My stats analysis program has it as the best bet in relation to the spread so far this season in the NFL. 84% cover the 3. If they played 100 times, the Ravens cover 84.
I also love the spot, love this matchup. Wait until the Ravens shut down the Browns running game and Mayfield is forced to throw and can't hit the side of a barn.
Biggest bet of the year so far for me.
Ravens -3 / 3.5 YOLO BIG
GL all
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
3
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Felt like this one was worth posting....
I love the Ravens tonight.
My stats analysis program has it as the best bet in relation to the spread so far this season in the NFL. 84% cover the 3. If they played 100 times, the Ravens cover 84.
I also love the spot, love this matchup. Wait until the Ravens shut down the Browns running game and Mayfield is forced to throw and can't hit the side of a barn.
Thanks for posting, Vanz. I’ll tail for a unit (small:) I kind of feel like next week’s prime time game will be the Brown’s victory. Good luck tonight.
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Thanks for posting, Vanz. I’ll tail for a unit (small:) I kind of feel like next week’s prime time game will be the Brown’s victory. Good luck tonight.
Thanks for posting, Vanz. I’ll tail for a unit (small:) I kind of feel like next week’s prime time game will be the Brown’s victory. Good luck tonight.
My brain has it the other way around, Browns tonight, lose to Giants next week.
My brain is under 50% this year
@VanZack, damn I'm invested in the Browns tonight. Good Luck
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Thanks for posting, Vanz. I’ll tail for a unit (small:) I kind of feel like next week’s prime time game will be the Brown’s victory. Good luck tonight.
My brain has it the other way around, Browns tonight, lose to Giants next week.
My brain is under 50% this year
@VanZack, damn I'm invested in the Browns tonight. Good Luck
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy: Thanks for posting, Vanz. I’ll tail for a unit (small:) I kind of feel like next week’s prime time game will be the Brown’s victory. Good luck tonight. My brain has it the other way around, Browns tonight, lose to Giants next week. My brain is under 50% this year @VanZack, damn I'm invested in the Browns tonight. Good Luck
Callahan has been a beast this year against the NFC least: 3-0, I believe. He knows those teams inside and out, even with the coaching changes. It was a great angle to play all year. Not sure next week will be any different.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy: Thanks for posting, Vanz. I’ll tail for a unit (small:) I kind of feel like next week’s prime time game will be the Brown’s victory. Good luck tonight. My brain has it the other way around, Browns tonight, lose to Giants next week. My brain is under 50% this year @VanZack, damn I'm invested in the Browns tonight. Good Luck
Callahan has been a beast this year against the NFC least: 3-0, I believe. He knows those teams inside and out, even with the coaching changes. It was a great angle to play all year. Not sure next week will be any different.
Btw, Vanz, my man indigo has great info in his thread. Very knowledgeable guy, and articulate! You should check it out. Here are a couple interesting trends he found for tonight’s game. One favoring the Ravens and the other, smaller sample size, the Browns:
Home divisional dogs versus an opponent with less wins in non-Sunday day games have been 4-17-2 ats, 2-12 ats in divisional games.....Browns
game number<16 and HD and t:wins>o:wins and day and snf
Divisional games where the home team scored >40 their previous game have been 6-2 ats......Browns
p:points>40 and HD and oA(W)>.5 and DIV and day and game number<16 and p:A
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Btw, Vanz, my man indigo has great info in his thread. Very knowledgeable guy, and articulate! You should check it out. Here are a couple interesting trends he found for tonight’s game. One favoring the Ravens and the other, smaller sample size, the Browns:
Home divisional dogs versus an opponent with less wins in non-Sunday day games have been 4-17-2 ats, 2-12 ats in divisional games.....Browns
game number<16 and HD and t:wins>o:wins and day and snf
Divisional games where the home team scored >40 their previous game have been 6-2 ats......Browns
p:points>40 and HD and oA(W)>.5 and DIV and day and game number<16 and p:A
@Begginerboy - I'm not a big trends guy unless I can draw a correlation.
I see it very simply.... If the Browns cant run, forget about it. They can't score enough to win. If Mayfield is in a run first and throw second situation all game where the running game is working - he can lead the offense and make the throws that he needs to. But if they are in a throw first offensive situation? I will take my chances all day long with the Ravens. 15-20 MPH winds also.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Appreciate all of the comments.
@Begginerboy - I'm not a big trends guy unless I can draw a correlation.
I see it very simply.... If the Browns cant run, forget about it. They can't score enough to win. If Mayfield is in a run first and throw second situation all game where the running game is working - he can lead the offense and make the throws that he needs to. But if they are in a throw first offensive situation? I will take my chances all day long with the Ravens. 15-20 MPH winds also.
