Well, first losing week. It sucked, but I had a good run. There is a whole lot of room for improvement in my capping ability, and I'm going to take this loss as a learning experience. Press on.
I'm not sure if I'll make a play tomorrow since I made some mistakes that I shouldn't have made and take the time to regroup. I'm going to sleep on it, and decide then.
I'll update my NFL Season Record tomorrow.
BOL to all!
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LOCKED
CIN -2.5 -115 1u
Today's Record: 2-3-1
Total Units: 2.9u
Well, first losing week. It sucked, but I had a good run. There is a whole lot of room for improvement in my capping ability, and I'm going to take this loss as a learning experience. Press on.
I'm not sure if I'll make a play tomorrow since I made some mistakes that I shouldn't have made and take the time to regroup. I'm going to sleep on it, and decide then.
Washington is coming off an embarrassing loss on TNF last week at home. They play the Cardinals next week. Seattle is coming off a bye week. The previous week they won in OT against the Broncos. They play the Cowboys at home next week.
Cousins had four interceptions in his previous match up which begs for question his accuracy. He is facing a daunting secondary, but for him to throw four picks again is very unlikely. His offensive line isn't bad at pass protection and run blocking. Morris has average 4.5 yard and Helu 5.3 yard. They are running well. Defensively, not too bad either. They were lit up against the Giants, but it they had no help from their offense with five turnovers.
The defending champs are something special. I can say that with no doubt, but they are beatable against the spread away. However, they face an opponent that performs poorly under prime time lights. Carroll and his staff have had two weeks to prepare for this match up on Monday night. His team is well rested and extremely talented. Their will be no sign of complacency - it's Monday Night Football.
The Redskins were blown out on Thursday night last week. Cousins has had extended rest and more time to work and prep with his offense. Gruden's team now have a shot at redemption against the Superbowl Champions on the season's biggest stage to prove they were not the team who were embarrassed last time around on Thursday night. The Seahawks know this. They have risen to the occasion against this. This is how they became so respected .... by crushing opponents on prime time. Remember the Superbowl?
LOCKED
SEA -7 -120 1u
0
10/6/2014
Monday Night Football
Washington is coming off an embarrassing loss on TNF last week at home. They play the Cardinals next week. Seattle is coming off a bye week. The previous week they won in OT against the Broncos. They play the Cowboys at home next week.
Cousins had four interceptions in his previous match up which begs for question his accuracy. He is facing a daunting secondary, but for him to throw four picks again is very unlikely. His offensive line isn't bad at pass protection and run blocking. Morris has average 4.5 yard and Helu 5.3 yard. They are running well. Defensively, not too bad either. They were lit up against the Giants, but it they had no help from their offense with five turnovers.
The defending champs are something special. I can say that with no doubt, but they are beatable against the spread away. However, they face an opponent that performs poorly under prime time lights. Carroll and his staff have had two weeks to prepare for this match up on Monday night. His team is well rested and extremely talented. Their will be no sign of complacency - it's Monday Night Football.
The Redskins were blown out on Thursday night last week. Cousins has had extended rest and more time to work and prep with his offense. Gruden's team now have a shot at redemption against the Superbowl Champions on the season's biggest stage to prove they were not the team who were embarrassed last time around on Thursday night. The Seahawks know this. They have risen to the occasion against this. This is how they became so respected .... by crushing opponents on prime time. Remember the Superbowl?
Colts head to Houston to face a divisional rival. They are off their third straight win. They face the Cinncy the following week. The Texans are off an overtime loss in Dallas. They face the Steelers next week.
The Texans are off an away overtime loss having to face a divisional rival at home on a short week is not a good spot. And, it seems, that Foster's moral is down. He openly shared his critique about TNF to the media and came off resentful for having to play this upcoming Thursday. Something like this can affect other players' attitudes.
Chuck Pagiano has mentioned this week that him and his staff have been preparing for this game long before this week, knowing that the short week would hinder their preparations. He is 3-0-1 ATS when away facing a divisional opponent. Another thing, is that, Luck has the ability to length plays with his feet. This really wears on defenses, more so than, a mobile, strong, quarterback off short rest.
Vegas has set the line that marks the Colts favorite by good margin. And, as tempting as it is to take the home dog in a divisional match up, it doesn't prove profitable (in this spot). A team heading away for TNF to face a divisional rival that is favored between -3.5 to -2.5 is 8-2-1 ATS.
