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Superbowl Rams vs Bengals. Dont overthink it.

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AnthonyStarks

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 6420

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 12:25 AM ET #101

Good luck.. same side for same reasons

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tjohnsont35

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2022

Posts: 364

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 12:27 AM ET #102

@JimmyGape

His record is 8-4. His logic is working.

9-4 or 8-5 is still a lot better than most player’s logic.

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wizard1183

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 727

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 12:44 AM ET #103

@JimmyGape

Obviously they did have business beating both teams cause here they are!

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dustmiester

Covers Rehab

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 5130

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 12:49 AM ET #104

I totally agree I think the Rams come out smoking and maybe they make adjustments at halftime ….but they came after Mahomes and Mahomes can’t throw under pressure he doesn’t really have a lot of people that throw two whereas the Rams they have a lot of weapons we shall see the 49ersBlew that game a lot of miss cues and they tried to run the fucking ball 20 times and got stopped every time Cincinnati will not be able to run pearls does not have a lot of weapons to throw to your gonna come after that fucking kid it was so I can probably five times but then again if the Bengals win it’ll be because the Rams fucked up we shall see

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dustmiester

Covers Rehab

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 5130

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 12:51 AM ET #105

One more thing yes cincy he beat the Raiders but they got lucky the Raiders should’ve won that game they beat Tennessee but Tennessee really isn’t shit all they have is a running game in Kansas City well look what happened to them in the Super Bowl they’re not all that either I do think the Rams win this easily because from my side everybody is taking the fucking Bengals

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saigon

All-Star

Joined: Apr, 2005

Posts: 11892

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 1:03 AM ET #106

an_cheers

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59782

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 8:15 AM ET #107

Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:

I agree with your logic The problem is logic doesnt always prevail Bengals had no business beating the Titans or the Chiefs yet here they are

Totally agree. No such thing as a sure thing in the NFL. Just look for edges, and bet them. Just another game.

peace_5

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.

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dyamarik

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 9387

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 9:40 AM ET #108

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik: Appreciate the thorough reply. I have been working (cant say where/what) on some predictive modeling, and my biggest challenge is trying to find efficient/effective ways to reduce overall variance driven by large number of inputs and assumptions. I sometimes get STD Dev so high, that the predictive capability is practically worthless, and so trying to knock down either the number of inputs, or rank them in importance, are a couple of ways to try and come up with a more useful prediction. From what I understand ("Basically, I have a dashboard where I can give values to importance of many factors. Things like turnovers, qbs, run game, pass game etc."), you use some type of judgement by weighing the importance of factors, and this appears to be a way of reducing variation in your system. I found it very interesting that higher Std Dev is your target, but after reading this a couple times, I understand that if you focused on only the low STD Dev games, it would lead to a single play or two that could cause your bet to go from winner to loser, but choosing higher Std Dev games, whereby your model predicts a skew to one side of the median or other, offers much less probability of those 1 or 2 plays biting you in the ass. And that last bit factors in to your staking I assume - a high STd Dev + skewed sims favoring one side of the median, probably gets a higher strength rating. Good to know that you don't purely rely on the model itself. That is where I always seem to struggle is that addt'l element of intangibles that you and others apply. Really appreciate your post. I have always wanted to develop a mathematical model (never have enough time, kids family, life etc.), but now that I am starting to have more, I am just gathering insights to benchmark ways to go about this. BOL to you Sir! That's what I have is a mathmatical model. I do exactly what you are saying. I weight different areas and give each area points, then just add up the points and that is a teams Power Rating. The way I determine which areas to use and how each areas gets weighted is by looking at which stats have the highest correlation to victory and the highest predictive value looking forward. The way I find this info is off other web sites. The stat with the highest correlation to victory is also the same stat with the highest predictive value so it's a no-brainer this stat carries the most weight. To determine how many points each stat gets I breakdown past strong SB winners and try to match the meterics to fit those teams. Then I branch-out from there to other strong playoff teams and try to find what point-level fits the majority of those teams for each stat I use . This is where it gets a little tricky, you need to continue adjusting each stats value to fit a number of teams and try to get the model to match each of those teams as closely as possible.

