All that nonsense in that wall of text and not a single word was ever read.
Based on the -3 spread in Buff, Jets would be -9 vs. the Bills in NY. Jets were -8 vs Tenn. So Tenn is 1 point better than Buff FUKKING LMAO That's how stupid you are.
The line in the first matchup was Jets -2.5 at home. lol they must have improved 6.5 points. The Westgate advanced line last week was Bills -1.5
This pick shows you are nothing more than an overreaction Monday public square with zero understanding of the true nature of the NFL or line value.
Pro tips for everyone that OP doesn't understand: -Buy low, sell high -Squares bet teams, sharps bet lines
Jets are at their highest just because they won an OT game vs. Pats. If they lose that game, Bills are probably favored here. OP is also just betting the Jets because they're the Jets, regardless if the line is chit and makes zero sense.
Thanks for the fade
I question your understanding of lines. Not trying to be rude. Line shift was absolutely correct given last weeks results. Also it opened at a pk and was bet up to -3. It didnt open at -3. Jets shouldn't even be in this position but pit sh-it the bed vs a defeated ravens.
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Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:
All that nonsense in that wall of text and not a single word was ever read.
Based on the -3 spread in Buff, Jets would be -9 vs. the Bills in NY. Jets were -8 vs Tenn. So Tenn is 1 point better than Buff FUKKING LMAO That's how stupid you are.
The line in the first matchup was Jets -2.5 at home. lol they must have improved 6.5 points. The Westgate advanced line last week was Bills -1.5
This pick shows you are nothing more than an overreaction Monday public square with zero understanding of the true nature of the NFL or line value.
Pro tips for everyone that OP doesn't understand: -Buy low, sell high -Squares bet teams, sharps bet lines
Jets are at their highest just because they won an OT game vs. Pats. If they lose that game, Bills are probably favored here. OP is also just betting the Jets because they're the Jets, regardless if the line is chit and makes zero sense.
Thanks for the fade
I question your understanding of lines. Not trying to be rude. Line shift was absolutely correct given last weeks results. Also it opened at a pk and was bet up to -3. It didnt open at -3. Jets shouldn't even be in this position but pit sh-it the bed vs a defeated ravens.
yo,it appears captain-and-seven has been darn.king you up the ar.se REALY,REALLY hard and you have caught watever filthy,vile,negative contagious disease he possesses and now there are 2 of you worthless but.t-buddies going around where you are not wanted spewing bile and pointless negativity for no good reason.....how does sumone even end up like you??......rap.ed and beaten as a child i guess??...almost without exception i wud have sympathy for sumone that was put in that situation but in your case i'll make an exception
everyones entitled to voice their opinion,no matter how contrary or polarising.....but its just pitiful reading sumones baseless personal insults and degradation of a perfect stranger that is merely tryna help others with his own opinion and information whilst charging nothing and forcing no-one to follow or read.
obviously dont know either of you but i'd be willing to bet that you wudnt say a single feckin thing if you saw suuma face to face...and if you did you'd be the type of snivelling little weasel to end up on the floor flat on your back in a heartbeat.
When trolling a troll what goes through you head? Are you thinking 1) let me show everyone how cool I am by making fun of a guy on the internet 2) i like suuma. we may not actually know eachother but i must defend him 3) if people only knew I was still in high school and on an sports gambling message board?
How people applaud this?
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Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:
yo,it appears captain-and-seven has been darn.king you up the ar.se REALY,REALLY hard and you have caught watever filthy,vile,negative contagious disease he possesses and now there are 2 of you worthless but.t-buddies going around where you are not wanted spewing bile and pointless negativity for no good reason.....how does sumone even end up like you??......rap.ed and beaten as a child i guess??...almost without exception i wud have sympathy for sumone that was put in that situation but in your case i'll make an exception
everyones entitled to voice their opinion,no matter how contrary or polarising.....but its just pitiful reading sumones baseless personal insults and degradation of a perfect stranger that is merely tryna help others with his own opinion and information whilst charging nothing and forcing no-one to follow or read.
obviously dont know either of you but i'd be willing to bet that you wudnt say a single feckin thing if you saw suuma face to face...and if you did you'd be the type of snivelling little weasel to end up on the floor flat on your back in a heartbeat.
When trolling a troll what goes through you head? Are you thinking 1) let me show everyone how cool I am by making fun of a guy on the internet 2) i like suuma. we may not actually know eachother but i must defend him 3) if people only knew I was still in high school and on an sports gambling message board?
You make good points JerryWrasse...This is going to be a close game...what makes it so tough is that the Jets may fall a bit flat out of the gate because of emotional roller coaster NE game...however...god !! Buffalo can't make any stops and there is a lot of upheaval in that dressing room (I live in Toronto and listen to the Buffalo media and it is a garbage show in Buffalo right now )...Gillespe breaks a late one to the house otherwise the Bills looked sick against a rookie QB and a team that has thrown in the towel
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You make good points JerryWrasse...This is going to be a close game...what makes it so tough is that the Jets may fall a bit flat out of the gate because of emotional roller coaster NE game...however...god !! Buffalo can't make any stops and there is a lot of upheaval in that dressing room (I live in Toronto and listen to the Buffalo media and it is a garbage show in Buffalo right now )...Gillespe breaks a late one to the house otherwise the Bills looked sick against a rookie QB and a team that has thrown in the towel
I don't think the pats will have much motivation either...playing a terrible dolphins team, they will probably just relax, knowing they are already in the post season.
