• Forums
  • Best Betting Sites
  • Sportsbook Promos
  • Best Sports Betting Apps
  • NFL Betting Forum
  • NBA Betting Forum
  • MLB Betting Forum
  • NHL Betting Forum
  • NCAAF Betting Forum
  • NCAAB Betting Forum
  • Soccer Betting Forum
  • Tennis Betting Forum
  • General Discussion
  • Help Forum
  • Guidelines
  • FAQ
  • Forum Updates
    Covers Logo
    Covers App
    Faster picks. Smarter bets.
    All in the NEW Covers App
    Download on the App Store Download on the Google Play Store
    • Sports
      • NFL
        • Back
        • NFL
        • NFL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NFL Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NCAAF
        • Back
        • NCAAF
        • NCAAF Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NCAAF Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NBA
        • Back
        • NBA
        • NBA Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NBA Picks
        • Injuries
      • NCAAB
        • Back
        • NCAAB
        • NCAAB Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • NCAAB Picks
        • Injuries
      • MLB
        • Back
        • MLB
        • MLB Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • MLB Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NHL
        • Back
        • NHL
        • NHL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NHL Picks
        • Injuries
      • Soccer
      • UFC
      • WNBA
        • Back
        • WNBA
        • WNBA Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • WNBA Picks
        • Injuries
      • CFL
        • Back
        • CFL
        • CFL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • CFL Picks
      • Golf
        • Back
        • Golf
        • Golf Home
        • Golf Odds
        • Masters Odds
        • PGA Championship Odds
        • US Open Odds
        • British Open Odds
        • Ryder Cup Odds
        • Golf Picks
    • Odds
      • All Odds
      • NFL
      • NCAAF
      • NBA
      • NCAAB
      • MLB
      • NHL
      • Golf
      • Soccer Odds
        • Back
        • Soccer Odds
        • MLS Odds
        • Champions League Odds
        • Premier League Odds
      • UFC
      • WNBA
      • CFL
      • Election Odds
      • Futures
        • Back
        • Futures
        • NFL
        • NBA
        • MLB
        • NHL
        • NCAAB
        • NCAAF
      • Sports Odds History
    • Picks
      • All Picks
      • NFL
      • NBA
      • NHL
      • MLB
      • NCAAF
      • NCAAB
      • Golf
      • WNBA
      • CFL
      • User Picks
      • Team User Picks
      • Consensus Picks
        • Back
        • Consensus Picks
        • All Consensus Picks
        • NFL
        • NBA
        • NHL
        • MLB
        • NCAAF
        • NCAAB
        • CFL
        • WNBA
        • Consensus FAQ
        • Public Money
    • Prop Projections
      • NFL
      • NBA
      • MLB
      • NHL
    • Betting
      • US Betting Sites
      • Canada Betting Sites
      • Sportsbook Reviews
      • States
        • Back
        • States
        • US Legal Tracker
        • Revenue Tracker
        • Arizona
        • Arkansas
        • California
        • Colorado
        • Connecticut
        • DC
        • Florida
        • Georgia
        • Illinois
        • Indiana
        • Iowa
        • Kansas
        • Kentucky
        • Louisiana
        • Maine
        • Maryland
        • Massachusetts
        • Michigan
        • Mississippi
        • Missouri
        • Nevada
        • New Hampshire
        • New Jersey
        • New York
        • North Carolina
        • Ohio
        • Oregon
        • Pennsylvania
        • Tennessee
        • Texas
        • Vermont
        • Virginia
        • West Virginia
        • Wyoming
      • Provinces
        • Back
        • Provinces
        • Alberta
        • British Columbia
        • Manitoba
        • New Brunswick
        • Newfoundland and Labrador
        • Northwest Territories
        • Nova Scotia
        • Nunavut
        • Ontario
        • Prince Edward Island
        • Quebec (English)
        • Quebec (francais)
        • Saskatchewan
        • Yukon
      • By Sport
        • Back
        • By Sport
        • Baseball
        • Basketball
        • Boxing
        • College Football
        • F1
        • Football
        • Super Bowl
        • Golf
        • Hockey
        • Horse Racing
        • March Madness
        • Soccer
        • UFC
        • World Cup
      • Betting Apps
        • Back
        • Betting Apps
        • Best Sports Betting Apps USA
        • Ontario Sports Betting Apps
      • Rest of World
        • Back
        • Rest of World
        • UK Betting Offers
          • Back
          • UK Betting Offers
          • UK Betting Sites
          • bet365 Bonus Code UK
          • 888Sport Promo Code UK
          • William Hill Sign up Offer
          • Betway Sign up Offer
          • BetVictor Bonus Code UK
      • Betting Guides
        • Back
        • Betting Guides
        • All Guides
        • Glossary
        • Betting Calculators
          • Back
          • Betting Calculators
          • Odds Converter
          • Parlay Calculator
        • Futures Betting Guide
        • Moneyline Betting Guide
        • Over/Under Betting Guide
        • Parlay Betting Guide
        • Point Spread Betting Guide
        • Prop Betting Guide
        • Sports Betting Guides
          • Back
          • Sports Betting Guides
          • How To Bet On Sports Guide
          • NFL Betting Guide
          • NHL Betting Guide
          • NBA Betting Guide
          • MLB Betting Guide
          • NCAAB Betting Guide
          • NCAAF Betting Guide
          • Golf Betting Guide
          • Tennis Betting Guide
        • Teaser Betting Guide
      • Betting News
        • Back
        • Betting News
        • All News
        • Industry News
        • Podcasts
        • Covers Videos
        • Covers Writers
        • Offers & Boosts
    • Promos
      • Sportsbook Promos
      • Canada Sportsbook Promos
      • Bonuses By Sportsbook
        • Back
        • Bonuses By Sportsbook
        • bet365 Bonus Code
        • BET99 Promo Code
        • BetMGM Bonus Code
        • BetRivers Bonus Code
        • Caesars Sportsbook Promo
        • DraftKings Promo Code
        • Fanatics Sportsbook Promo
        • FanDuel Promo Code
        • Hard Rock Bet Promo Code
        • Sports Interaction Promo
        • Stake Promo Code
        • theScore Bet Promo Code
        • TonyBet Promo Code
      • Bonuses By Region
        • Back
        • Bonuses By Region
        • Arkansas Promos
        • Arizona Promos
        • Colorado Promos
        • Connecticut Promos
        • DC Promos
        • Illinois Promos
        • Indiana Promos
        • Iowa Promos
        • Kansas Promos
        • Kentucky Promos
        • Louisiana Promos
        • Maine Promos
        • Maryland Promos
        • Massachusetts Promos
        • Michigan Promos
        • Missouri Promos
        • New Jersey Promos
        • New York Promos
        • North Carolina Promos
        • Ohio Promos
        • Pennsylvania Promos
        • Tennessee Promos
        • Vermont Promos
        • Virginia Promos
        • West Virginia Promos
        • Wyoming Promos
    • Forum & Contests
      • All Forums
      • NFL Betting Forum
      • MLB Betting Forum
      • NCAAB Betting Forum
      • NCAAF Betting Forum
      • NBA Betting Forum
      • NHL Betting Forum
      • Soccer Betting Forum
      • Contests
        • Back
        • Contests
        • Contests Home
        • Streak Survivor
        • King of Covers
        • My Contests
    • Casino
      • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Back
        • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Sweepstakes No-Deposit Bonuses
        • Sweepstakes Promos
          • Back
          • Sweepstakes Promos
          • Card Crush
          • Casino.click
          • Chanced Casino
          • Crown Coins Casino
          • FreeSpin Casino
          • LoneStar
          • McLuck
          • Mega Bonanza Casino
          • PlayFame
          • Pulsz
          • Stake.us
      • US Casinos
        • Back
        • US Casinos
        • US Online Casinos
        • US Online Casino Bonuses
        • Casino Promos
          • Back
          • Casino Promos
          • bet365 Casino Promo Code
          • BetRivers Casino Promo
          • Borgata Casino Bonus Code
          • Caesars Casino Bonus Code
          • DraftKings Casino Promo
          • Fanatics Casino Promo
          • FanDuel Casino Promo Code
          • Golden Nugget Casino Promo
          • Hard Rock Bet Casino Promo
          • Hollywood Casino Promo Code
      • Canada Casinos
        • Back
        • Canada Casinos
        • Canada Online Casinos
        • Provinces
          • Back
          • Provinces
          • Alberta Online Casino
          • BC Online Casino
          • Ontario Online Casinos
        • Casino Promos
          • Back
          • Casino Promos
          • BC.GAME Bonus Code
          • Cloudbet Promo Code
          • RainBet Promo Code
          • Roobet Promo Code
          • Shuffle Promo Code
          • Thrill Promo Code
    • Prediction Markets
      • Prediction Markets
      • Prediction Market Apps
      • Prediction Market Promos
      • Kalshi Promo Code
      • Polymarket Promo Code
      • DraftKings Predictions Promo Code
      • Novig Promo Code
      • ProphetX Promo Code
      • Underdog Promo Code
      • OG Promo Code
      • Fanatics Markets Promo Code
      • Plus500 Promo Code
    Covers Account
    Log in Create account
    Join free Log in
    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    suuma's NFL week seventeen «» The battle of Buffalo