Claw - thx. Appreciate the insight on weighing factors and stats, and you sharing your thought process. peace_5

0

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik: Appreciate the thorough reply. I have been working (cant say where/what) on some predictive modeling, and my biggest challenge is trying to find efficient/effective ways to reduce overall variance driven by large number of inputs and assumptions. I sometimes get STD Dev so high, that the predictive capability is practically worthless, and so trying to knock down either the number of inputs, or rank them in importance, are a couple of ways to try and come up with a more useful prediction. From what I understand ("Basically, I have a dashboard where I can give values to importance of many factors. Things like turnovers, qbs, run game, pass game etc."), you use some type of judgement by weighing the importance of factors, and this appears to be a way of reducing variation in your system. I found it very interesting that higher Std Dev is your target, but after reading this a couple times, I understand that if you focused on only the low STD Dev games, it would lead to a single play or two that could cause your bet to go from winner to loser, but choosing higher Std Dev games, whereby your model predicts a skew to one side of the median or other, offers much less probability of those 1 or 2 plays biting you in the ass. And that last bit factors in to your staking I assume - a high STd Dev + skewed sims favoring one side of the median, probably gets a higher strength rating. Good to know that you don't purely rely on the model itself. That is where I always seem to struggle is that addt'l element of intangibles that you and others apply. Really appreciate your post. I have always wanted to develop a mathematical model (never have enough time, kids family, life etc.), but now that I am starting to have more, I am just gathering insights to benchmark ways to go about this. BOL to you Sir! That's what I have is a mathmatical model. I do exactly what you are saying. I weight different areas and give each area points, then just add up the points and that is a teams Power Rating. The way I determine which areas to use and how each areas gets weighted is by looking at which stats have the highest correlation to victory and the highest predictive value looking forward. The way I find this info is off other web sites. The stat with the highest correlation to victory is also the same stat with the highest predictive value so it's a no-brainer this stat carries the most weight. To determine how many points each stat gets I breakdown past strong SB winners and try to match the meterics to fit those teams. Then I branch-out from there to other strong playoff teams and try to find what point-level fits the majority of those teams for each stat I use . This is where it gets a little tricky, you need to continue adjusting each stats value to fit a number of teams and try to get the model to match each of those teams as closely as possible.

Claw - thx. Appreciate the insight on weighing factors and stats, and you sharing your thought process. peace_5

choiOi

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 5702

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 9:44 AM ET #109

Do not bet against Burrrrrr

an_blowhorn

0

vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59782

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 9:44 AM ET #110

Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik:

Appreciate the thorough reply. I have been working (cant say where/what) on some predictive modeling, and my biggest challenge is trying to find efficient/effective ways to reduce overall variance driven by large number of inputs and assumptions. I sometimes get STD Dev so high, that the predictive capability is practically worthless, and so trying to knock down either the number of inputs, or rank them in importance, are a couple of ways to try and come up with a more useful prediction. From what I understand ("Basically, I have a dashboard where I can give values to importance of many factors. Things like turnovers, qbs, run game, pass game etc."), you use some type of judgement by weighing the importance of factors, and this appears to be a way of reducing variation in your system. I found it very interesting that higher Std Dev is your target, but after reading this a couple times, I understand that if you focused on only the low STD Dev games, it would lead to a single play or two that could cause your bet to go from winner to loser, but choosing higher Std Dev games, whereby your model predicts a skew to one side of the median or other, offers much less probability of those 1 or 2 plays biting you in the ass. And that last bit factors in to your staking I assume - a high STd Dev + skewed sims favoring one side of the median, probably gets a higher strength rating. Good to know that you don't purely rely on the model itself. That is where I always seem to struggle is that addt'l element of intangibles that you and others apply. Really appreciate your post. I have always wanted to develop a mathematical model (never have enough time, kids family, life etc.), but now that I am starting to have more, I am just gathering insights to benchmark ways to go about this. BOL to you Sir!

I would be open to brainstorming new stuff with anyone here who wants to.

Obviously today is a bad day to start talking about this - but when the dust settles - I wouldnt mind talking with some here who are serious about this and potentially developing something.

peace_5

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.

0

Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik:

Appreciate the thorough reply. I have been working (cant say where/what) on some predictive modeling, and my biggest challenge is trying to find efficient/effective ways to reduce overall variance driven by large number of inputs and assumptions. I sometimes get STD Dev so high, that the predictive capability is practically worthless, and so trying to knock down either the number of inputs, or rank them in importance, are a couple of ways to try and come up with a more useful prediction. From what I understand ("Basically, I have a dashboard where I can give values to importance of many factors. Things like turnovers, qbs, run game, pass game etc."), you use some type of judgement by weighing the importance of factors, and this appears to be a way of reducing variation in your system. I found it very interesting that higher Std Dev is your target, but after reading this a couple times, I understand that if you focused on only the low STD Dev games, it would lead to a single play or two that could cause your bet to go from winner to loser, but choosing higher Std Dev games, whereby your model predicts a skew to one side of the median or other, offers much less probability of those 1 or 2 plays biting you in the ass. And that last bit factors in to your staking I assume - a high STd Dev + skewed sims favoring one side of the median, probably gets a higher strength rating. Good to know that you don't purely rely on the model itself. That is where I always seem to struggle is that addt'l element of intangibles that you and others apply. Really appreciate your post. I have always wanted to develop a mathematical model (never have enough time, kids family, life etc.), but now that I am starting to have more, I am just gathering insights to benchmark ways to go about this. BOL to you Sir!