I think pats will win but I don't know if they cover or not. Thinking of teasing the dolphins, but not locked into them yet, want to do more research and wait till closer to game time
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I don't think the pats will have much motivation either...playing a terrible dolphins team, they will probably just relax, knowing they are already in the post season.
I think pats will win but I don't know if they cover or not. Thinking of teasing the dolphins, but not locked into them yet, want to do more research and wait till closer to game time
I don't think the pats will have much motivation either...playing a terrible dolphins team, they will probably just relax, knowing they are already in the post season.
I think pats will win but I don't know if they cover or not. Thinking of teasing the dolphins, but not locked into them yet, want to do more research and wait till closer to game time
Give you an example: Week 16 Broncos as sure shots for the playoffs went to Cincinnati as -3 or 4 point favorites and lost the game outright! Week 17 in a meaningless game vs. the Raiders and with the betting public thinking they would take it easy, They blew the f**king doors off of Oakland in that game! Brady and the mad wizzard should be out for blood this week after the coin flip controversy last week! The books are trying to scare people off the Pats with the big spread this week and its working! Pats should win BIG this week!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by mgmprofits:
I don't think the pats will have much motivation either...playing a terrible dolphins team, they will probably just relax, knowing they are already in the post season.
I think pats will win but I don't know if they cover or not. Thinking of teasing the dolphins, but not locked into them yet, want to do more research and wait till closer to game time
Give you an example: Week 16 Broncos as sure shots for the playoffs went to Cincinnati as -3 or 4 point favorites and lost the game outright! Week 17 in a meaningless game vs. the Raiders and with the betting public thinking they would take it easy, They blew the f**king doors off of Oakland in that game! Brady and the mad wizzard should be out for blood this week after the coin flip controversy last week! The books are trying to scare people off the Pats with the big spread this week and its working! Pats should win BIG this week!!!
Give you an example: Week 16 Broncos as sure shots for the playoffs went to Cincinnati as -3 or 4 point favorites and lost the game outright! Week 17 in a meaningless game vs. the Raiders and with the betting public thinking they would take it easy, They blew the f**king doors off of Oakland in that game! Brady and the mad wizzard should be out for blood this week after the coin flip controversy last week! The books are trying to scare people off the Pats with the big spread this week and its working! Pats should win BIG this week!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by Targa1:
Give you an example: Week 16 Broncos as sure shots for the playoffs went to Cincinnati as -3 or 4 point favorites and lost the game outright! Week 17 in a meaningless game vs. the Raiders and with the betting public thinking they would take it easy, They blew the f**king doors off of Oakland in that game! Brady and the mad wizzard should be out for blood this week after the coin flip controversy last week! The books are trying to scare people off the Pats with the big spread this week and its working! Pats should win BIG this week!!!
I don't think the pats will have much motivation either...playing a terrible dolphins team, they will probably just relax, knowing they are already in the post season.
I think pats will win but I don't know if they cover or not. Thinking of teasing the dolphins, but not locked into them yet, want to do more research and wait till closer to game time
I would have layed ne -9. Not quite as confident at 10.5. Dolphins season was over before they ever played a game. Don't see any reason for the to show up. On the other side NE has everything to play for. A few things to note ne has already secured a bye. Since 2011 teams coming off a playoff bye are 6-10 ats. NE taking it easy in this spot would set them for a very rough divisional payoff game. Over that same time span NE is 3-1 both su and ats in wk 17.
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Quote Originally Posted by mgmprofits:
I don't think the pats will have much motivation either...playing a terrible dolphins team, they will probably just relax, knowing they are already in the post season.
I think pats will win but I don't know if they cover or not. Thinking of teasing the dolphins, but not locked into them yet, want to do more research and wait till closer to game time
I would have layed ne -9. Not quite as confident at 10.5. Dolphins season was over before they ever played a game. Don't see any reason for the to show up. On the other side NE has everything to play for. A few things to note ne has already secured a bye. Since 2011 teams coming off a playoff bye are 6-10 ats. NE taking it easy in this spot would set them for a very rough divisional payoff game. Over that same time span NE is 3-1 both su and ats in wk 17.
Nice write-up as usual Suuma, I hesitate to bet the Jets in this spot, but I do like all the stats from this season you are using to back up your decision to get behind the Jets.
I don't know what it is but this game makes me think of the PIT/BAL game last week, where PIT was in a "must win" type game and were clearly better, and not only did they not cover the massive spread, they lost S/U to a team that knows them and always plays them tough. Same thing with SEA/STL...SEA not as much of a must win, but still a massive spread, and lost S/U to a team that clearly isn't as good/hot, but knows them well.
The Bills already beat the Jets this year, and they have won 5 of their last 6 meetings. They have nothing to play for (just like BAL and STL last week, and yet both of those teams found a way to win against teams that were motivated and needed wins). These 2 teams play each a lot, and if anyone knows how to exploit the Jets defense it should be Rex.
There is little incentive to play for a coach if you know that coach is gone at the end of the season. If Rex had NOT been assured recently of being the HC next season, I would have bought into the players not rallying around him. As it stands though, Rex is back and all of a sudden those players need to step up and leave a lasting impression in a game that they know has personal significance to Rex. What better way to get on his good side and solidify a starting spot next year than to play with extra motivation this week and get your coach a win against his former team?