    123 ... 567 Next Last»
    suuma
    naesiy
    sports_Network
    undermysac
    TheHuffNBA
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 19480
    Posts: 164
    123 ... 567 Next Last»
     
    suuma
    suuma
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2010
    Posts: 4455
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 8:35 AM ET #1

    59-49 ytd

    After a terrible season I am finally heating up for the playoffs. Week 17 is difficult to cap because there are a lot of weird spots. So it's possible I will end up with just 3-4 picks.

    What's very interesting is that huge underdogs just don't win in the last week. Since 2009, underdogs of more than a TD are 1-36 SU and 13-24 ATS. They are 2-35 on 6-pt-teasers. Since 2008 they are 2-41 SU and so on. These teams don't have motivation to win, they play for the draft pick. So you could look to find some teasing options.

    For example the Ravens and Dolphins will have NO motivation to win this week. The Ravens had their personal Super Bowl last week and they don't care about a win over the Bengals. The Dolphins are already looking at the next draft, they have no motivation whether the Pats will have the first or second seed. But the Pats wanna have home field through the playoffs.

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    59-49 ytd

    After a terrible season I am finally heating up for the playoffs. Week 17 is difficult to cap because there are a lot of weird spots. So it's possible I will end up with just 3-4 picks.

    What's very interesting is that huge underdogs just don't win in the last week. Since 2009, underdogs of more than a TD are 1-36 SU and 13-24 ATS. They are 2-35 on 6-pt-teasers. Since 2008 they are 2-41 SU and so on. These teams don't have motivation to win, they play for the draft pick. So you could look to find some teasing options.

