suuma's NFL week seventeen «» The battle of Buffalo

Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

suuma,

FYI the Buffalo Bills +3 are not the number one pick at the Westgate SuperBook NFL contest as you have previously stated. not even close. your information is tainted

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



The Hilton/Westgate SuperContest numbers still show me Bills as the most picked team at 403 on two sites. On the Westgate itself they are showing this.

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Raiders +7 over the Chiefs

Raiders are one of those teams I don't want to fade because of motivation. Jack Del Rio has gotten his team ready to play week in week out and I don't expect them to fold this week, especially not after that blown win last time vs. the Chiefs. Do we really believe the Chargers give up their 3rd pick and give their best effort to win SU at Denver? They might cover but I don't see them winning and as we know, these teams are 1-36 SU since 2009. So will Andy Reid go all in here? Does he care about playing at CIN or at HOU? I don't think so.

Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are still out and we saw what the Chiefs do against a good OL without these two last week when Johnny Manziel was able to get several red zone shots. Raiders are going to move the ball here. Not on every drive, but enough to get some scores on the board with Crabtree and Cooper seeing several targets given the time for Derek Carr. The Raiders are a clear 8-8 team. They were the better team when KC visited them and Derek Carr blew the game away with like 3 INT in the fourth q? This Raiders defense has been playing extremely well L5 weeks. They have been averaging a total DVOA of -16.14% over that stretch. This equals a rank of 3 on the 2015 table. The Chiefs' OL which is already below average took another hit with Jah Reid being questionable. I would guess they are going to sit him atleast for some part of the game. So I am expecting this Raiders front seven to dominate and make the life of the Chiefs defense very difficult. Their secondary is a weak spot but they have been improving down the stretch.

Gonna check the next line move before locking it in.

Quote Originally Posted by DroopDog:

Suuma - thank you for all the hard work this season.  I've followed you on a lot of your picks and really like to hear your insight.

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Thanks for your post. Line movement is based on bookies attempt to even out the action. I don't know why everyone says the whole world is on the Jets. When I go through different forums, I see 75% of the picks on the Bills. Just because some consensus sites show a huge discrepancy in the amount of picks, it doesn't mean the money is uneven.

Remember the Cardinals playing at Detroit?  I guess the Cardinals were -3 or -4 and everyone said it would be a trap. The Cards won 42-17 fairly easily. There are no trap lines. 99% of the people who use the words "trap", "square", "sharp", "public", "rigged", "fix" don't have a consistent, documented winning record over a solid sample size on here. That's a fact. But I can tell you 20 great cappers with consistent 55-70% records who never use these words but cap the matchups.

A lot of people are on the Bills because Rex Ryan already beat the Jets and they believe it's the same old Jets team. Even if the Jets lose, it wasn't a trap. But people will say that because want to think that.

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Cincinnati Bengals -9.5 -109

What do the Ravens have to play for? They won their Super Bowl last week. They got the 8th pick and get to 7th if the Jags win against Houston or even 6th if Miami also wins. The Bengals need McCarron to get into rhythm for next week. There is no reason to rest him with a lot of running plays. This kid needs every snap to perform with more confidence next week. And that's what my lean is about - the Bengals' offense over the poor Ravens defense. They get Eifert back which is huge for the Bengals. With Eifert, the Bengals would have won at Denver last week because when Wade Phillips called the zone covers on defense, McCarron had no intermediate option. Kroft just isn't there already.

In the first matchup, the Ravens were with Flacco, Justin Forsett, Steve Smith and some more key players who are now injured and despite a fumble return TD, they couldn't win or cover against the Bengals at home. Eifert had no catches in that game. The Bengals had a turnover on downs at the BAL 2 and another end zone INT. So this game could have been over at 24-0. They let the Ravens rally but it still wasn't enough.

This time we are getting a phenomenal home team in the Bengals that needs his signal caller heated up for the playoffs against a decimated Ravens team who have virtually nothing to play for with a defense that looked like a swiss cheese in many games.

This game screams blowout for me.

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

59-49 ytd

After a terrible season I am finally heating up for the playoffs. Week 17 is difficult to cap because there are a lot of weird spots. So it's possible I will end up with just 3-4 picks.

What's very interesting is that huge underdogs just don't win in the last week. Since 2009, underdogs of more than a TD are 1-36 SU and 13-24 ATS. They are 2-35 on 6-pt-teasers. Since 2008 they are 2-41 SU and so on. These teams don't have motivation to win, they play for the draft pick. So you could look to find some teasing options.

For example the Ravens and Dolphins will have NO motivation to win this week. The Ravens had their personal Super Bowl last week and they don't care about a win over the Bengals. The Dolphins are already looking at the next draft, they have no motivation whether the Pats will have the first or second seed. But the Pats wanna have home field through the playoffs.