SDQL year 2

Playing on last years SB winner opening on Thursday is 9-0 when teased  6 points. to the under that went (7-1)

1* PLAYS are 1.5% of BR

More plays the better, opposite of most punters.....lol

tpS(playoffs) > 2 and tpS(playoffs@L) = 1 and week = 1 and DIV

Since 2006, The previous years Conference  tournament loser who opens up this year against a divisional opponent

has gone (1-8)

PLAY  1*

CLEV +2

finalized my week 1 card..

@jowchoo

 ?????

ATS: (0-0) TOTALS: (0-0) TEASERS: (0-0)

FINAL CARD WEEK 1

SIDES:

PITT +3

HOUS +10

TB +6.5

GB +2.5

LV +3.5

CLEV +2

DOUBLE PLAYS:

NYJ +1.5 **

NYG +3.5 **

LAR +6 **

TENN +3.5 **

INDY +4 **

NE +5 **

CLEV +2.5 **

TOTALS:

CINC/CLEV UN 47.5

NO/TENN UN 42.5

SF/PITT UN 41.5

BALT/HOUS UN 44.5

DOUBLE PLAYS:

CAR/ATL UN 42.5 **

JAX/INDY UN 43.5 **

TENN/NO UN 41.5 **

NYG/DALL UN 46.5

6 PT TEASER -120

KC-.5/UN 60

These plays were generated using historical data from SDQL and hit at 59% last year (230 plays)

The majority of the lines have moved in my favor. Obviously I like that and this will lead to some

20:1 middle opportunities around the number 3 and 7. Last year I missed  such winners. So this year I want to take

advantage of getting ahead of the crowd. If -2.5 becomes -3.5 and if -6.5 goes to -7.5 I will play an additional half unit */2

on the middle.

Seen as I am mostly on DOGS the middle opportunities will likely be me taking early +3.5 and +7.5

and then buying back the -2.5 and -6.5.

We have 3 candidates for the 10:1 side middle.

PLAY

PITT+3/SF-2.5  (*/2)

TENN+3.5/NO-3  (*/2)

NYG+3.5/DALL-3 ( toss this one total is too high)

With the Kupp news I am buying back 2 my unit bet on LAR+6 with 2* on SEA-5

Possible to side this bet with a SEA win by 6.

Great thread thanks 

@jowchoo

@jowchoo

 I don't know why it didn't post the rest of my comment.

I have a question? You rate your plays as 1, 2, or 3 stars. How many stars do you have? in other words, what percentage of the bankroll is 1 star?  Thanks again.

@Jimmy_Cats

 1.5%= 1*

I counted 34 stars in action for Week 1, which at 1.5% per star equals 51% of your bankroll in play. That's very aggressive wagering. I hope it works out for you. Best of luck!  

Yup. It is normal, it is what I like about this approach, each play represents historically a plus EV. The bet sizing is a work in progress

as I am confident in the data showing a profit.

Actually, puting over 50% of your bankroll in play on one day is not normal. It is extremely aggressive! A lot can go wrong in the short term, even if your data suggests a positive EV. I'm not trying to criticize, or imply your data is faulty. To the contrary, I think the SDQL approach has a lot of merit. I'm just cautioning you, (and those that may follow you) that most serious bettors would consider putting more than 50% of your bankroll in play all at once to be excessive. As I said, I wish you the utmost success this season. I would hate to see you get in an early hole by over betting.  

Taking an early line for week 2

Bet 2*

DET -2.5  hosting SEA

@Jimmy_Cats

 I always come back to wondering about this as many claim its terrible to play tons of games. Why?

10,000 bankroll.

Do I Bet 1 game at 10,000.00

Do I bet 2 games at 5,000.00

Do I bet 10 games at 1,000.00

Do I bet 100 games at 100.00

Do I bet 200 games at 50.00

Juice is always the same based on all the above on a -110 play.

Just saying and I agree money management keeps you in the game but if you are a steady 40-45% winner, nothing matters.

GL

Adding  6pt. teaser -120

PLAY 2*

WASH-1 and MINN +.5

I found a NO-2.5 so I will buy back  (1*)

TENN+3.5 and try for the 20:1 middle. I now have 1* of my TENN +3.5 remaining.