    For example the Ravens and Dolphins will have NO motivation to win this week. The Ravens had their personal Super Bowl last week and they don't care about a win over the Bengals. The Dolphins are already looking at the next draft, they have no motivation whether the Pats will have the first or second seed. But the Pats wanna have home field through the playoffs.

     
    suuma
    suuma
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2010
    Posts: 4455
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 8:36 AM ET #2

    New York Jets -3 +105

    This isn't the "same old Jets" team. This isn't the Bills team from 2014. If it was last year, I would sweat my pants but not this time. When Rex Ryan said "maybe we are going to run the ball 40 times a game next year" I knew the Bills won't make the playoffs. Rex is a great motivator and was a great defensive mind at New York, but he doesn't know how to run an offense. He thinks that if his team can pound the ball, he is going to win a lot of Football games. But he isn't able to pay a statistics geek to tell him that there is virtually no correlation between yards per carry and scoring points.

    70% of the winning teams have more total rush yards than their opponent because they milk the clock in the second half and the losing team needs to air it out. That's the whole secret. That's why playoff defenses show low numbers. Total yards just mean NOTHING. The Bills are the number one team in total rushing yards per game but they are far away from the playoffs. A good running game sets up the passing game and sometimes you might see a RB breaking tackles for a 60yd TD. But in the long run you need to pass efficiently to score points. If someone says this is bullsh*t, just go on and I will bomb you with several examples and explanations. Look what the Seahawks and Chiefs do without Lynch and Charles.

    The Bills from 2014 had the best overall defense in the league. They were #1 in pass DVOA and #12 in run DVOA. They had the best pass rush in the league. Rex Ryan turned this defense into complete bullsh*t. Before the Cowboys game they were the #29 total defense in DVOA, #22 in pass and #30 in rush. The Cowboys game was much closer than people think. The Cowboys were moving the chains without Dez Bryant and Kellen Moore at QB AT Buffalo. They have the #18 scoring defense at 21.9 PPG. Their offense looks very good by looking at the numbers (#7 total DVOA) and that's something that made me shaking my head so I took a look deeper, because watching tape tells us a different story. Their offensive efficiency doesn't really translate to their offensive PPG at 22.7 (#13). They have a variance of 10% in their DVOA numbers which is the third-worst value. It means they have been playing VERY inconsistently. Also their PPG are inflated due to two big wins against one of the worst defenses in the league of the Miami Dolphins. The eye-test proves me right: this is an average offense. After reading that stuff, add to that: the Bills have played a below average schedule. The Jets have also played a worse schedule BUT there is one difference: the Jets have a top-5 defense and a top-10 offense scoring wise. That's the difference between a 7-8 and a 10-5 team. The Bills have two quality wins on their schedule: vs. HOU and at NYJ. The latter one is the game I just watched again this morning:

    In week 10, the Bills caught the Jets in a terrible spot. I had a lean on the Bills in this game. The Jets were in the middle of their bad stretch of the season and were on a short week after they barely won vs. the Jaguars. The Bills blew out the Dolphins off their bye week and Rex Ryan had his players motivated like heck. The Jets just came out flat during the first half. But even though the score was 19-3 Bills at some point, the game itself was much closer than people think and the Jets beat themselves in this game with a turnover ratio of 0-4. It was just a terrible spot for them.

    -Brandon Marshall dropped a first down pass in Jets territory that led to a FG: 3-3
    -Devin Smith fumbled the kickoff return for a return TD: 9-3 Bills
    -Missed tackles & poor coverage by Davis on Karlos Williams: 19-3 Bills
    -Chris Ivory fumbled in Jets territory which lead to a FG: 22-3

    After the last score the Jets shut the Bills offense down for 23 minutes and moved the chains for two touchdowns but it wasn't enough. They also had a turnover on downs on 4th and 2 in the Bills' red zone. If Bowles had gone for the FG, this game would have went to overtime! They weren't able to overcome the four turnovers and the poor first half performance.

    The Bills have been motivated but they weren't the better team matchup-wise. When they didn't have a short field, the Jets defense shut them completely down. Tyrod Tailor was scrambling around, he got sacked 6 times. The Bills put ONE single drive of more than 60 yards together, that's it.

    The Jets have been playing consistently on both sides of the ball. They can start fast, they can close out games. This isn't the same old Jets team. Todd Bowles brought a whole new attitude into this organization. Ryan Fitzpatrick has shown very good QB play and Marshall/Decker are the best WR tandem in the league. Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell can punish opposing defenses on the ground and on screen/shuffle passes. This is the 10th best passing offense in DVOA, 2nd best RZ offense, the 6th best scoring offense & the 11th best 3rd down offense. The defense has been STELLAR. They just held the Patriots to 1/10 on third downs and 13 offensive points recently. The pass rush will once again get to Tyrod Tailor and Revis has been playing better since he came back from concussion.

    LeSean McCoy is likely done, Marcell Dareus is doubtful after he had no feeling in his hand on Sunday, Mario Williams has a clinch with Rex Ryan, Stephon Gilmore is out, Nigel Bradham & Charles Clay are Q, Robert Woods is out, Ronald Darby was out last Sunday.

    This already poor playing defense has some serious personnel issues. The Jets are on a roll and they are going to score at will here with the right gameplan. Without McCoy, Woods and probably Clay, I can't see the Bills offense keeping more than 13 points on the board against this Jets defense.