On paper the Jets look like the superior team, and they should have no trouble dispatching the Bills, but something is telling me to stay away from this game. Good luck on this one!
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Nice write-up as usual Suuma, I hesitate to bet the Jets in this spot, but I do like all the stats from this season you are using to back up your decision to get behind the Jets.
I don't know what it is but this game makes me think of the PIT/BAL game last week, where PIT was in a "must win" type game and were clearly better, and not only did they not cover the massive spread, they lost S/U to a team that knows them and always plays them tough. Same thing with SEA/STL...SEA not as much of a must win, but still a massive spread, and lost S/U to a team that clearly isn't as good/hot, but knows them well.
The Bills already beat the Jets this year, and they have won 5 of their last 6 meetings. They have nothing to play for (just like BAL and STL last week, and yet both of those teams found a way to win against teams that were motivated and needed wins). These 2 teams play each a lot, and if anyone knows how to exploit the Jets defense it should be Rex.
There is little incentive to play for a coach if you know that coach is gone at the end of the season. If Rex had NOT been assured recently of being the HC next season, I would have bought into the players not rallying around him. As it stands though, Rex is back and all of a sudden those players need to step up and leave a lasting impression in a game that they know has personal significance to Rex. What better way to get on his good side and solidify a starting spot next year than to play with extra motivation this week and get your coach a win against his former team?
On paper the Jets look like the superior team, and they should have no trouble dispatching the Bills, but something is telling me to stay away from this game. Good luck on this one!
I always try to avoid inefficient passing offenses, but this time I might take the Niners, because their opponent is an inefficient passing offense. Losing teams off an upset vs. a 8+ win team the week prior are 7-18 ATS in week 17, losing by 3 PPG. Is it a weird trend? Not at all. It tells you that teams come out flat in the last week if they are satisfied off an upset in week 16. The Rams had their personal Super Bowl last week. You could see it when they celebrated a TD in a for them "meaningless" game. They wanted to beat the Seahawks and went all in. This week they have another travel to beat the lousy Niners whom they already beat 27-6. I don't believe they care about this game and their preparation won't be 100% focused.
Another great advantage for SF bettors is that there is a significant home/road difference between these two teams. Here are some key facts:
SF Road defense PPG: 29.4 #31 SF Home defense PPG: 17.1 #10
We all know the Rams need a big game from Todd Gurley to make ANYTHING happen through the air. The Niners are holding opponents to an average of 3.3 YPC at home which is the 4th-best number in the league.
The Niners have a significant home advantage on their stupid turf in Levi's stadium. They made several offenses look vulnerable like Packers, Cards, Seahawks, Falcons, Vikings, Bengals. The Rams are the worst offense they will be facing all year long at home. This Niners team has been playing with a chip on their shoulder all season long and I believe this is one of those teams that doesn't focus on the draft pick. Currently they are holding the 5th pick with the highest SOS. If they win, they could go to the 8th pick if Fins, Jags & Ravens lose out. But they cannot go below the 5th pick, no possibility. So I guess they are fine with a pick between 5 and 8 and will bring a huge effort on Sunday to close out the season.
The Rams will look none-dimensional on offense while also coming out flat. There is a chance this is going to be a shutout but I cannot see them scor more than 10 points here which should seal the deal for a Niners win and cover. Going to wait for better juice on +3.5, otherwise I will be taking the +3 at plus money.
I agree w/ a lot of points and angles here. A let down is looming, and that turf issue is legit at that stadium.
But what are your thoughts of the new O coordinator Suuma? Rams have been way more efficient since they fired Cignetti.
Keenum's DYAR is 43, QBR of 44.6, 4 TD to 1 INT, 61.4% comp.
Not world beating #'s. But compare this to...
Foles DYAR is -377, QBR of 30, 7 TD's to 10 INT's, 56.9% comp.
I got a feeling in my teeth that the Rams might be one of those teams that close out the season on a 4 game win streak and carry over that mojo into next season. The firing of the offensive coordinator might have saved Fischer his job.
But like you said, will they get up for this game after that beating of the rams?
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Rams @ Niners
I always try to avoid inefficient passing offenses, but this time I might take the Niners, because their opponent is an inefficient passing offense. Losing teams off an upset vs. a 8+ win team the week prior are 7-18 ATS in week 17, losing by 3 PPG. Is it a weird trend? Not at all. It tells you that teams come out flat in the last week if they are satisfied off an upset in week 16. The Rams had their personal Super Bowl last week. You could see it when they celebrated a TD in a for them "meaningless" game. They wanted to beat the Seahawks and went all in. This week they have another travel to beat the lousy Niners whom they already beat 27-6. I don't believe they care about this game and their preparation won't be 100% focused.
Another great advantage for SF bettors is that there is a significant home/road difference between these two teams. Here are some key facts:
SF Road defense PPG: 29.4 #31 SF Home defense PPG: 17.1 #10
We all know the Rams need a big game from Todd Gurley to make ANYTHING happen through the air. The Niners are holding opponents to an average of 3.3 YPC at home which is the 4th-best number in the league.
