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Slick100's NFL Thread

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Posted: #126
Nilshu, thanks alot.  That's very nice of you to say.  Hope you have a very profitable season, buddy.

Tball, Best of Luck 
 
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Posted: #127
11/2/2014
I don't sleep.

Sandwich Situation
The Bengals are 2-0 in their division with four divisional match-ups left.  The Bengals are off a close win against a division rival, the Ravens.  They host today the lowly Jaguars, and next week, the Browns.  Winning next weeks game would put them in a favorable spot in the division leaving them with three games left.  If they were to win one of those three that would almost seal their ticket to the playoffs.  So, winning next week is very important to catapulting this club in the drive seat of their division.  

Denard Robinson Vs The Bengals' Rush Defense
This back has been producing for the past couple of weeks.  They increased his touches from five to 22 in week seven, and it has paid off for the Jaguars.  In his past two starts, he has 5.9 y/a, 235 yds, one touchdown, and a 41 yard long run.  

Rush Def. (w/ DVOA rush def. rk) Robinson has Faced
CLE (30) 127/1
MIA (9) 108/0

The Bengals rush defense is #32.  At home, The Bengals give up 125 y/g and 4.7 y/a.  Out of all their match-ups thus far, they have allowed all but two games +100 yds.  The other two match-ups were +90 and were the first two games of the season.  Their d-line against run blocking is #31.  

The Jaguars' Defense Vs The Bengals' Offense
Their is not much DVOA gap between the two teams.  They match-up just fine.  Where the disparity in the match-up is the Jaguars pass offense #31 Vs the Bengals pass defense #2, but I will address this in the next section.

Here are some notes to the Jaguars defense: 
They are #11 (DVOA).  They have 25 sacks, tied at #2.  Their rush defense average 4.0 y/a ranking them at #9.  

The Jaguars' Offense Hypothesis
With Robinson as starter, this relieves pressure for Bortles.  The Jaguars rush play percentage is 36.45% for the season.  With Robinson's latest starts, that percentage has spiked 13.55% to 50%.  This is very beneficial for the offense shifting to a run/pass balance.  

Final Thoughts
Bengals are playing against a very under-rated Jaguars (as of late) sandwiched in between two division match-ups.

Play
JAX +10.5, 2u
 
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Posted: #128
11/2/2014

Sunday Football Plays 
Mia -2.5 -110, 2u (12:00 CT)
Jax +10.5 -115, 2u (12:00 CT)
Sf -10 -110, 2u (3:05 CT)

Best of Luck to All


 
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Posted: #129
11/2/2014

Added
Ari +2.5 -110, 2u
Den -3 -110, 2u

Final Sunday Football Plays
Mia -2.5 -110, 2u (12:00 CT)
Jax +10.5 -115, 2u (12:00 CT)
Ari +2.5 -110, 2u (12:00 CT)
Sf -10 -110, 2u (3:05 CT)
Den -3 -110, 2u (3:25 CT)
 
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Posted: #130

With you on Denver and Zona, against you none...good luck Bruh

-wolfe

The impossible only takes longer….
 
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Posted: #131
 
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Posted: #132
wolfman, thanks, bud.  Lets cash 
trainwreck, 
 
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Posted: #133
11/2/2014

8-0 run

Sunday Football Action Recap (12:00)
Mia -2.5 -110, 2u
Ari +2.5 -110, 2u
Jax +10.5 -115, 2u

Sunday Football Plays (3:00 CT)
Sf -10 -110, 2u
Den -3 -110, 2u

10-0 possibly 
 
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Posted: #134
11/2/2014

No play for tonight.  
Best of Luck to All 

Sunday Football Action Recap
Mia -2.5 -110, 2u
Ari +2.5 -110, 2u
Jax +10.5 -115, 2u
Sf -10 -110, 2u
Den -3 -110, 2u

Overall Record
Sides:  35-25-1, 12.05u
Totals:  5-1, 8u
1h:  2-2, 1.35u
2h:  6-4, 3.75u
1q:  0-1, 1.05u
Live:  1-3, 1.95u
Parlay:  0-1, 0.5u
Teaser:  0-1-1, 1.05u
Alt Line:  0-2, 1u

Total Units:  19.6u
 
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Posted: #135
11/3/2014

I'm going to attempt to keep this short and to the point.  I have other work to attend to for the ladder part of my 9 to 5. 

Giants Playoff Picture
This club is sub-par, but they are not entirely done, yet.  They are currently 3-4 and 1-2 (in div), with six games remaining.

Schedule
WK9 IND (5-3)
WK10 @SEA (5-3)
WK11 SF (4-4)
WK12 DAL (6-3)
WK13 @JAX (1-8)
WK14 @TEN (2-6)
WK15 WAS (3-6)
WK16 @RAMS (3-5)
WK17 PHI (6-2)

They face five team above .500 and four sub .500 teams.  If they were to go to the playoffs they would need seven more wins.  The Cowboys and Eagles have an easier schedule the rest of the way.  So, they will have to go through some tough teams to make it, starting with the Colts.

