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suuma's NFL week nine

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Posted: #26
BOL 

 
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Posted: #28
Hey Suuma, congrats on the first leg of your CIN-ATL teaser.  Question for you...do you ever hedge your bets after half your teaser has been successful?  I read your write-up on the ATL-SF game and you seem very confident ATL will win by a large margin. I just look at ATL and see a team with a lot of variance.  I mean they started the season so strong, putting up points on everyone and looking solid, but the last 3 weeks they dropped games to the Saints and Bucs and sandwiched between those games they had a 3 point win over the Titans.  I guess I just don't see them as being a lock no matter how bad SF is, and I see value in perhaps placing a small hedge on SF+7.  I think I remember you previously saying you bet 3% of your bankroll on each play?  Forgive me if I'm wrong, that may have been a different poster, but assuming the 3% is correct, let's say you place a 1.5% hedge bet. I have no idea what your bankroll is, but let's say for the sake of argument you bet 110 bucks a game.  As it is with the bet you have in place, you stand to win 100 if the Falcons win by more than 1, and stand to lose 110 if they tie/lose, and win a small amount if the Falcons win by 1 (a push on a teaser reduces it to a single in this case at odds that would have reflected CIN as a 5 point favorite so let's say a 30-40 dollar win?).  Let's say you place the hedge (55 dollar bet) and...
Falcons win by 1 (You are up 50+whatever half your teaser gets you...win half teaser, and win hedge)
Falcons win by 2-6 points (You are up 150...win both)
Falcons win by 7 (You are up 100...win teaser, push hedge)
Falcons win by 8+ (You are up 45...win teaser, lose hedge)
Falcons tie or lose (You are down 50...lose teaser, but win hedge)

I guess you are limiting your upside if ATL wins easily, but the trade-off is limiting your downside if ATL has a horrible game AND making potentially more money if they keep the game close or SF has a backdoor cover but fails to win.  (Being asked to cover 7 points as an away favorite isn't easy, and SF could easily be down 10-14 late and come back and score a late TD to win you both your bets).   Just something to consider, or are you that confident that ATL will win easily and see no need to place a hedge?  I really enjoyed reading your write-ups this week, so thank you for taking the time to give us some insight into your mindset as you pick games. 
 
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Posted: #29
My man!

With you on the DEN pick, they're good to cover by -7 from my research. They were able to keep close in CAR due to the weather helping the WRs lose the DBs on coverage. 

It also helped the starting C for CAR was out and limited the Panthers ability to move the ball at their preferred pace. Had they converted just 1 or those turnovers into TDs instead of kicking FGs I believe all momentum for IND would have been lost in the 1st qtr and this wouldve been a 34-10 blowout.  

Denver should shred IND and the line is moving up as the game draws nearer. 

Im gun shy on PIT because they're going to be 1 dimensional, Ive gotta check on the backup RBs abilities.

Per my above comment, Im up in the air on GB. they should be favored by more points. If Kalil is in and CAR can establish the run this could make for an interesting game.

I think  the Rams absolutely smash this game...if theyre healthy. 

GL this week my dude!
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Well done man. Great analysis as always. I'm on the Rams but am not super confident about it. I think it comes down to a FG for either team.

The Vikings have been sort of an enigma to me this year. Their DVOA ratings are poor, and their SOS is weak. Yet they manage to keep winning SU and ATS. 

I capped this one down to special teams and the kicker. The rams kicker has 15 attempts and only 9 made.
Vikings kicker has 19 attempts and 17 made.

If you look at both teams punt/kick return yardage you will see a significant edge for the vikings as well. Feild possition will be important in this game IMO.

The Vikings are also the least penalized team in the league. Averaging 5.6 per game. I like coach Zimmer a lot, he comes from a good tree w/ Marvin Lewis. Norv Turner is a true pro when it comes to play calling. He has Bridgewater playing very well on 3rd downs. But the Rams specialty is putting teams in 3rd n long. Strength vs strength if you will, I'll back the rams there.

Adrian Peterson will go nowhere sunday, period.

BOL this weekend


Well said buddy
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by tkgap:

Great write-ups.  What's got you leaning Bears?  I think it comes down to whether they can establish Langford against that bad rush D. Thinking they can to overcome the California dreaming factor.


