You can never really know because it is so subtle and there are always different ways that things can go. If you are really dialed in you can narrow storylines down. An example for me was last year. I had it narrowed down to 2 stories before the playoffs that I felt certain of. Either Peyton was going out on top because of is model career or Cam was going to get the torched passed to him during the height of racial tensions. I rode that to huge playoff payoff. When I saw the Super Bowl spread come out and it was so low vs the way Carolina had pounded everyone to get there was the point where I thought, in my mind, that I became certain that it was going to be Peyton's night. So I loaded up on the Denver ML. That was the most clear that it has ever been for me.
I had a friend that did the same thing in Ray Lewis' last season, but I never bought in to that one and he ended up being right.
I guess we saw last year's super bowl a little differently. I looked at the line and thought it was high based on my ratings and basically everyone else's that are published. Regular season game on a neutral field and its 3 points lower IMO.
Super bowl is one game oddsmakers certainly don't want to "gamble on" with the huge exposure. Line was set artificially high to cover their behind since since a line based on actual power ratings would have left them extremely heavy on the Panthers (this is the one game the uninformed money outweighs smart money. At least as far as sides and totals go).
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Quote Originally Posted by SUPEREAGLE43:
You can never really know because it is so subtle and there are always different ways that things can go. If you are really dialed in you can narrow storylines down. An example for me was last year. I had it narrowed down to 2 stories before the playoffs that I felt certain of. Either Peyton was going out on top because of is model career or Cam was going to get the torched passed to him during the height of racial tensions. I rode that to huge playoff payoff. When I saw the Super Bowl spread come out and it was so low vs the way Carolina had pounded everyone to get there was the point where I thought, in my mind, that I became certain that it was going to be Peyton's night. So I loaded up on the Denver ML. That was the most clear that it has ever been for me.
I had a friend that did the same thing in Ray Lewis' last season, but I never bought in to that one and he ended up being right.
I guess we saw last year's super bowl a little differently. I looked at the line and thought it was high based on my ratings and basically everyone else's that are published. Regular season game on a neutral field and its 3 points lower IMO.
Super bowl is one game oddsmakers certainly don't want to "gamble on" with the huge exposure. Line was set artificially high to cover their behind since since a line based on actual power ratings would have left them extremely heavy on the Panthers (this is the one game the uninformed money outweighs smart money. At least as far as sides and totals go).
I guess we saw last year's super bowl a little differently. I looked at the line and thought it was high based on my ratings and basically everyone else's that are published. Regular season game on a neutral field and its 3 points lower IMO.
Super bowl is one game oddsmakers certainly don't want to "gamble on" with the huge exposure. Line was set artificially high to cover their behind since since a line based on actual power ratings would have left them extremely heavy on the Panthers (this is the one game the uninformed money outweighs smart money. At least as far as sides and totals go).
While you may have had a bead on the closeness of the 2 teams, you were in the minority. Public perception was all over Carolina. Keep in mind it's all about the public masses because that's what drives advertising dollars, TV viewers. Public mass is also what drives betting markets. So it's not about your personal view of how you thought it would go down, but what the masses think. You may be an astute handicapper, but 99% of the public isn't. All Joe Public saw was Carolina pounding everyone. Joe Public in general neither knows nor. cares about odds, lines setting, etc... That's why basically everyone who bets loses if they do it long enough. If you research back you will see that massive public bets were on the eye candy team Carolina.
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Quote Originally Posted by rm990:
I guess we saw last year's super bowl a little differently. I looked at the line and thought it was high based on my ratings and basically everyone else's that are published. Regular season game on a neutral field and its 3 points lower IMO.
Super bowl is one game oddsmakers certainly don't want to "gamble on" with the huge exposure. Line was set artificially high to cover their behind since since a line based on actual power ratings would have left them extremely heavy on the Panthers (this is the one game the uninformed money outweighs smart money. At least as far as sides and totals go).
While you may have had a bead on the closeness of the 2 teams, you were in the minority. Public perception was all over Carolina. Keep in mind it's all about the public masses because that's what drives advertising dollars, TV viewers. Public mass is also what drives betting markets. So it's not about your personal view of how you thought it would go down, but what the masses think. You may be an astute handicapper, but 99% of the public isn't. All Joe Public saw was Carolina pounding everyone. Joe Public in general neither knows nor. cares about odds, lines setting, etc... That's why basically everyone who bets loses if they do it long enough. If you research back you will see that massive public bets were on the eye candy team Carolina.
