RAMS VS. PATRIOTS: There's no need to wait around two weeks to put a bet in. MEGA Write-UP!

Question

2019 Record: 2-1Cowboys over Seahawks 30 Units WRaptors over Spurs 1 Unit LEagles over Saints 4 Units WLakers over Bulls 4 Units W&#x2B;32 UnitsUsually, I&#x27;d wait around the two weeks to gather all the information I need but I feel so comfortable with this one, I only needed a few hours of quiet calm and research before I posted it. That post comes right here.I am taking the Rams &#x2B;1.5. It opened at -1 and less than 4 hours I am already the beneficiary of a 2.5 pt swing in a very tight spot. I&#x27;ll take every point.Here&#x27;s why:1. This Rams team is modeled after the Seahawks Super Bowl Winning Team of 2014 and the Eagles of 2018 and their financial formula under the NFL cap rules has worked to perfection.This is the new formula for success in the NFL:Pay your QB on a rookie deal and unload at the other positions grabbing up all the prized free agents. It&#x27;s how the Seahawks were able to spend so much on the Legion of Boom and how the Eagles paid Wentz virtually nothing in comparison to all their prized positions and offseason signings which lead to a title. BOTH paid off with a Super Bowl Victory and really, that formula has worked 3 times in 5 years if Pete Carroll just calls 4 running plays to end a game.And here we are again with the Rams. Goff is paid a base salary of $3 million dollars. That is insanity. That is why the Rams able to sign Suh and all their prized position players in Donald and Cook and Gurley etc. etc. etc. The team is LOADED because it pays Goff virtually nothing. So for all the criticisms Goff gets, his shortcomings are A GOOD thing because if he was an all-world QB, more in the mold of Mahomes, he would already be grumbling or holding out for an extension too soon and the Rams wouldn&#x27;t be in this position. Already on ESPN&#x27;s site, the headline is  the Chiefs  could make Mahomes the first $200 million dollar man.That is the WORST headline imaginable for the Chiefs because they are not going to the Super Bowl this year and have two seasons left to get exactly what Mahomes is giving now while paying him nothing!

scalabrine · Answer

2019 Record: 2-1Cowboys over Seahawks 30 Units WRaptors over Spurs 1 Unit LEagles over Saints 4 Units WLakers over Bulls 4 Units W&#x2B;32 UnitsUsually, I&#x27;d wait around the two weeks to gather all the information I need but I feel so comfortable with this one, I only needed a few hours of quiet calm and research before I posted it. That post comes right here.I am taking the Rams &#x2B;1.5. It opened at -1 and less than 4 hours I am already the beneficiary of a 2.5 pt swing in a very tight spot. I&#x27;ll take every point.Here&#x27;s why:1. This Rams team is modeled after the Seahawks Super Bowl Winning Team of 2014 and the Eagles of 2018 and their financial formula under the NFL cap rules has worked to perfection.This is the new formula for success in the NFL:Pay your QB on a rookie deal and unload at the other positions grabbing up all the prized free agents. It&#x27;s how the Seahawks were able to spend so much on the Legion of Boom and how the Eagles paid Wentz virtually nothing in comparison to all their prized positions and offseason signings which lead to a title. BOTH paid off with a Super Bowl Victory and really, that formula has worked 3 times in 5 years if Pete Carroll just calls 4 running plays to end a game.And here we are again with the Rams. Goff is paid a base salary of $3 million dollars. That is insanity. That is why the Rams able to sign Suh and all their prized position players in Donald and Cook and Gurley etc. etc. etc. The team is LOADED because it pays Goff virtually nothing. So for all the criticisms Goff gets, his shortcomings are A GOOD thing because if he was an all-world QB, more in the mold of Mahomes, he would already be grumbling or holding out for an extension too soon and the Rams wouldn&#x27;t be in this position. Already on ESPN&#x27;s site, the headline is  the Chiefs  could make Mahomes the first $200 million dollar man.That is the WORST headline imaginable for the Chiefs because they are not going to the Super Bowl this year and have two seasons left to get exactly what Mahomes is giving now while paying him nothing!

scalabrine · Answer

Even if you look at Super Bowl losers of recent times, the Panthers paid Cam $1 million when he went to the big game and then they dropped off a cliff. Again, this IS the formula for success.

