All Forums | NFL Betting

suuma's NFL week nine

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 26913
Posts: 124
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 612
Posted: #51
Giant + Atlanta + Eagles 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2013
Posts: 506
Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

It is a no,play now but rams or nothing for me.  Will decide my play sat nite.  Also looking at several other games

Your logic doesnt make sense when you say aside from gurley.  Thats like saying aside from jamaal charles chiefs are a bad team

Gurley didnt play,most of the season.  His threat makes a huge difference and opens up the pass attack

The rams beat the 9ers easily.  Gurley was on the sidelines all 4th quarter.  There were pockets where the 9ers looked good but there were pockets where manziel looked good

Dont know much about the vikings

I was referring to the depth of their offensive skill positions. Rams have 2 players that are better than average although I do like Mason too, w/ Vikings you have AP, Diggs, Wallace (underperforming), McKinnon and more consistent TE play from Rudolph, Ellison than Cook who is talented but also underperforming/inconsistent. 

Arguably you could make the case that TB is as good or better than Nick Foles. Both teams have really bad OL play at times but I believe the offensive chemistry is better with the Vikings overall. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by BainMasters:


Great analysis and overall I'm on the same sides very strongly with both fundamentals (Xs Os matchups) and technicals (situational trends) favoring the picks. 

However, IMHO I think you (and the markets overall) are having trouble evaluating both the Vikings and Rams teams. Vikings statistically are an anomaly and hard to gauge. If you watch their games they play better than the stats. If you watch the Rams games they actually play worse than their stats. 

The Rams have benefited from playing 2 overmatched teams at home. The Browns were simply gassed from playing their hearts out to lose in OT to the Broncos. The 49ers are actively tanking the season and Kapernick has regressed below replacement level. However I watched that sh**t game and there were opportunities to exploit the Rams defense all game. They left guys uncovered, the DL was undisciplined in their rush lanes, and they gave several opportunities to any avg offense to exploit their aggression w/ RB/WR screens. 

Statistically the Rams offense is one of the worst in the league. Against the awesome 49ers defense this team was 1/12 on 3rd downs!!! Of their 28 first downs 7 of them came by penalty (25%). 

Essentially these teams are very similar in that they rely on solid defense and the run game to win. The STL DL is unquestionably one of the best but they are not unbeatable by any means. Outside of Tavon Austin and Gurley the offensive talent in the skill positions is clearly inferior to MIN despite the stats. I lean MIN here but haven't made it a play yet. 


Thanks for your great post, appreciate it. I just don't agree on your assessment the Rams being worse than their stats. I think they "look" worse because they give up a lot of yardage but they play lights out when it comes to efficiency. Their defense gave up 14.9 PPG, good for second in the league right after Denver. They are #1 in the red zone, #2 on third downs and so on.. they just play very efficient by not letting opponents score - and their schedule was pretty tough if you reduce the Niners. They held the Steelers to 9 points through three quarters with Ben playing for instance.

We knew their offense would start as one of the worst in the league with a new-look OL and new QB plus Gurley still not 100%. I think they are getting better. A huge point is that they try to gameplan away from the weak pass protection as they allow an adjusted sack rate of just 5.3%.

The Vikes OL allows a sack on every 11th play.. this is going to be a nightmare matchup for the Vikes.
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 22660
Posted: #54
Gl this week Suuma
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 17917
Posted: #55
Both teams have really bad OL play at times but I believe the offensive chemistry is better with the Vikings overall. 

Agree the rams ol is average at best as is foles.  Not impressed.

The difference is gurley.  The game was close until he took it to the house.  9ers defense stopped pressuring foles.

But the public is finally taking notice of the rams.

Rams dont have a great secondary but they are ferocious pass rushers.  As suuma said teddy gets sacked often

Interesting is all i can saynow, no play.  Gl fellas


 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2013
Posts: 506
Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Thanks for your great post, appreciate it. I just don't agree on your assessment the Rams being worse than their stats. I think they "look" worse because they give up a lot of yardage but they play lights out when it comes to efficiency. Their defense gave up 14.9 PPG, good for second in the league right after Denver. They are #1 in the red zone, #2 on third downs and so on.. they just play very efficient by not letting opponents score - and their schedule was pretty tough if you reduce the Niners. They held the Steelers to 9 points through three quarters with Ben playing for instance.

We knew their offense would start as one of the worst in the league with a new-look OL and new QB plus Gurley still not 100%. I think they are getting better. A huge point is that they try to gameplan away from the weak pass protection as they allow an adjusted sack rate of just 5.3%.

