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Tampa Bay at Dallas Analysis

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Posted: #26
if Romo was playing I could see how people are saying Dallas has value at -2 at home but Brad Johnson?
 
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Posted: #27
tampa is impresive,  they are tough.  that being said  even wade phillips the worst coach in the business, will get his desperate team up enough to win this game.  I hate the fucking cowboys too just my feeling.
 
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Posted: #28
Some interesting trends here.
TB 2-9 ATS in week 8
Tampa is usually stuggling with injuries at this point in the year.  Last year it was Cadillac (Garcia was banged up to), the year before it was the QB (Simms to Gradkowski), 2005 QB again(Grise to Simms), 2004 QB again (Johnson to Simms to Greise), This year Garcia was out early, and is now back full stregnth and TB now has solid stability at the QB position.  WR Bryant has showed up and earned the starting job, and if galloway plays Sunday, WHOOOOOOOOO, he will play flanker or slot and Garcia will eat em up with short pass and Galloway will gets lots of YAC.
 
DAL 1-9 ATS last 10 against NFC
These guys beat CLE and CIN.  Big deal.  They could have lost against Philly.  Dallas is not the team to beat this year.  You think T.O. is happy about Roy Williams coming in.  Yea right.  This Dallas team has lots of talent, and can win any given Sunday, just not this Sunday 
 
I look at the last time these two played each other (I watched this game also on Thanksgiving at my aunts house)  BRUCE GRADKOWSKI was the BUCS QB.  Tony Romo had a big day, and Barber and Jones had big days to.  TB defense had injuries that year. That wont happen this time around.  If you dont want Tampa on the spread, at least tease em to +6 or 7.  If they lose, it wont be by more than a feild goal or 4.
 
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Posted: #29
I have no faith in Brad Johnson.   Only way Cowboys win this game if Defense steps up and special teams.  Cowboys need to sign a veteran mobile back up QB like Chris Simms.
 
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Posted: #30
The Cowboys aren't going to implode...they already have.  They got their ass handed to them last week by a 1 victory team. 

That being said, Tony Romo has stepped back and given up the spotlight so that they can try and do something with the offense under Johnson's leadership.  They will run the ball as much a they can and use Witten a ton. 

Tampa Bay was not impressive in their victory over a hapless Seattle team at home last week and they lost to a pitiful defensive team in Denver by only scoring 13 points 2 weeks earlier.  

Cowboys step up this week and surprise with a win.
 
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Posted: #31
tampatony- wagerline has 56% on TB, cbssportsline (my office picks) has it 60% on TB.  where is it you see public on Dallas?
 
this seems like the NE/DEN all over again to me...everybody thought NE was dead and was on DEN.
 
all the arguments seem to be anti-Dallas, not pro TB which has me worried. 
 
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Posted: #32
Yea but 56% is an early percentage.  By sunday, everybody will be on Dallas, or it will be even.  The N.E. situation is different.  Only Tom Brady is out for them, so playing with Cassel is something they have gotten used to for a number of week.  Tell me this, if Dallas is going to win, why would the books not put them at at least -3 or -4.  The books know this game can go either way, however, if dallas was going to win, the moneyline would be much higher in both ways than they are now.  The books wont adjust the spread b/c the cannot afford to lose so much on a +150 TB moneyline.  Handicapping is more than evaluating talent, and if a team needs a win.  Dont let these media clowns fool you with their picks and predictions, they dont have any money on the line, thus they would not care one way or another who won the damn game.  Always pay attention to the spread, and WHY the spread is what it is.  If Dallas was so much better, or had "a good chance" to win, the spread would not be what it is.  TB is NOT a public team, Dallas is.  When casual and chalk bettors see the spread, they will be all over Dallas, watch.
 
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Posted: #33
over is best play good luck on tbay
 
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Posted: #34
tt- what's weird is that both my office pools (cbs and officefootballpools.com) see the line at -3.5 so i'm not sure if that line was pounded hard to 2 or what.  i have never seen the line at 3.5, so dont know.
 
and i would agree that handicapping is more than line movement, but TB also put up a whopping 13 pts on the worst defense in the league, and 20 pts on a pathetic seattle defense.  Dallas is more talented then both on defense, despite the injuries.  whether they play to that talent level is the million dollar question.
 
while i agree that TB is not a public team, everybody and their mom has heard about the Rams blowing out the Cowboys and how bad things are in big D, so i would be shocked if the public was on them this weekend at gametime.
 
 
 
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Posted: #35
TB never blows out teams, no matter what.  They win games.  A 1 point spread is winning the game.
 
