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Superbowl Rams vs Bengals. Dont overthink it.

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Legend
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Posted: #126

Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474:

Brandon Lang on the Rams

Who?

There are literally 20 million other people on the rams, and about the same on the Bengals.

I worry what I do.  This is the economy of Vanzack.

peace_5

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Posted: #127

Really? Who?

You have no idea who that scum is? 

All degenerate gamblers know who he is I thought. 

 
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Posted: #128

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #129

Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474:

Really? Who? You have no idea who that scum is?  All degenerate gamblers know who he is I thought.

I do know who he is.

But he is irrelevant to me.  Just more noise.

an_cheers

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #130

Cheers

 

Any prop leans?

Really have to believe that Kupp Odell Higgins see a lot of balls? 

 
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Posted: #131

Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474:

Cheers   Any prop leans? Really have to believe that Kupp Odell Higgins see a lot of balls?

My problem with props is tons of work to analyze, and very low limits.

But yes - anything that follows the rams narrative sounds good to me.  

GL today

peace_5

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #132

clover  with the game  Van 

 

nice call with Wolves earlier an_eek2

 

you looking forward to the return of the Champions League this Tuesday and Wednesday ? 

 

Keep Calm and Bet 10 Play Over Parlays
 
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Posted: #133

Quote Originally Posted by Supersharpone:

So all of a sudden our resident expert becomes a phd data scientist with this nonsense talk about standard deviations and percentages that he knows no one on covers would know or - dare i say - challenge him on.  Bengals to the bank. Less talk, more action bud.

Please name the players on the Bengals defense that compare to these Rams defenders and how they will stop Stafford and company.

Donald, Miller, Floyd, Jones, Okoronkwo, Ramsey, Rapp, Weddle.

That’s 8 solid pretty solid defenders. 

 
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Posted: #134

@vanzack

 U write a book. Money talk....flip the coin if u got lucky on the side with less money. peace_5 Vegas

analysis and trend don't shit anything,,,,

 
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Posted: #135

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I had to put that in my thread title.  I love when people say that.  You can rest assured, I have overthought everything. NFL Season:  +27.49 unitsNFL Playoffs:  8-4  +12.95 units   Rams -4 (4.5 units)   I'm not going to waste a lot of time writing up a narrative on this game, because it has all been written.  These are the top reasons of why I think the Rams at -4 are a good bet: * There really is no comparison on any stat you want to look, or any case to be made for the Bengals O line against the Rams D line.  Burrow will have pressure, and the Bengals will have to run successfully to have a chance at scoring 20+.* Bengals defense is a terrible matchup against Rams offense.  Screens and short passing will be exploited by the Rams and should be unstoppable.* Bengals, and Joe Burrow included - have not been as good as their results in their playoff games.  The Burrow narrative is driving a false reality of what actually happened in those playoff games.  * The Rams advantages on the field will hopefully make up for the coaching disadvantages (biggest worry)   I am going to concentrate most of my writeup on what I think is very interesting about this game - and something that will get lost in all of the noise of the SB but is some insight in to how I evaluate these things.... In 1k simulations, I have the Rams at a median winning value of 6.8.  That means my spread for this game is Rams -6.8.  That means a pretty solid play on the Rams, and a 63.4% chance they will cover or push the spread at -4 (60.9% they beat the -4). But also interesting is that in those 1k simulations - the standard deviation is 11.5 - which is in the 90+ percentile for standard deviation of my 2021 NFL season.  Standard deviation can be looked at as the variance potential in a distribution of values.  In general terms - 68% of the time the result will fall in the 1st standard deviation.   95% will fall within 2 standard deviations. So taking my initial spread value of Rams -6.8, it looks like the following:68% chance of final result falling between Rams -18.3 and Bengals -4.795% chance of final result falling between Rams -29.8 and Bengals -16.2 11.5 is a high NFL standard deviation.  So I will be betting alt spreads also because the price I can get on alt spreads is better than my predicted chance of that result - +EV.   To me, the narrative of the Rams being better than a 4 point favorite is supported by my data, as is alternative spreads.   But I digress to what everyone really wants to hear at Covers... The Rams have scored 20+ in every game this season.  They should score almost at will on the Bengals defense.  The Bengals defensive adjustment limited the Chiefs in the last 35 minutes of the game - and basically is what allowed them to win by scoring 24.   24 points is not enough for Cincy to win this SB.  Plain and simple.  And they are playing an infinitely better defense than they have seen in the playoffs - and potentially all season. I think the Rams win from buzzer to buzzer - and it isnt really close.  Burrow is great - he will be back - but this Bengals team is not built to win a SB right now.  Rams 38 Bengals 16 GL all.  The SB is always bittersweet.