Look at the Seahawks now. Look at the Panthers now after Cam and Russell make what they make. The ENTIRE Legion of Boom is gone and they had to get very creative this year to have the success they had. The Panthers crapped the bed. So the Rams are under increased pressure to get this done NOW before Goff is due to be paid in 2020 as well. There is no more time. And all the talent is here and the trigger must be pulled on a title.

2. Patriots recency bias

This team got every single call down the stretch of that KC game. Every one. The Tom Brady roughing the passer call may have been one of the worst calls in playoff history that was not a deciding call.

All this translates to the Pats winning the Bowl now? Favored!? Right out of the gate as Pats money floods in from the squares and maybe even the sharps?

For me, the Pats have guts and perennial exposure to the big one, but they have not impressed me enough to bet on them against the Rams.

Why?

The Chargers were playing two road games going West-East back-West-back East and were totally unprepared under Lynn. NO adjustments. Nothing. Travel fatigue and no game plan. That was a walk-through for the Pats. That Pats team was preparing for this game while playing that warm-up.

In this game, outside of getting all the calls (many which were correct but still by razor thin margins on a bobble here or a roughing there, they simply won't ALL go your way like this game), if the Pats do not win that coin flip in OT, they do not win this game. Credit to them for the drive but there was no other option. Score 6 or lose. They were brilliant on that drive but again, without the ball in their hands due to a flip, I see them losing, particularly when Mahomes put up 24 in the 4th.

On top of all this, the Chiefs finally had their comeuppance for the flaws in their league worst defense.

The D was so bad in this game, I honestly thought I was watching SMU or East Carolina from the AAC. Defenders were totally nonexistent at times.

And all that (all the calls + vs. a D that continually surrendered points), the Pats barely took it home, also after their D gave up a tying FG with a mere 33 seconds. One stop, a stop the Pats have so often got so many years before, was not even CLOSE to occurring against KC. So this D is vulnerable late CLEARLY.

This Pats team is NOT the Pats team of previous Super Bowls, sits on the back of Brady and the braintrust that is Belichick and the coaching staff and is simply clutch at the perfect times, because they've been here so often.

But there were so many Un-Pats-like things in this game when watching, the leaks that have me moving my money off them and onto the Rams:

24 Chiefs points in the 4th (where Brady was 78-1 with a 14-0 lead on the line)

The WIDE OPEN misdirection play to Watkins where there wasn't a Pats soul in sight, for 38 yards to the 2 with 2:54 left to play. SO crucial a miss.

The constant miscues and penalties by JC Jackson basically rolling out a red carpet down the field for KC. He'll have a rough Super Bowl if he isn't benched like Malcolm was.

Gronk looking like he's one hard tackle from entering a nursing home.

Very un-Patriot like for me in certain spots even in a thrilling win.

So many things went the Pats way. The Edelmen punt that didn't hit him (it didn't but still he went for it and was a millimeter from actually touching it), the KC defensive offsides on the INT that would have ended the game on the final drive, winning the coin toss in OT, and all the fortunate official reviews going the Pats way. ALL of that added up to the last second of last second wins. That's too close for comfort for my money to bet on the Pats.

For all the complaining about the Rams pass interference call (which was beyond awful), in the aggregate, the Pats were MORE fortunate in their game imo.

scalabrine · Answer

They were brilliant in many areas, Brady was the GOAT for the millionth time but for me it comes down to the following;

1. Give McVay 2 weeks to counter everything he saw on tape against the Pats and he can do it. He is one of the most brilliant minds in all of football and the one who will take the mantle for the greatest football mind when Bill retires, if ever. In terms of 'creative gamelans', McVay will have the advantage here and will bring enough to the table to win this game with the talent he has.

2. Gronk 6 catches for 79 yards. That is a disgrace given what he is now. He even had 97 vs. KC last time and in both games he came up HUGE down the stretch, almost a replay of himself in both games late. He's not coming up with those plays against the Rams. The Rams are not all world but they are not the worst of the worst like the Chiefs and their secondary who had their putrid shortcomings on full display. Take away ONE Gronk catch of the 6 and the Chiefs win.

3. The Rams Run defense, its Achilles heel has been sensational.

Dallas tried to come in and have Elliot bully them. Result: 20 carries for 47.