The Vikes OL allows a sack on every 11th play.. this is going to be a nightmare matchup for the Vikes.

That's always scary when backing the vikings but I will say I think TB is very poised given how bad his OL is and they love him b/c he never throws them under the bus so they play hard even tho they are overmatched. 

However some potential critical injuries to both defenses have to be considered in this matchup. I don't think too many of the Friday practice reports have been updated yet but as of Thursday here are the DNPs:

RAMS: William Hayes (DE) DNP, Chris Long (DE) DNP, TJ McDonald (S) DNP, Quinn (DE) DNP both weds/thrs

VIKINGS: Barr (LB) DNP, Sheriff Floyd (DE) DNP, Kendricks (LB) DNP
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 394
Posted: #57
glad to see pitt on your list...betting the farm on pitt..this is my second farm bet this year...first one being pitt over arizona...there's only one bet this week, and it's pitt again...i think i might get 3.5 before game time and buy a half
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 935
Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by BainMasters:


That's always scary when backing the vikings but I will say I think TB is very poised given how bad his OL is and they love him b/c he never throws them under the bus so they play hard even tho they are overmatched. 

However some potential critical injuries to both defenses have to be considered in this matchup. I don't think too many of the Friday practice reports have been updated yet but as of Thursday here are the DNPs:

RAMS: William Hayes (DE) DNP, Chris Long (DE) DNP, TJ McDonald (S) DNP, Quinn (DE) DNP both weds/thrs

VIKINGS: Barr (LB) DNP, Sheriff Floyd (DE) DNP, Kendricks (LB) DNP


From what I'm seeing Barr is going to be fine, but Sharrif Floyd will miss his 3rd straight game and Kenricks has a rib injury and is going to be doubtful.

I'm a Vikings guy and I have to say there has to be better games to wager on than this one.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2013
Posts: 506
Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Liturgy_of_Fade:



From what I'm seeing Barr is going to be fine, but Sharrif Floyd will miss his 3rd straight game and Kenricks has a rib injury and is going to be doubtful.

I'm a Vikings guy and I have to say there has to be better games to wager on than this one.


No question. There are a lot of good arguments being made both ways. I think the line is accurate for the most part and will likely pass. I'm just waiting for a good opportunity to fade this terrible Rams offense. 

What really disgusts me about that team is their inability to sustain an offensive drive w/o either getting the benefit of a penalty or a shot play. 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 2165
Posted: #60
BOL THIS WEEK

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 2432
Posted: #61
Suuma once again excellent picks and analysis.  Great info and analysis you threads always foster the best info when it comes the NFL betting.  I with you on the Broncos and Packers.  Luck is going to get crushed by the Broncos defense with the Colts crappy O-line.  Peyton is going to want come back and put on a show against his former team.  I think the Broncos offense has finally got their identity figured out and will want revenge for last years playoff loss.  I hate going against the undefeated home dog, but this is a great spot for the Packers and Rodgers is usually awesome off a loss and Panthers coming off a tough OT win on short week will be tough.  I am staying away from the Oak-Pit game because I am unsure if Big Ben is really that healthy, he looked rather robotic against the Bengals.  Oakland was my initial lean, but they are in such a horrible spot going out east after 2 big wins.  Bell is out for the Steelers which hurts, and Oakland just always seems to have the Steelers number so I will stay away. Rams are also a tough call as they matchup really well against the Vikes, but the Vikings are so well coached and at home so I will stay away as well.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2015
Posts: 1375
Posted: #62
suuma 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2015
Posts: 331
Posted: #63
With you on PIT, leaning a couple of others there 

GL 
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 20649
Posted: #64
Summa,

Thanks for all you do.  I know your not generally a totals guy, but doesn't the Saints game scream over 48?

Any opinion on that would be appreciated.

Thanks...C
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 1820
Posted: #65
Im liking the Rams more and more. Reading up on the Defense they're fired up and the potential replacements know the system well. We'll see how the line moves, currently at +2, if it stays or drops I'll probably go ML. 

Im liking the Packers the more and more, especially off the embarrasing loss. My only concern is whether or not the Packers will perform similarly againt the CAR D the way they did against Rams and Broncos. Id looked into DVOA in the past, but much more so since you've been referencing them. According to DVOA, CAR is the #2 ranked Defense vs. GBs #4 O. GB makes up for this by having a better D than CARs O and special teams (which is VERY underrated) goes to the Packers. I think this game is going to be a lot closer than even I anticipated, but the lean is definitely with Packers.

Im leaning more and more towards Raiders. That entire team is fired up and the veterans in the locker room have the young guns believing they can win every week. DVOA gives the edge to the Raiders, but Deangello Williams is a serviceable RB and the Steelers at home launch missles. 

