Sharps Report Week 11

DENVER AT ATLANTA: The sharps loved Atlanta out of the gate here, driving an opening line of -4 all the way up to -6. It's true that no critical numbers were crossed (3 or 7), but that's still a big move considering that Denver had a few extra days to prepare. You're seeing a lot of respect for this strong Atlanta offense and stellar rookie Matt Ryan. The action stopped at -6 though, so the sharps aren't playing Atlanta at the line you're seeing right now. It's worth nothing that they didn't buy anything back on Denver though. They're waiting to see if the public takes the line higher on game day for that. Not much movement on the total. Some of the math guys like the Over here because Denver plays high scoring games much of the time as it is. This week's game is indoors, meaning conditions will be perfect for scoring. A lot of old school guys won't go Over anything in the 50's. That has served them well in recent years.

OAKLAND AT MIAMI: Not much interest here early on. Most sharps play underdogs. It's very hard to play Oakland right now given how poorly they played the last two weeks. They just lost at home 41-6 over two games...and that was with a dead second half against Atlanta. You can't cover spreads averaging just 3 points per game! It's also an early kickoff for the Raiders on the East Coast. I talked about the "bad body clock"issues earlier this season. All of that has turned a probable dog play into a pass for the sharps. Very few would lay big points with a team like Miami. The Dolphins couldn't cover a lesser line last week against another bad body clock team.

BALTIMORE AT NY GIANTS: This could be a great game. But, the early sharp money was actually on the Giants at -6. I'm seeing -7 right now. Why would sharps bet a favorite early when a great "defensive dog"like Baltimore is getting points? It's the third straight road game for the Ravens. That's going to scare off a lot of guys who used to bet that angle in the past. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if some guys were taking a position to come back later at a more favorable line. You saw that with New England all the time last year. The Giants are the closest thing we have to New England this year in terms of a public team that keeps winning games. You take a position under the critical number, hope it goes over the critical number, then come back over the top on the underdog at the better line. I think we'd see A LOT of sharp money come in on Baltimore at +7.5. The total has dropped from 42 down to 40.5, suggesting that defenses will rule the day. Sharps like betting Unders up North in November and December anyway. That didn't work out in the Giants/Eagles game, or Jets/Patriots this past Thursday night.

HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: Given how badly Houston has been playing vs. good teams this year, and Indy's recent strong play (winning at Pittsburgh last week), oddsmakers were afraid of getting buried with Colts money in this game. They opened the number at a very high 9.5...only to see the sharps come in and hit Houston strong. I'm currently seeing Indiana by 7.5 or 8, which is right in the teaser window. You can bet Indianapolis will be in a lot of teasers this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to see the line go back up to -9 to discourage that. The total moved up from 50 to 50.5, which is actually a reasonably strong move considering how few sharps will play Over totals that high. Some were confident enough to do it anyway. To this point, I can't say the sharps "love"Houston +9.5. They see value there, and positioned themselves to use the Colts in basic strategy teasers too. These guys are pros for a reason!

TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE: There's been money coming in on Jacksonville, as many sharps like going against undefeated teams in the second half of the season. The line hasn't moved off a field goal though because it's such a critical number. If you want to take the home dog, you have to lay -130 on the moneyline for the privilege. You can take Tennessee -3 at +110. If a line's not going to move, sharps still find a way to get a better price on the juice. The total has gone up from 38.5 to 39.5 here. Tennessee threw a lot of passes last week. If that continues, they'll play higher scoring games that you might expect from this point on.

CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY: There was early underdog and Under sentiment here, as the line dropped from Green Bay -4 to -3.5, and the total from 44 to 42.5. Early week news suggested that Kyle Orton was going to try and play this week. That's good news for the Bears, and helps the Under because he's more conservative than Rex Grossman. To me this is an information move. I don't think the sharps want to bet on Grossman again. Many took a shot on him vs. Tennessee last week and lost their money. They'll bet on Orton for sure as a dog, particularly with Green Bay coming off a pair of nailbiters the last two weeks. It's supposed to be cold in the Midwest too this week. If the forecast is bad, look for that total to drop even more. Then, marvel that the sharps got Under 44 in a bad weather game!

PHILADELPHIA AT CINCINNATI: The big move here was on the total, which dropped from 43 down to 41. I expect that's weather related, because Philadelphia isn't really playing defensive battles on the road this year. Cincy's defense has been better than expected though. That and a bye week could inspire a good result for the Bengals. The team side line has dropped from 9.5 to 9. Cincinnati did win the last time they took the field too. That was against struggling Jacksonville though. I think we'll see some stragglers on the Bengals come game day because sharps like home dogs who are likely to bring an effort. A bad weather forecast will definitely bring more dog and Under money.