Thanks for your comment. You don't need to establish a run game to win games, that's a myth told by guys who watched Football in the 70s. You just need some efficient runs. The Bears need to establish the passing game and I have no doubt they will as the Chargers probably have the worst pass rush in the league. I don't know whether Cutler play every MNF game, but since he was drafted, the Bears are 12-4 SU and 10-5 ATS on MNF. Also playing in the heat of San Diego sometimes hurts teams, but in the "evening" it shouldn't be an issue. Chargers are still totally banged up.


 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by TheDrill:

I'm liking 'em all, niiiiice!  Good luck.

My faves are Pack, Titans, Steelers and Rams...in that order.  

FYI - Peters was out of practice again today for Eagles.  As you alluded to...Johnson (if they were to move him to LT, which they haven't done when Peters got injured in game, but may do with xtra practice time) isn't much of a downgrade.  Their OL depth is very thin.  BUT...they have looked better lately and gotta think that with Peters not practicing atalll they've had time to get comfortable a bit with a reshuffled line.  Not sure if it's been nagging injuries or old age, but Peters has looked old/slow this season...may even be better without him (as long as new guys can gel together - and no more injuries).



What you just said, their OL is thin. I think the gameplan can't be to rely on that OL. They had two weeks to prepare for a good pass rush and if Chip Kelly isn't dumb, he develops a gameplan that doesn't put Sam Bradford in the pocket for 3+ seconds on most of the plays.


 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Steven19083:



 This is everything a teaser should be: small and simple, advantageous to the player, and with a good payout (almost even money). Love it. 


Yeah I like when I get teasers below/above key numbers on teams I prefer on the spread anyway.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Suuma you have stones taking the Titans.

I know you saw them vs. the Falcons and last week vs the awful Texans where they had trouble even crossing the 50 yard line.

Mario is an upgrade obviously but the 'lay-down' factor in a now hopeless season prevents me from even considering the Titans until I see some fire somewhere...



Scal my beloved netpal. Numbers never lie:

#5 in adjusted sack rate (8.2%)
#5 in Pass DVOA (-13.3%)
#6 in 3rd down DVOA (-20%)

That's what the Titans defense brings to the table. They are a very efficient defense. Marcus Mariota finally has a new coach who already said they are going to have some new schemes for him. Whisenhunt let him run just 10 times this season. Tell that Cam Newton and he seeks for another team to play for. I think we will see a better offense this time with better play-calling and a team that will play for their new coach. Saints in the little letdown plus Titans with a new coach makes me believe this game is going to be closer than many think.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

And no Bengals/Browns play? You've capped the Bengals every week this year I bet. Why stop now?


I was leaning Bengals -10.5 but I really liked the opportunity to tease them down to -5 and go the "safer" way as I can't see the Falcons losing at SF.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by ArtSchlichterJr:

If both Cam Heyward and Tuitt  both do not play for Pitt on the line I would be very ..... Tuitt missed the last two and it showed ... Now without possibly Heyward  they will have to outscore the Raiders.. Their backups are dogs....  But IMO they could outscore the Raiders...If  No Cam or Tuitt  they   will have to..  .  Without those two the run game will roll for the Raiders which will open the pass game up especially with very little  pressure.. If both play or even just Cam I love them ..... without both well.... no bet for me..  gl...


Now you scared me and I checked the injury reports reports once again. Heyward is not listed as injured and Tuitt had full practice yesterday 
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by MRxKrazz:

Good Luck SUUMA! With you on many of the games, but I lean DAL right now, that impressive D you been mentioning all year will play KEY in this game, and I actually like how DAL have McFadden running the rock now. Besides this game, love GB DEN and see PIT winning at home.



Yeah Krazz I really like the Dallas defense, but IMO the key is the bye week for the Eagles. They had two weeks to prepare for this defense and I give the coaching advantage to Chip Kelly off a bye over Jason Garrett. I can't see McFadden running like a rock against this front seven that can stack the box because Matt Cassel isn't going to light them up!

Good luck pal let's get them!
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Thanks for your comment. You don't need to establish a run game to win games, that's a myth told by guys who watched Football in the 70s. You just need some efficient runs. The Bears need to establish the passing game and I have no doubt they will as the Chargers probably have the worst pass rush in the league. I don't know whether Cutler play every MNF game, but since he was drafted, the Bears are 12-4 SU and 10-5 ATS on MNF. Also playing in the heat of San Diego sometimes hurts teams, but in the "evening" it shouldn't be an issue. Chargers are still totally banged up.




