Posted:
#51
Great stuff Scal!
On a quest to be the very best
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RAMS VS. PATRIOTS: There's no need to wait around two weeks to put a bet in. MEGA Write-UP!
Posted:
#52
You can supply stats, and history, and matchups until you're blue in the face.
I am now convinced that you merely have to be LUCKY enough to be on the right side of the bad calls to eventually win. I've been reading this in here for years, and fought it. NOW........ I surrender!!.
My capping is now whittled down to all the variations of why a particular team might be the coveted choice of the NFL. It's really that simple now.
I don't think I've ever been as skeptical and pessimistic about capping games until after this weekend. What a clear waste of time. It's as if the NFL is saying..
FUK iT, we're not even going to try and make you believe we are calling an honest penalty. After the "Tuck Rule", you idiots let us get away with that one. And over the years we now know we can get away with anything, as we clearly showed you this past weekend.
Be on the side that we (NFL) want, and congratulations!
For me, I know who wants to send Brady out a winner. This is his swan song, no matter what he says about playing next year.
And no amount of capping skills will change that, I already tried. You would do better betting on the coin toss to open the game. There is zero chance they can fuk you over as now their asking you to call it before they flip it. No flags or interference calls before, or after it lands on the ground.
Good or bad, I'm always pulled to Scal's threads. He is one of the most articulate and fun reads in Covers. He stimulates your thinking process like no one in here can. I used to not like him, but he grows on you like a fine wine.
The End.
Signed,
Bitter and disillusioned 
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Posted:
#57
Ninja Cooler 
Cooler, don’t use this weekend as a litmus test for capping. This truly was one of the most coin-flip of NFL betting weekends of all time.
That is why, although I love to go large at times. I limit my exposure on games like these.
These are the sharpest of sharp lines and a fingernail width decides them.
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Posted:
#58
Quote Originally Posted by midnightrambler:
I don't think you can compare the Seattle defense of 2013 with this Rams defense . There is no Legion of Boom here.
I don't think you can compare the Seattle defense of 2013 with this Rams defense . There is no Legion of Boom here.
True, but it is definitely a big upgrade over the KC defense. Holding Saints to only 23 in the superdome through OT was pretty good.
On a quest to be the very best
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Posted:
#59
Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:
You can supply stats, and history, and matchups until you're blue in the face.
You can supply stats, and history, and matchups until you're blue in the face.
I am now convinced that you merely have to be LUCKY enough to be on the right side of the bad calls to eventually win. I've been reading this in here for years, and fought it. NOW........ I surrender!!.
St2ee and LC both landed huge on the Pats & Rams this weekend. That isn't coincidence, I believe those teams really were more likely to win than the opponents though not by very much.
On a quest to be the very best
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Posted:
#60
Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:
You can supply stats, and history, and matchups until you're blue in the face.
You can supply stats, and history, and matchups until you're blue in the face.
I am now convinced that you merely have to be LUCKY enough to be on the right side of the bad calls to eventually win. I've been reading this in here for years, and fought it. NOW........ I surrender!!.
Saints game, forget about the missed PI call.
Saints go to OT, win the coin flip which should be huge, and then fuk themselves by turning the ball over, they deserved to lose and blaming the missed PI call as a reason why you lost your bet is just an excuse to cover up for your lack of capping skills.
Chiefs game, forget about the phantom roughing the passer call against Brady.
The Chiefs allowed the Patriots to shut them out in the first half of the game, control the time of possession by a factor of 2, convert 68% of 3rd downs, run twice as many plays and sack your QB 4 times while not sacking Brady once. Chiefs deserved to lose that game and anyone familiar with the matchup was able to predict the winner pretty convincingly. Home Field Advantage for Kansas City was grossly misrepresented given they lost to the Chargers which the Patriots just dismantled and only having 1 win against a semi-decent team, the Ravens, and a bunch of wins against mediocre sub 0.500 teams.