I really like MIA this week off the long break and fired up after the whooping they caught in NE. Thoughts? 

GL as always my man.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by powercore:

Suuma once again excellent picks and analysis.  Great info and analysis you threads always foster the best info when it comes the NFL betting.  I with you on the Broncos and Packers.  Luck is going to get crushed by the Broncos defense with the Colts crappy O-line.  Peyton is going to want come back and put on a show against his former team.  I think the Broncos offense has finally got their identity figured out and will want revenge for last years playoff loss.  I hate going against the undefeated home dog, but this is a great spot for the Packers and Rodgers is usually awesome off a loss and Panthers coming off a tough OT win on short week will be tough.  I am staying away from the Oak-Pit game because I am unsure if Big Ben is really that healthy, he looked rather robotic against the Bengals.  Oakland was my initial lean, but they are in such a horrible spot going out east after 2 big wins.  Bell is out for the Steelers which hurts, and Oakland just always seems to have the Steelers number so I will stay away. Rams are also a tough call as they matchup really well against the Vikes, but the Vikings are so well coached and at home so I will stay away as well.


Powercore, thanks man. I get your point on the Rams. It's very tough for me to pull the trigger if all first three DEs aren't playing. Maybe catch them in a teaser!

We think the same about the Broncos!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:

Summa,

Thanks for all you do.  I know your not generally a totals guy, but doesn't the Saints game scream over 48?

Any opinion on that would be appreciated.

Thanks...C


I am not good in totals. I think the Titans have a pretty good defense that will cause some troubles for the Saints. It's a different matchup than last week! I can see the result being in the high 40s, but can't give a final lean!


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by Nickel-Bets:

With you on PIT, leaning a couple of others there 

GL 


Nickel, your record is outstanding, let's get them this week
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by BetFriends:

suuma 


My anti-conspiracy-buddy, HA
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by TheForbes777:

Im liking the Rams more and more. Reading up on the Defense they're fired up and the potential replacements know the system well. We'll see how the line moves, currently at +2, if it stays or drops I'll probably go ML. 

Im liking the Packers the more and more, especially off the embarrasing loss. My only concern is whether or not the Packers will perform similarly againt the CAR D the way they did against Rams and Broncos. Id looked into DVOA in the past, but much more so since you've been referencing them. According to DVOA, CAR is the #2 ranked Defense vs. GBs #4 O. GB makes up for this by having a better D than CARs O and special teams (which is VERY underrated) goes to the Packers. I think this game is going to be a lot closer than even I anticipated, but the lean is definitely with Packers.

Im leaning more and more towards Raiders. That entire team is fired up and the veterans in the locker room have the young guns believing they can win every week. DVOA gives the edge to the Raiders, but Deangello Williams is a serviceable RB and the Steelers at home launch missles. 

I really like MIA this week off the long break and fired up after the whooping they caught in NE. Thoughts? 

GL as always my man.


My only problem with their D are the injuries. Long is out, Quinn and Hayes are Q - that's all first three DEs. T.J. McDonald didn't practice as well. Can't pull the trigger right now.

MIA/BUF: A lot is pointing towards Miami, but it's Rex Ryan off a bye week and I give the coaching advantage to him. On the other side, Rex was 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS off a bye week at New York. RT Ja'Wuan James is out and I've read that the Bills will use some other schemes to get their strong pass rush of 2014 more involved. Leodis McKelvin back as well - leaning BUF here.


 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 17423
Posted: #71

Always enjoy reading your thoughts, Heff.   

I ended up with Denver -4, STL +2.5 and Tenn +8.5 ..

BOL buddy

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by Dogjimbo:

Always enjoy reading your thoughts, Heff.   

I ended up with Denver -4, STL +2.5 and Tenn +8.5 ..

BOL buddy



Looks like 3-0, Dog Might take STL in a teaser with the Bucs.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Locked in:

6-pt-teaser Bengals -5 & Falcons -1 -110
6-pt-teaser Bears +10 & Falcons -1 -110
6-pt-teaser Bucs +9 & Jets -2 -110
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 -111
Green Bay Packers -2.5 -109
Tennessee Titans +8.5 -110
Denver Broncos -4.5 -109 BIG PLAY**


Strong leans:

Rams (waiting for tomorrow's injury report)
Eagles (waiting for tomorrow's injury report)
Bears

Good luck everybody!

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 232
Posted: #74
Hi suuma, how many more times would you play your big play over your regular plays? Thanks and good luck!
 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 5612
Posted: #75
All Forums | NFL Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.