I would be open to brainstorming new stuff with anyone here who wants to.

Obviously today is a bad day to start talking about this - but when the dust settles - I wouldnt mind talking with some here who are serious about this and potentially developing something.

peace_5

unplucked_gem

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2018

Posts: 2450

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 9:53 AM ET #111

@vanzack

100% - just another game. Same money on this as on Bundesliga today. Bol today

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59782

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 9:55 AM ET #112

Quote Originally Posted by unplucked_gem:

@vanzack 100% - just another game. Same money on this as on Bundesliga today. Bol today

I have a nice +475 ticket on Wolves right now up 2-0 at HT.

Betis +115 coming up in 20 mins.

I have been killing it on European Football. Too bad only 1 left in NFL.

peace_5

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.

0

vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59782

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 10:32 AM ET #113

Betis 1-0

Wolves 2-0

an_popcorn

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.

0

shababa

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 137

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 11:24 AM ET #114

@vanzack

ALWAYS ENJOY READING YOUR THREADS... LAST COUPLE GAMES BEEN AGAINST YA UNFORTUNATELY BUT TODAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THROW SEASON STATS OUT THE WINDOW TO CAP THIS GAME. LOVE JOE BURROW (JUST LIKE EVERYONE ELSE) AND THE CINDERELLA STORY BUT THE TRAIN STOPS HERE. I WILL TAKE THE BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER, BEST WR, AND STAFFORD TODAY OVER THE YOUNGSTERS FROM CINCY GOOD LUCK TODAY AND I SEE A RAMS DD WIN ANY WAY I DICE IT!!!!!!!!!

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TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 54468

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 11:31 AM ET #115

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik: Appreciate the thorough reply. I have been working (cant say where/what) on some predictive modeling, and my biggest challenge is trying to find efficient/effective ways to reduce overall variance driven by large number of inputs and assumptions. I sometimes get STD Dev so high, that the predictive capability is practically worthless, and so trying to knock down either the number of inputs, or rank them in importance, are a couple of ways to try and come up with a more useful prediction. From what I understand ("Basically, I have a dashboard where I can give values to importance of many factors. Things like turnovers, qbs, run game, pass game etc."), you use some type of judgement by weighing the importance of factors, and this appears to be a way of reducing variation in your system. I found it very interesting that higher Std Dev is your target, but after reading this a couple times, I understand that if you focused on only the low STD Dev games, it would lead to a single play or two that could cause your bet to go from winner to loser, but choosing higher Std Dev games, whereby your model predicts a skew to one side of the median or other, offers much less probability of those 1 or 2 plays biting you in the ass. And that last bit factors in to your staking I assume - a high STd Dev + skewed sims favoring one side of the median, probably gets a higher strength rating. Good to know that you don't purely rely on the model itself. That is where I always seem to struggle is that addt'l element of intangibles that you and others apply. Really appreciate your post. I have always wanted to develop a mathematical model (never have enough time, kids family, life etc.), but now that I am starting to have more, I am just gathering insights to benchmark ways to go about this. BOL to you Sir! I would be open to brainstorming new stuff with anyone here who wants to. Obviously today is a bad day to start talking about this - but when the dust settles - I wouldnt mind talking with some here who are serious about this and potentially developing something.

If you need the TRAIN to tweak the model with outside, non math eye.....lemme know. an_roll_laugh

The intangibles are what often escapes most models, as the numbers dont lie....but that doesnt mean they always tell the truth. an_light