You’re trying too hard nerd. Hope to see you around here postgame 

 
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Posted: #136

Wow lots of haters in here 

 
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Posted: #137

Quote Originally Posted by m3ntal:

Wow lots of haters in here

Those who cant do, hate. They are so frustrated that they cant win, the direct all of their own self hate on winners.

Bunch of cavemen at covers. But some gems also.

peace_5

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #138

Quote Originally Posted by MasterNBA:

@vanzack  U write a book. Money talk....flip the coin if u got lucky on the side with less money.  Vegas analysis and trend don't shit anything,,,,

If anyone shouldnt write a book, it is you.

 

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #139

@vanzack

I'm a Gem!  an_wink  bigsmile  peace_5

 
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Posted: #140

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by m3ntal: Wow lots of haters in here Those who cant do, hate. They are so frustrated that they cant win, the direct all of their own self hate on winners. Bunch of cavemen at covers. But some gems also.
Im more of a peach....but I guess gem could also describe me.an_wink

 
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Posted: #141

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by MasterNBA: @vanzack  U write a book. Money talk....flip the coin if u got lucky on the side with less money.  Vegas analysis and trend don't shit anything,,,, If anyone shouldnt write a book, it is you.

That was f#cking funny...an_roll_laugh  I wouldn't lose any sleep on that possibility happening anytime soon...an_cheers

Good luck with Rams.  I ended up taking some parlays earlier in week on NHL games and Rams ML. 

Re: attempt to create predictive models, I'm betting and watching NHL right now to see what I can learn and attempt to model.  Probably going to wait until next year's season, as there is always so much data to go through.  I've noticed that early in the season, Faves rocked it, but now Dogs seem to be barking loud and often.  What I can't filter out is how Covid and players sitting out last minute are affecting outcomes.  I believe you wrote that NFL is the easiet to model - is that b/c of the overwhelming lower number of games?

 

 
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Posted: #142

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik: Appreciate the thorough reply.  I have been working (cant say where/what) on some predictive modeling, and my biggest challenge is trying to find efficient/effective ways to reduce overall variance driven by large number of inputs and assumptions.  I sometimes get STD Dev so high, that the predictive capability is practically worthless, and so trying to knock down either the number of inputs, or rank them in importance, are a couple of ways to try and come up with a more useful prediction. From what I understand ("Basically, I have a dashboard where I can give values to importance of many factors.  Things like turnovers, qbs, run game, pass game etc."), you use some type of judgement by weighing the importance of factors, and this appears to be a way of reducing variation in your system.  I found it very interesting that higher Std Dev is your target, but after reading this a couple times, I understand that if you focused on only the low STD Dev games, it would lead to a single play or two that could cause your bet to go from winner to loser, but choosing higher Std Dev games, whereby your model predicts a skew to one side of the median or other, offers much less probability of those 1 or 2 plays biting you in the ass.  And that last bit factors in to your staking I assume - a high STd Dev + skewed sims favoring one side of the median, probably gets a higher strength rating.  Good to know that you don't purely rely on the model itself.  That is where I always seem to struggle is that addt'l element of intangibles that you and others apply. Really appreciate your post.  I have always wanted to develop a mathematical model (never have enough time, kids family, life etc.), but now that I am starting to have more, I am just gathering insights to benchmark ways to go about this. BOL to you Sir! I would be open to brainstorming new stuff with anyone here who wants to. Obviously today is a bad day to start talking about this - but when the dust settles - I wouldnt mind talking with some here who are serious about this and potentially developing something.If you need the TRAIN to tweak the model with outside, non math eye.....lemme know. The intangibles are what often escapes most models, as the numbers dont lie....but that doesnt mean they always tell the truth.

