post 221
Let me first just say that I believe in NFL fixes, and also bad breaks that everyone on the field is aware will affect the game vs. the spread.
(1) Yesterday Covers 60+% consensus teams, all favs, went 4-3 ATS. They were Atl W, Pit W, NYJ W, NEP W, NYG L, Ind L, SLR L. I don't know if these consensus teams actually had lots of public money on them with the large books, but I'll just assume they did.
(2) Regarding Cutler's laziness at the end of the game: I think that's just a product of him not actually caring if they won or lost. I don't think that's part of any fix. It's obvious Chicago would have liked to win yesterday, but imo, they would have liked to win from ahead. I don't think Cutler and some of the other offensive players were too interested in making a gutty 4th quarter effort. By the way, Chicago covered, and I think the public money was tilted slightly to Chi +10. So, I don't think any book benefitted from Chicago lolligagging it on offense.
(3) Tenn/Indy: I'm always shocked at how many shady things I can spot in a Colts game. I'll always see something. Yesterday, I don't think I ever felt like Indy was going to cover at any point. The most shady thing was Collins fumbling the snap and then not falling on it. Very, Very odd. Yes, and then, like you said, here comes Peyton galloping in to save the day even after Jax had fallen way behind. Maybe there was a lot of public money on Ten ML, although I don't know why the public as a whole would do that. I don't know. Very shady, but I don't know. Gun to my head, I would say it was all coincidence. Especially since Ten covered the number.
(4) Denver scoring 2 quick TD's to cover: They didn't push all the fav bettors. The entire week, the line was SD -3.5. I don't think it went to 5 until a few hours before kickoff. Also, I'm not sure that SD was the team with all the money on it. A lot of people were liking Denver's chances in this game. This might have been an even-money-split game at the books.
(5) Washington 4-0 ATS last 4 games even though they were 1-3 SU: yes, yes, here is something to be interested in. Lost to TB 17-16 on the missed extra point but covered the 1.5 (some people pushed at 1). At first I was livid when I saw this, but then I heard Hunter Smith got cut over this play. Made me feel a little better. Still fishy though. Lost to Dal 33-30 but covered 6.5 thanks to an absurd 2nd half rally. What can you say? It was 27-7 in the 3rd quarter and Dallas laid down. Beat Jax 20-17: this is fine. They won the game. Lost to NYG 17-14 but covered the 3.5 on the bomb you mentioned with almost 6 minutes left. I don't know what to say. Busted coverage for NYG. Very odd that after Wash hit that bomb, nobody scored after that. Very odd. And yes, NYG -3.5 was a large public play at the books yesterday.
(6) And then of course, last night. SLR, the big pub road fav, failed to do the job on offense. I don't know. If it was a close game, I might be a little more inclined to look for little things like the phantom 1st down, but Sea just totally shut SL down last night. Bradford is not that good. I'm sure he was trying as best he could out there.