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Slick100's NFL Thread

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Posted: #76
10/19/2014

Sunday Afternoon Football Final Card
Nyg +7 -125 (B+1/2), 2u
Chi -3, 2u
Cin +3 Ev, 1u
1H Buf u21.5 -115, 1u
2T 6PTS Teaser, Sea -1/2, Gb -1/2 -105, 1u
 
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Posted: #77
10/19/2014

Added
Min +7 -130 (B+1/2), 2u
 
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Posted: #78
We took the Bengals in a very bad spot I recognized.
 
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Posted: #79
User/PhoneGameDateSportDescriptionRisk/WinWin/Loss
Amount		ResultDate Placed







INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 33471309
Oct 19 05:28 PM

NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[476] DENVER BRONCOS -6½-115

115 / 100

100
WIN
WIN
10/19/2014 04:54 PM
INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 33476766
Oct 19 07:08 PM

NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[2476] 2H DENVER BRONCOS -3-105

105 / 100

100
WIN
WIN
10/19/2014 06:57 PM
INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 33476767
Oct 19 07:08 PM

NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[2475] 2H SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS o24½-115

115 / 100

100
WIN
WIN
10/19/2014 06:57 PM
 
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Posted: #80
Sunday Football Recap
Nyg +7 -125 (B+1/2), 2u
Chi -3 -110, 2u
Cin +3 Ev, 1u
1h Buf u21.5 -115, 1u
2t 6pts Teaser, Sea -1/2, Gb -1/2 -105, 1u
Min +7 -130 (B+1/2), 2u
Den -6.5 -115, 2u
2h Den -3 -105, 2u
2h Sf o24.5 -115, 2u

Overall Record
Sides:  28-21-1, 6.85u
Totals:  3-1, 4u
1h:  2-2, 1.35u
2h:  5-2, 4.85
1q:  0-1, 1.05u
Live:  1-3, 1.95u
Parlay:  0-1, .5u
Teaser:  0-1-1, 1.05u
Alt Line:  0-1, .5u

Total Units:  12u
 
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Posted: #81
10/23/2014

I was away for business for the past few days and didn't get to play on Monday Night Football.

I'm also going to play on the alt line once my book releases it.

Thursday Night Football
Sd o51 -110, 2u

Sunday Afternoon Football
Tb -2.5 -115, 2u
Nyj -3 -105, 2u

 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

We took the Bengals in a very bad spot I recognized.

Are you referring to them coming off a tie?  If so, I know, wasn't very smart.
 
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Posted: #83
10/23/2014

Added
Sd Alt Line o61.5 +280, .5u
 
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Posted: #84
Thursday Night Action Recap
Sd o51 -110, 2u
Sd (Alt Line) o61.5 +280, .5u

Overall Record
Sides:  28-21-1, 6.85u
Totals:  4-1, 6u
1h:  2-2, 1.35u
2h:  5-2, 4.85u
1q:  0-1, 1.05u
Live:  1-3, 1.95u
Parlay:  0-1, .5u
Teaser:  0-1-1, 1.05u
Alt Line:  0-2, 1u

Total Units:  13.5u
 
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Posted: #85
10/24/2014

Sunday Football
Tb -2.5 -115, 2u
Nyj -3 -105, 2u
No -1.5 -110, 2u
 
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Posted: #86
10/24/2014

Added
Pit +4.5 -110, 2u
 
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Posted: #87
10/26/2014

Added
2h Ind -7 -110, 1u

Undocumented
2h Nyj -3 Ev, 1u


 
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Posted: #88
Added
Gb o55 -110, 1u
 
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Posted: #89
11/26/2014

Monday Night Football
Wa +10 -110, 2u

Sunday Football Action Recap
Tb -2.5 -115, 2u
Nyj -3 -105, 2u
Pit +4.5 -110, 2u
No -1.5 -110, 2u
Gb o55 -110, 2u *(not 1u)
2h -7 -110, 1u
2h Nyj -3 Ev, 1u

Overall Record
Sides:  30-23-1, 6.45u
Totals:  5-1, 8u
1h:  2-2, 1.35u
2h:  5-4, 2.75u
1q:  0-1, 1.05u
Live:  1-3, 1.95u
Parlay:  0-1, .5u
Teaser:  0-1-1, 1.05u
Alt Line:  0-2, 1u

Total Units:  13u
 
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Posted: #90
10/27/2014

Monday Night Football
Wa +10 -115, 2u *(correction on vig)

Sunday Football Play
Mia -2.5 -110, 2u
 
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Posted: #91
Mia Play
I locked in early because I anticipate that bigger money will be placed on the home favorite despite the majority of the action on the Chargers.  I just don't know when.  Chances are, the line will move to 3 on Friday or Saturday.
 