The Niners have a significant home advantage on their stupid turf in Levi's stadium. They made several offenses look vulnerable like Packers, Cards, Seahawks, Falcons, Vikings, Bengals. The Rams are the worst offense they will be facing all year long at home. This Niners team has been playing with a chip on their shoulder all season long and I believe this is one of those teams that doesn't focus on the draft pick. Currently they are holding the 5th pick with the highest SOS. If they win, they could go to the 8th pick if Fins, Jags & Ravens lose out. But they cannot go below the 5th pick, no possibility. So I guess they are fine with a pick between 5 and 8 and will bring a huge effort on Sunday to close out the season.
The Rams will look none-dimensional on offense while also coming out flat. There is a chance this is going to be a shutout but I cannot see them scor more than 10 points here which should seal the deal for a Niners win and cover. Going to wait for better juice on +3.5, otherwise I will be taking the +3 at plus money.
I agree w/ a lot of points and angles here. A let down is looming, and that turf issue is legit at that stadium.
But what are your thoughts of the new O coordinator Suuma? Rams have been way more efficient since they fired Cignetti.
Keenum's DYAR is 43, QBR of 44.6, 4 TD to 1 INT, 61.4% comp.
Not world beating #'s. But compare this to...
Foles DYAR is -377, QBR of 30, 7 TD's to 10 INT's, 56.9% comp.
I got a feeling in my teeth that the Rams might be one of those teams that close out the season on a 4 game win streak and carry over that mojo into next season. The firing of the offensive coordinator might have saved Fischer his job.
But like you said, will they get up for this game after that beating of the rams?
Bills fan here. Suuma is right.. The bills have SO many important injuries. You don't see it in the Dallas result, but Kellen Moore moved the ball fairly easily vs the defense but only due to some bad penalties and poor throws did drives stall. I am not jumping on Jets -3 unless Darby is ruled out, if he is, the bills do not have anyone who can remotely cover Marshall. If Dareus is out then there is no one who can stop the run with him, Carrington, and Williams out. Because the bills offense is "ok" and Rex really wants his game and it's in Buffalo, I'd rather place my money on the over or tease both
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Bills fan here. Suuma is right.. The bills have SO many important injuries. You don't see it in the Dallas result, but Kellen Moore moved the ball fairly easily vs the defense but only due to some bad penalties and poor throws did drives stall. I am not jumping on Jets -3 unless Darby is ruled out, if he is, the bills do not have anyone who can remotely cover Marshall. If Dareus is out then there is no one who can stop the run with him, Carrington, and Williams out. Because the bills offense is "ok" and Rex really wants his game and it's in Buffalo, I'd rather place my money on the over or tease both
When trolling a troll what goes through you head? Are you thinking 1) let me show everyone how cool I am by making fun of a guy on the internet 2) i like suuma. we may not actually know eachother but i must defend him 3) if people only knew I was still in high school and on an sports gambling message board?
How people applaud this?
"troll"??...wat the fu.kk is a troll??is that the word du jour at the moment so you just feel the need to parrot it at every available opportunity like sum brainless feckin programmed robot??...i gave my opinion on wat that other idiot had to say,which wasnt useful or constructive in the way he phrased it with personal attacks..so replied in kind in the only way a piece of shiit like him understands...now,again wat the fu.kk is a "troll"??
1)the fact that you think you can be seen as "cool" by typing things on the internet to other strangers says a whole lot more about your mindset than anything that you imagine it says about me...wasnt making fun of him,just stating my opinion on his conduct..so dont project that crap onto me.
2)i have no idea whether or not i like suuma,never met him...from wat i read he seems like a perfectly reasonable,likable guy but who knows?...again,another scenario that youve dreamed up there....wasnt defending him in the slightest,simply calling out the kno.b-end spewing negative,pointless trash..too much of it goes on around here.
3)"high school" as you call it was so long ago for me i cant even remember it
4)the fact you got a got a picture of a thieving rap.ist says all we need to know about you.
hopefully ya dont think im "making fun" of you in any way cos that wud make me feel soooooo "cool".....okay,back to "trolling" for me now...wat the hell are you,13 years old??and having a crack about sumone else being in high school.
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Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:
When trolling a troll what goes through you head? Are you thinking 1) let me show everyone how cool I am by making fun of a guy on the internet 2) i like suuma. we may not actually know eachother but i must defend him 3) if people only knew I was still in high school and on an sports gambling message board?
How people applaud this?
"troll"??...wat the fu.kk is a troll??is that the word du jour at the moment so you just feel the need to parrot it at every available opportunity like sum brainless feckin programmed robot??...i gave my opinion on wat that other idiot had to say,which wasnt useful or constructive in the way he phrased it with personal attacks..so replied in kind in the only way a piece of shiit like him understands...now,again wat the fu.kk is a "troll"??
1)the fact that you think you can be seen as "cool" by typing things on the internet to other strangers says a whole lot more about your mindset than anything that you imagine it says about me...wasnt making fun of him,just stating my opinion on his conduct..so dont project that crap onto me.
2)i have no idea whether or not i like suuma,never met him...from wat i read he seems like a perfectly reasonable,likable guy but who knows?...again,another scenario that youve dreamed up there....wasnt defending him in the slightest,simply calling out the kno.b-end spewing negative,pointless trash..too much of it goes on around here.