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Posted:
#61
Quote Originally Posted by Goat_12:
Saints game, forget about the missed PI call.
Saints go to OT, win the coin flip which should be huge, and then fuk themselves by turning the ball over, they deserved to lose and blaming the missed PI call as a reason why you lost your bet is just an excuse to cover up for your lack of capping skills.
Chiefs game, forget about the phantom roughing the passer call against Brady.
The Chiefs allowed the Patriots to shut them out in the first half of the game, control the time of possession by a factor of 2, convert 68% of 3rd downs, run twice as many plays and sack your QB 4 times while not sacking Brady once. Chiefs deserved to lose that game and anyone familiar with the matchup was able to predict the winner pretty convincingly. Home Field Advantage for Kansas City was grossly misrepresented given they lost to the Chargers which the Patriots just dismantled and only having 1 win against a semi-decent team, the Ravens, and a bunch of wins against mediocre sub 0.500 teams.
I want to make this abundantly clear and I’m not going to say it again (as I’ve said it several dozen times already):
The league manufactures parity through the cap. They want diversity in their champions when compared to the NBA where stars rule and dynasties last half a decade or more.
Because of that many players come and go and teams have to reinvent themselves when big paydays arrive.
Therefore these teams are VERY close in terms of overall talent. Strengths on one team are weakness on another and vice versa. The balance that results came to head this weekend in the two closest OT Confernce Finals ever.
Therefore, egregious PI calls that are not called when the WHOLE WORLD sees otherwise, right down to my grandmother, DO affect the team’s density, legacies and most certainly out bets.
You are an absolute fool if you think the Saints ML bettor cannot blame the refs for that miss. He can, he did, and he’s right in doing it and has every right to be bitter about it for weeks and even years.
I bet the Orioles in a series bet to beat the Yanks in the ALCS in 1996.
If anyone tells me “Well the Orioles could have done XYZ and not let it come down to the Maier faux home run”, you can shove it straight up your as* every time. That changed the fate of the long suffering Orioles, started a Yankees dynasty and cost me a bundle.
Now shut up and take this as a tongue lashing and don’t say “Well that call or this call didn’t matter if...” because those calls DO MATTER. Sometimes they are all that matters in the final seconds of a game. Ask Mike Renfo about his corner catch vs the Steelers in 1979 and tell him he could have done XYZ...please.
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Posted:
#62
I respect your analysis and insight and write ups and have followed your bets a few times. I must say like a lot of people i despise NE . With that being said i will not be betting against them because i just feel they are destined to win it this year and that the Rams have no hope in hell but i am glad you think the Rams have a chance. I will just sit back watch the game and hope they somehow beat these fukers with no money involved!
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Posted:
#63
Quote Originally Posted by ParTime13:
I respect your analysis and insight and write ups and have followed your bets a few times. I must say like a lot of people i despise NE . With that being said i will not be betting against them because i just feel they are destined to win it this year and that the Rams have no hope in hell but i am glad you think the Rams have a chance. I will just sit back watch the game and hope they somehow beat these fukers with no money involved!
Don’t be afraid at the window.
The best bets I ever made were on teams I feared the most.
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Posted:
#66
Quote Originally Posted by mbialowas:
Scal, you still hitting 40%? What happened in that big 20 game cap off?
Scal, you still hitting 40%? What happened in that big 20 game cap off?
Looks like it's 75% in the OP doesn't it? Just 5% more than all of 2015. Or didn't you learn how to do long division yet? Oh wait, that's just regular division. Take your time. You'll get it. That's why I post it with the plays now. Because I know the vermin eventually find this thread like roaches looking for the nearest motel...
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Posted:
#67
Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:
Great writeup thanks.
One more positive for the Rams is Suh. He's playing like a dominating player, the old Suh. He is playing like a game-changer.
You would think everyone is on the Patriots. The main thing for the public is going to be Goff vs Brady. You can't go against the GOAT. Plus Belichik, how can you go against a genius like that, the best coach in the NFL.