NEW ORLEANS AT KANSAS CITY: We have rare favorite and Over sentiment from the sharps, which suggests they must really like the New Orleans offense here! That makes a lot of sense because New Orleans does have a great offense, is coming off a loss, and will be facing the tired and shorthanded defense of Kansas City. The team side line jumped from -4 to -5.5 on the Saints. The total moved up from 48 to 50 even with the chance for cold weather this weekend. Drew Brees played his college ball at Purdue, so he can handle the weather. The "default"move for sharps is usually dog and Under. When you see favorite and Over, it's best to pay attention.

DETROIT AT CAROLINA: A surprising move to the Over here, as an opener of 39 went up to 40.5. Do the sharps think Daunte Culpepper is going to start scoring touchdowns? Maybe they've penciled him in for one or two. I take that move to be more of a Carolina blowout scenario where points come easy in the second half in garbage time. The team side line hasn't moved from -14. The sharps didn't see anything last week from Culpepper that suggests he's a money guy right now. Most sharps are leaving this game alone outside of those who bet the total.

MINNESOTA AT TAMPA BAY: There was a big Under move here from 41.5 down to 38.5. I was a bit surprised at that given Minnesota's penchant for playing high scoring games of late. Gus Frerotte is very turnover prone. That sets up easy scores for the other team. Tampa Bay just went Over at Kansas City in their last game too. Clearly the sharps expect the defenses to rule. And, Tampa Bay generally plays Unders as home favorites because they know how to run clock with a lead. I'm not a total guy, so I probably shouldn't argue against a 3-point move! Not much action on the team side, though I have seen -4 drop to -3.5 here and there. It's mostly Tampa Bay -4 everywhere as I write this.

ST. LOUIS AT SAN FRANCISCO: Not much movement in this one. What's happened here is a rare favorite and Under combo. The team side line has gone up a half a point from -6 to -6.5 for the Niners. The total has dropped a point from 44.5 to 43.5. What's up with that? I'm guessing it's Mike Singletary. If you respect a head coach, and he's defensive-minded, then the money comes in on his team and the Under. If he's a favorite, you get the relatively odd favorite and Under combination. These were relatively small moves though, with more sentiment on the total play. It's hard for sharps to lay points with bad teams. Most sharps passed on the dog because St. Louis doesn't look like they're trying any more. The few who bet swallowed hard and laid 6 points with a bad team hoping the new coach changes the losing mindset.

ARIZONA AT SEATTLE: Early money on Arizona -1.5 here, lifting the line up to -2.5 with extra juice or -3 with reduced juice. Arizona won at St. Louis two weeks ago in a similar divisional road favorite spot. The sharps were impressed by that. Sure, the Cards didn't look very good this past Monday. But, Seattle rarely looks good ever. The total has dropped from 48.5 to 47.5. We're seeing a lot of totals go down this week even though scoring isn't going down across the league. That will be something to pay attention to. Arizona's clearly the sharp side here, but I don't expect any sharps to lay a field goal. They got in at the lower price.

SAN DIEGO AT PITTSBURGH: Here we have another favorite and Under combination with a good defense. Pittsburgh opened at -4, and went up to -5 fairly quickly. San Diego hasn't looked good in so long that the sharps have definitely pegged them as a go-against team right now. Remember how badly San Diego played on prior trips out East too. The total has dropped from 44 to 42. I think we've seen a drop like that on every San Diego road trip. The offense just isn't doing anything in these games, and the sharps keep taking advantage of that. They did lose the Under in London, but have cashed most others. If San Diego really is as bad as they've looked the past month, then this line might need to be higher. Are they really that bad?

DALLAS AT WASHINGTON: The early money has come in on home underdog Washington, as +2.5 has dropped to +1.5. This is also in the teaser window. Really, only Indianapolis and Washington are in the sweet spots right now, so those teams will be in a lot of teasers this weekend. The total has come WAY down from 46 to 42.5, in the biggest move of the week. Some of that is weather related. And, there's some though that Tony Romo will be rusty from his long layoff as he finally returns to the lineup. There's also a bit of a hedge there. If Washington loses, it's probably because they don't score many points (as you saw in the MNF loss to Pittsburgh). Smart way to play it if you think Romo is going to be rusty. If he plays well though, it's going to spike two different bets.

CLEVELAND AT BUFFALO: Buffalo opened at -4 in this Monday Night game, and has been bet up to -5. That came on reports earlier in this week that the Browns players were calling each other quitters. There's nothing from recent Bills games to inspire confidence, so that has to be an anti-Browns move. The total dropped from 43 to 42. The early week forecasts weren't very pretty for Sunday and Monday, so we saw a lot of weather related drops. These guys played in a blizzard in Cleveland last year. I would expect to see a lot of game day action on this one once everyone has a chance to focus on the game. If the public hits the home favorite (as they often do), sharp money will come in on the Browns probably at +6.