Correction: since he has been with the Bears, the Bears are 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS on MNF.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Humchucker:

Hey Suuma, congrats on the first leg of your CIN-ATL teaser.  Question for you...do you ever hedge your bets after half your teaser has been successful?  I read your write-up on the ATL-SF game and you seem very confident ATL will win by a large margin. I just look at ATL and see a team with a lot of variance.  I mean they started the season so strong, putting up points on everyone and looking solid, but the last 3 weeks they dropped games to the Saints and Bucs and sandwiched between those games they had a 3 point win over the Titans.  I guess I just don't see them as being a lock no matter how bad SF is, and I see value in perhaps placing a small hedge on SF+7.  I think I remember you previously saying you bet 3% of your bankroll on each play?  Forgive me if I'm wrong, that may have been a different poster, but assuming the 3% is correct, let's say you place a 1.5% hedge bet. I have no idea what your bankroll is, but let's say for the sake of argument you bet 110 bucks a game.  As it is with the bet you have in place, you stand to win 100 if the Falcons win by more than 1, and stand to lose 110 if they tie/lose, and win a small amount if the Falcons win by 1 (a push on a teaser reduces it to a single in this case at odds that would have reflected CIN as a 5 point favorite so let's say a 30-40 dollar win?).  Let's say you place the hedge (55 dollar bet) and...
Falcons win by 1 (You are up 50+whatever half your teaser gets you...win half teaser, and win hedge)
Falcons win by 2-6 points (You are up 150...win both)
Falcons win by 7 (You are up 100...win teaser, push hedge)
Falcons win by 8+ (You are up 45...win teaser, lose hedge)
Falcons tie or lose (You are down 50...lose teaser, but win hedge)

I guess you are limiting your upside if ATL wins easily, but the trade-off is limiting your downside if ATL has a horrible game AND making potentially more money if they keep the game close or SF has a backdoor cover but fails to win.  (Being asked to cover 7 points as an away favorite isn't easy, and SF could easily be down 10-14 late and come back and score a late TD to win you both your bets).   Just something to consider, or are you that confident that ATL will win easily and see no need to place a hedge?  I really enjoyed reading your write-ups this week, so thank you for taking the time to give us some insight into your mindset as you pick games. 


Hey buddy thanks for your great comment. I would consider that but I get pushed if one leg of the teaser is a tie.

Anyway, thanks for your comment, it earns a separate thread on here!
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by TheForbes777:

My man!

With you on the DEN pick, they're good to cover by -7 from my research. They were able to keep close in CAR due to the weather helping the WRs lose the DBs on coverage. 

It also helped the starting C for CAR was out and limited the Panthers ability to move the ball at their preferred pace. Had they converted just 1 or those turnovers into TDs instead of kicking FGs I believe all momentum for IND would have been lost in the 1st qtr and this wouldve been a 34-10 blowout.  

Denver should shred IND and the line is moving up as the game draws nearer. 

Im gun shy on PIT because they're going to be 1 dimensional, Ive gotta check on the backup RBs abilities.

Per my above comment, Im up in the air on GB. they should be favored by more points. If Kalil is in and CAR can establish the run this could make for an interesting game.

I think  the Rams absolutely smash this game...if theyre healthy. 

GL this week my dude!


I agree on everything but the highlighted sentence. I expected this game to be at pk. It says GB would be favored by 8ish at home against a 7-0 team and that line should rather be -7.

Panthers dominated the Colts until the 4th quarter, I believe the Broncos won't fall down in that situation!

Buddy let's get them!
 
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Posted: #41
Great write up, locked in plays looks great
BOL
 
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Posted: #42

I made STL +2.5 my top play. 

Hope the HEFF is on them as well. 

ESPN's Cousin Sal, (who is damn good) has Tenn +8.5 and

Pitt -4.5 as his best bet.   Those are my 3.    me Heff. 

 
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Posted: #43
Quinn, Long, Hayes and McDonald didn't practice yesterday. Havenstein is expected to practice today. Will wait for todays update.

Dog, personally I would never take a spread of +1 to +2.5, because it's money left on the table. Over history, these spreads came to play just about 6% of the time. Over the long run it's more profitable to take the ML!
 
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Posted: #44
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Now you scared me and I checked the injury reports reports once again. Heyward is not listed as injured and Tuitt had full practice yesterday 
  It does look like Tuitt is going to play but that was the case last week till game day  and he sat .... Heyward  is having a baby due date is Sunday... He said if its born late Saturday night or any time before the game he will leave the facility and beat it over to the hospital ( 5 minutes from Heinz Field)..
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Dogjimbo:

I made STL +2.5 my top play. 

