Superbowl Rams vs Bengals. Dont overthink it.

Quote Originally Posted by Nedtan:

Van I believe your regression analysis suffers from not only from non constant variance (heteroskedaskity) but also multi-collinearity. Please run an AUto Regression model to smooth out the variance and get back to us. Lmao this is just a friendly troll I got all this stuff in my head and making posts on covers is all I can do with it … cuz I’m just Tony’s bitch working entry level finance .. maybe I should take my talents to the gambling underworld

Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals:

Lol the blatantly shove in your face that you're watching a movie , in the game intro

Quote Originally Posted by sportschat:

No matter what happens you've  had a great season. Your threads are most informative and a learning experience

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I had to put that in my thread title.  I love when people say that.  You can rest assured, I have overthought everything. NFL Season:  +27.49 unitsNFL Playoffs:  8-4  +12.95 units   Rams -4 (4.5 units)   I'm not going to waste a lot of time writing up a narrative on this game, because it has all been written.  These are the top reasons of why I think the Rams at -4 are a good bet: * There really is no comparison on any stat you want to look, or any case to be made for the Bengals O line against the Rams D line.  Burrow will have pressure, and the Bengals will have to run successfully to have a chance at scoring 20+.* Bengals defense is a terrible matchup against Rams offense.  Screens and short passing will be exploited by the Rams and should be unstoppable.* Bengals, and Joe Burrow included - have not been as good as their results in their playoff games.  The Burrow narrative is driving a false reality of what actually happened in those playoff games.  * The Rams advantages on the field will hopefully make up for the coaching disadvantages (biggest worry)   I am going to concentrate most of my writeup on what I think is very interesting about this game - and something that will get lost in all of the noise of the SB but is some insight in to how I evaluate these things.... In 1k simulations, I have the Rams at a median winning value of 6.8.  That means my spread for this game is Rams -6.8.  That means a pretty solid play on the Rams, and a 63.4% chance they will cover or push the spread at -4 (60.9% they beat the -4). But also interesting is that in those 1k simulations - the standard deviation is 11.5 - which is in the 90+ percentile for standard deviation of my 2021 NFL season.  Standard deviation can be looked at as the variance potential in a distribution of values.  In general terms - 68% of the time the result will fall in the 1st standard deviation.   95% will fall within 2 standard deviations. So taking my initial spread value of Rams -6.8, it looks like the following:68% chance of final result falling between Rams -18.3 and Bengals -4.795% chance of final result falling between Rams -29.8 and Bengals -16.2 11.5 is a high NFL standard deviation.  So I will be betting alt spreads also because the price I can get on alt spreads is better than my predicted chance of that result - +EV.   To me, the narrative of the Rams being better than a 4 point favorite is supported by my data, as is alternative spreads.   But I digress to what everyone really wants to hear at Covers... The Rams have scored 20+ in every game this season.  They should score almost at will on the Bengals defense.  The Bengals defensive adjustment limited the Chiefs in the last 35 minutes of the game - and basically is what allowed them to win by scoring 24.   24 points is not enough for Cincy to win this SB.  Plain and simple.  And they are playing an infinitely better defense than they have seen in the playoffs - and potentially all season. I think the Rams win from buzzer to buzzer - and it isnt really close.  Burrow is great - he will be back - but this Bengals team is not built to win a SB right now.  Rams 38 Bengals 16 GL all.  The SB is always bittersweet.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

McVay obv thinks running on every first down is the strategy

Quote Originally Posted by tech65:

Blowout

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

HT 13-10 Not feeling confident that the rams will open it up