- "I see it very simply.... If the Browns cant run, forget about it. ."
Agreed, however, what indication is there that they wont be able to run tonight? where is this confidence coming from? Dallas ran on them. Based on recent play, i dont see any evidence that the Ravens are shutting down the run, especially one as potent as the Browns attack. Interested in your feedback here.
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@Vanzack
- "I see it very simply.... If the Browns cant run, forget about it. ."
Agreed, however, what indication is there that they wont be able to run tonight? where is this confidence coming from? Dallas ran on them. Based on recent play, i dont see any evidence that the Ravens are shutting down the run, especially one as potent as the Browns attack. Interested in your feedback here.
I’m not a trends guy but I’m also not not a trends guy. I believe that many of these trends speak to psychological, motivational truths that are hard to come by otherwise. For example, what does the following trend tell us about how teams in this situational spot perform?
“Home divisional dogs versus an opponent with less wins in non-Sunday day games have been 4-17-2 ats, 2-12 ats in divisional games.....Browns”
To me it suggests that the divisional dogs, with more wins than their opponents, probably have an inflated record. It also tells me that despite this fact, these teams nonetheless feel confident, perhaps even overconfident in this divisional matchup on prime time. It also tells me that the team that is favored wants to prove a point and put the dog in its rightful place in the division pecking order. It also tells me that being on the road in prime time gives the road team with the worse record extra motivation/juice. I think all these angles apply to tonight’s game. What the trend doesn’t account for is how teams like the Ravens fared in this spot after having beaten their divisional opponent in a previous game by dd? It also doesn’t tell us if playing this game on a non-Sunday is different than playing it on a Sunday. So there is a lot of info that is still missing, but it nonetheless gives us some useful info that, by using our imagination, we can apply to tonight’s game.
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@vanzack
I’m not a trends guy but I’m also not not a trends guy. I believe that many of these trends speak to psychological, motivational truths that are hard to come by otherwise. For example, what does the following trend tell us about how teams in this situational spot perform?
“Home divisional dogs versus an opponent with less wins in non-Sunday day games have been 4-17-2 ats, 2-12 ats in divisional games.....Browns”
To me it suggests that the divisional dogs, with more wins than their opponents, probably have an inflated record. It also tells me that despite this fact, these teams nonetheless feel confident, perhaps even overconfident in this divisional matchup on prime time. It also tells me that the team that is favored wants to prove a point and put the dog in its rightful place in the division pecking order. It also tells me that being on the road in prime time gives the road team with the worse record extra motivation/juice. I think all these angles apply to tonight’s game. What the trend doesn’t account for is how teams like the Ravens fared in this spot after having beaten their divisional opponent in a previous game by dd? It also doesn’t tell us if playing this game on a non-Sunday is different than playing it on a Sunday. So there is a lot of info that is still missing, but it nonetheless gives us some useful info that, by using our imagination, we can apply to tonight’s game.
@Vanzack - "I see it very simply.... If the Browns cant run, forget about it. ." Agreed, however, what indication is there that they wont be able to run tonight? where is this confidence coming from? Dallas ran on them. Based on recent play, i dont see any evidence that the Ravens are shutting down the run, especially one as potent as the Browns attack. Interested in your feedback here.
Im not really sure I would say that Dallas ran on them. They had 109 yards on 27 carries (4 yard avg), with the longest being a 14 yard run. But I understand your question....
Cleveland won't be able to put up 120 rushing yards and win tonight. If they do, I read the game completely wrong. They are going to have to have a 200+ yard rushing game - similar to the TN game a few weeks back against Balt.
The Browns win when they can get out in front and hold on. They do not really have a comeback win this season. In fact - I think their biggest deficit that they went on to win this season is 7 points - and that was in the first half. They need to get out in front by running - and I do not see it happening tonight -especially because at this point in the season everyone knows it and can plant seven guys in the box. I see the Ravens getting out in front, and the Browns having to throw their way out - to no success.
If Mayfield comes out and has a 300 yard game I will lose.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:
@Vanzack - "I see it very simply.... If the Browns cant run, forget about it. ." Agreed, however, what indication is there that they wont be able to run tonight? where is this confidence coming from? Dallas ran on them. Based on recent play, i dont see any evidence that the Ravens are shutting down the run, especially one as potent as the Browns attack. Interested in your feedback here.
Im not really sure I would say that Dallas ran on them. They had 109 yards on 27 carries (4 yard avg), with the longest being a 14 yard run. But I understand your question....
Cleveland won't be able to put up 120 rushing yards and win tonight. If they do, I read the game completely wrong. They are going to have to have a 200+ yard rushing game - similar to the TN game a few weeks back against Balt.
