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Public Perception vs Reality - Colts/Steelers - Packers/Saints

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Posted: #51
Not sure what your interpretation of Pitts perception is after mnf but the final score of Pitt/hou definitely makes it look like a closer game than it was.  3 mins left up 30-16 w the ball Pitt was still throwing for god knows what reason ( Haley a nut job). Any other logical OC is running the ball and taking the win.  Throwing kept an extra 1-1:30 on the clock for the garbage td by hou.  
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


The thing that keeps sitting in my mind about Seattle this week is their recent travel...Seattle is already a lesser team on the road...now consider that they traveled cross country to play in Wash, then back home on a short week just to get beat up by Dallas and their running game, then more than half way across the country to St. Louis.  Now they are traveling AGAIN across country to play in an early game on the east coast in a warmer climate?

I know, the defending super bowl champs losing three in a row? Inconceivable!

Good point that is a brutal schedule plus a bottomed out panthers price I'll def be on car
 
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Posted: #53
LC...Been going back and forth on the Bengals....they are very depleted on the defense front and linebackers......but if AJ Green is cleared I might have to  take a shot on them....just a gut feeling.......
 
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Posted: #54
You guys are over thinking the Colts be Pitts game!!!! LMAO. Pitts horrible D (let down from that last win). 2 Words. ANDREW LUCK, number one Offense. TAKE COLTS. COLTS 31- 17 SMH
 
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Posted: #55
You guys are over thinking the Colts be Pitts game!!!! LMAO. Pitts horrible D (let down from that last win). 2 Words. ANDREW LUCK, number one Offense. TAKE COLTS. COLTS 31- 17 SMH

Hey buddy...Handicapping this game shows the line should be at 1.5 - 2 points favouring Colts anything more la Actually Value on Pittsburg..... Less Side with Colts!!!Barring Weather in Pittsburg on Gameday!!
 
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Posted: #56
Yep, the right side in both games and I'll be all-in with best bets on Saints and Steelers........................
 
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Posted: #57
Decided to stay just on the Steelers and Saints although I feel that the Bengals and Panthers are the right sides as well


 
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Posted: #58

Good write up..... however

 

Sometimes perception is reality....reality is in GB case that they have been getting better week by week and NO is all over the board sporting 2 wins vs the bottom of the league. Carolina caught a GB team that is probably the most well rounded it has been since 2010 SB. Defense is playing EXTREMELY WELL and was built for this type of game sunday night. Packers WILL win the TO battle and win the game because of it...

Besides under payton NO has never been favored by less than 2 at home. This opened at -1 doesn't that say all we need to know?!?!

 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Decided to stay just on the Steelers and Saints although I feel that the Bengals and Panthers are the right sides as well



They are.  Panthers top play
 
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Posted: #60
4 team parlay Pitt NO cincy and panthers 
 
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Posted: #61
Why pittsburgh? They needed 2 turnovers within the 10 yard lines of Houston to beat them? Indi should have no problem moving the ball against the atrocious Pitts D . Indi D is underrated . Indi by 10
 
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Posted: #62
public perception, saints at home is an auto lock...reality, saints are just not that good this year, HFA or not, this team is trending down, missing 2 RBs this week, prob starting a far from healthy jimmy graham, could barely beat/cover against 2 sub par teams at home this year...every wanna be sharp this side the mississippi automatically thinks NO covers bc theyre at home and they know saints at home is always a lock...SHTOOPS...GB ML for the 
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by cdubz34:

Good write up..... however

 

Sometimes perception is reality....reality is in GB case that they have been getting better week by week and NO is all over the board sporting 2 wins vs the bottom of the league. Carolina caught a GB team that is probably the most well rounded it has been since 2010 SB. Defense is playing EXTREMELY WELL  and was built for this type of game sunday night.  Packers WILL win the TO battle and win the game because of it...

Besides under payton NO has never been favored by less than 2 at home. This opened at -1 doesn't that say all we need to know?!?! 


 
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Posted: #64
besides a quick click on the matchups for this game shows last time they met in 08 season they were favored by 1 under Payton doesn't that say all we need to know?!?! 
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:

Not sure what your interpretation of Pitts perception is after mnf but the final score of Pitt/hou definitely makes it look like a closer game than it was.  3 mins left up 30-16 w the ball Pitt was still throwing for god knows what reason ( Haley a nut job). Any other logical OC is running the ball and taking the win.  Throwing kept an extra 1-1:30 on the clock for the garbage td by hou.  

