suuma's NFL week five «» write-ups inside

Quote Originally Posted by JBone_Texas:

Just trying to educate people, take it or leave it.In theory it would be ideal in a laboratory environment for the bookmaker to get equal 50/50 action on the games.In reality though it doesn't work this way and you cannot balance the action even with line moves.  Every week there are games that are out of balance, perhaps as high as 4 to 1 money on a side.But back to the theory, the point spread is designed to make the teams even or a 50/50 proposition correct?  So tell me how many of us on here would gladly take points and a +400 ML on an NFL team?This combined with the fact that money won returns and is churned over and over against these odds is how they make money.And there is no way to get around the risk, it is the business after all.  If a book took didn't want the risk they would buyout, place a bet with another book to offload the risk.  They don't do this, because they know that the odds I mentioned are in their favor and over time it will be profitable (sure they have bad weeks but the money comes back). You are correct they are not trying to fool anyone with the lines nor predict the final score, they are simply trying to get the values correct for the marketplace and the marketplace will determine the balance.  But they are trying to be sharp with the numbers and not get out of line with other books.  If they don't then sharper bettors will recognize the value and that 4 to 1 with the points game get's eaten into by sharp players to a 2 to 1.Perhaps I'm not explaining it as well as it could be but I'm quite certain that books are not getting 50/50 action on all games and nor are they offloading risk.  If you offloaded your risk to get every game to 50/50 you would go broke as a bookmaker, guaranteed.