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suuma's NFL Week Eleven

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jroc1247

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 8138

Posted: Nov. 16, 2016 - 4:48 PM ET #26

Love em all! Keep it up bro.

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sicknesscity

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 2157

Posted: Nov. 16, 2016 - 4:59 PM ET #27

I look at the Titans/Colts game and I see it more as one of perception. It may not really matter what the NFL wants unless they flag the Titans a ridiculous number of times. I believe that they've been asking Luck to do a lot with not enough pieces around him to help. They really have not drafted well and their run defense is probably going to have trouble stopping Murray, which should lend to the Titans being able to sustain enough drives. I'd just think it's a given for Murray but I could be wrong. The Titans have actually shown real improvement and might win the game.

Of course, you've been on fire lately so I'm not really trying to be a contrarian. Just offering my viewpoint.

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Dogjimbo

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 17423

Posted: Nov. 16, 2016 - 7:15 PM ET #28

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TAYLORSTEVENS

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2016

Posts: 3

Posted: Nov. 16, 2016 - 7:21 PM ET #29

Great breakdowns.. Very insightful.. thanks for all the contributions suuma

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lakers9

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 411

Posted: Nov. 16, 2016 - 7:46 PM ET #30

Love and appreciate that you take the time to write up your thoughts every week

I would wait on that over in Cleveland, the weather is suppose to deteriorate rapidly throughout the day on Sunday with a combination of rain/wind and wet snow. That total is most likely gonna drop. I live smack dab in the heart of Buffalo Bills country, and I LOVE Cincy on Sunday. The Bills played their butts off in Seattle, to ultimately come up short, then had a week off to think about it. The loss of Eric Wood is massive, he's been a rock on the line(50+ straight starts at center). I think the game in Seattle was the last stand for the buffalo Bills, the rails are coming off......

Good luck this week!!

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lakers9

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 411

Posted: Nov. 16, 2016 - 7:47 PM ET #31

Love and appreciate that you take the time to write up your thoughts every week

I would wait on that over in Cleveland, the weather is suppose to deteriorate rapidly throughout the day on Sunday with a combination of rain/wind and wet snow. That total is most likely gonna drop. I live smack dab in the heart of Buffalo Bills country, and I LOVE Cincy on Sunday. The Bills played their butts off in Seattle, to ultimately come up short, then had a week off to think about it. The loss of Eric Wood is massive, he's been a rock on the line(50+ straight starts at center). I think the game in Seattle was the last stand for the buffalo Bills, the rails are coming off......

Good luck this week!!

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porcelainfist

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 3012

Posted: Nov. 16, 2016 - 8:38 PM ET #32

A note on our ongoing conversation:

At +7, it is either the Ravens or nothing for me this week.

I have to vet out a couple of things, but we are in agreeance here. The lines makers have been getting crushed on Dallas money, and they are sick of it. They don't want buy back, they want people to take Dallas -7, as the Westgate has been stuck on -7 shaded with -120 juice for some time. They are pretty confident that the line is right.

Having taken the Cowboys 7 times, one thing was a constant in every one of those match ups: they were either getting points(+1.5 v. Giants, +4.5 v. Packers, +2.5 . Steelers) of not laying enough points for the situation (49ers -2.5, Bears without Cutler Mcphee or Goldman -7.5, PK v. Bengals).

The only game where I previously believed they would falter and then changed my mind was the game versus Philadelphia, and the reason I didn't end up following through with taking Philly is the line (-4.5) was not enough to make up for what I believed would be the difference maker in the contest: Carson Wentz was going to be playing a divisional rival in Primetime for the first time in front of 120,000 people.

This game in particular, we are seeing a line that should probably be Dallas -4 go all the way to Dallas -7. I think the Ravens are a better Defense than Philadelphia. I definitely think that Flacco has a chance to do more than Wentz. This has to do with being a veteran who has seen it before.

I think the Romo stuff will effect the team. In general, I think the Cowboys are making a mistake by not going back to Romo, and the next two games in particular are going to be tough, firstly we have the Ravens (best Defense they have seen yet) then we have the Red Hot Redskins coming to town.

AND the Defense is getting beaten up. When Leon McFadden is playing one on one with Antonio Brown at the end of the game, you are having trouble in the secondary. They gave up their first hundred yard receiver this week, and they gave up their first >23 point game to any opponent.

I'm still rather worried that the Ravens will lay another egg on Offense, as they have done throughout the year, and that could keep me away (and likely will), but I figured you might be relieved to hear that there is no way I would take the Cowboys this week.