3)"high school" as you call it was so long ago for me i cant even remember it
4)the fact you got a got a picture of a thieving rap.ist says all we need to know about you.
hopefully ya dont think im "making fun" of you in any way cos that wud make me feel soooooo "cool".....okay,back to "trolling" for me now...wat the hell are you,13 years old??and having a crack about sumone else being in high school.
"troll"??...wat the fu.kk is a troll??is that the word du jour at the moment so you just feel the need to parrot it at every available opportunity like sum brainless feckin programmed robot??...i gave my opinion on wat that other idiot had to say,which wasnt useful or constructive in the way he phrased it with personal attacks..so replied in kind in the only way a piece of shiit like him understands...now,again wat the fu.kk is a "troll"??
Point proven. Please post a link to a thread where you offered something insightful. Would be interested in reading you thoughts related to sports betting.
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Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:
"troll"??...wat the fu.kk is a troll??is that the word du jour at the moment so you just feel the need to parrot it at every available opportunity like sum brainless feckin programmed robot??...i gave my opinion on wat that other idiot had to say,which wasnt useful or constructive in the way he phrased it with personal attacks..so replied in kind in the only way a piece of shiit like him understands...now,again wat the fu.kk is a "troll"??
Point proven. Please post a link to a thread where you offered something insightful. Would be interested in reading you thoughts related to sports betting.
I never said demons control my thoughts. I don't even believe in demons if I used that word it was so other people could understand, as most people are religious.
I'm the most normal person you'd ever meet. He has never met me, so he doesn't know me at all. He just goes by what I say. I was probably just friggin with him if I said something about demons.
LOL!
And no I don't self mutilate myself. I ask anyone who is interested, to do a search on Paranormal scratches, they are very real. Go to youtube and search and watch the videos for proof that he is lying.
You can see in the videos, the people record the scratches while they happen so you can see it's real. Then you'll know this guy is full of garbage.
Ever since I got the black tourmaline I haven't been scratched.
It protects against spiritual and psychic attacks.
But yes, they do work, because I used to get scratched 2 to 3x a week, now not ever. If I was self mutilating, then I'd still have scratches. Obviously a stone isn't going to protect you from yourself. lol
Paranormal Scratches are real.
They just appear out of nowhere.
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Quote Originally Posted by mgmprofits:
I never said demons control my thoughts. I don't even believe in demons if I used that word it was so other people could understand, as most people are religious.
I'm the most normal person you'd ever meet. He has never met me, so he doesn't know me at all. He just goes by what I say. I was probably just friggin with him if I said something about demons.
LOL!
And no I don't self mutilate myself. I ask anyone who is interested, to do a search on Paranormal scratches, they are very real. Go to youtube and search and watch the videos for proof that he is lying.
You can see in the videos, the people record the scratches while they happen so you can see it's real. Then you'll know this guy is full of garbage.
Ever since I got the black tourmaline I haven't been scratched.
It protects against spiritual and psychic attacks.
But yes, they do work, because I used to get scratched 2 to 3x a week, now not ever. If I was self mutilating, then I'd still have scratches. Obviously a stone isn't going to protect you from yourself. lol
You really think that Rex wont want to make it as hard as possible for the Jets to make the playoffs? Could be wrong but think if Jets lose and Pitts win Jets are out, no? He seems like type of guy that sticking to last team he coached would be as good as making playoffs. As a Jets fan hope I am wrong.
Either way great write up suuma
It doesn't matter how hard he wants to take it to the Jets. He doesn't have the personnel, the team chemistry, the undivided loyalty of his players to him (after his defensive schemes took their numbers into an abyss) and all of that adds up to a close game, but a loss on his part in the end.
He'd love to beat the Jets twice. But after he came out and publicly said he doesn't want Taylor to run as much, he pretty much is conceding an all out 'win at all costs' affair here.
Now that could be a bait and switch but it makes perfect sense. The Bills season is over and to jeopardize a pretty solid QB just to take out the Jets (something he already did in a better place, his old stomping grounds when it mattered) would be foolish.
This doesn't even speak to the fact the Jets have the superior team offensively and defensively, are on a roll and are in a triple revenge spot (Having gotten hammered by the Bills three straight times in embarrassing fashion). That is tongue in cheek somewhat but its time to take out the Bills and the perfect time to do it is when their playoff life is on the line.
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Quote Originally Posted by benhogan76:
You really think that Rex wont want to make it as hard as possible for the Jets to make the playoffs? Could be wrong but think if Jets lose and Pitts win Jets are out, no? He seems like type of guy that sticking to last team he coached would be as good as making playoffs. As a Jets fan hope I am wrong.
Either way great write up suuma
It doesn't matter how hard he wants to take it to the Jets. He doesn't have the personnel, the team chemistry, the undivided loyalty of his players to him (after his defensive schemes took their numbers into an abyss) and all of that adds up to a close game, but a loss on his part in the end.
He'd love to beat the Jets twice. But after he came out and publicly said he doesn't want Taylor to run as much, he pretty much is conceding an all out 'win at all costs' affair here.
Now that could be a bait and switch but it makes perfect sense. The Bills season is over and to jeopardize a pretty solid QB just to take out the Jets (something he already did in a better place, his old stomping grounds when it mattered) would be foolish.
This doesn't even speak to the fact the Jets have the superior team offensively and defensively, are on a roll and are in a triple revenge spot (Having gotten hammered by the Bills three straight times in embarrassing fashion). That is tongue in cheek somewhat but its time to take out the Bills and the perfect time to do it is when their playoff life is on the line.
