suuma's NFL Week Eleven

50-33 ATS (60.2%) +17.4u
Avg line: -108

It's a marathon, not a sprint. Bet accordingly. Final whistle is 2/5/17.


Jaguars / Lions Over 47 -110

When I first looked at the totals, I couldn't believe this total is below 50. Many people wonder why Matt Stafford has been killing it since the new OC took over. It's simple: he handcuffed Stafford by letting him only make certain throws and it's working. More than 50% of his passing yards have been gained after the catch by his receivers. Short passes & screens - Lions execute it well and Stafford doesn't have to hold to ball too long or to throw into tight windows. With the bye week to prepare, I expect them to put together a few good drives against the Jags at home. The Lions are also in a lookahead-spot to Thursday and Mr. garbage time Blake Bortles should be able to put up points against one of the worst Ds in the league. Seeing a 31-24 type of game.

Steelers / Browns Over 48 or better

Early sharp money is on the Under, moving the total from 49.5 to 48.5. I don't know what they see. The Steelers should put up 30+ points easily in this one and the Browns are capable of putting up points against a really bad Steelers defense who just lost Cameron Heyward for the season. Seeing a 34-23 type of game.

Minnesota Vikings PK -105

I give the Vikes a HFA of 4 points in their new stadium, so this line says the Cardinals would lay atleast 3.5 on a neutral field. That's classic public perception vs. reality like PHI vs ATL was. The Cards have played 6 of their 9 games at home and they managed to get 4 wins vs teams with a combined record of 9-28. Only 2 of their 9 opponents have a winning record. They even lost vs. two teams with a replacement level QB. The Niners played a completely competitiv game at Arizona and could have won if for instance the refs don't call a fumble that never was. Carson Palmer has lost two steps, he can't run this offense. So why are the Cardinals just a PK at Minnesota and the public is on them at 61%? The Vikes lost their last four games but three of them were on the road and they only lost to Detroit because of Blair Walsh's missed PAT. He is released by now. Carson Palmer is a statue and he can't make the throws this system requires. Pair that with pressure and you have the perfect recipe against him. The Vikes DL vs ARI's OL is the key matchup in this game and will guide the Vikes to a victory. Since Turner is gone, the play-calling got an upgrade. Bradford is releasing the ball quicker and they took away all the 7 step drops mostly. They won't light the Cards up, but they should limit mistakes to win the turnover battle. I think Bradford is going to move the ball better than Palmer this Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals ATS

Sharps, Pros, public - it doesn't matter. They all have been steaming the Bills since the opener (+4.5) and the Bengals are soon to be available at -2.5 when I will bite. I need one more loss to hit my Under 9.5 season total on the Bengals, but I don't see it happening this week. There were two major reasons for me to take the Under: 1) The roster was massively downgraded from 2015, especially early in the season 2) Bengals have a tough schedule. Cincy has played just three true home games this season, losing one game to the Broncos. They have lost 5 games and had a tie so far. Of those 6 opponents, 5 are currently sitting in the playoffs and the other one are the Steelers which was on the road. @PIT, @DAL, @NE, @NYG, @WSH (London), vs DEN. Now they are back at home where they have a significant advantage. The Bills are 4-5 but they also played a fairly easy schedule. I think they are vastly overrated. Their defense sucks and they played the 3rd-easiest schedule in DVOA. Bengals are going to move the ball easily on them, Tyler Eifert should have a big game. The Bills don't have the passing game to make a mediocre Bengals secondary pay. Bengals should roll at home.


Indianapolis Colts -3 -110 (2u)

The Titans - a younger and more inexperienced team - just put a beating on the Packers by scoring 47 points at home. The media landscape is hyping them, rooting for apologies towards Mike Mularkey. Now they travel to Indianapolis to play a Colts team off their bye week desperate for a win. If the Colts drop this game, the Titans and Texans both will have atleast 6 wins, Colts 4. Does the NFL want a division race between Assweiler and the Titans? Or do they want their darling Andrew Luck in it? I truly expect the NFL wanting to have Andrew Luck in the playoffs, so I wouldn't be shocked to see some penalty flags going for Indy in crucial situations if the score is tight. The Colts get some important players healthy just like Jack Mewhort, Henry Anderson and Kendall Langford. Henry Anderson is such an exciting player to watch and important against the run. With Patrick Peterson and Vontae Davis, the Colts can man up the Titans CBs to stack the box. Colts will go all in from start to finish and I expect them to put up a lot of points on their divisional rival.