Hope the HEFF is on them as well. 

ESPN's Cousin Sal, (who is damn good) has Tenn +8.5 and

Pitt -4.5 as his best bet.   Those are my 3.    me Heff. 


Cousin Sal :)


He's a writer for Jimmy Kimmell, not a capper. And yes, I know he got hot before. I'll take Cowherd over him any day (although since he went to Fox Sports, he is quite average).

I do listen to the podcast like you though...but for entertainment and maybe, just maybe to hear Simmons throw something out about the Patriots, which might be mildly helpful...
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Rams/Vikes:

There is one thing we know about Teddy Bridgewater: he can shred weak defenses, but he can’t beat good defenses – yet. Their offense ranks bottom-five and they are going to face the best defense in the league (or Denver? You decide) – mismatch. The Rams’ DL is going to be in the backfield very often to disrupt the passing lanes for Teddy and stop Adrian Peterson. The Vikes come off a last-minute comeback win on the road against a mediocre defense. This defense is going to be too tough for them. On the other side Todd Gurley looks unstoppable, which highly benefits the weak pass protection of the Rams. Opposing teams have to respect the run which leads to less guys in coverage and roll-out opportunities for Nick Foles. The OL of the Rams will have problems against the Vikings’ blitzes, but they are balanced enough to overcome that. The OL of Detroit is piss-poor in picking up blitzes and because they don’t have a running game to force lesser blitzes, they got shredded twice by the Rams. This is a different matchup which favors the Rams overall X’ and O’s wise more than the Vikings. I don’t expect a big win, but a win for the Rams. I can see a 14-7 halftime lead and a lot of Gurley action in the second half to milk the clock and force Bridgewater staying longer in the pocket for 10+ yd throws. Then the Rams would benefit from their deep DL rotation which could secure a 20-10 type of win.

Great analysis and overall I'm on the same sides very strongly with both fundamentals (Xs Os matchups) and technicals (situational trends) favoring the picks. 

However, IMHO I think you (and the markets overall) are having trouble evaluating both the Vikings and Rams teams. Vikings statistically are an anomaly and hard to gauge. If you watch their games they play better than the stats. If you watch the Rams games they actually play worse than their stats. 

The Rams have benefited from playing 2 overmatched teams at home. The Browns were simply gassed from playing their hearts out to lose in OT to the Broncos. The 49ers are actively tanking the season and Kapernick has regressed below replacement level. However I watched that sh**t game and there were opportunities to exploit the Rams defense all game. They left guys uncovered, the DL was undisciplined in their rush lanes, and they gave several opportunities to any avg offense to exploit their aggression w/ RB/WR screens. 

Statistically the Rams offense is one of the worst in the league. Against the awesome 49ers defense this team was 1/12 on 3rd downs!!! Of their 28 first downs 7 of them came by penalty (25%). 

Essentially these teams are very similar in that they rely on solid defense and the run game to win. The STL DL is unquestionably one of the best but they are not unbeatable by any means. Outside of Tavon Austin and Gurley the offensive talent in the skill positions is clearly inferior to MIN despite the stats. I lean MIN here but haven't made it a play yet. 
 
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Posted: #48
Another disturbing trend for Rams backers to consider:

Since 2012 with Jeff Fisher as head coach Rams teams on the road are SU 9-17-1 (34.6%) and ATS 14-13-0 (51.9%) with an average line of +6.4 losing by an average score Rams 18 Opponent ~22. 

If you only want to consider their recent stellar defense the same trend from 2014-present Rams are: SU 4-7 (36.4%) and ATS 5-6 (45.5%) avg line of +5.7 losing by an average score of Rams 16 to Opponent 22. 
 
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Posted: #49
It is a no,play now but rams or nothing for me.  Will decide my play sat nite.  Also looking at several other games

Your logic doesnt make sense when you say aside from gurley.  Thats like saying aside from jamaal charles chiefs are a bad team

Gurley didnt play,most of the season.  His threat makes a huge difference and opens up the pass attack

The rams beat the 9ers easily.  Gurley was on the sidelines all 4th quarter.  There were pockets where the 9ers looked good but there were pockets where manziel looked good

Dont know much about the vikings
 
 
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Posted: #50
They clocked gurleys spped he is as fast as anyone in the nfl which is why when he breaks the first defense he can go to the house

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