In the course over a 10 year timespan I have gambled over $100,000. This included NFL, NBA, elections, and Texas Holdem. Also Iwould like to note I have a very bad gambling addiction that led me to being extremely depressed for 5 of those years as I thought that killing myself was a better choice than living. I do not feel this way anymore and stopped feeling this way about two years ago and even stopped gambling for a whole year.
with my experience with gambling I can honestly tell you that the NFL i not rigged. I need to note that being a ref is not easy. its a million times different watching it on tv then being a ref in the middle of it with 100,000 people in stadium screaming, all blood pumping. you dont see everything. and refs are humans not robots. everyone makes mistakes.
Major thing i want to say. Any Sunday is any given sunday. anything can happen. The shittiest team in the league could go out and beat the greatest team in the league at any given sunday. you never know when that is gonna happen. its any given sunday
when you gamble only gamble with money that you would not killyourself over if you lost. do not gamble money that if you lost you could not support and feed and put a roof over you wife and childrens heads.
Any given sunday you could have won money if you would have bet on the teams that you did not play
and you could loose money on the teams if you would have played.
any given sunday
First off, well done on beating your addiction. Kudos! Secondly, did you watch Houston and Oakland. If so, you would have seen when the replay was invoked that the Houston RB clearly made the line to gain for a 1st down. The officials totally disregarded the replay and went with the call on the field. That was no mistake. The clear as day replay proved this. Any of the other blown calls could be chalked up to human error, but if you look at the total body of work plus the obvious disregard of replay and still can't see it, then your head is in the sand.
This was the biggest and most obvious example of a game I have ever seen. If this particular game didn't cause you to pause and open your mind, then your belief is unchangable, not that any of this matters but it is an interesting topic of conversation.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ilost20grand:
The NFL is not rigged.
In the course over a 10 year timespan I have gambled over $100,000. This included NFL, NBA, elections, and Texas Holdem. Also Iwould like to note I have a very bad gambling addiction that led me to being extremely depressed for 5 of those years as I thought that killing myself was a better choice than living. I do not feel this way anymore and stopped feeling this way about two years ago and even stopped gambling for a whole year.
with my experience with gambling I can honestly tell you that the NFL i not rigged. I need to note that being a ref is not easy. its a million times different watching it on tv then being a ref in the middle of it with 100,000 people in stadium screaming, all blood pumping. you dont see everything. and refs are humans not robots. everyone makes mistakes.
Major thing i want to say. Any Sunday is any given sunday. anything can happen. The shittiest team in the league could go out and beat the greatest team in the league at any given sunday. you never know when that is gonna happen. its any given sunday
when you gamble only gamble with money that you would not killyourself over if you lost. do not gamble money that if you lost you could not support and feed and put a roof over you wife and childrens heads.
Any given sunday you could have won money if you would have bet on the teams that you did not play
and you could loose money on the teams if you would have played.
any given sunday
First off, well done on beating your addiction. Kudos! Secondly, did you watch Houston and Oakland. If so, you would have seen when the replay was invoked that the Houston RB clearly made the line to gain for a 1st down. The officials totally disregarded the replay and went with the call on the field. That was no mistake. The clear as day replay proved this. Any of the other blown calls could be chalked up to human error, but if you look at the total body of work plus the obvious disregard of replay and still can't see it, then your head is in the sand.
This was the biggest and most obvious example of a game I have ever seen. If this particular game didn't cause you to pause and open your mind, then your belief is unchangable, not that any of this matters but it is an interesting topic of conversation.
While you may have had a bead on the closeness of the 2 teams, you were in the minority. Public perception was all over Carolina. Keep in mind it's all about the public masses because that's what drives advertising dollars, TV viewers. Public mass is also what drives betting markets. So it's not about your personal view of how you thought it would go down, but what the masses think. You may be an astute handicapper, but 99% of the public isn't. All Joe Public saw was Carolina pounding everyone. Joe Public in general neither knows nor. cares about odds, lines setting, etc... That's why basically everyone who bets loses if they do it long enough. If you research back you will see that massive public bets were on the eye candy team Carolina.
So after reading this, I think we agree on last year's super bowl line?? We both thought it was a few points high, right?