LOCKED
IND -3 +105 1u
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10/8/2014
Write-Up for TNF
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Colts head to Houston to face a divisional rival. They are off their third straight win. They face the Cinncy the following week. The Texans are off an overtime loss in Dallas. They face the Steelers next week.
The Texans are off an away overtime loss having to face a divisional rival at home on a short week is not a good spot. And, it seems, that Foster's moral is down. He openly shared his critique about TNF to the media and came off resentful for having to play this upcoming Thursday. Something like this can affect other players' attitudes.
Chuck Pagiano has mentioned this week that him and his staff have been preparing for this game long before this week, knowing that the short week would hinder their preparations. He is 3-0-1 ATS when away facing a divisional opponent. Another thing, is that, Luck has the ability to length plays with his feet. This really wears on defenses, more so than, a mobile, strong, quarterback off short rest.
Vegas has set the line that marks the Colts favorite by good margin. And, as tempting as it is to take the home dog in a divisional match up, it doesn't prove profitable (in this spot). A team heading away for TNF to face a divisional rival that is favored between -3.5 to -2.5 is 8-2-1 ATS.
Is a unit just what people bet $10 for one guy and $1000 for another? So if you liked it alot you might put 2U?
It really depends on the player. Typically, 1unit equals 1% of a bettors bankroll. This is the approach I use anyway. I'll bet 1unit to 2units early in the season, and if I really like the game I'll bet 3units. As the season progresses my max will change to 5units, or it won't depending on how I'm doing. It's just a way for me to manage my money.
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Quote Originally Posted by jizno:
Is a unit just what people bet $10 for one guy and $1000 for another? So if you liked it alot you might put 2U?
It really depends on the player. Typically, 1unit equals 1% of a bettors bankroll. This is the approach I use anyway. I'll bet 1unit to 2units early in the season, and if I really like the game I'll bet 3units. As the season progresses my max will change to 5units, or it won't depending on how I'm doing. It's just a way for me to manage my money.
Gino Smith doesn't have heart for the game. His absence to a team meeting a day before the Charger's game shows that he doesn't care about winning. I know that might sound to some like an exaggeration, but he doesn't. He's not a leader or a talented quarterback. And, he's going to face a team led by a quarterback who is all business. He is the complete polar opposite of Gino - a winner. The Broncos are going to finish what little is left in Ryan's Jets for good.
Manning with the Broncos are 5-2 ATS during the season when away favorited by seven or more points.
I tend to stay away from lines like this because of the lack of value, that's why I'm only wagering a unit. And, their will be better spots down the road to play on the Broncos and against the Jets.
LOCKED
DEN -8.5 -115 1u
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10/10/2014
A Play and Write-Up for Sunday
Gino Smith doesn't have heart for the game. His absence to a team meeting a day before the Charger's game shows that he doesn't care about winning. I know that might sound to some like an exaggeration, but he doesn't. He's not a leader or a talented quarterback. And, he's going to face a team led by a quarterback who is all business. He is the complete polar opposite of Gino - a winner. The Broncos are going to finish what little is left in Ryan's Jets for good.
Manning with the Broncos are 5-2 ATS during the season when away favorited by seven or more points.
I tend to stay away from lines like this because of the lack of value, that's why I'm only wagering a unit. And, their will be better spots down the road to play on the Broncos and against the Jets.
Both teams are off back-to-back losses. Only difference between the two teams losing streaks is that the Falcons losses were both away, and the Bears were split (home & away). A team playing at home off back-to-back away losses favored by three hosting an opponent also off back-to-back losses is 2-6-1 ATS. Mike Smith's Falcons, as home favorites by three are 1-3 ATS.
The best word that could be used to describe the Bears is inconsistent. Their offense is Jekyll and Hyde. You really don't know which Cutler is going to take the snap, and they are one of the most penalized teams. Just, plain sloppy at times. But, one thing they can do, and that's put up points. And, one thing the Falcons do well is give up points.
The Bears have faced an above average selection of defenses and have managed to average 23 points a game. That's not bad considering the defense they'll be facing on Sunday. Falcon's defense is one of the worst. Especially against the pass. Although, the Falcons do have big play ability on special teams. Hester's speed straight up kills. This won't be the problem, though. If this game comes down to the wire which Vegas is predicting, and Cutler has the ball, I'd definitely choose Cutler (for a back door cover) over a porous defense holding them to a loss of downs.