    Summary: if you want to bet the Bills, keep in mind that you are taking the worse team which is banged up and you are relying solely on the hope that the Jets bring another turnover-festival because the motivational speech of Rex Ryan won't be enough. He just doesn't have the personnel to compete with a hot Jets team in their biggest game in four years.

    Don't be a fool, take the better team!
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    New York Jets -3 +105

    This isn't the "same old Jets" team. This isn't the Bills team from 2014. If it was last year, I would sweat my pants but not this time. When Rex Ryan said "maybe we are going to run the ball 40 times a game next year" I knew the Bills won't make the playoffs. Rex is a great motivator and was a great defensive mind at New York, but he doesn't know how to run an offense. He thinks that if his team can pound the ball, he is going to win a lot of Football games. But he isn't able to pay a statistics geek to tell him that there is virtually no correlation between yards per carry and scoring points.

    70% of the winning teams have more total rush yards than their opponent because they milk the clock in the second half and the losing team needs to air it out. That's the whole secret. That's why playoff defenses show low numbers. Total yards just mean NOTHING. The Bills are the number one team in total rushing yards per game but they are far away from the playoffs. A good running game sets up the passing game and sometimes you might see a RB breaking tackles for a 60yd TD. But in the long run you need to pass efficiently to score points. If someone says this is bullsh*t, just go on and I will bomb you with several examples and explanations. Look what the Seahawks and Chiefs do without Lynch and Charles.

    The Bills from 2014 had the best overall defense in the league. They were #1 in pass DVOA and #12 in run DVOA. They had the best pass rush in the league. Rex Ryan turned this defense into complete bullsh*t. Before the Cowboys game they were the #29 total defense in DVOA, #22 in pass and #30 in rush. The Cowboys game was much closer than people think. The Cowboys were moving the chains without Dez Bryant and Kellen Moore at QB AT Buffalo. They have the #18 scoring defense at 21.9 PPG. Their offense looks very good by looking at the numbers (#7 total DVOA) and that's something that made me shaking my head so I took a look deeper, because watching tape tells us a different story. Their offensive efficiency doesn't really translate to their offensive PPG at 22.7 (#13). They have a variance of 10% in their DVOA numbers which is the third-worst value. It means they have been playing VERY inconsistently. Also their PPG are inflated due to two big wins against one of the worst defenses in the league of the Miami Dolphins. The eye-test proves me right: this is an average offense. After reading that stuff, add to that: the Bills have played a below average schedule. The Jets have also played a worse schedule BUT there is one difference: the Jets have a top-5 defense and a top-10 offense scoring wise. That's the difference between a 7-8 and a 10-5 team. The Bills have two quality wins on their schedule: vs. HOU and at NYJ. The latter one is the game I just watched again this morning:

    In week 10, the Bills caught the Jets in a terrible spot. I had a lean on the Bills in this game. The Jets were in the middle of their bad stretch of the season and were on a short week after they barely won vs. the Jaguars. The Bills blew out the Dolphins off their bye week and Rex Ryan had his players motivated like heck. The Jets just came out flat during the first half. But even though the score was 19-3 Bills at some point, the game itself was much closer than people think and the Jets beat themselves in this game with a turnover ratio of 0-4. It was just a terrible spot for them.

    -Brandon Marshall dropped a first down pass in Jets territory that led to a FG: 3-3
    -Devin Smith fumbled the kickoff return for a return TD: 9-3 Bills
    -Missed tackles & poor coverage by Davis on Karlos Williams: 19-3 Bills
    -Chris Ivory fumbled in Jets territory which lead to a FG: 22-3

    After the last score the Jets shut the Bills offense down for 23 minutes and moved the chains for two touchdowns but it wasn't enough. They also had a turnover on downs on 4th and 2 in the Bills' red zone. If Bowles had gone for the FG, this game would have went to overtime! They weren't able to overcome the four turnovers and the poor first half performance.

    The Bills have been motivated but they weren't the better team matchup-wise. When they didn't have a short field, the Jets defense shut them completely down. Tyrod Tailor was scrambling around, he got sacked 6 times. The Bills put ONE single drive of more than 60 yards together, that's it.

    The Jets have been playing consistently on both sides of the ball. They can start fast, they can close out games. This isn't the same old Jets team. Todd Bowles brought a whole new attitude into this organization. Ryan Fitzpatrick has shown very good QB play and Marshall/Decker are the best WR tandem in the league. Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell can punish opposing defenses on the ground and on screen/shuffle passes. This is the 10th best passing offense in DVOA, 2nd best RZ offense, the 6th best scoring offense & the 11th best 3rd down offense. The defense has been STELLAR. They just held the Patriots to 1/10 on third downs and 13 offensive points recently. The pass rush will once again get to Tyrod Tailor and Revis has been playing better since he came back from concussion.

    LeSean McCoy is likely done, Marcell Dareus is doubtful after he had no feeling in his hand on Sunday, Mario Williams has a clinch with Rex Ryan, Stephon Gilmore is out, Nigel Bradham & Charles Clay are Q, Robert Woods is out, Ronald Darby was out last Sunday.

    This already poor playing defense has some serious personnel issues. The Jets are on a roll and they are going to score at will here with the right gameplan. Without McCoy, Woods and probably Clay, I can't see the Bills offense keeping more than 13 points on the board against this Jets defense.