My assertion was basically that in a game where the handle is as large as the super bowl, oddsmakers need to be much more concerned with equal action. As you said, most players were willing to lay whatever number they had to on Carolina but anyone who actually power rated the game had to be on Denver +5.5. I don't think there was any kind of fixing/rigging.... Just some very risk averse bookmaking and a game played by 2 of the lowest rated teams to ever make a super bowl.
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Quote Originally Posted by SUPEREAGLE43:
While you may have had a bead on the closeness of the 2 teams, you were in the minority. Public perception was all over Carolina. Keep in mind it's all about the public masses because that's what drives advertising dollars, TV viewers. Public mass is also what drives betting markets. So it's not about your personal view of how you thought it would go down, but what the masses think. You may be an astute handicapper, but 99% of the public isn't. All Joe Public saw was Carolina pounding everyone. Joe Public in general neither knows nor. cares about odds, lines setting, etc... That's why basically everyone who bets loses if they do it long enough. If you research back you will see that massive public bets were on the eye candy team Carolina.
So after reading this, I think we agree on last year's super bowl line?? We both thought it was a few points high, right?
My assertion was basically that in a game where the handle is as large as the super bowl, oddsmakers need to be much more concerned with equal action. As you said, most players were willing to lay whatever number they had to on Carolina but anyone who actually power rated the game had to be on Denver +5.5. I don't think there was any kind of fixing/rigging.... Just some very risk averse bookmaking and a game played by 2 of the lowest rated teams to ever make a super bowl.
Coach Jackie Sherril said "all football games are ultimately decided by 1-3 plays over the course of a game." Think about that. It's incredibly easy to influence a game if the team of choice isn't getting the job done on their own merit.
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Coach Jackie Sherril said "all football games are ultimately decided by 1-3 plays over the course of a game." Think about that. It's incredibly easy to influence a game if the team of choice isn't getting the job done on their own merit.
So after reading this, I think we agree on last year's super bowl line?? We both thought it was a few points high, right?
My assertion was basically that in a game where the handle is as large as the super bowl, oddsmakers need to be much more concerned with equal action. As you said, most players were willing to lay whatever number they had to on Carolina but anyone who actually power rated the game had to be on Denver +5.5. I don't think there was any kind of fixing/rigging.... Just some very risk averse bookmaking and a game played by 2 of the lowest rated teams to ever make a super bowl.
I am a terrible handicapper. I am Joe Public. The difference is that I know I am Joe Public and what that means. I thought that the line should have been higher and that it was too good to be true. I wanted to pound Carolina. But because my knowledge, IMO, goes much deeper than what's on the surface I was able to make myself play Denver.
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Quote Originally Posted by rm990:
So after reading this, I think we agree on last year's super bowl line?? We both thought it was a few points high, right?
My assertion was basically that in a game where the handle is as large as the super bowl, oddsmakers need to be much more concerned with equal action. As you said, most players were willing to lay whatever number they had to on Carolina but anyone who actually power rated the game had to be on Denver +5.5. I don't think there was any kind of fixing/rigging.... Just some very risk averse bookmaking and a game played by 2 of the lowest rated teams to ever make a super bowl.
I am a terrible handicapper. I am Joe Public. The difference is that I know I am Joe Public and what that means. I thought that the line should have been higher and that it was too good to be true. I wanted to pound Carolina. But because my knowledge, IMO, goes much deeper than what's on the surface I was able to make myself play Denver.
Your whole life is rigged but that's another story. People seem to think that all the refs, players, coaches, owners, mascots, everybody has to be in on it. Then they say "but they're already making millions, why would they throw a game." Games can be swayed by a few calls. They've made it so everything is a judgement call and you don't know what's a catch, a fumble, a TD, nothin. They can call whatever, however they choose. How could you have watched the SB last year and think everything is played out fairly. As much $ as the NFL generates and you don't think there's any corruption? The NFL is a huge propaganda machine and if you can't see that then you are truly sleep. Here's my favorite... "But why would they lie to us?"
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Your whole life is rigged but that's another story. People seem to think that all the refs, players, coaches, owners, mascots, everybody has to be in on it. Then they say "but they're already making millions, why would they throw a game." Games can be swayed by a few calls. They've made it so everything is a judgement call and you don't know what's a catch, a fumble, a TD, nothin. They can call whatever, however they choose. How could you have watched the SB last year and think everything is played out fairly. As much $ as the NFL generates and you don't think there's any corruption? The NFL is a huge propaganda machine and if you can't see that then you are truly sleep. Here's my favorite... "But why would they lie to us?"