Los Angeles Rams ATS

Another public perception vs reality game in my opinion. The Dolphins come into this game red hot off a 4-game win-streak. 3 of those games were at home. They beat a bad Steelers road team, were losing in the 4th quarter to a decimated Bills team, almost lost vs. the mighty Jets (needed a kickoff return TD) and only won at San Diego because Rivers had his annual collapse with 4 picks in the 4th quarter. Rivers threw 4 4th quarter picks and the Chargers still had a lead despite Tannehill making the game of his season. The Dolphins needed a return for 6 to put this game on ice. The Rams went 1-3 in their last 4 games but here is the deal: they outgained each of their opponent by total yards and yards per play. The only difference in the three losses was Case Keenum. Now the Rams finally put in the No. 1 pick - a guy with much more potential than Case Keenum who had half a year to learn the pro game. And now the markets are telling me that Jared Goff is actually a downgrade from Case f*cking Keenum? He can NOT be worse than Case Keenum, especially not vs. a bad Miami defense. Stack the box? Okay, I have no doubt in my mind that Goff can make Austin, Britt, Cooper and Quick look good vs. this Miami secondary off quick shots out of the shotgun. The Rams have a GOOD defense.
This DL is feasting and the coverage is very good. If they would just stop doing crazy things like dropping Brockers into a hook zone on a 3men rush. They give up a big play here and there because of such bullshiit. This is the 7th-best scoring defense (17.4 PPG). The Steelers, Bills, Jets and Chargers all rank between 14 and 27. The Dolphins will have a hard time running and moving the ball in general on the Rams. The Rams at home allow 15 PPG,  and that's inflated by a short offensive Bills TD off a Jeff Fisher fake punt try. Also think about the storyline: "Jared Goff leads Rams to victory in his first NFL start". I am waiting to see if the line gets pushed more into plus money.

Other leans:

Panthers -3 or better and over: This line was CAR -3 in the first game AT New Orleans which made it -9 at home. The game was very close. Now -3 is a 6pt-swing in a divisional revenge spot at home on TNF. Kalil comes back which is huge and helps the CAR rushing attack vs. a weak NO defense. Seeing a shootout with the winner coming from Charlotte.

Ravens +7 or better: Don't wanna get in front of the Boys train, but the Ravens can stop the run and the Cowboys are sandwiched between that big win at Pittsburgh and a Thanksgiving game vs. Washington.

Eagles +7 or better: Eagles don't get blown out with that defense. Seahawks will be forced to punt a lot because the Eagles DL is a terrible mismatch. Seeing a close Hawks win.

Who are the Giants to lay 7.5 pts to anyone?

Where do you check where the sharp money is going?

Always a great read  

Do you post your picks in order of confidence because I see you have the (2u) pick of the Colts? Is that the one you feel most strongly about?

Glad to see we're on the same side of every bet I've locked in! Agree with all the picks this week. Ravens haven't lost a game by more than one score this year. Only did it twice last year. Colts own the Titans, Rams have value. Only thing I disagree on is the Eagles lean. It's hard to feel good about a rookie heading into seattle. I agree the eagles defense is legit, but is there any defense for a healthy russ wilson? Procise looked spectacular. We'll see. BOL 

Line is a bit too high IMO, agree. Will probably take them in a teaser, because I don't see Chicago winning. Team is in complete disarray, they have completely given up on Cutler.

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Is this when dak toots his own horn and pays the price for it? The funniest thing would be if Ravens cover ATS but don't win SU and then wash beats Dallas on thanksgiving after losing to Green Bay Sunday night.

No real feel for the total in Minny.

I thought the same about the Jaguars back in February. After watching some games and studying Bortles they ended up pretty low in my ranking. Bortles is one of the worst starting QBs in the league. Like someone said "Bortles isn't a QB. He can't play the position". He is Mr garbage time, they should put up some points at Detroit. Even Case Keenum lit them up.

Completely agree on Romo. IMO he is one of the greatest QBs in the league. People just judge him off a team record and playoff success.

1u is standard. I go bigger on strong plays, 1.5u or 2u.

The Ravens are a very well-coached team. I hope that Yanda will be back and the line jumps to 7.5 at some point.

I love this kid Prosise. I really hoped he would join the Eagles because he fits Pederson's style with his versatility. Now the Seahawks start using him the right way. The Hawks receiving corps is SCARY and Russell Wilson feeling more comfortable on his legs every week. I just doubt they are going to move the ball as easy as they did at New England, because this Eagles defense is for real. They shut down the Falcons almost completely. 7 just feels a bit too high IMO when looking at the matchup.

BOL this week!

Well, I am not the media and not a fan and I think we just agree to disagree on that one. Just remember 2014 when he had the most important 4th down in his career. He delivered a money ball to Dez, but the refs overturned the catch. Cowboys would have gone to Seattle where they already won in dominant fashion during the regular.

The game is still played by 22 players and coaches. I remember the playoff game vs the Vikes (2009?) when he had an abysmal offensive line and he wasnt given ANY chance in that game.

2014 was the first time he had a great offense surrounding him. Since 2014 he is 16-5 as a starter and I would guess they scored around 27 PPG when he played. As a fan of the game I just wish that they put him on a playoff caliber team.

Agree. Prosise looks awesome, Rawls comes back and they promoted rookie Pope from the practice squad. No need to pay money for Christine Michael.

As bad as Cousins is, this offense makes him look good in many games by baiting him out. We will definitely get an inflated line if that scenario comes through

Thanks again for the terrific write-up, pal. Very insightful. I greatly appreciate the time and effort you put into sharing your analysis with us. Very grateful for the $$$ you've earned me this year.

Titans and Colts is the most important game in the NFL this week.