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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik: Appreciate the thorough reply. I have been working (cant say where/what) on some predictive modeling, and my biggest challenge is trying to find efficient/effective ways to reduce overall variance driven by large number of inputs and assumptions. I sometimes get STD Dev so high, that the predictive capability is practically worthless, and so trying to knock down either the number of inputs, or rank them in importance, are a couple of ways to try and come up with a more useful prediction. From what I understand ("Basically, I have a dashboard where I can give values to importance of many factors. Things like turnovers, qbs, run game, pass game etc."), you use some type of judgement by weighing the importance of factors, and this appears to be a way of reducing variation in your system. I found it very interesting that higher Std Dev is your target, but after reading this a couple times, I understand that if you focused on only the low STD Dev games, it would lead to a single play or two that could cause your bet to go from winner to loser, but choosing higher Std Dev games, whereby your model predicts a skew to one side of the median or other, offers much less probability of those 1 or 2 plays biting you in the ass. And that last bit factors in to your staking I assume - a high STd Dev + skewed sims favoring one side of the median, probably gets a higher strength rating. Good to know that you don't purely rely on the model itself. That is where I always seem to struggle is that addt'l element of intangibles that you and others apply. Really appreciate your post. I have always wanted to develop a mathematical model (never have enough time, kids family, life etc.), but now that I am starting to have more, I am just gathering insights to benchmark ways to go about this. BOL to you Sir! I would be open to brainstorming new stuff with anyone here who wants to. Obviously today is a bad day to start talking about this - but when the dust settles - I wouldnt mind talking with some here who are serious about this and potentially developing something.

If you need the TRAIN to tweak the model with outside, non math eye.....lemme know. an_roll_laugh

The intangibles are what often escapes most models, as the numbers dont lie....but that doesnt mean they always tell the truth. an_light

ReplayReelGold

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2020

Posts: 424

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 11:36 AM ET #116

@PepeFrog

But, those run plays must be effective. Nixon has not been good the last 5 weeks and now he goes up against another good defense. Hmmm

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DialedCaper7

Captain

Joined: Jun, 2017

Posts: 6311

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 11:36 AM ET #117

Easy fade

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DoubleUp4Life

Banned

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 66896

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 11:42 AM ET #118

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by unplucked_gem: @vanzack 100% - just another game. Same money on this as on Bundesliga today. Bol today I have a nice +475 ticket on Wolves right now up 2-0 at HT. Betis +115 coming up in 20 mins. I have been killing it on European Football. Too bad only 1 left in NFL.

I would love to see Wolves finish top 10 in the table....

Thankfully they finally got rid of Adama , dude couldn't kick a ball in the ocean if he was on a floating boat ..

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

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Top5DeadorAlive

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2022

Posts: 3

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 11:42 AM ET #119

clover

0

Top5DeadorAlive

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2022

Posts: 3

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 11:57 AM ET #120

I totally agree. The Rams have 4 defenders with a PFF grade of 72 or better. Ramsey doesn’t have to stick to Chase all game. He’ll most likely be best on one side of the field or defending against slot receivers where he can be in the mix more often. Rams have a solid defensive front. Most teams have doubled Donald and if that is implemented into the Bengals game plan then it will definitely open things up for the other 5 solid players they have. The Bengals wanna get rid of the ball quick so expect the Rams to force Burrow to go over the top. If Burrow throws deep he will need to buy time. Buying time is something that offensive line doesn’t give him. This game won’t be as close as some Bengals backers think and the Bengals are definitely not winning this game. The Bengals have one of the worst secondary’s and with Henderson back in the fold for the Rams it gets worse as his ability to catch the pass out of the backfield will create more havoc.

BOL and nice write up.

peace_5

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59782

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 12:02 PM ET #121

Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by unplucked_gem: @vanzack 100% - just another game. Same money on this as on Bundesliga today. Bol today I have a nice +475 ticket on Wolves right now up 2-0 at HT. Betis +115 coming up in 20 mins. I have been killing it on European Football. Too bad only 1 left in NFL. I would love to see Wolves finish top 10 in the table.... Thankfully they finally got rid of Adama , dude couldn't kick a ball in the ocean if he was on a floating boat ..

Best dribbler in the world though. Dangerous as hell.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.

0

Supersharpone

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2016

Posts: 4036

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 12:06 PM ET #122

So all of a sudden our resident expert becomes a phd data scientist with this nonsense talk about standard deviations and percentages that he knows no one on covers would know or - dare i say - challenge him on.

Bengals to the bank. Less talk, more action bud.

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Supersharpone

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2016

Posts: 4036

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 12:07 PM ET #123

Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont35:

@JimmyGape His record is 8-4. His logic is working. 9-4 or 8-5 is still a lot better than most player’s logic.

and what’s Don Juan’s record?

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59782

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 12:08 PM ET #124

Quote Originally Posted by Supersharpone:

So all of a sudden our resident expert becomes a phd data scientist with this nonsense talk about standard deviations and percentages that he knows no one on covers would know or - dare i say - challenge him on. Bengals to the bank. Less talk, more action bud.

Challenge me.

an_popcorn

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.

0

easymoney8474

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 1116

Posted: Feb. 13, 2022 - 12:20 PM ET #125

Brandon Lang on the Rams

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Superbowl Rams vs Bengals. Dont overthink it.

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