Ok I do believe that the Super Bowl match up has already been determined ....... however, as in any religion the path is already paved.
So with that I can go out on a major limb here. 1) originally I thought it was gonna be Denver Broncos with the rare repeat in Houston (Super Bowl 51)
2) today I am staying at the Link hotel in Vegas I just wagered 3,300 on Colts to win Super Bowl at 40-1
I feel that Andrew Lucks year is this year (I know the chances of making playoffs are not that great) hence the name "Luck"
Andrew Luck gets his rematch with Brady and the colts go into the Stage of Texas and run wild on Seahawks or Dallas (not sure on NFC but o have my money on Seattle
Good luck everybody ........ Patriots look like he obvious winner however I think the surprise outcome happens
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Ok I do believe that the Super Bowl match up has already been determined ....... however, as in any religion the path is already paved.
So with that I can go out on a major limb here. 1) originally I thought it was gonna be Denver Broncos with the rare repeat in Houston (Super Bowl 51)
2) today I am staying at the Link hotel in Vegas I just wagered 3,300 on Colts to win Super Bowl at 40-1
I feel that Andrew Lucks year is this year (I know the chances of making playoffs are not that great) hence the name "Luck"
Andrew Luck gets his rematch with Brady and the colts go into the Stage of Texas and run wild on Seahawks or Dallas (not sure on NFC but o have my money on Seattle
Good luck everybody ........ Patriots look like he obvious winner however I think the surprise outcome happens
Ok I do believe that the Super Bowl match up has already been determined ....... however, as in any religion the path is already paved.
So with that I can go out on a major limb here. 1) originally I thought it was gonna be Denver Broncos with the rare repeat in Houston (Super Bowl 51)
2) today I am staying at the Link hotel in Vegas I just wagered 3,300 on Colts to win Super Bowl at 40-1
I feel that Andrew Lucks year is this year (I know the chances of making playoffs are not that great) hence the name "Luck"
Andrew Luck gets his rematch with Brady and the colts go into the Stage of Texas and run wild on Seahawks or Dallas (not sure on NFC but o have my money on Seattle
Good luck everybody ........ Patriots look like he obvious winner however I think the surprise outcome happens
Good luck on the Colts bet. I like them but situationally speaking they're up against it. They need to win the next 2 (plus get some help). By my calculations, if you just bet them the next 6 games on the money line (6th and final being the super bowl) and keep rolling your initial 3300 investment, you'd stick about 600k profit in your pocket. As opposed to the 132,000 you're currently capped at if that bet hits. Now I realize that would involve being in Vegas and actually getting the bets down..... So you will need to use some of your bankroll (formed from the initial 3300 plus winnings) to fund the trips. Throw in some money for your time to make the potential 5 extras trips and you can still pull down double the profit you otherwise would have....
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Quote Originally Posted by Gavinnick:
Ok I do believe that the Super Bowl match up has already been determined ....... however, as in any religion the path is already paved.
So with that I can go out on a major limb here. 1) originally I thought it was gonna be Denver Broncos with the rare repeat in Houston (Super Bowl 51)
2) today I am staying at the Link hotel in Vegas I just wagered 3,300 on Colts to win Super Bowl at 40-1
I feel that Andrew Lucks year is this year (I know the chances of making playoffs are not that great) hence the name "Luck"
Andrew Luck gets his rematch with Brady and the colts go into the Stage of Texas and run wild on Seahawks or Dallas (not sure on NFC but o have my money on Seattle
Good luck everybody ........ Patriots look like he obvious winner however I think the surprise outcome happens
Good luck on the Colts bet. I like them but situationally speaking they're up against it. They need to win the next 2 (plus get some help). By my calculations, if you just bet them the next 6 games on the money line (6th and final being the super bowl) and keep rolling your initial 3300 investment, you'd stick about 600k profit in your pocket. As opposed to the 132,000 you're currently capped at if that bet hits. Now I realize that would involve being in Vegas and actually getting the bets down..... So you will need to use some of your bankroll (formed from the initial 3300 plus winnings) to fund the trips. Throw in some money for your time to make the potential 5 extras trips and you can still pull down double the profit you otherwise would have....
