10/31/2014
Injuries
SF - Notables
OUT Daniel Kilgore (C) - the most important piece to the o-line. Rookie Marcus Martin gets the start, but has had the bye week to prepare. Harbaugh had nothing but good things to say about his classroom work, attitude, and practice on the field. He'll be going against Rams rookie Aaron Donald who plays solid.
PLAYING Patrick Willis (ILB) - all-pro will start.
PLAYING Mike Iupati (G) - one of the best run-blockers in the league.
STL Notables
OUT Jake Long (T) - all-pro is out. He is a veteran, but his productivity is trending downward as of late.
OUT Brian Quick (WR) - was listed as WR #2. He is second in team targets, reception TDs, and y/g. He is also first in yds and third in y/r.
PLAYING Trumaine Johnson (CB) - will return after a sprain MCL during the preseason.
QUESTIONABLE Janoris Jenkins (CB) - DNP on Thursday.
Rams Pass Defense Vs 49ers Pass Offense
Rams are last in pass defense (DVOA). The d-line against pass protection are #32, and have six sacks putting them last in that category. The Rams secondary is very poor, but with Johnson and Jenkins returning this should improve against the pass. I just don't think it'll be that much of boost for this poor d-line to lean on.
The 49ers starting center will be out. This is a crucial injury to the o-line being that the center makes the blocking assignments. Marcus Martin will be replacing Kilgore. He is a rookie picked up in the 3rd round and was injured before the season started. Kaep was sacked six times for a loss of 53yds a couple of weeks ago in Denver. Martin's role protecting Kaep and making the correct blocking assignment decisions will be crucial to a 49ers offense that passes 54.45% of the time. The o-line also ranks #28 in pass protection. So it's imperative for a solid performance from rookie center, Martin. Kaep does have the ability to extend plays with his legs buying more time for receivers to get open.
Kaep Vs the Rams
- Kaep has a 117.6 passer rating the past three games against the Rams
- Kaep has a 65.3 completion percentage with six touchdowns and zero picks in his last four meetings against the Rams.
- Kaep was't sacked completing 22/35 for 343 yds and three touchdowns last meeting in St. Louis
Bottom line, the Rams are horrible against the pass, and the 49ers will struggle at center. The bye week should benefit the line giving Martin extra time to be caught up to speed and with Kaeps playmaking ability, should lead to another long day for the Rams pass rush and secondary.
Rams Rush Defense Vs 49ers Rush Offense
The Rams had success against the 49ers ground game in their prior meeting. They did a good job, but the problem with that is that it was their only solid performance this season. If you look at other match-ups against the run they were diced up. Plus, the 49ers fell behind early in that game forcing them to go to the air. The 49ers have struggled running the ball the past two games. Both those games were away. At home their rush y/a is 4.7. They average away 3.6. Thats a huge difference and against worthy opponents at home against the run.
Rams Rush Offense Vs 49ers Rush Defense
49ers Running Backs Faced this Season
D. Murray - 118yds
M. Forte - 21
A. Ellington - 62
L. McCoy - 17
J. Charles - 80
Z. Stacy - 17
R. Hillman - 74
Last meeting, the 49ers held them to 89 yds total rushing. If the 49ers have the same success as they did in St. Louis, this is going to add more pressure for Davis to make plays with his arm. This will be a difficult task for the 49ers defensive unit because the Rams rush y/a is 0.8 of a difference from home to away. It is disconcerning if you are a 49ers backer but knowing that the 49ers rush defense has had success against strong rbs consistently puts that to rest.
Rams Pass Offense Vs 49ers Pass Defense
The Rams pass offense is #27. They have allowed 23 sacks, #5 in that category. The o-line pass protection is #30. The line is struggling big time with injuries. Primarily, with Long out, and Greg Robinson doing a poor job replacing him at left tackle. Scott Wells (C) will return as starter.
In my opinion, Davis has still done a fine job with this bad, patched-up o-line, but he still makes a lot of mistakes. This line is not helping him and only accentuates his mistakes. His WR#2, Quick, is out. He led the team with y/g. Davis is limited greatly in the pass, and with Wells returning, I don't think it'll be enough to get this line jellying.
The 49ers against the pass ranks #8, and they have Willis, Culliver, Brock, and Ward returning. They have already managed with injuries and suspensions, and with these guys returning it's only going to be more stout. This pass defense has 6.6 y/a, ranking 4th in this category, and at home they lead the league with 4.9 y/a. Their weakness is getting to the quarterback. However, this wasn't an issue last meeting getting to Davis five times.
Final Thoughts
The Rams are in a bad spot here. They are beat up, and have to go on the road against a stout 49ers defense and against a quarterback that plays very well against them. The 49ers are going to make a big push coming off a bye week to make an attempt to take the lead of their division. This could get ugly..
Play
Sf -10 -110, 2u
Best of Luck to All
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