Point proven. Please post a link to a thread where you offered something insightful. Would be interested in reading you thoughts related to sports betting.
i generally only offer opinion on nba basketball ocassionally cos its the only sport that i know...it wud be pretty moronic for me to go around telling others wat to bet on in nfl or nhl when i dont even watch or follow the sports a whole lot now,wudnt it??......no,im not going to give you any links to threads,if youre so desperate to track me then get off your a.rse and do it yourself.
to summarise,i dont preach on who to back specifically or wat factors are important in a game in terms of gambling cos i know about as much about beating the books long term as you do....a big,fat zero.
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Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:
Point proven. Please post a link to a thread where you offered something insightful. Would be interested in reading you thoughts related to sports betting.
i generally only offer opinion on nba basketball ocassionally cos its the only sport that i know...it wud be pretty moronic for me to go around telling others wat to bet on in nfl or nhl when i dont even watch or follow the sports a whole lot now,wudnt it??......no,im not going to give you any links to threads,if youre so desperate to track me then get off your a.rse and do it yourself.
to summarise,i dont preach on who to back specifically or wat factors are important in a game in terms of gambling cos i know about as much about beating the books long term as you do....a big,fat zero.
Suuma, great work.......besides the Dolphins and Ravens, would you think that the "Week 17 big underdog" theory might also work with Houston vs the Jags and Indy (assuming Hasselbeck here) vs Titans?
Am surprised that the opening line on Houston is only -6......was expecting a bigger number.
Good question. I think big underdogs of 7+ points in week 17 say the teams are weak, so they are losing teams on the season. That's what my point is about. They aren't going to make the playoffs so you have to decide whether they want to secure their draft pick or play for pride or any kind of motivation.
I guess the motivational angle is an important one in week 17.
Regarding the Texans game: Texans are 98% in the playoffs. Will they bring all the effort or will they try to rest some players in the 2nd half? I guess the Jags are fine with their 7th draft pick. They desperately need it. So I wouldn't touch this game at all but would rather take Texans if I had to.
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Quote Originally Posted by TheHuffNBA:
Suuma, great work.......besides the Dolphins and Ravens, would you think that the "Week 17 big underdog" theory might also work with Houston vs the Jags and Indy (assuming Hasselbeck here) vs Titans?
Am surprised that the opening line on Houston is only -6......was expecting a bigger number.
Good question. I think big underdogs of 7+ points in week 17 say the teams are weak, so they are losing teams on the season. That's what my point is about. They aren't going to make the playoffs so you have to decide whether they want to secure their draft pick or play for pride or any kind of motivation.
I guess the motivational angle is an important one in week 17.
Regarding the Texans game: Texans are 98% in the playoffs. Will they bring all the effort or will they try to rest some players in the 2nd half? I guess the Jags are fine with their 7th draft pick. They desperately need it. So I wouldn't touch this game at all but would rather take Texans if I had to.
Jets line opened at a pick and quickly went to - 3. Pinnacle opened at 1.5 a few minutes after cris. Someone must really like the Jets. For them it's simple win and you earn the right to play another week.
Don't bet this game thinking the Bills already blew their wade and won't show up. Jets coming off a huge, and physical win, against NE. Rex would love nothing more than to play the roll of the spoiler. I give the mental advantage to Buffalo.
Buff has won the l4 vs nyj. Whats that saying "give me mine and i'll beat yours, give me yours and i'll beat mine"? Rex may have turned the Bills def to shi.t but who knows nyj personnel better? And who exactly have the jets beaten? For some reason ne isn't that impressive. Dolphins, Giants, Titans, Cowboys?
Would love to see a stat on qb vs former team, coach vs former team at home, and coach vs former team on road.
Buffalo had no shot against NE, Jets were even in the first game and dominated the second.
Both teams have blown out the lousy Dolphins.
Buffalo got dominated by NYG while the Jets pulled off a OT thriller. If you watched the game you have noticed that the Jets have earned that win and Giants got some lucky breaks during the game.
Bills struggled to beat the Titans by 1 in a game in which they were outgained and just gained 209 total yards. Jets almost shut the Titans out, manhandling them 30-8 in a rout.
Both teams struggled against the Cowboys.
So even in the games against common opponents, the Jets looked clearly like the better team.
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Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:
Jets line opened at a pick and quickly went to - 3. Pinnacle opened at 1.5 a few minutes after cris. Someone must really like the Jets. For them it's simple win and you earn the right to play another week.
Don't bet this game thinking the Bills already blew their wade and won't show up. Jets coming off a huge, and physical win, against NE. Rex would love nothing more than to play the roll of the spoiler. I give the mental advantage to Buffalo.
Buff has won the l4 vs nyj. Whats that saying "give me mine and i'll beat yours, give me yours and i'll beat mine"? Rex may have turned the Bills def to shi.t but who knows nyj personnel better? And who exactly have the jets beaten? For some reason ne isn't that impressive. Dolphins, Giants, Titans, Cowboys?
Would love to see a stat on qb vs former team, coach vs former team at home, and coach vs former team on road.
Buffalo had no shot against NE, Jets were even in the first game and dominated the second.
Both teams have blown out the lousy Dolphins.