The reason that's even a possibility is because the true odds of the Colts winning the super bowl are around 800-1. But like I said, I do think they can play with some of the top teams.... It's all situational
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The reason that's even a possibility is because the true odds of the Colts winning the super bowl are around 800-1. But like I said, I do think they can play with some of the top teams.... It's all situational
The Colts, in their current condition, do nothing for the NFL financially. They won't make a run because they aren't very good. If they were to get hot nobody really cares, therefore they would be up against the NFL's business model. This means they will be squashed quickly. Watch the Raiders. Not only are they a good team, but they are GREAT for business. The NFL's mouth is watering over them finally putting a decent product on the field. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the AFC torched is passed this year to Carr and the Raiders. That is actually what I fully expect to happen. They are set to be the dynasty of the next 10+ years. As bad as they want Luck to be the poster boy he just doesn't have the charisma to do it. I think Carr is in the middle of snatching that role before our very eyes. I don't have a feel for exactly what's happening in the NFC right now, but I don't think its Cowboys just yet. They are a little behind the Raiders in progress right now as a team.
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The Colts, in their current condition, do nothing for the NFL financially. They won't make a run because they aren't very good. If they were to get hot nobody really cares, therefore they would be up against the NFL's business model. This means they will be squashed quickly. Watch the Raiders. Not only are they a good team, but they are GREAT for business. The NFL's mouth is watering over them finally putting a decent product on the field. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the AFC torched is passed this year to Carr and the Raiders. That is actually what I fully expect to happen. They are set to be the dynasty of the next 10+ years. As bad as they want Luck to be the poster boy he just doesn't have the charisma to do it. I think Carr is in the middle of snatching that role before our very eyes. I don't have a feel for exactly what's happening in the NFC right now, but I don't think its Cowboys just yet. They are a little behind the Raiders in progress right now as a team.
If you listen to certain podcasts they have sportsbook managers on EVERY WEEK and they are openly admitting they are losing on Cleveland and San Fran not covering and public teams like Pitt and New England covering. Listen to pregame.coms daily podcast and beating the book podcast as well.
No need to outrun the bear...just the next slowest guy
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If you listen to certain podcasts they have sportsbook managers on EVERY WEEK and they are openly admitting they are losing on Cleveland and San Fran not covering and public teams like Pitt and New England covering. Listen to pregame.coms daily podcast and beating the book podcast as well.
If you listen to certain podcasts they have sportsbook managers on EVERY WEEK and they are openly admitting they are losing on Cleveland and San Fran not covering and public teams like Pitt and New England covering. Listen to pregame.coms daily podcast and beating the book podcast as well.
The books have lost with the browns and rams. But you really think it is hurting them? They have so much volume this is just a little dent in their armour. Believe me ask any casino manager they want the first time customer to win. It's like a shot of heroin. They will keep coming back. Same with the sportsbook. They will get their money back and much more.
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Quote Originally Posted by Natty68:
If you listen to certain podcasts they have sportsbook managers on EVERY WEEK and they are openly admitting they are losing on Cleveland and San Fran not covering and public teams like Pitt and New England covering. Listen to pregame.coms daily podcast and beating the book podcast as well.
The books have lost with the browns and rams. But you really think it is hurting them? They have so much volume this is just a little dent in their armour. Believe me ask any casino manager they want the first time customer to win. It's like a shot of heroin. They will keep coming back. Same with the sportsbook. They will get their money back and much more.
line has nothing to do with actual odds it has to do with public opinion
it should hit a neutral just as much for and against. when that moves in a wrong direction bet the other side regaurdless of stats ect, something is not right
personally I dislike the taste of those games so I pass them by.
others by all means you want money then go get some .
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line has nothing to do with actual odds it has to do with public opinion
it should hit a neutral just as much for and against. when that moves in a wrong direction bet the other side regaurdless of stats ect, something is not right
personally I dislike the taste of those games so I pass them by.
others by all means you want money then go get some .
Pretty obvious the NFL rigged last night's game to give the Cowboys the #1 seed (no pass interference called on Shepherd, two bogus roughing the passes calls on Wentz).
NFL wants Cowboys-Patriots and they will make it happen.
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Pretty obvious the NFL rigged last night's game to give the Cowboys the #1 seed (no pass interference called on Shepherd, two bogus roughing the passes calls on Wentz).