That's quite an interesting POV.  I agree with your take that the final score was not indicative of the game...but in the opposite sense.  Pitt had no business winning or even covering.  24 points in 2 minutes, 21 thanks to Houston imploding to end the half?  Other than that, Houston D didn't allow them to even sniff a TD.

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by GhostfacePitta:

public perception, saints at home is an auto lock...reality, saints are just not that good this year, HFA or not, this team is trending down, missing 2 RBs this week, prob starting a far from healthy jimmy graham, could barely beat/cover against 2 sub par teams at home this year...every wanna be sharp this side the mississippi automatically thinks NO covers bc theyre at home and they know saints at home is always a lock...SHTOOPS...GB ML for the 

If you are gonna use the public perception angle shouldn't you also consider GB's public perception and Rodger's "relax" statement?  Ever since then, GB has been on a roll and looked good.  Saints, not so much.

All those things you said about NO + GB looking like a contender recently and NO opened as a pick and is now -2.5 with much more bets on GB?  Basically all GB has to do is win?  LOL.  I'm on the Saints.
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


If you are gonna use the public perception angle shouldn't you also consider GB's public perception and Rodger's "relax" statement?  Ever since then, GB has been on a roll and looked good.  Saints, not so much.

All those things you said about NO + GB looking like a contender recently and NO opened as a pick and is now -2.5 with much more bets on GB?  Basically all GB has to do is win?  LOL.  I'm on the Saints.

when did i ever say anything about NO and GB being contenders? must be confusing me w/ someone else...all i said was, people assume NO is auto lock at home and i think they need to look a bit deeper than that...realize how bad this saints team has looked this season, on the road, as well as at home and now theyre facing a very hot GB team, capable of playing at a high level on the road, and w/o 2 RBs and possibly w/o Graham or at best, a seriously hindered Graham?...anything can happen, but ill take team thats playing better football thats getting +$$$ and fade the wanna be sharps that think NO cant lose at home...
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by GhostfacePitta:


when did i ever say anything about NO and GB being contenders? must be confusing me w/ someone else...all i said was, people assume NO is auto lock at home and i think they need to look a bit deeper than that...realize how bad this saints team has looked this season, on the road, as well as at home and now theyre facing a very hot GB team, capable of playing at a high level on the road, and w/o 2 RBs and possibly w/o Graham or at best, a seriously hindered Graham?...anything can happen, but ill take team thats playing better football thats getting +$$$ and fade the wanna be sharps that think NO cant lose at home...

Sorry, I didn't convey my intent properly...the second paragraph was my summary of the situation.  

In other words, Everything you said above is true.  GB is by all accounts 5x better than NO right now, regardless of NO being at home or not, which in this season is almost a non factor.  GB is playing solid football and (IMHO making a case as a contender and player in the play off race).  you know this.  I know this.  The joe public knows this ever since Rodger's "relax" comment that ESPN meticulously showed and referred to again the following couple of weeks after GB wins.  I can guarantee you VEGAS knows this.  And what do they do, they release GB GETTING points or just needing to win?  sounds like a guarantee winner don't you think?  Do you think Vegas makes mistakes like this?  Or do you think they are pulling reverse reverse psychology on everyone?

In terms of people siding with a bet, I think they will put more weight into GB looking so much better than NO vs. NO home field, which I doubt most general gamblers pay attention to anyways as they don't really think about situations in general, just which team is "better".

Anyways, long winded...but long story short...Vegas releasing a NO favorite line is moreso to play on the perception that GB is that much better than NO and not so much that NO is a boss at home.

Either, gl with your bet bro.  
 
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Posted: #69
Good luck LC...playing Saints but taking Colts....Jets, Bears,......looking at Bengals too......BOL as always.....
 
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Posted: #70
Kick azz tomorrow LC 
 
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Posted: #71
LC...Hedged The colts pick....took Pittsburgh +3.5....that seems the right side now....BOL...
 
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Posted: #72
What many people are failing to see is that the Colts are a legitimate title contender this year.. I have them in the AFC title game @ Denver.. I had Pitt in the TNF game and was lucky to get that win.. Not impressed at all with Pitt.. Tomlin caught lightening in a bottle in that 2nd qtr vs. HOU. Tomlin is a dope and would've been playing for his job today..
Andrew the Giant takes care of business tomorrow.. Goodluck 
 
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Posted: #73
 like all your plays....  GL
 
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Posted: #74
anapolis450-2.5Pittsburgh99+2.5
Indianapolis846-3Pittsburgh331+3
Indianapolis602-3.5Pittsburgh272+3.5
Indianapolis1898Pittsburgh702

 
 
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 Steelers and big Ben will be lucky if they finish 8-8.
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