Posted:
#1
16-13 YTD
2014: 83-51 (62%)
5-1 on big plays
Classes were cancelled, so I've got some time today. Feel free to discuss!
Kansas City Chiefs -8.75 -110 BIG PLAY
-8.75 because I locked it in at -9 and -8.5. This is a terrible spot for the Bears and a phenomenal spot for the Chiefs. The Bears got shut out by the Seahawks and then redeemed themselves with a last-minute FG at home against the Raiders who were in a look-ahead spot before playing the division kings at home. The Bears are in a major letdown spot here. Road underdogs of more than a TD (implicating it's a bad team) after a win off a shutout loss (21+) are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS, losing by an average of 20.14 PPG since 1989. The Chiefs have lost three consecutive games against teams who have a combined record of 12-0. Andy Reid is 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS after three consecutive losses. This exact same spot - Bears in that letdown/redeemed spot and the Chiefs off three losses occured in 2014 as well. The Chiefs played the Raiders at home after three consecutive losses when the Raiders were off a win at San Fran after a shutout loss to St. Louis. The Chiefs steamrolled the Raiders 31-13 and if not for a garbage time TD, the Chiefs would have won 31-6.
The Bears team is not in a good shape. They are banged up with injuries and the club is thinking about trading key players to build up for the future. Alshon Jeffery is still limited, he just got two full practices since the beginning of the season. "Hopeful to return soon" doesn't sound like he will lineup this week. Eddie Royal did not practice this week. Offensive linemen Kyle Long and Jermon Bushrod are banged up, Bushrod didnt practice and Long is limited. Jay Cutler said he is not 100% ready for this week but wants to play. Do you know what the Chiefs defense will do with that offense at home? It's gonna be a long long day for Jay Cutler and friends. Don't measure the Chiefs defense for their numbers which got highly deflated by road games at Green Bay and Cincinnati. They played phenomenal against Peyton Manning but the Packers at home and the Bengals will make a lot of defenses look sloppy this year, especially at home.
The Bears defense is terrible and banged up. Antrel Rolle is 99% not playing, so the Bears will probably let two rookies start at safety along with the poor Kyle Fuller and either the banged up Alan Ball or the banged up nickle Sherrick McManis? Their front seven is the better unit of that defense but even they are a little banged up with Will Sutton, Shea McClellin and Pernell McPhee limited in practice. They are not going to prevent the Chiefs from scoring. The Chiefs OL looks below-average in pass-blocking but has been excelling in run-blocking which leads the way to their offensive style. The Bengals safeties were struggling defending some crossing routes last week against the speed of Jeremy Maclin and those rookie safeties of Chicago will struggle as well. The Chiefs have been averaging 23.25 offensive PPG against teams with a combined record of 13-3 so it's not far from reality to expect a peak here on Sunday in a phenomenal spot at home. Jay Cutler will get pressured a lot and 1 or 2 INTs won't surprise me. The Bears have that kind of games in which you just want to head back home to get healthy and prepare for a weaker opponent(Lions). Chiefs are rolling here.
Cincinnati Bengals -3 -104
4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS. There is the dreamcase scenario in which you just ride a team all season long and make a shitload of money. This dream rarely becomes reality but unless the oddsmakers don't set the lines for this team higher, I have to bite. I've said it in my Futures thread and every week again: this is one of the best, at this point the best overall Football team in the league. I will look stupid if they lose this game but I believe this line is a joke and should be closer to -7. There is a crazy stat surrounding us this week: with Chancellor, the Seahawks have not allowed a TD in 18 consecutive quarters. WOW!!! How was that possible against Colin Crapernick, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill, Jimmy Clausen and Matthew Stafford without an OL and the bat rule? They are magicians.
The Bengals are the Cowboys of 2014 with a better defense. They will score their 21-35 points in every game so you need to keep their offense sidelined and try to put points on the board. How are the Seahawks going to do that with this OL? This is the worst offensive line of the NFL and I still can't believe what they thought by not improving this unit. They gave up Max Unger and a first rounder for Jimmy Graham. Porcelainfist and I said it back in June: that trade was genius by the Saints and laughable for the Seahawks. You gave away one of the best centers in the league plus a first rounder to get a $10M TE you cannot target behind a collapsing OL and who also cannot block. Michael Johnson is on a mission, and he, Dunlap and Atkins will make the life of Wilson very difficult this Sunday.Their pass rush is just starting to gel. Lynch won't be playing this week. But it doesn't matter because a running game only matters when you are able to run effectively and that's what the Seahawks can't do behind this OL. Lynch was held to somewhat like 3.2 YPC this season. The Bengals have allowed just one red zone target and no reception for opposing TEs this season, so I wouldn't touch Jimmy Graham this week in Fantasy lineups.
It's still the Legion of Boom, so why should Andy Dalton be successful again? I believe if you have an elite OL, a good QB and a great receiving/running core, you can hardly be hold below 21 PPG. The Seahawks most of the time only rush four men to force the opposite QB to beat them deep. If they are doing this once again, Andy Dalton will beat them deep, medium and short.