The Browns win when they can get out in front and hold on. They do not really have a comeback win this season. In fact - I think their biggest deficit that they went on to win this season is 7 points - and that was in the first half. They need to get out in front by running - and I do not see it happening tonight -especially because at this point in the season everyone knows it and can plant seven guys in the box. I see the Ravens getting out in front, and the Browns having to throw their way out - to no success.
If Mayfield comes out and has a 300 yard game I will lose.
"I see it very simply.... If the Browns cant run, forget about it. They can't score enough to win."
Good, well-taken point, but one could make the equally simple but converse argument too, that being that, "if the Ravens can't throw, forget about it, they can't score enough to win."
Maybe these two simple points of view indicate a rare Monday night under play.
Another thing to consider: you can't handicap fumbles, flags, dropped passes, and ricochet INTs; you just can't do it; you can't quantify luck and kismet. Wish you could, but you can't. In a close match-up like this, whichever side gets the breaks usually wins the cheese.
BOL,
RT2
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@vanzack
"I see it very simply.... If the Browns cant run, forget about it. They can't score enough to win."
Good, well-taken point, but one could make the equally simple but converse argument too, that being that, "if the Ravens can't throw, forget about it, they can't score enough to win."
Maybe these two simple points of view indicate a rare Monday night under play.
Another thing to consider: you can't handicap fumbles, flags, dropped passes, and ricochet INTs; you just can't do it; you can't quantify luck and kismet. Wish you could, but you can't. In a close match-up like this, whichever side gets the breaks usually wins the cheese.
Ohhhhhhh Mansack ....I was gonna do a similar write up, but you nailed it...All people see is IMO , Crappy ass Baker that threw for 334 yards a 4 TDs last week, and think they are also getting 3 points or +155..What a steal..Right?. That scrub cant and wont play from behind...His passing yards are 217 that says it all..I can see Chub getting his usual, but thats it. Landry OVER EVERYTHING is my best play (The scrub will be throwing from behind all night) And thats his favorite target..Good Luck, and Please post more..I miss the Sack in here..
1
Ohhhhhhh Mansack ....I was gonna do a similar write up, but you nailed it...All people see is IMO , Crappy ass Baker that threw for 334 yards a 4 TDs last week, and think they are also getting 3 points or +155..What a steal..Right?. That scrub cant and wont play from behind...His passing yards are 217 that says it all..I can see Chub getting his usual, but thats it. Landry OVER EVERYTHING is my best play (The scrub will be throwing from behind all night) And thats his favorite target..Good Luck, and Please post more..I miss the Sack in here..
Oh man.... There he is.... Vanzack... So, we don't actually know each other at all. We've communicated ever so slightly a very long time ago. We both hit large on a Pujols homerun once in in-game betting in the 9th at huge odds is all I can really remember.
However, I discovered bitcoin from reading your old threads when you were in a convo with someone else. Hence, I've known about bitcoin for a long long time. I even knew about it way back in 2009 because of you when I had won two poker tournaments and netted $100,000 *after* paying $45,000 in taxes. (I probably should've just cheated, but I was kinda scared and kinda proud to do my civic duty and just ponied up the cash. The motherfuckers still audited me that year, though.)
My mom suggested that I invest some of the money. My response was, "Fuck that. I've always lost money investing. I made this money gambling and I'm going to gamble with it." Stupidly, I got bored with poker and went all-in on sports gambling. It took me a year to bust out. I did get a new car out of it, though, at least. Had I invested even $1000 in bitcoin in 2009, I would be a multi-millionaire now.
So, there's really not a punch line to this little soliloquy. It's just that I will always know that I missed the big one. And the only reason I even knew about the big one was because of you.
Oh, also, I'm on the best sports gambling streak of my life even as I type. I've seen a $15k swing to the good in the past three weeks....BUT I feel the worm is turning. And I just bet the Brownies ML just before reading your post.
GL Van... just not on this bet!
1
Oh man.... There he is.... Vanzack... So, we don't actually know each other at all. We've communicated ever so slightly a very long time ago. We both hit large on a Pujols homerun once in in-game betting in the 9th at huge odds is all I can really remember.
However, I discovered bitcoin from reading your old threads when you were in a convo with someone else. Hence, I've known about bitcoin for a long long time. I even knew about it way back in 2009 because of you when I had won two poker tournaments and netted $100,000 *after* paying $45,000 in taxes. (I probably should've just cheated, but I was kinda scared and kinda proud to do my civic duty and just ponied up the cash. The motherfuckers still audited me that year, though.)