Absolutely - love your College Football picks year in and year out, TRAIN.  You have steered me away from many a game that I would have lost.  Do you dabble in NHL?

 
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Posted: #143

GL Van peace_5    I'm sure Snoop and Dre have a huge prop bet on what song will be played first at halftime. moneyeyes

 
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Posted: #144

Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik:

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik: Appreciate the thorough reply.  I have been working (cant say where/what) on some predictive modeling, and my biggest challenge is trying to find efficient/effective ways to reduce overall variance driven by large number of inputs and assumptions.  I sometimes get STD Dev so high, that the predictive capability is practically worthless, and so trying to knock down either the number of inputs, or rank them in importance, are a couple of ways to try and come up with a more useful prediction. From what I understand ("Basically, I have a dashboard where I can give values to importance of many factors.  Things like turnovers, qbs, run game, pass game etc."), you use some type of judgement by weighing the importance of factors, and this appears to be a way of reducing variation in your system.  I found it very interesting that higher Std Dev is your target, but after reading this a couple times, I understand that if you focused on only the low STD Dev games, it would lead to a single play or two that could cause your bet to go from winner to loser, but choosing higher Std Dev games, whereby your model predicts a skew to one side of the median or other, offers much less probability of those 1 or 2 plays biting you in the ass.  And that last bit factors in to your staking I assume - a high STd Dev + skewed sims favoring one side of the median, probably gets a higher strength rating.  Good to know that you don't purely rely on the model itself.  That is where I always seem to struggle is that addt'l element of intangibles that you and others apply. Really appreciate your post.  I have always wanted to develop a mathematical model (never have enough time, kids family, life etc.), but now that I am starting to have more, I am just gathering insights to benchmark ways to go about this. BOL to you Sir! I would be open to brainstorming new stuff with anyone here who wants to. Obviously today is a bad day to start talking about this - but when the dust settles - I wouldnt mind talking with some here who are serious about this and potentially developing something.If you need the TRAIN to tweak the model with outside, non math eye.....lemme know. The intangibles are what often escapes most models, as the numbers dont lie....but that doesnt mean they always tell the truth. Absolutely - love your College Football picks year in and year out, TRAIN.  You have steered me away from many a game that I would have lost.  Do you dabble in NHL?
I dabble in everything, but would never say I can cap the NHL well....I usually take ML dogs in parlays for fillers as the NHL is similar to MLB in as far as the teams aren't that far apart (compared to other sports) on a day to day basis.peace_5

 
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Posted: #145

1st time post. I hope all GL and have fun.

Im with you Rams backers.

Rams ML (-200) 

$400 to win $200

props for MVP

Donald 8-1 $5 to win $40

Von Miller 18-1 for $5 to win $90

GL all and to you Van an_cheers

Up +$1,055 (+$915 college bbal/ +$190 NFL / -$50 NBA (futures TBD)/NHL (futures TBD )
 
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Posted: #146

If anyone shouldnt write a book, it is you.

 an_roll_laugh

 
Prospect
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Posted: #147

Don't overthink it huh? Well, here's my two-bit-30-second-Johnny-come-lately analysis:

Two teams who haven't met in nearly two and a half years -> ergo, won't really have one another's measure, either strategically or defensively -> try taking the OVER

 
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Posted: #148

Van I believe your regression analysis suffers from not only from non constant variance (heteroskedaskity) but also multi-collinearity. Please run an AUto Regression model to smooth out the variance and get back to us.

Lmao this is just a friendly troll I got all this stuff in my head and making posts on covers is all I can do with it … cuz I’m just Tony’s bitch working entry level finance .. maybe I should take my talents to the gambling underworld 

 

 
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Posted: #149

cloverpeace_5

 
 
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Posted: #150

@dyamarik

 I will get to your post after the game

peace_5

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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