    Summary: if you want to bet the Bills, keep in mind that you are taking the worse team which is banged up and you are relying solely on the hope that the Jets bring another turnover-festival because the motivational speech of Rex Ryan won't be enough. He just doesn't have the personnel to compete with a hot Jets team in their biggest game in four years.

    Don't be a fool, take the better team!
     
    naesiy
    naesiy
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2010
    Posts: 2005
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 8:57 AM ET #3

    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    59-49 ytd


    What's very interesting is that huge underdogs just don't win in the last week. Since 2009, underdogs of more than a TD are 1-36 SU and 13-24 ATS. They are 2-35 on 6-pt-teasers. Since 2008 they are 2-41 SU and so on. These teams don't have motivation to win, they play for the draft pick. So you could look to find some teasing options.



    Good info...falls in line with my thinking.  You wouldn't have quick access to Over/Under numbers would you?  I was thinking more overs could be likely due to the not caring factor...there will be more "exhibition" type games.  Just a thought though...
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    59-49 ytd


    What's very interesting is that huge underdogs just don't win in the last week. Since 2009, underdogs of more than a TD are 1-36 SU and 13-24 ATS. They are 2-35 on 6-pt-teasers. Since 2008 they are 2-41 SU and so on. These teams don't have motivation to win, they play for the draft pick. So you could look to find some teasing options.



    Good info...falls in line with my thinking.  You wouldn't have quick access to Over/Under numbers would you?  I was thinking more overs could be likely due to the not caring factor...there will be more "exhibition" type games.  Just a thought though...
     
    suuma
    suuma
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2010
    Posts: 4455
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 9:04 AM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


    Good info...falls in line with my thinking.  You wouldn't have quick access to Over/Under numbers would you?  I was thinking more overs could be likely due to the not caring factor...there will be more "exhibition" type games.  Just a thought though...


    Week 17 in general since about 1989: O/U: 181-195-7, avg total: 40.8, avg points 42.2

    The above scenario since 2008: O/U: 21-21-1

    Btw. these dogs are getting outscored by 16.2 PPG



    In the sce
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


    Good info...falls in line with my thinking.  You wouldn't have quick access to Over/Under numbers would you?  I was thinking more overs could be likely due to the not caring factor...there will be more "exhibition" type games.  Just a thought though...


    Week 17 in general since about 1989: O/U: 181-195-7, avg total: 40.8, avg points 42.2

    The above scenario since 2008: O/U: 21-21-1

    Btw. these dogs are getting outscored by 16.2 PPG



    In the sce
     
    sports_Network
    sports_Network
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2009
    Posts: 8426
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 9:13 AM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    59-49 ytd


    "What's very interesting is that huge underdogs just don't win in the last week. Since 2009, underdogs of more than a TD are 1-36 SU and 13-24 ATS. They are 2-35 on 6-pt-teasers. Since 2008 they are 2-41 SU and so on. These teams don't have motivation to win, they play for the draft pick. So you could look to find some teasing options"



    Stats worthy of attention, appreciate your effort in bringing them to the forefront of discussion, I see some excellent Teaser advantages for week #17

    As Always, your write-ups are on Q, and loaded with 'recommendation' stats, looking forward to the upcoming playoffs  have a good one

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    59-49 ytd


    "What's very interesting is that huge underdogs just don't win in the last week. Since 2009, underdogs of more than a TD are 1-36 SU and 13-24 ATS. They are 2-35 on 6-pt-teasers. Since 2008 they are 2-41 SU and so on. These teams don't have motivation to win, they play for the draft pick. So you could look to find some teasing options"



    Stats worthy of attention, appreciate your effort in bringing them to the forefront of discussion, I see some excellent Teaser advantages for week #17

    As Always, your write-ups are on Q, and loaded with 'recommendation' stats, looking forward to the upcoming playoffs  have a good one

     
    undermysac
    undermysac
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2014
    Posts: 52180
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 9:25 AM ET #6

    We were typing at the same time...you wrote more

    Good thing I directed my readers to your thread!! Too funny.

    GL this week buddy
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    We were typing at the same time...you wrote more

    Good thing I directed my readers to your thread!! Too funny.

    GL this week buddy
     
    TheHuffNBA
    TheHuffNBA
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2015
    Posts: 97
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 11:03 AM ET #7

    Great, great find on that week 17 stat
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Great, great find on that week 17 stat
     
    Jailbait7127
    Jailbait7127
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2013
    Posts: 6802
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 12:39 PM ET #8

    hey suuma, big play for you or normal? 

    thx again. you provide one of the best write ups on any sports forum. great job. 
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    hey suuma, big play for you or normal? 

    thx again. you provide one of the best write ups on any sports forum. great job. 
     
    scalabrine
    scalabrine
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2006
    Posts: 28221
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 1:14 PM ET #9

    Another great write up Suuma. I would say your best of the season.

    To add to the above:

    Ryan's revenge game was in NY and he won it. Mission accomplished. Motivation is severely watered down in a lost season for the Bills and you are correct in saying, remarkably, that Ryan has severely downgraded this defense.

    I struggled to get through that brutal Cowboys game where I had the Bills ML. Bills looked COMPLETELY unmotivated and the final score of 16-6 did not do it justice. That was a very close game where only a late turnover lead to a TD to skew the result. Bills could not put it in the end zone no matter how much they tried before that against a Cowboys team that installed underachievers and sat stars (ie coaches want to lose respectably).