NFL wants Cowboys-Patriots and they will make it happen.
but the line moving the wrong way is dead nut give away
that being said . I am sure some games will go against this for as with all measures in this affliction nothing is 100 percent guarantee of anything.
we dont need to be 100% correct if we have any sense of bank roll management 6 out 10 will do fine for the Professional gambler.
bookies is and will be a hard line business. True books stay as neutral to the whole affair and not gamble ever . same as a drug dealer should not use the product. and hence can stay dispassionate to the whole affair.
cause it is a brutal business always a winner and a loser. both running a series of emotions not healthy to the individual, one hand depression the other euphoria.
fans have the worst time actually making any money for the books will always take 10% without any new money the books will end up with it all . so beware and at least realize why you gamble. is for the rush or the coin....
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you caught it from college level,
professional sports in my opinion
is not much different.
but it isn't every game every day.
and the slight miscues are part of the game.
but the line moving the wrong way is dead nut give away
that being said . I am sure some games will go against this for as with all measures in this affliction nothing is 100 percent guarantee of anything.
we dont need to be 100% correct if we have any sense of bank roll management 6 out 10 will do fine for the Professional gambler.
bookies is and will be a hard line business. True books stay as neutral to the whole affair and not gamble ever . same as a drug dealer should not use the product. and hence can stay dispassionate to the whole affair.
cause it is a brutal business always a winner and a loser. both running a series of emotions not healthy to the individual, one hand depression the other euphoria.
fans have the worst time actually making any money for the books will always take 10% without any new money the books will end up with it all . so beware and at least realize why you gamble. is for the rush or the coin....
The Colts, in their current condition, do nothing for the NFL financially. They won't make a run because they aren't very good. If they were to get hot nobody really cares, therefore they would be up against the NFL's business model. This means they will be squashed quickly. Watch the Raiders. Not only are they a good team, but they are GREAT for business. The NFL's mouth is watering over them finally putting a decent product on the field. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the AFC torched is passed this year to Carr and the Raiders. That is actually what I fully expect to happen. They are set to be the dynasty of the next 10+ years. As bad as they want Luck to be the poster boy he just doesn't have the charisma to do it. I think Carr is in the middle of snatching that role before our very eyes. I don't have a feel for exactly what's happening in the NFC right now, but I don't think its Cowboys just yet. They are a little behind the Raiders in progress right now as a team.
I do t agree with that Andrew Luck can easily be a superstar QB potentially just as big as anybody
I actually think the NFL needs Andrew Luck in he playoffs, does not mean I am right not at all...... the odds of them making the playoffs are not even good...... so I am basically counting Andrew Luck as the next superstar that comes from the back to win it all
I do recognize I may be completely wrong especially with the current odds
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Quote Originally Posted by SUPEREAGLE43:
The Colts, in their current condition, do nothing for the NFL financially. They won't make a run because they aren't very good. If they were to get hot nobody really cares, therefore they would be up against the NFL's business model. This means they will be squashed quickly. Watch the Raiders. Not only are they a good team, but they are GREAT for business. The NFL's mouth is watering over them finally putting a decent product on the field. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the AFC torched is passed this year to Carr and the Raiders. That is actually what I fully expect to happen. They are set to be the dynasty of the next 10+ years. As bad as they want Luck to be the poster boy he just doesn't have the charisma to do it. I think Carr is in the middle of snatching that role before our very eyes. I don't have a feel for exactly what's happening in the NFC right now, but I don't think its Cowboys just yet. They are a little behind the Raiders in progress right now as a team.
I do t agree with that Andrew Luck can easily be a superstar QB potentially just as big as anybody
I actually think the NFL needs Andrew Luck in he playoffs, does not mean I am right not at all...... the odds of them making the playoffs are not even good...... so I am basically counting Andrew Luck as the next superstar that comes from the back to win it all
I do recognize I may be completely wrong especially with the current odds
In the course over a 10 year timespan I have gambled over $100,000. This included NFL, NBA, elections, and Texas Holdem. Also Iwould like to note I have a very bad gambling addiction that led me to being extremely depressed for 5 of those years as I thought that killing myself was a better choice than living. I do not feel this way anymore and stopped feeling this way about two years ago and even stopped gambling for a whole year.
with my experience with gambling I can honestly tell you that the NFL i not rigged. I need to note that being a ref is not easy. its a million times different watching it on tv then being a ref in the middle of it with 100,000 people in stadium screaming, all blood pumping. you dont see everything. and refs are humans not robots. everyone makes mistakes.