I'm going to hold breathe and may take Cutler & Co. to back door the Falcons.
I'm still capping games. If I like other plays ahead of this one, it will be a no play.
LEAN
CHI +3 Ev 1u
0
10/11/2014
A Lean & Write-Up
Both teams are off back-to-back losses. Only difference between the two teams losing streaks is that the Falcons losses were both away, and the Bears were split (home & away). A team playing at home off back-to-back away losses favored by three hosting an opponent also off back-to-back losses is 2-6-1 ATS. Mike Smith's Falcons, as home favorites by three are 1-3 ATS.
The best word that could be used to describe the Bears is inconsistent. Their offense is Jekyll and Hyde. You really don't know which Cutler is going to take the snap, and they are one of the most penalized teams. Just, plain sloppy at times. But, one thing they can do, and that's put up points. And, one thing the Falcons do well is give up points.
The Bears have faced an above average selection of defenses and have managed to average 23 points a game. That's not bad considering the defense they'll be facing on Sunday. Falcon's defense is one of the worst. Especially against the pass. Although, the Falcons do have big play ability on special teams. Hester's speed straight up kills. This won't be the problem, though. If this game comes down to the wire which Vegas is predicting, and Cutler has the ball, I'd definitely choose Cutler (for a back door cover) over a porous defense holding them to a loss of downs.
I'm going to hold breathe and may take Cutler & Co. to back door the Falcons.
I'm still capping games. If I like other plays ahead of this one, it will be a no play.
The Vikings are off an away divisional loss to the Packers. They host the Lions, and face the Bills next week. The Lions are off a loss to the Bills and host the Saints next week.
Aside from the Lions impressive offense, their defense is one of the best. However, the offense is not going to have the same fire power and will struggle to put up points w/out Johnson (and Bush). Their entire offense is designed around him. The Lions will lean on their defense more than ever in this match-up.
The Vikings are off an embarrassing loss on TNF at Lambeau. But, Bridgewater was injuried. The Vikings were put in a tough spot on a short week. The team ended up running with Christian Ponder. Bridgewaters injury put the Vikings in a tough bind. This matchup against the Lions is far from those circumstance. Bridgewater will start, and this guy is solid. I know the data is small, very small, one game small, and it was against the Falcon's lousy defense. He still surpassed expectations.
As great of a defense the Lions have I'm not quite sure they are as great of a group as they are at home. And, they've never faced Bridgewater. The material to study on him is only made up of six quarters. Plus, the Vikings are off an embarrassing divisional loss on TNF. Zimmer is going to be highly motivated to get this divisional win at home and has had extended time to prepare.
There is 65% of the public on Detriot. So I'm going to wait to see if the line will move Minnesota's way.
LEAN
MIN -1
0
10/11/2014
A Lean & Write-Up
The Vikings are off an away divisional loss to the Packers. They host the Lions, and face the Bills next week. The Lions are off a loss to the Bills and host the Saints next week.
Aside from the Lions impressive offense, their defense is one of the best. However, the offense is not going to have the same fire power and will struggle to put up points w/out Johnson (and Bush). Their entire offense is designed around him. The Lions will lean on their defense more than ever in this match-up.
The Vikings are off an embarrassing loss on TNF at Lambeau. But, Bridgewater was injuried. The Vikings were put in a tough spot on a short week. The team ended up running with Christian Ponder. Bridgewaters injury put the Vikings in a tough bind. This matchup against the Lions is far from those circumstance. Bridgewater will start, and this guy is solid. I know the data is small, very small, one game small, and it was against the Falcon's lousy defense. He still surpassed expectations.
As great of a defense the Lions have I'm not quite sure they are as great of a group as they are at home. And, they've never faced Bridgewater. The material to study on him is only made up of six quarters. Plus, the Vikings are off an embarrassing divisional loss on TNF. Zimmer is going to be highly motivated to get this divisional win at home and has had extended time to prepare.
There is 65% of the public on Detriot. So I'm going to wait to see if the line will move Minnesota's way.
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CIN -2.5 -115 1u
Monday Night Football
SEA -7 -120 1u
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