The Saints two headed monster in Kamara and Ingram were shut down for 31 and 15.

Those THREE backs in TWO games held down for less than 100 yards and 1 TD in the two biggest games of the year. Sensational. Peaking and shows the Rams staff is paying attention to their deficiencies.

4. I love the Rams escaping with a PI call.

Just like the Tuck Rule of 2002 that changed the course of history forever, this is a perfect bookend to take back the Super Bowl of the same year, vs. the Pats.

Having that call go your way, KNOWING you should be going home serves as a massive psychological advantage to take advantage of what you never should have before you.

I will say I don't know if Gurley is hurt or not. It looks like he is. But two weeks is perfect timing for him to get healthy and get back to being productive. All the better with his new bowling ball godsend of a sidekick in CJ.

I feel very comfortable with the Rams here and this is one of those every rare times where the margins of victory are so thin, I'll actually take 1.5 with -110 juice.

6 units

RAMS +1.5 over Patriots

Europa · Answer

Go, Rams!

GucciCapper · Answer

Well written Scal.GucciCapper will definitely be riding with the Rams here. Superbowl party in Vegas scal?

scalabrine · Answer

Lol. No. I&#x2019;ve been to Vegas 6 times. Loved it every time. But I have Vegas right here on my phone now with legalized gambling!

StackMyLoot · Answer

&#xA; &#xA;Agree. Vegas will see less and less trips from people on the East coast as casinos start putting in sportsbettting state by state. &#xA;No need to travel 3000 to bet a game with terrible lines when you can just do it right from your couch or in your city soon legally.

D00bies · Answer

going against brady and bellichick after they lost the sb last year. not a good idea.

AlgerWong · Answer

NEWS: Someone just placed a $570,000 bet on LA RAMS ML in Caesars palace

Spooker · Answer

&#xA;If this is true,  why has the line gone up for Rams. I know the games were tight today and the bookies got lucky again on the "upsets".

Spooker · Answer

In past 6 Superbowl&#x27;s,  dogs have covered 5. The only one was ATLANTA who choked against Patriots 2 years ago.Good luck however.  I hope you win.

the1toturn2 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by StackMyLoot]  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Agree. Vegas will see less and less trips from people on the East coast as casinos start putting in sportsbettting state by state. &#xD;&#xA;No need to travel 3000 to bet a game with terrible lines when you can just do it right from your couch or in your city soon legally.  [/Quote] People have been using locals forever and a day so that argument is flawed  The could always sit on their couch and simply make a phone call ro these days use the internet

budwiser · Answer

&#xA; &#xA;Not true stop playing with people

budwiser · Answer

Great writeup thanks.&#xA;One more positive for the Rams is Suh.  He&#x27;s playing like a dominating player, the old Suh.  He is playing like a game-changer.&#xA;You would think everyone is on the Patriots.  The main thing for the public is going to be Goff vs Brady.  You can&#x27;t go against the GOAT.  Plus Belichik, how can you go against a genius like that, the best coach in the NFL.  &#xA;Game stats (incredible):&#xA;Rams 378 yards, Saints 290.  Yards per play Rams 5.6, Saints 4.5.  Rams better.&#xA;Patriots 524, Chiefs 290.  Yards per play Patriots 5.6, Chiefs 6.2.   ???&#xA;SO, you look at he Patriots game and they had 235 more yards, and yet less yards per play??!!  The Chiefs were the better team but got thoroughly OUTCOACHED.  You&#x27;re talking about Reid calling a timeout before the 1st half, costing them 7 points.  That was a crushing call.  Belichik duped Reid into the Pats saving a timeout.  You can say well, the Pats got lucky.  Is it luck or is it Belichik?&#xA;Look at this stat:&#xA;Patriots # of plays 94, Chiefs 47.  Pats had TWICE the number of plays than the Chiefs had.  They got to play the same hand twice.&#xA;Patriots 3rd down efficiency: 13 for 19!  Chiefs?  4 for 9.  Chiefs couldn&#x27;t get off the field 13 times!There is no team in the NFL, all season, that hit 50% on 3rd down conversions.  Chiefs play man for man defense, they were on the defenders but for whatever reason could NOT stop these guys.  Some insane catches and plays-will the Patriots have that same intensity for the Super Bowl?&#xA;McVay said Gurley should be ready by the Super Bowl.  He says he wasn&#x27;t injured but I wasn&#x27;t born yesterday.  Gurley was on the bike and stretching, so it had to be an injury.&#xA;Belichik vs McVay, no question Belichik is the better coach.  No question Rams are the better, more talented team.  The question again is by how much.  Reid got his coaching credentials handed to him last game, and he knows it.  He&#x27;s going to be unable to sleep well in the near future.&#xA;Brady and Edelman&#x27;s whole "world thinks we suck" angle you would think is gone for this game.  Patriots are favored.&#xA;Rams were lucky Sheldon Rankins was injured.  And yeah, they should have lost that game.  Does the NFL want everyone to forget about that play, if so is the fix to be in for the Pats?&#xA;Telling is the Super Bowl interviews where they interview player after player.  You can get a good read on how the players are feeling.&#xA;Agree with you the right play is the Rams, but what if the line gets to 3.  Will everyone be feeling comfortable with that if you&#x27;re on the Rams, knowing they&#x27;re asking for Rams cash.  Why not wait, think about it, maybe change your mind, because you can get &#x2B;2.5 or maybe &#x2B;3.  It&#x27;s not headed back towards the Rams/PK unless truly large heavy and sharp money comes in, and lots of it, because you&#x27;d expect a ton of Patriots public money coming.&#xA;Should be fun before the game. After the game we&#x27;ll see.   Good luck fellas.