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A note on our ongoing conversation:

At +7, it is either the Ravens or nothing for me this week.

I have to vet out a couple of things, but we are in agreeance here. The lines makers have been getting crushed on Dallas money, and they are sick of it. They don't want buy back, they want people to take Dallas -7, as the Westgate has been stuck on -7 shaded with -120 juice for some time. They are pretty confident that the line is right.

Having taken the Cowboys 7 times, one thing was a constant in every one of those match ups: they were either getting points(+1.5 v. Giants, +4.5 v. Packers, +2.5 . Steelers) of not laying enough points for the situation (49ers -2.5, Bears without Cutler Mcphee or Goldman -7.5, PK v. Bengals).

The only game where I previously believed they would falter and then changed my mind was the game versus Philadelphia, and the reason I didn't end up following through with taking Philly is the line (-4.5) was not enough to make up for what I believed would be the difference maker in the contest: Carson Wentz was going to be playing a divisional rival in Primetime for the first time in front of 120,000 people.

This game in particular, we are seeing a line that should probably be Dallas -4 go all the way to Dallas -7. I think the Ravens are a better Defense than Philadelphia. I definitely think that Flacco has a chance to do more than Wentz. This has to do with being a veteran who has seen it before.

I think the Romo stuff will effect the team. In general, I think the Cowboys are making a mistake by not going back to Romo, and the next two games in particular are going to be tough, firstly we have the Ravens (best Defense they have seen yet) then we have the Red Hot Redskins coming to town.

AND the Defense is getting beaten up. When Leon McFadden is playing one on one with Antonio Brown at the end of the game, you are having trouble in the secondary. They gave up their first hundred yard receiver this week, and they gave up their first >23 point game to any opponent.

I'm still rather worried that the Ravens will lay another egg on Offense, as they have done throughout the year, and that could keep me away (and likely will), but I figured you might be relieved to hear that there is no way I would take the Cowboys this week.

psht

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2016

Posts: 19

Posted: Nov. 16, 2016 - 9:03 PM ET #33

On Pittsburgh, the O/U move is probably more due to the 20+mph winds and chance of rain/snow in Cleveland on Sunday.

Careful there.

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Dbreezyy

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2016

Posts: 347

Posted: Nov. 16, 2016 - 10:04 PM ET #34

Panthers a play or just lean for now?

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richwins81

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 1299

Posted: Nov. 16, 2016 - 11:43 PM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Line is a bit too high IMO, agree. Will probably take them in a teaser, because I don't see Chicago winning. Team is in complete disarray, they have completely given up on Cutler.

SUUMA - you are a true professional. Thanks for all you do! Do you like Indy just to win SU more or the Giants?

Thanks!

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lmb4321

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 9120

Posted: Nov. 17, 2016 - 2:01 AM ET #36

Suuma....like the Rams too......thinking the Under Rams/Dolphins might be a great pick also...Rams are going to give Goff a conservative play list and run the ball, mix in play action and let the Defense keep the game close....

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suuma

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 4455

Posted: Nov. 17, 2016 - 2:29 AM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by ChickPea387:

Thanks again for the terrific write-up, pal. Very insightful. I greatly appreciate the time and effort you put into sharing your analysis with us. Very grateful for the $$$ you've earned me this year.

Thanks man, good feeling when others profit as well!

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suuma

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 4455

Posted: Nov. 17, 2016 - 2:31 AM ET #38

Quote Originally Posted by KcChief1957:

Great work suuma! (as always) Any feel on the KC-Tampa game? As a life long Chiefs fan (and I will again fly in for the game on Sunday) the line feels a bit valued to Tampa here...Peters, Hali, Houston and Howard not practicing today.....

Thoughts?

Aside from the injuries, it feels like the Bucs crush bad teams and get crushed by good teams. Don't wanna get involved in that game to be honest. Have fun at the game!

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dcowboys

Captain

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 5252

Posted: Nov. 17, 2016 - 2:41 AM ET #39

Great stuff Suuma as always

. Porcelainfist, I agree this line is inflated by a point or 2 but I'm not ready to get off the train yet ;) After breaking this game down I just don't believe Bmore's O can score enough points to hang with ours. Turnovers are the only way the ravens stay within 7 imo. GL

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suuma

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 4455

Posted: Nov. 17, 2016 - 2:42 AM ET #40

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Titans and Colts is the most important game in the NFL this week.