    And here's another tidbit which points to the Jets winning...


    Ryan came out at his press conference and said the following:


    "I think part of it now looking at the season, we have, this is not the time. You know with, if we are trying to win a more significant game for us. Obviously that would be, you might consider something else. We want him to be the long term solution at the spot, so he has got to learn to protect himself and understand that we need him to be that."

    If they are going to inhibit Taylor's ability to run, they will lose for certain. Even suggesting such a thing publicly and planting a seed in Taylor's head making him throw (not his strength when it's his primary option) is a bad thing.

    There was a 4 game stretch this season where Taylor ran 24 times (low for him on average). Bills went 1-3.

    Also, Mario Williams, an alleged defensive 'big dog' is compeltely nonexistent on defense.

    He played 54 snaps vs the Cowboys and didn't register a single tackle, assisted tackle, hurry or QB pressure of any kind. Zero's on the entire stat line.

    Bills have really struggled down the stretch and to come out with all this motivation in a season that's down the hopper is to gamble on something that won't  be there in full (what is needed to win against this Jets team), especially as players are more than disgruntled with how Rex and his schemes have watered down their defensive stats tremendously. 

    Try to compare this game to Rex returning to his old stomping grounds at MetLife with a healthier team and one that benefited from timely turnovers and in a game where the Bills were more than alive for the playoffs. The two games just don't compare as the Jets come off a highly emotional win, but one where they still control their density and their mission of the playoffs is still not accomplished to counter that.

    I will be backing the Jets with you with a very reasonable line.










    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Another great write up Suuma. I would say your best of the season.

    To add to the above:

    Ryan's revenge game was in NY and he won it. Mission accomplished. Motivation is severely watered down in a lost season for the Bills and you are correct in saying, remarkably, that Ryan has severely downgraded this defense.

    I struggled to get through that brutal Cowboys game where I had the Bills ML. Bills looked COMPLETELY unmotivated and the final score of 16-6 did not do it justice. That was a very close game where only a late turnover lead to a TD to skew the result. Bills could not put it in the end zone no matter how much they tried before that against a Cowboys team that installed underachievers and sat stars (ie coaches want to lose respectably).

    And here's another tidbit which points to the Jets winning...


    Ryan came out at his press conference and said the following:


    "I think part of it now looking at the season, we have, this is not the time. You know with, if we are trying to win a more significant game for us. Obviously that would be, you might consider something else. We want him to be the long term solution at the spot, so he has got to learn to protect himself and understand that we need him to be that."

    If they are going to inhibit Taylor's ability to run, they will lose for certain. Even suggesting such a thing publicly and planting a seed in Taylor's head making him throw (not his strength when it's his primary option) is a bad thing.

    There was a 4 game stretch this season where Taylor ran 24 times (low for him on average). Bills went 1-3.

    Also, Mario Williams, an alleged defensive 'big dog' is compeltely nonexistent on defense.

    He played 54 snaps vs the Cowboys and didn't register a single tackle, assisted tackle, hurry or QB pressure of any kind. Zero's on the entire stat line.

    Bills have really struggled down the stretch and to come out with all this motivation in a season that's down the hopper is to gamble on something that won't  be there in full (what is needed to win against this Jets team), especially as players are more than disgruntled with how Rex and his schemes have watered down their defensive stats tremendously. 

    Try to compare this game to Rex returning to his old stomping grounds at MetLife with a healthier team and one that benefited from timely turnovers and in a game where the Bills were more than alive for the playoffs. The two games just don't compare as the Jets come off a highly emotional win, but one where they still control their density and their mission of the playoffs is still not accomplished to counter that.

    I will be backing the Jets with you with a very reasonable line.










     
    Bucele
    Bucele
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2014
    Posts: 9
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 1:55 PM ET #10

    Great write up Suuma. I have been reading your posted its awesome
    I have a question for you ?
    What is the Jet to play for ? Are they already lock for the playoff spot?Thanks
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Great write up Suuma. I have been reading your posted its awesome
    I have a question for you ?
    What is the Jet to play for ? Are they already lock for the playoff spot?Thanks
     
    arrgy
    arrgy
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 2637
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 2:18 PM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by Bucele:

    Great write up Suuma. I have been reading your posted its awesome
    I have a question for you ?
    What is the Jet to play for ? Are they already lock for the playoff spot?Thanks

    No the Jets need to win to guarantee a playoff spot. They can still get in with a loss, but the Steelers would also have to lose.
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Quote Originally Posted by Bucele:

    Great write up Suuma. I have been reading your posted its awesome
    I have a question for you ?
    What is the Jet to play for ? Are they already lock for the playoff spot?Thanks

    No the Jets need to win to guarantee a playoff spot. They can still get in with a loss, but the Steelers would also have to lose.
     
    Bucele
    Bucele
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2014
    Posts: 9
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 2:34 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by arrgy:


    No the Jets need to win to guarantee a playoff spot. They can still get in with a loss, but the Steelers would also have to lose.


    Thanks ARRGY
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Quote Originally Posted by arrgy:


    No the Jets need to win to guarantee a playoff spot. They can still get in with a loss, but the Steelers would also have to lose.


    Thanks ARRGY
     
    earthWake
    earthWake
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2011
    Posts: 6196
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 2:47 PM ET #13

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
     
    totallypsycho
    totallypsycho
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2014
    Posts: 2185
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 5:10 PM ET #14

    jets are going to lose trust me

    if the bills are so unmotivated unhealthy un-everything WHY DID THE LINE ONLY START AT A PK?! 
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    jets are going to lose trust me

    if the bills are so unmotivated unhealthy un-everything WHY DID THE LINE ONLY START AT A PK?! 
     