Colts Pass Offense Vs Giants Secondary
The Colts qb-wr tandem is one of the best in the business.  They are #6 (DVOA) through the air.  Luck is #3 in the quarterbacks column.  They are getting back R. Wayne.  Luck has the most passing yards in the league, 2731.  He has had only one game under 300 yards.  Hilton is #2 in wide the wide receiver category.  He leads the league in yards, 867.  
The Giants secondary are banged up.  Rodgers-Comartie is listed as questionable.  It will be very difficult for this secondary to stop Luck & Co., but they can.  They can stop them by being sound on their assignments.  If each DB knows where the help will be, they can slow down this offensive machine, and possibly, generate interceptions.  The Giants have always been a ball club that has done this well.  And, coming off a bye week, that should have given them plenty of time to scheme.

Final Thoughts
Sometimes, you have to put your money on the desperate team, and not the better one.  Here, the Giants are desperate, and the Colts, not at all (5-3, 3-0).  The Giants will have to execute on the field, and if they do, we will see interceptions.  That would be just the momentum this Giants offense would need to get going against this weak and most inconsistent Colts defense.

Play
Nyg +3 -105, 1u

Best of Luck to All
 
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Posted: #136
11/3/2014

Added
Donnell o42.5 Receiving Yards -130, 1u
 
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Posted: #137
GL Slick

Go Midgets
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #138
11/3/2014

Giants have given up and injuries.

Added
Ind -27.5 -120, 1u
 
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Posted: #139

Hey Slick - no Week 10 plays?  Hope all is well!

 
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Posted: #140
11/17/2014

Update
Went on a cold streak three weeks back.  Then, the week after I  went on a 13-0 run (NFL & CFB).  Cashed out.  But, this past week, unfortunately, I followed the streak up with a 2-6 run.  I could of lost two more units, but I decided not to fire on that play, dodging a bullet.

Below is my overall record I copied over from excel.   

WBankroll:Total1h2h1qLiveParlayTeaserAlt Line
L P Tot. Units
$2,500
9 1 0 16   Profit: 1407.5
2 3 0 0.3 ROI: 56%
7 5 0 3.65
0 1 0 -1.05
1 4 0 -3.15
0 1 0 -0.5
1 1 1 0.95  
1 2 0 1.5
Player Props 1 1 0 -0.15
Total
 
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Posted: #141
WBankroll:Total1h2h1qLiveParlayTeaserAlt Line
L P Tot. Units
$2,500
9 1 0 16   Profit: 1407.5
2 3 0 0.3 ROI: 56%
7 5 0 3.65
0 1 0 -1.05
1 4 0 -3.15
0 1 0 -0.5
1 1 1 0.95  
1 2 0 1.5
Player Props 1 1 0 -0.15
Total
 
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Posted: #142
^Well, that sux.
Some info that was missed from above.
Sides: 39-30-1 +10.6
Tot:  9-1 +16u
yah...yah...yah...
Bankroll:  2500
Profit:  1407.5
ROI:  56%



 
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Posted: #143
11/17/2014

Juice
I changed my approach slightly when it comes to wagering on games to reduce the break-even point.  I won't play on anything that cost more than 10 cents on the juice.  Unless I feel very strongly on the outcome.  

Monday Night Football (off the top of my head rant)
Steelers are just to inconsistent for me to play on, and I'm not certain about the Titans.  Another thing, I was pretty square on my plays this week and got bit so maybe I am reluctant from that with  taking the Steelers.  On the flip side, I can't back Mettenberger in this weather, and I just haven't seen enough of him.  I'm going to stay away.  

A side note on the Steelers:
They are dead last in RZ Scoring Percentage at 25%.
They are tied for 2nd for most Fumbles Lost.

The total, however, I'm going to fire on.  It's going to be cold, slightly breezy.  A back up, rookie, quarterback starting for a team that has 3rd Down Conversion Percentage 29.91%.  The Steelers are way to inconsistent, and they are playing away against a team that will treat this game like if it were playoffs.  

I know, the overs, the overs... but, with Vegas adjusting to Primetime totals, I can't skip out on the value of taking the under that could very possibly be a sloppy game.  

MNF Play
1h Ten u23.5 1u
Ten u46 1u

*I'll no longer state the price on the lines now that I'm not purchasing any line that is more than 10 cents.



 
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Posted: #144
11/17/2014

Added
Teaser Pit -1 & Ten u52 1u
 
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Posted: #145
11/22/2014

Record Update
Sides:  40-30-1, 14.6u
Money Line:  1-0, 2.6u
Totals:  9-2, 14.8u
1h:  2-4, -0.8u
2h:  8-6, 3.6u
Live:  1-4, -3.15u
Parlay:  0-1, -0.5u
Teasers:  2-1-1, 1.95u
Alt. Line:  1-2, 1.5u
Play Props:  1-1, -0.15u

Total:  65-52-2, 33.4u
 
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Posted: #146
11/23/2014

Sunday Plays
12:00 cst
Min +10, 2u
Cin +1.5, 2u
Tam +5.5, 2u *(PENDING)
3:05 cst
Sea -7, 2u
3:25 cst
Mia +7, 2u **(PENDING)
7:30 cst
Nyg +3.5 -105, 2u

*waiting on injury report.
**waiting on a better price.

Best of Luck to All


 
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Posted: #147
bol today slick
 
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Posted: #148
*handshake*
 
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Posted: #149
Thanks, gents.
 
 
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Posted: #150
11/23/2014

Update
Tam +4, 2u (NO PLAY)
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