Major thing i want to say. Any Sunday is any given sunday. anything can happen. The shittiest team in the league could go out and beat the greatest team in the league at any given sunday. you never know when that is gonna happen. its any given sunday
when you gamble only gamble with money that you would not killyourself over if you lost. do not gamble money that if you lost you could not support and feed and put a roof over you wife and childrens heads.
Any given sunday you could have won money if you would have bet on the teams that you did not play
and you could loose money on the teams if you would have played.
any given sunday
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Quote Originally Posted by Ilost20grand:
The NFL is not rigged.
In the course over a 10 year timespan I have gambled over $100,000. This included NFL, NBA, elections, and Texas Holdem. Also Iwould like to note I have a very bad gambling addiction that led me to being extremely depressed for 5 of those years as I thought that killing myself was a better choice than living. I do not feel this way anymore and stopped feeling this way about two years ago and even stopped gambling for a whole year.
with my experience with gambling I can honestly tell you that the NFL i not rigged. I need to note that being a ref is not easy. its a million times different watching it on tv then being a ref in the middle of it with 100,000 people in stadium screaming, all blood pumping. you dont see everything. and refs are humans not robots. everyone makes mistakes.
Major thing i want to say. Any Sunday is any given sunday. anything can happen. The shittiest team in the league could go out and beat the greatest team in the league at any given sunday. you never know when that is gonna happen. its any given sunday
when you gamble only gamble with money that you would not killyourself over if you lost. do not gamble money that if you lost you could not support and feed and put a roof over you wife and childrens heads.
Any given sunday you could have won money if you would have bet on the teams that you did not play
and you could loose money on the teams if you would have played.
to the average American fixed games are the ultimate faux pas it discredits the game in the minds of most Americans
and newbies to the gambling world will go off the friggin' deep end
still remember drizzle hammering this same point about a year ago.
but the other example is the super bowl 50 I reread data for 6 months to figure without cam participation how it was done.
the ref was clean but the line judge influenced a couple plays in 1st and second quarter which started the wheels in motion.
a key turn over coin flip call went for broncos and a ruffing the passer was not called. the second quarter was usually the big blowout quarter for the Carolina and its only loss before the super bowl came after second quarter stagnated offense.
after that Carolina momentum was crushed till cam just gave up.
didn't take much to push the game in the betting sharps direction
debated a thread with dr. John and realized if the first half went south Carolina would lose so I not an easy believer saw the tell signs hedged Carolina wins. to a Denver wins move costed a few coins but broke even.
then I went back and anylized line movement . The line didn't move a lot of money heck of lot more then Denver was wagered on Carolina yet NO LINE movement.
since the experience of this and never privy to the $$$ before I realized that when the public US here moves to one side or the other of any game with 0 or contradictory line movement exist it comes in favor of the dog 2 of 3 times.
it really isn't that difficult to understand. 60 % of the time this exists something is wrong and those in the know are aware of it.
how we can monitor this and profit if we choose is to watch lines as well as stats players trend ect. and return we become better cappers...
0
surprised the mods haven't taken this down yet,
to the average American fixed games are the ultimate faux pas it discredits the game in the minds of most Americans
and newbies to the gambling world will go off the friggin' deep end
still remember drizzle hammering this same point about a year ago.
but the other example is the super bowl 50 I reread data for 6 months to figure without cam participation how it was done.
the ref was clean but the line judge influenced a couple plays in 1st and second quarter which started the wheels in motion.
a key turn over coin flip call went for broncos and a ruffing the passer was not called. the second quarter was usually the big blowout quarter for the Carolina and its only loss before the super bowl came after second quarter stagnated offense.
after that Carolina momentum was crushed till cam just gave up.
didn't take much to push the game in the betting sharps direction
debated a thread with dr. John and realized if the first half went south Carolina would lose so I not an easy believer saw the tell signs hedged Carolina wins. to a Denver wins move costed a few coins but broke even.
then I went back and anylized line movement . The line didn't move a lot of money heck of lot more then Denver was wagered on Carolina yet NO LINE movement.
since the experience of this and never privy to the $$$ before I realized that when the public US here moves to one side or the other of any game with 0 or contradictory line movement exist it comes in favor of the dog 2 of 3 times.
it really isn't that difficult to understand. 60 % of the time this exists something is wrong and those in the know are aware of it.
how we can monitor this and profit if we choose is to watch lines as well as stats players trend ect. and return we become better cappers...
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