 

Also keep in mind as already mentioned.  We are missing I think its 9 starters. NINE!!! of 22 YIKES!!!

We are undisciplined.  Heck even our coach has cost us a game literally by himself!

Altanta NEEDS this game to get momentum going.  They will use this as practice.  I honestly do not see any way in hell Detroit wins.  Will they get a back door possible.  But dont count on it.  Atlanta rolls.  31-17

 
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 10863
Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by shrimp1958:

222222222222's.....U got it....
Speaking of getting it, I think we've got all three of your plays this week Shrimp, and with a little luck the Purple Birdies also. Just because the G-Men need to win doesn't mean they will, does it? 
All Forums | NFL Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright � 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.