I hope you are wrong about the refs, that would be a shame. The Colts aren't good. Luck's DYAR is well below average. I don't know how they are getting any wins...but like you said the league wants them in maybe.

GL this week

The Colts have had the worst injury LUCK of all teams I would guess. This week is the first time they have their whole offense healthy. In the first game at Tennessee, Luck was throwing passes to Chester Rogers, Devin Street and Eric Swoope. And they still scored 27 offensive points. This week with a healthy offense, they should finally break out. The biggest reasoning of my pick is the offense being capable to score 35+ this week.

GL to you as well Sac!

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suuma

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 4455

Posted: Nov. 17, 2016 - 2:46 AM ET #41

Quote Originally Posted by sicknesscity:

I look at the Titans/Colts game and I see it more as one of perception. It may not really matter what the NFL wants unless they flag the Titans a ridiculous number of times. I believe that they've been asking Luck to do a lot with not enough pieces around him to help. They really have not drafted well and their run defense is probably going to have trouble stopping Murray, which should lend to the Titans being able to sustain enough drives. I'd just think it's a given for Murray but I could be wrong. The Titans have actually shown real improvement and might win the game.

Of course, you've been on fire lately so I'm not really trying to be a contrarian. Just offering my viewpoint.

I think we have to think contrarian every time to get different views on all the things in life, not just a bet.

Like I said above, this is the first time this season he is going to have the whole offense healthy.

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suuma

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 4455

Posted: Nov. 17, 2016 - 2:52 AM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by lakers9:

Love and appreciate that you take the time to write up your thoughts every week

I would wait on that over in Cleveland, the weather is suppose to deteriorate rapidly throughout the day on Sunday with a combination of rain/wind and wet snow. That total is most likely gonna drop. I live smack dab in the heart of Buffalo Bills country, and I LOVE Cincy on Sunday. The Bills played their butts off in Seattle, to ultimately come up short, then had a week off to think about it. The loss of Eric Wood is massive, he's been a rock on the line(50+ straight starts at center). I think the game in Seattle was the last stand for the buffalo Bills, the rails are coming off......

Good luck this week!!

Yeah seen that this morning - around 25 mph of winds. Under already down to 47.5. Going to wait for a better line.

The loss of Eric Woods is huge, agree.

BOL this week!

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suuma

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 4455

Posted: Nov. 17, 2016 - 3:03 AM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

A note on our ongoing conversation:

At +7, it is either the Ravens or nothing for me this week.

I have to vet out a couple of things, but we are in agreeance here. The lines makers have been getting crushed on Dallas money, and they are sick of it. They don't want buy back, they want people to take Dallas -7, as the Westgate has been stuck on -7 shaded with -120 juice for some time. They are pretty confident that the line is right.

Having taken the Cowboys 7 times, one thing was a constant in every one of those match ups: they were either getting points(+1.5 v. Giants, +4.5 v. Packers, +2.5 . Steelers) of not laying enough points for the situation (49ers -2.5, Bears without Cutler Mcphee or Goldman -7.5, PK v. Bengals).

The only game where I previously believed they would falter and then changed my mind was the game versus Philadelphia, and the reason I didn't end up following through with taking Philly is the line (-4.5) was not enough to make up for what I believed would be the difference maker in the contest: Carson Wentz was going to be playing a divisional rival in Primetime for the first time in front of 120,000 people.

This game in particular, we are seeing a line that should probably be Dallas -4 go all the way to Dallas -7. I think the Ravens are a better Defense than Philadelphia. I definitely think that Flacco has a chance to do more than Wentz. This has to do with being a veteran who has seen it before.

I think the Romo stuff will effect the team. In general, I think the Cowboys are making a mistake by not going back to Romo, and the next two games in particular are going to be tough, firstly we have the Ravens (best Defense they have seen yet) then we have the Red Hot Redskins coming to town.

AND the Defense is getting beaten up. When Leon McFadden is playing one on one with Antonio Brown at the end of the game, you are having trouble in the secondary. They gave up their first hundred yard receiver this week, and they gave up their first >23 point game to any opponent.

I'm still rather worried that the Ravens will lay another egg on Offense, as they have done throughout the year, and that could keep me away (and likely will), but I figured you might be relieved to hear that there is no way I would take the Cowboys this week.

Agree on almost everything, Porc. Ravens offense is what scares me a bit, but then again at 7 or 7.5 I still feel fine with a play.

Yanda, Dumervil and Correa back at practice. Correa adds some speed to the front seven. Excited about the matchup.