    AFNfootballnerd
    AFNfootballnerd
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2012
    Posts: 4050
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 7:06 PM ET #15

    Because they want everybody to pound the jets...the value will be with the bills once the line moves to +3.5 and higher possibly....if jets get a win its gonna be by 3 only or bills win straight up.
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Because they want everybody to pound the jets...the value will be with the bills once the line moves to +3.5 and higher possibly....if jets get a win its gonna be by 3 only or bills win straight up.
     
    acitalianman13
    acitalianman13
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2014
    Posts: 357
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 7:35 PM ET #16

    going big on jets aswell, BOL
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    going big on jets aswell, BOL
     
    BarrelledIn
    BarrelledIn
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2012
    Posts: 1204
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 8:07 PM ET #17

    All that nonsense in that wall of text and not a single word was ever read.

    Based on the -3 spread in Buff, Jets would be -9 vs. the Bills in NY. Jets were -8 vs Tenn. So Tenn is 1 point better than Buff FUKKING LMAO That's how stupid you are.

    The line in the first matchup was Jets -2.5 at home. lol they must have improved 6.5 points. The Westgate advanced line last week was Bills -1.5

    This pick shows you are nothing more than an overreaction Monday public square with zero understanding of the true nature of the NFL or line value.

    Pro tips for everyone that OP doesn't understand:
    -Buy low, sell high
    -Squares bet teams, sharps bet lines

    Jets are at their highest just because they won an OT game vs. Pats. If they lose that game, Bills are probably favored here. OP is also just betting the Jets because they're the Jets, regardless if the line is chit and makes zero sense.

    Thanks for the fade





    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    All that nonsense in that wall of text and not a single word was ever read.

    Based on the -3 spread in Buff, Jets would be -9 vs. the Bills in NY. Jets were -8 vs Tenn. So Tenn is 1 point better than Buff FUKKING LMAO That's how stupid you are.

    The line in the first matchup was Jets -2.5 at home. lol they must have improved 6.5 points. The Westgate advanced line last week was Bills -1.5

    This pick shows you are nothing more than an overreaction Monday public square with zero understanding of the true nature of the NFL or line value.

    Pro tips for everyone that OP doesn't understand:
    -Buy low, sell high
    -Squares bet teams, sharps bet lines

    Jets are at their highest just because they won an OT game vs. Pats. If they lose that game, Bills are probably favored here. OP is also just betting the Jets because they're the Jets, regardless if the line is chit and makes zero sense.

    Thanks for the fade





     
    BarrelledIn
    BarrelledIn
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2012
    Posts: 1204
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 8:13 PM ET #18

    Anyone remember 2 weeks ago Jets struggled to beat Dallas by 3, now they are world beaters. Buff doesn't have motivation to beat a divisional opponent and spoil their season

    lol stupid fat fukk

    This line will close well below 3, probably around 1. No chance sharps don't pick up Buffalo here.




    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Anyone remember 2 weeks ago Jets struggled to beat Dallas by 3, now they are world beaters. Buff doesn't have motivation to beat a divisional opponent and spoil their season

    lol stupid fat fukk

    This line will close well below 3, probably around 1. No chance sharps don't pick up Buffalo here.




     
    Biscuit
    Biscuit
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2007
    Posts: 2409
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 8:23 PM ET #19

    I appreciate the write up.  

    I had the Rams + pts last weekend.   (Too bad I didn't take the ML).    Anyway, I took the Rams because they have been a tough matchup for the Hawks the past few years.   The Rams have a great front 7, and they match up well vs Hawks, who have a mediocre OL.

    Similarly, the Bills seem to match up well vs the Jets.   I'm not sure why, because I don't follow the AFC East teams as much as I follow NFC teams.   But I noticed that the Bills have won 5 of the last 6 meetings vs Jets, by a combined score of 188-76.  

    Why have the Bills been able to dominate the Jets over the past several years?  

    The Jets are the better team, and should be fully focused to win this game.....but the Bills could prove to be a tough opponent, because they possess the confidence that comes with beating a division opponent 5 out of 6 times.

    BOL


    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    I appreciate the write up.  

    I had the Rams + pts last weekend.   (Too bad I didn't take the ML).    Anyway, I took the Rams because they have been a tough matchup for the Hawks the past few years.   The Rams have a great front 7, and they match up well vs Hawks, who have a mediocre OL.

    Similarly, the Bills seem to match up well vs the Jets.   I'm not sure why, because I don't follow the AFC East teams as much as I follow NFC teams.   But I noticed that the Bills have won 5 of the last 6 meetings vs Jets, by a combined score of 188-76.  

    Why have the Bills been able to dominate the Jets over the past several years?  

    The Jets are the better team, and should be fully focused to win this game.....but the Bills could prove to be a tough opponent, because they possess the confidence that comes with beating a division opponent 5 out of 6 times.