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Posted: #36
I'm a huge Dallas fan, and I don't see how they can win this game.  I dont understand how they are even favored in this game.

Brad Johnson had 3 interceptions against the Rams, and now is going up against a Bucs defense. The only way Dallas wins this game is if the Defense plays lights out and scores 14 points on D and special teams gets a TD as well.
 
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Posted: #37
GO BUCSSSSS
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by TampaTony:

3) If Galloway and Cadillac plays, it will be trouble for Dallas.  Both players bring more to the BUCS than they alredy have.  The BUCS to me, are one of the better teams in the NFC right now already, so you go figure.

Be careful taking advice from a Tampa "follower" that thinks there's a chance of Cadillac playing this week. Guy just practiced for the 1st time in a year this week and isn't even taking hits in practice. Bucs season ticket holder here.....

Although I do like the Bucs this week.

This game will be won or lost by the big uglies. If Tampa protects Garcia and gets pressure on Johnson, Game Over! I fully expect the talented O-Line to protect Jeff, but I'm worried about Brad having time in the pocket against that Cover 2 with Witten and TO working the underneath/intermediate areas of the field.

But for my money, Tampa plus any points in this game is a great value... and that's where my dough will be

Tampa Bay 24   Dallas 20

 
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Posted: #39
What websites do you guys check on lines and such. Sports Insights has the public on Tampa at 62%
 
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Posted: #40
Dallas Fan here. There is no reason to think Tampa would lose this. but my gut is telling me with our backs against the wall, phillips taking over the defense and making calls we will pull out a miraculous win!! good luck
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by rissinite:

Be careful taking advice from a Tampa "follower" that thinks there's a chance of Cadillac playing this week. Guy just practiced for the 1st time in a year this week and isn't even taking hits in practice. Bucs season ticket holder here.....

Although I do like the Bucs this week.

This game will be won or lost by the big uglies. If Tampa protects Garcia and gets pressure on Johnson, Game Over! I fully expect the talented O-Line to protect Jeff, but I'm worried about Brad having time in the pocket against that Cover 2 with Witten and TO working the underneath/intermediate areas of the field.

But for my money, Tampa plus any points in this game is a great value... and that's where my dough will be

Tampa Bay 24   Dallas 20

I agree with you assesment.  I know Cadillac is just getting back to practice, but he may see some time on the field according to Jon Gruden.  Im not stupid enough to just take money on my team in the blind, I just think they have a good chance at winning this game with all the Dallas injuries.  If they were not going to cover, Id tell you.

 

 
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Posted: #42
 
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Posted: #43
FYI
Tampa is 1-8 all time at Dallas
I like over only
 
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Posted: #44
Tony, I like the BUCS as well. Hate 'the Boys, see I'm a die hard 49ers fan and can appreciate the fact that the Bucs have my home grown Jeff Garcia leading the squad to Victory.
 
Let's go BUCS! (+3)
 
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Posted: #45
this will be a no play for me. this line is screaming for you to take TB. if dallas doesn't turn the ball over they can win, problem is they aren't a team used to playing from behind and once they get down they abandon the run. last time these teams played dallas dominated up front and don't be surprised if it happens again. look for Brad Johnson and Roy Williams to learn this cowboys system andmake a few plays, maybe a big play action pass or 2 to keep this defense honest. i actually look for this game to be more of a low scoring affair with both teams looking to pound the ball. also with all the hype of this game being lost by the cowboys recent failures, a spot for a letdown from the bucs. BOL to all.
 
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Posted: #46
BOL TT I can only add that sometimes these wounded teams find away? WHO needs this game most? GOTTA be DALLAS, especially looking at the GIANTS next week. That said, all logic points to TB & a "W" here. For DALLAS to win they need that over-rated, XL offensive line to show-up and open some holes on the run and protect on the pass. On "D" I don't see anyway they dial-up a solution. Gruden should open it up immediately, but I suspect he'll play it way too close to the vest. Dallas can NOT afford any turnovers, TB can. I'm NOT a fan of either and see much better ops on the board. Should be fun to watch!  
 
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Posted: #47
Its gonna be a long day for Dallas today folks
 
 
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Posted: #48
Famous last words...that prolific Bucs offense shows up once again.
 
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Posted: #49
 
 
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Posted: #50
Well the Bucs showed just how good they are.  They couldn't beat a Cowboy led team by a Quarterback that doesn't have much if anything left.
 
They did prove that they're not the best team in their division eventhough they did play a good game against the Panthers.  If they didn't have such a weak remaining schedule there's no way they'd even be in the playoff hunt.
 
 
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