Mcmanus · Answer

Its funny the Broncos were favored over the Seahawks 5 years ago.. Fun times getting the better team as an underdog.

melossinglet · Answer

clover peace_5

hey scalabrine,i just saw that play on brady...now as you know,im not a football guy and obviously the defender barely did enough to startle a fly...but in the rules is there an allowance for technicality??like,if you simply make contact,of ANY SORT,in a certain area (head or mask)then it must be called by refs??or is subjectivity written into it??i know we have it in rugby and it is maddening the stuff you see sometimes,instead of engaging the brain and using common sense referees are instructed to strictly enforce certain rules in the name of player safety and what-not....i can see the bigger picture in that regard but it does make a mockery when an action during a tackle would barely knock the skin off of custard and yet the defender is penalised.

Silverstones · Answer

They were brilliant in many areas, Brady was the GOAT for the millionth time

What the hell game did you watch he threw a pick at the 1 yard line and , threw another pick that would have ended the game if the guy wasn't lined up offside

Seriously watch the games and stop being a Simpleton based on a final score

Cap-Master · Answer

Agreed scale, I had the rams right away. Didn&#x27;t even require any thought on this one. Here&#x27;s to hoping tbjs ks the easiest Superbowl winever

4headies · Answer

scalabrine

Cap-Master · Answer

the reason the line went up is because rams will cover. Remember the line moves up u take the dog. If it moves down u go favorite. The idiot public perception along with the greed of the bookies has made it this easy on us smart bettors. Truly this easy although I admit I use more than this to cap my games and determine winners.

packersbackers · Answer

&#xA;Exactly what does last years game between two completely different teams have anything to do with this upcoming game?&#xA;I would love to hear your Xbox theory

Rented · Answer

Remember that the public was all over the Pats +3 vs KC and won. I don't care if public plays Pats so be it. The public can win sometimes too.

I would not want to bet on NE losing 2 Super Bowls in a row.

Just picture Brady finding Edelman open over and over again. That's what gonna happen.

joel00 · Answer

One fun trend that favors the bet: teams that were favored by fewer than three points in playoffs games were 6-20-3 ATS (there were only two games that had a -1.5 line though).

budwiser · Answer

&#xA;Right.&#xA;Kc was the better team.  Reid got his as handed to him by belichik.  ThatsT what belichik can do.&#xA;Just because you have the right side doesn&#x27;t mean you win.&#xA;Both games we can agree were a roll of the dice.&#xA;Kc gets the coin flip they probably win and cover.&#xA;Saints get the call they kick a fg win.&#xA;That&#x27;s gambling.

RAMS VS. PATRIOTS: There's no need to wait around two weeks to put a bet in. MEGA Write-UP!

Hot Forum Topics