    BOL


     
    BETPITTSBURGH
    BETPITTSBURGH
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2015
    Posts: 148
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 10:10 PM ET #20

    Sorry but i just can not see the Jets winning 6 games in a row ..
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Sorry but i just can not see the Jets winning 6 games in a row ..
     
    rakets
    rakets
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2008
    Posts: 94
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 11:17 PM ET #21

    What I don't understand is 1) if you don't agree with Suuma why not just move on to another post and 2) what compels you to berate his pick?  Because you have no following?  Seriously why do these people even come on the thread?  Fricken children who need to have their mama's change their diapers.  Get out of here, I read this non sense because I think someone is making an intelligent point only to find they are bashing.  Like I said, quit wasting my time and get out of here.  Suuma, win or lose on the Jets your handicapping is spot on.  Well done.
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    What I don't understand is 1) if you don't agree with Suuma why not just move on to another post and 2) what compels you to berate his pick?  Because you have no following?  Seriously why do these people even come on the thread?  Fricken children who need to have their mama's change their diapers.  Get out of here, I read this non sense because I think someone is making an intelligent point only to find they are bashing.  Like I said, quit wasting my time and get out of here.  Suuma, win or lose on the Jets your handicapping is spot on.  Well done.
     
    AFNfootballnerd
    AFNfootballnerd
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2012
    Posts: 4050
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2015 - 11:58 PM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by rakets:

    What I don't understand is 1) if you don't agree with Suuma why not just move on to another post and 2) what compels you to berate his pick?  Because you have no following?  Seriously why do these people even come on the thread?  Fricken children who need to have their mama's change their diapers.  Get out of here, I read this non sense because I think someone is making an intelligent point only to find they are bashing.  Like I said, quit wasting my time and get out of here.  Suuma, win or lose on the Jets your handicapping is spot on.  Well done.

    I agree if you disagree on the pic then agree to disagree..if we were in a room discussing this game I'm sure you who disagree wouldn't talk shit like that face to face internet tough guys.
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Quote Originally Posted by rakets:

    What I don't understand is 1) if you don't agree with Suuma why not just move on to another post and 2) what compels you to berate his pick?  Because you have no following?  Seriously why do these people even come on the thread?  Fricken children who need to have their mama's change their diapers.  Get out of here, I read this non sense because I think someone is making an intelligent point only to find they are bashing.  Like I said, quit wasting my time and get out of here.  Suuma, win or lose on the Jets your handicapping is spot on.  Well done.

    I agree if you disagree on the pic then agree to disagree..if we were in a room discussing this game I'm sure you who disagree wouldn't talk shit like that face to face internet tough guys.
     
    fadeORdie
    fadeORdie
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2014
    Posts: 3812
    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 12:51 AM ET #23

    Good to see you finally winning some cash
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Good to see you finally winning some cash
     
    suuma
    suuma
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2010
    Posts: 4455
    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 1:56 AM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

    Stats worthy of attention, appreciate your effort in bringing them to the forefront of discussion, I see some excellent Teaser advantages for week #17

    As Always, your write-ups are on Q, and loaded with 'recommendation' stats, looking forward to the upcoming playoffs  have a good one



    Cannot wait for the playoffs
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

    Stats worthy of attention, appreciate your effort in bringing them to the forefront of discussion, I see some excellent Teaser advantages for week #17

    As Always, your write-ups are on Q, and loaded with 'recommendation' stats, looking forward to the upcoming playoffs  have a good one



    Cannot wait for the playoffs
     
     
    suuma
    suuma
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2010
    Posts: 4455
    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 1:57 AM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    We were typing at the same time...you wrote more

    Good thing I directed my readers to your thread!! Too funny.

    GL this week buddy


    Great minds think alike, haha!! BOL buddy
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    We were typing at the same time...you wrote more

    Good thing I directed my readers to your thread!! Too funny.

    GL this week buddy


    Great minds think alike, haha!! BOL buddy
    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum
    123 ... 567 Next Last»

    Hot Forums IconHot Forum Topics

    • 🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵 445,438 Covers arrow
    • 🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets 253,178 Covers arrow
    • Tuesday 09/08/2026 893 Covers arrow
    • FSU:SMU 2,011 Covers arrow
    • Breathtaking ....truly 20,475 Covers arrow
    • We have picked a terrible time to have the stupidest president ever 26,695 Covers arrow
    • Tuesday 1,606 Covers arrow
    • Week One 5,728 Covers arrow
    • Obviously the true face of the republican party 30,552 Covers arrow
    • NCAA FOOTBALL. 151 15,074 Covers arrow

    Warning - External Link

    Report User

    Thank you for reporting
    This content is abusive or harmful
    This post is spam
    An error has occurred
    This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

    Delete Post

    Are you sure you would like to remove this post?

    Remove Thread

    Are you sure you would like to remove this thread?

    Scan Results

    Login/Register

    Happy to have you join the conversation. To do so, please login or create an account.
    Accounts are free and easy to create.

    Search


    Loading…

    Loading…

    About Us
    Contact Us
    Careers
    Our Team
    Brand
    Testimonials
    Betting Guides
    Sportsbook Reviews
    Betting News
    Podcasts
    Responsible Gambling
    Betting Sites
    US Betting Sites
    Canada Betting Sites
    Canada Casinos
    Best Betting Apps
    Contests
    Streak Survivor
    King of Covers
    Ultimate Race
    Office Pools
    The Covers community has
    810,221
    lifetime members worldwide
    Join our community today
    Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
    Covers is the world
    leader in sports
    betting information.
    21+
    Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
    Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
    YouTube logo
    Facebook logo
    Twitter logo
    Instagram logo
    LinkedIn logo
    Google News logo
    Covers is verified safe by:
    Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
    Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
    If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.