Buffalo got dominated by NYG while the Jets pulled off a OT thriller. If you watched the game you have noticed that the Jets have earned that win and Giants got some lucky breaks during the game.
Bills struggled to beat the Titans by 1 in a game in which they were outgained and just gained 209 total yards. Jets almost shut the Titans out, manhandling them 30-8 in a rout.
Both teams struggled against the Cowboys.
So even in the games against common opponents, the Jets looked clearly like the better team.
Nice write-up as usual Suuma, I hesitate to bet the Jets in this spot, but I do like all the stats from this season you are using to back up your decision to get behind the Jets.
I don't know what it is but this game makes me think of the PIT/BAL game last week, where PIT was in a "must win" type game and were clearly better, and not only did they not cover the massive spread, they lost S/U to a team that knows them and always plays them tough. Same thing with SEA/STL...SEA not as much of a must win, but still a massive spread, and lost S/U to a team that clearly isn't as good/hot, but knows them well.
The Bills already beat the Jets this year, and they have won 5 of their last 6 meetings. They have nothing to play for (just like BAL and STL last week, and yet both of those teams found a way to win against teams that were motivated and needed wins). These 2 teams play each a lot, and if anyone knows how to exploit the Jets defense it should be Rex.
There is little incentive to play for a coach if you know that coach is gone at the end of the season. If Rex had NOT been assured recently of being the HC next season, I would have bought into the players not rallying around him. As it stands though, Rex is back and all of a sudden those players need to step up and leave a lasting impression in a game that they know has personal significance to Rex. What better way to get on his good side and solidify a starting spot next year than to play with extra motivation this week and get your coach a win against his former team?
On paper the Jets look like the superior team, and they should have no trouble dispatching the Bills, but something is telling me to stay away from this game. Good luck on this one!
Thanks for your post. While I agree on most of the things you have mentioned, I strongly disagree on the bold sentence. Rex Ryan doesn't know how to exploit ANY defense. He didn't know how to exploit the Jets defense in the first game. I believe he tells Greg Roman "Just pound the ball in the first place to show the world we are playing Rex Ryan style. The rest is up to you".
The reason the Rams have upset the Seahawks isn't just motivation. It's because they match up brilliantly with the Hawks. Before the season started I predicted a sweep by the Rams over the Seahawks on here. The great matchup in the trenches combined with the injuries on the Hawks team and the movitational angle made this upset look logically.
I am still shocked by the Ravens upset. It was their Super Bowl and I believe the Steelers have just prepared wrong on defense. Marc Trestman has put a phenomenal preparation together for Ryan Mallett and they went balling the whole game.
I get all your points on the Bills game, it's just that even IF Rex Ryan gets this squad on his side after what happened during the last weeks, he still doesn't have the personnel to bring up a perfect gameplan for this Jets team.
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Quote Originally Posted by Humchucker:
Nice write-up as usual Suuma, I hesitate to bet the Jets in this spot, but I do like all the stats from this season you are using to back up your decision to get behind the Jets.
I don't know what it is but this game makes me think of the PIT/BAL game last week, where PIT was in a "must win" type game and were clearly better, and not only did they not cover the massive spread, they lost S/U to a team that knows them and always plays them tough. Same thing with SEA/STL...SEA not as much of a must win, but still a massive spread, and lost S/U to a team that clearly isn't as good/hot, but knows them well.
The Bills already beat the Jets this year, and they have won 5 of their last 6 meetings. They have nothing to play for (just like BAL and STL last week, and yet both of those teams found a way to win against teams that were motivated and needed wins). These 2 teams play each a lot, and if anyone knows how to exploit the Jets defense it should be Rex.
There is little incentive to play for a coach if you know that coach is gone at the end of the season. If Rex had NOT been assured recently of being the HC next season, I would have bought into the players not rallying around him. As it stands though, Rex is back and all of a sudden those players need to step up and leave a lasting impression in a game that they know has personal significance to Rex. What better way to get on his good side and solidify a starting spot next year than to play with extra motivation this week and get your coach a win against his former team?
On paper the Jets look like the superior team, and they should have no trouble dispatching the Bills, but something is telling me to stay away from this game. Good luck on this one!
Thanks for your post. While I agree on most of the things you have mentioned, I strongly disagree on the bold sentence. Rex Ryan doesn't know how to exploit ANY defense. He didn't know how to exploit the Jets defense in the first game. I believe he tells Greg Roman "Just pound the ball in the first place to show the world we are playing Rex Ryan style. The rest is up to you".
The reason the Rams have upset the Seahawks isn't just motivation. It's because they match up brilliantly with the Hawks. Before the season started I predicted a sweep by the Rams over the Seahawks on here. The great matchup in the trenches combined with the injuries on the Hawks team and the movitational angle made this upset look logically.
I am still shocked by the Ravens upset. It was their Super Bowl and I believe the Steelers have just prepared wrong on defense. Marc Trestman has put a phenomenal preparation together for Ryan Mallett and they went balling the whole game.
I get all your points on the Bills game, it's just that even IF Rex Ryan gets this squad on his side after what happened during the last weeks, he still doesn't have the personnel to bring up a perfect gameplan for this Jets team.
I agree w/ a lot of points and angles here. A let down is looming, and that turf issue is legit at that stadium.
But what are your thoughts of the new O coordinator Suuma? Rams have been way more efficient since they fired Cignetti.