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Posted: #92
10/27/2014

Monday Night Football Action Recap
Wa +10 -110, 2u

Overall Record
Sides:  31-23-1, 8.45u
Totals:  5-1, 8u
1h:  2-2, 1.35u
2h:  5-4, 2.75u
1q:  0-1, 1.05u
Live:  1-3, 1.95u
Parlay:  0-1, 0.5u
Teaser:  0-1-1, 1.05u
Alt Line:  0-2, 1u

Total Units:  15u

 
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Posted: #93
Congrats on Washington Slick
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #94
Thanks Mac, cheers!
 
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Posted: #95

10/28/2014

 
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Posted: #96
10/28/2014

Thursday Night Football
No -2.5 -115, 2u 
 
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Posted: #97
10/29/2014

Saints Playing Division Game Away 

Why go with a team who cannot perform well on the road and w/ a lot of trends leaning the other way?

Stats
  • The last time they met, Saints lost in Carolina (13-17) against #3 defense (DVOA).  In 2012, Panthers ranked #11, and this year, they rank #28.  The Panthers defense resembles nothing of the past couple of years. 
  • Cam has a 54.5 QBR and ranks 24th in that category.
  • Olsen is Cam's #2 receiver.  He has six less targets than Benjamin.  Saints are #8 (DVOA) in defense against the TE.
  • Williams & Stewart together avg. 4.0 ypa, 0.8 difference from Ogbonnaya & Whittake.  This is an improvement, but far from vastly for this contest.
  • Ingram averages 5.7 y/a.  He leads the league
  • Panthers rush defense ranks #31.
Strengths of the Panthers offense do match-up to the Saints weaknesses on defense, but not that dramatically, as do they vice-versa.

Red Zone
So, I think it's fair to say the Saints will be seeing the Red Zone in Carolina, lets see those stats...
  • Saints rank #12 in away Red Zone Scoring (only TDs).  As opposed to #28 in 2013.
  • Panthers rank #21 in home Red Zone Scoring (only TDs).  As opposed to #22 in 2012.
  • Saints rank #27 in NFL Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage.
  • Panthers rank #13 NFL Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage.
Field goals will not win this game for the Panthers as in recent years show that they are designed to lean on power defense.  They will need to get in the end zone, or stop the Saints from reaching the end zone.  But, with the Saint's averaging 31.2 points away, that's going to be a very big task for this defense of late.

Opportunity
The Saints have a chance to make another statement, a bigger statement, that they can win on the road against a division rival in a revenge situation.  This, in my opinion, is more opportunistic than the Panthers desperation to get back on the winning track since their last win in week 5.  

Superbowl Contention
The Saints were highly expected to be a Superbowl contender this year and have let people down.  If you don't think they are aware of this, you are misled, because the Saints front office is aware of this.  These expectations trickle down.  

Finally
With that said, trends do matter, but they also don't have as nearly as much clout in certain spots.  And, in my humble opinion, this is one of those spots.  

Best of Luck to All



 
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Posted: #98
I was leaning Panthers but after this write up I may change my mind

Saints are 1-9 SU in last 10 road games (reg season)
Saints are 1-9 ATS in last 10 road games
Saints are 0-6 ATS in last 6 as a road favorite

Looks like all this junk ends tonight..


 
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Posted: #99
Cool deal
 
 
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Posted: #100
Awesome write-up, Slick. There is one point I disagree with - the TE angle. NO haven't face any stud on the TE position all season long despite Jason Witten and he is far from elite so far this year. Anyway, Romo was 5/5 throwing on him for 12.2 yards per attempt. Defending Greg Olse will be a different story.

Good luck this week. May the better team cover tomorrow
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