Game stats (incredible):
Rams 378 yards, Saints 290. Yards per play Rams 5.6, Saints 4.5. Rams better.
Patriots 524, Chiefs 290. Yards per play Patriots 5.6, Chiefs 6.2. ???
SO, you look at he Patriots game and they had 235 more yards, and yet less yards per play??!! The Chiefs were the better team but got thoroughly OUTCOACHED. You're talking about Reid calling a timeout before the 1st half, costing them 7 points. That was a crushing call. Belichik duped Reid into the Pats saving a timeout. You can say well, the Pats got lucky. Is it luck or is it Belichik?
Look at this stat:
Patriots # of plays 94, Chiefs 47. Pats had TWICE the number of plays than the Chiefs had. They got to play the same hand twice.
Patriots 3rd down efficiency: 13 for 19! Chiefs? 4 for 9. Chiefs couldn't get off the field 13 times!There is no team in the NFL, all season, that hit 50% on 3rd down conversions. Chiefs play man for man defense, they were on the defenders but for whatever reason could NOT stop these guys. Some insane catches and plays-will the Patriots have that same intensity for the Super Bowl?
McVay said Gurley should be ready by the Super Bowl. He says he wasn't injured but I wasn't born yesterday. Gurley was on the bike and stretching, so it had to be an injury.
Belichik vs McVay, no question Belichik is the better coach. No question Rams are the better, more talented team. The question again is by how much. Reid got his coaching credentials handed to him last game, and he knows it. He's going to be unable to sleep well in the near future.
Brady and Edelman's whole "world thinks we suck" angle you would think is gone for this game. Patriots are favored.
Rams were lucky Sheldon Rankins was injured. And yeah, they should have lost that game. Does the NFL want everyone to forget about that play, if so is the fix to be in for the Pats?
Telling is the Super Bowl interviews where they interview player after player. You can get a good read on how the players are feeling.
Agree with you the right play is the Rams, but what if the line gets to 3. Will everyone be feeling comfortable with that if you're on the Rams, knowing they're asking for Rams cash. Why not wait, think about it, maybe change your mind, because you can get +2.5 or maybe +3. It's not headed back towards the Rams/PK unless truly large heavy and sharp money comes in, and lots of it, because you'd expect a ton of Patriots public money coming.
Should be fun before the game. After the game we'll see. 
Good luck fellas.
Nice addition to the thread
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Posted:
#70
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:
hey scalabrine,i just saw that play on brady...now as you know,im not a football guy and obviously the defender barely did enough to startle a fly...but in the rules is there an allowance for technicality??like,if you simply make contact,of ANY SORT,in a certain area (head or mask)then it must be called by refs??or is subjectivity written into it??i know we have it in rugby and it is maddening the stuff you see sometimes,instead of engaging the brain and using common sense referees are instructed to strictly enforce certain rules in the name of player safety and what-not....i can see the bigger picture in that regard but it does make a mockery when an action during a tackle would barely knock the skin off of custard and yet the defender is penalised.
That call Melos was among the most embarrassing ever in playoff history. But by no means the worst.
Like boxing and how it is fixed when it goes to the Cards, we fans/gamblers just learn to accept it. There’s nothing we can do.
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Posted:
#73
Both defenses are hugely underrated right now. The Pats held Tyreek and Travis both to WAY under their season averages. If they can contain the run game (less likely), then the Patriots should win for sure. I'm all over the Under this game. I just think Belichick will have defensive matchups and plenty of disguises for Goff that he won't be able to read the defense, much like the Bears showed they can do. Belichick was a DC first before becoming HC. There's plenty of public rooting for the Patriots to lose, trying to separate the sharps and the public probably is too tough to do. I'm with you the Rams Run D has stepped up in a huge way, and should limit the scoring for the Patriots, as well as that 3rd down conversion rate they racked up on the Chiefs.
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