Keenum's DYAR is 43, QBR of 44.6, 4 TD to 1 INT, 61.4% comp.
Not world beating #'s. But compare this to...
Foles DYAR is -377, QBR of 30, 7 TD's to 10 INT's, 56.9% comp.
I got a feeling in my teeth that the Rams might be one of those teams that close out the season on a 4 game win streak and carry over that mojo into next season. The firing of the offensive coordinator might have saved Fischer his job.
But like you said, will they get up for this game after that beating of the rams?
Before the season I was high on Cignetti because his plans matched up well with the strengths of Nick Foles but I guess he was also overestimating this offensive line.
After the OC change, this offense looks closer to what I thought was their potential, being an average offense. BUT: against DET and SEA they got a defensive TD. So their scoring output isn't enough for me to believe they are going to be successful against this Niners team on the road.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
I agree w/ a lot of points and angles here. A let down is looming, and that turf issue is legit at that stadium.
But what are your thoughts of the new O coordinator Suuma? Rams have been way more efficient since they fired Cignetti.
Keenum's DYAR is 43, QBR of 44.6, 4 TD to 1 INT, 61.4% comp.
Not world beating #'s. But compare this to...
Foles DYAR is -377, QBR of 30, 7 TD's to 10 INT's, 56.9% comp.
I got a feeling in my teeth that the Rams might be one of those teams that close out the season on a 4 game win streak and carry over that mojo into next season. The firing of the offensive coordinator might have saved Fischer his job.
But like you said, will they get up for this game after that beating of the rams?
Before the season I was high on Cignetti because his plans matched up well with the strengths of Nick Foles but I guess he was also overestimating this offensive line.
After the OC change, this offense looks closer to what I thought was their potential, being an average offense. BUT: against DET and SEA they got a defensive TD. So their scoring output isn't enough for me to believe they are going to be successful against this Niners team on the road.
Bills fan here. Suuma is right.. The bills have SO many important injuries. You don't see it in the Dallas result, but Kellen Moore moved the ball fairly easily vs the defense but only due to some bad penalties and poor throws did drives stall. I am not jumping on Jets -3 unless Darby is ruled out, if he is, the bills do not have anyone who can remotely cover Marshall. If Dareus is out then there is no one who can stop the run with him, Carrington, and Williams out. Because the bills offense is "ok" and Rex really wants his game and it's in Buffalo, I'd rather place my money on the over or tease both
Thanks for your post. It looks like Darby would be playing. But I don't think he is the key to contain the Jets offense when the front-seven can't get pressure on Fitzpatrick. Also at 5'11" he doesn't have enough height to beat Marshall consistently. A lot of CBs struggled to do this like Vontae Davis, Brent Grimes or Joe Haden who have the same height than Darby.
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Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear:
Bills fan here. Suuma is right.. The bills have SO many important injuries. You don't see it in the Dallas result, but Kellen Moore moved the ball fairly easily vs the defense but only due to some bad penalties and poor throws did drives stall. I am not jumping on Jets -3 unless Darby is ruled out, if he is, the bills do not have anyone who can remotely cover Marshall. If Dareus is out then there is no one who can stop the run with him, Carrington, and Williams out. Because the bills offense is "ok" and Rex really wants his game and it's in Buffalo, I'd rather place my money on the over or tease both
Thanks for your post. It looks like Darby would be playing. But I don't think he is the key to contain the Jets offense when the front-seven can't get pressure on Fitzpatrick. Also at 5'11" he doesn't have enough height to beat Marshall consistently. A lot of CBs struggled to do this like Vontae Davis, Brent Grimes or Joe Haden who have the same height than Darby.
Because they want everybody to pound the jets...the value will be with the bills once the line moves to +3.5 and higher possibly....if jets get a win its gonna be by 3 only or bills win straight up.
Summa. Much respect. However, I have to agree with AFN here. Jets are not a very good road team this year and have been very unimpressive on the road all year except ( Miami london) They give up close to 27 pure points per game on defense during their last 4 road series and their offense is average at 17 pppg. Buffalo counters that with a 22 pppg home offense in their last 4 game home series and carry the better home defense by by 8 pppg (19)
Buffalo wins this one wins it big and knocks Jets out of the playoffs Lets forget the Rex Ryan angle in this game. The players on the field for Buffalo are the better team @ home than the Jets are on the road in this game.
bol..
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Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:
Because they want everybody to pound the jets...the value will be with the bills once the line moves to +3.5 and higher possibly....if jets get a win its gonna be by 3 only or bills win straight up.
Summa. Much respect. However, I have to agree with AFN here. Jets are not a very good road team this year and have been very unimpressive on the road all year except ( Miami london) They give up close to 27 pure points per game on defense during their last 4 road series and their offense is average at 17 pppg. Buffalo counters that with a 22 pppg home offense in their last 4 game home series and carry the better home defense by by 8 pppg (19)
Buffalo wins this one wins it big and knocks Jets out of the playoffs Lets forget the Rex Ryan angle in this game. The players on the field for Buffalo are the better team @ home than the Jets are on the road in this game.
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...almost without exception i wud have sympathy for sumone that was put in that situation but in your case i'll make an exception
(Having gotten hammered by the Bills three straight times in embarrassing fashion). That is tongue in cheek somewhat but its time to take out the Bills and the perfect time to do it is when their playoff life is on the line.
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