My mom suggested that I invest some of the money. My response was, "Fuck that. I've always lost money investing. I made this money gambling and I'm going to gamble with it." Stupidly, I got bored with poker and went all-in on sports gambling. It took me a year to bust out. I did get a new car out of it, though, at least. Had I invested even $1000 in bitcoin in 2009, I would be a multi-millionaire now.
So, there's really not a punch line to this little soliloquy. It's just that I will always know that I missed the big one. And the only reason I even knew about the big one was because of you.
Oh, also, I'm on the best sports gambling streak of my life even as I type. I've seen a $15k swing to the good in the past three weeks....BUT I feel the worm is turning. And I just bet the Brownies ML just before reading your post.
wow, that's a sad story...next time, please give some of the money to your mom and don't let her tell you what account it's in..
I really recommend reversing that Browns bet, I've known Vanzack for years, he's no fool..really good in World Cup soccer. But I know the Browns really well, cause a good friend of mine is a die hard and we watched every one of their games this year and I have Chubbs on my fantasy team. My whole family is from Baltimore too so I know that team. What do I know? 2 things:
A) yes, Baker is far from an elite passing QB, if you make him throw, he's too small, slow and skilled enough to find receivers..he's played bad defenses all year..but this one has an elite secondary
B) you beat the Ravens if you can make Lamar throw to the outside-(Titans perfected this) and shut down the middle for running and passing. The Browns defense is not good, especially the secondary..Lamar will get to thrown it where he wants and he'll run well too..i
I'm scared Cleveland will have to throw and it will get ugly and Chubbs won't get the extra points I need.
1
wow, that's a sad story...next time, please give some of the money to your mom and don't let her tell you what account it's in..
I really recommend reversing that Browns bet, I've known Vanzack for years, he's no fool..really good in World Cup soccer. But I know the Browns really well, cause a good friend of mine is a die hard and we watched every one of their games this year and I have Chubbs on my fantasy team. My whole family is from Baltimore too so I know that team. What do I know? 2 things:
A) yes, Baker is far from an elite passing QB, if you make him throw, he's too small, slow and skilled enough to find receivers..he's played bad defenses all year..but this one has an elite secondary
B) you beat the Ravens if you can make Lamar throw to the outside-(Titans perfected this) and shut down the middle for running and passing. The Browns defense is not good, especially the secondary..Lamar will get to thrown it where he wants and he'll run well too..i
I'm scared Cleveland will have to throw and it will get ugly and Chubbs won't get the extra points I need.
Sorry that you tanked it all back then - but that is how it goes - you gotta keep your eyes and ears open for the next opportunity.
So funny to read that thread.... This was from 2013 from the opening post in the thread.....
"My personal experience is that my buddy set me up, walked me through it, and I bought 3 bitcoin back in December for $13.50 each. I opened an account at the exchange, and played around there. I got offers matched and matched some offers. I think that the exchange itself will evolve and need to make some fundamental changes - but the concept of the bitcoin is the discussion here - not the exchange itself. My 3 bitcoin turned in to 3.25 bitcoin, and the value is now about 30 bucks for each - so my original $40 investement is now worth about $97. Not bad.
Who knows - maybe bitcoin will implode and be the pets.com or napster.com of online currency. But maybe it will become mainstream - and you can say you heard about it here first."
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
1
@HoundsBlood
I love reading things like that. Honestly. This is probably the thread.....
Sorry that you tanked it all back then - but that is how it goes - you gotta keep your eyes and ears open for the next opportunity.
So funny to read that thread.... This was from 2013 from the opening post in the thread.....
"My personal experience is that my buddy set me up, walked me through it, and I bought 3 bitcoin back in December for $13.50 each. I opened an account at the exchange, and played around there. I got offers matched and matched some offers. I think that the exchange itself will evolve and need to make some fundamental changes - but the concept of the bitcoin is the discussion here - not the exchange itself. My 3 bitcoin turned in to 3.25 bitcoin, and the value is now about 30 bucks for each - so my original $40 investement is now worth about $97. Not bad.
Who knows - maybe bitcoin will implode and be the pets.com or napster.com of online currency. But maybe it will become mainstream - and you can say you heard about it here first."
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....I was gonna do a similar write up, but you nailed it...All people see is IMO , Crappy ass Baker that threw for 334 yards a 4 TDs last week, and think they are also getting 3 points or +155..What a steal..Right?.
That scrub cant and wont play from behind...His passing yards are 217 
that says it all..I can see Chub getting his usual, but thats it. Landry OVER EVERYTHING is my best play (The scrub will be throwing from behind all night) And thats his favorite target..Good Luck, and Please post more..I miss the Sack in here..
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