2014: 83-51 (62%)
5-1 on big plays
Classes were cancelled, so I've got some time today. Feel free to discuss!
Kansas City Chiefs -8.75 -110 BIG PLAY
-8.75 because I locked it in at -9 and -8.5. This is a terrible spot for the Bears and a phenomenal spot for the Chiefs. The Bears got shut out by the Seahawks and then redeemed themselves with a last-minute FG at home against the Raiders who were in a look-ahead spot before playing the division kings at home. The Bears are in a major letdown spot here. Road underdogs of more than a TD (implicating it's a bad team) after a win off a shutout loss (21+) are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS, losing by an average of 20.14 PPG since 1989. The Chiefs have lost three consecutive games against teams who have a combined record of 12-0. Andy Reid is 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS after three consecutive losses. This exact same spot - Bears in that letdown/redeemed spot and the Chiefs off three losses occured in 2014 as well. The Chiefs played the Raiders at home after three consecutive losses when the Raiders were off a win at San Fran after a shutout loss to St. Louis. The Chiefs steamrolled the Raiders 31-13 and if not for a garbage time TD, the Chiefs would have won 31-6.
The Bears team is not in a good shape. They are banged up with injuries and the club is thinking about trading key players to build up for the future. Alshon Jeffery is still limited, he just got two full practices since the beginning of the season. "Hopeful to return soon" doesn't sound like he will lineup this week. Eddie Royal did not practice this week. Offensive linemen Kyle Long and Jermon Bushrod are banged up, Bushrod didnt practice and Long is limited. Jay Cutler said he is not 100% ready for this week but wants to play. Do you know what the Chiefs defense will do with that offense at home? It's gonna be a long long day for Jay Cutler and friends. Don't measure the Chiefs defense for their numbers which got highly deflated by road games at Green Bay and Cincinnati. They played phenomenal against Peyton Manning but the Packers at home and the Bengals will make a lot of defenses look sloppy this year, especially at home.
The Bears defense is terrible and banged up. Antrel Rolle is 99% not playing, so the Bears will probably let two rookies start at safety along with the poor Kyle Fuller and either the banged up Alan Ball or the banged up nickle Sherrick McManis? Their front seven is the better unit of that defense but even they are a little banged up with Will Sutton, Shea McClellin and Pernell McPhee limited in practice. They are not going to prevent the Chiefs from scoring. The Chiefs OL looks below-average in pass-blocking but has been excelling in run-blocking which leads the way to their offensive style. The Bengals safeties were struggling defending some crossing routes last week against the speed of Jeremy Maclin and those rookie safeties of Chicago will struggle as well. The Chiefs have been averaging 23.25 offensive PPG against teams with a combined record of 13-3 so it's not far from reality to expect a peak here on Sunday in a phenomenal spot at home. Jay Cutler will get pressured a lot and 1 or 2 INTs won't surprise me. The Bears have that kind of games in which you just want to head back home to get healthy and prepare for a weaker opponent(Lions). Chiefs are rolling here.
Cincinnati Bengals -3 -104
4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS. There is the dreamcase scenario in which you just ride a team all season long and make a shitload of money. This dream rarely becomes reality but unless the oddsmakers don't set the lines for this team higher, I have to bite. I've said it in my Futures thread and every week again: this is one of the best, at this point the best overall Football team in the league. I will look stupid if they lose this game but I believe this line is a joke and should be closer to -7. There is a crazy stat surrounding us this week: with Chancellor, the Seahawks have not allowed a TD in 18 consecutive quarters. WOW!!! How was that possible against Colin Crapernick, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill, Jimmy Clausen and Matthew Stafford without an OL and the bat rule? They are magicians.
The Bengals are the Cowboys of 2014 with a better defense. They will score their 21-35 points in every game so you need to keep their offense sidelined and try to put points on the board. How are the Seahawks going to do that with this OL? This is the worst offensive line of the NFL and I still can't believe what they thought by not improving this unit. They gave up Max Unger and a first rounder for Jimmy Graham. Porcelainfist and I said it back in June: that trade was genius by the Saints and laughable for the Seahawks. You gave away one of the best centers in the league plus a first rounder to get a $10M TE you cannot target behind a collapsing OL and who also cannot block. Michael Johnson is on a mission, and he, Dunlap and Atkins will make the life of Wilson very difficult this Sunday.Their pass rush is just starting to gel. Lynch won't be playing this week. But it doesn't matter because a running game only matters when you are able to run effectively and that's what the Seahawks can't do behind this OL. Lynch was held to somewhat like 3.2 YPC this season. The Bengals have allowed just one red zone target and no reception for opposing TEs this season, so I wouldn't touch Jimmy Graham this week in Fantasy lineups.
It's still the Legion of Boom, so why should Andy Dalton be successful again? I believe if you have an elite OL, a good QB and a great receiving/running core, you can hardly be hold below 21 PPG. The Seahawks most of the time only rush four men to force the opposite QB to beat them deep. If they are doing this once again, Andy Dalton will beat them deep, medium and short.
0
The bookies flee!!!
to another good week, Heff.... 
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