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The trend you’ve been looking for: QB’s making their first start in the playoff SU & ATS

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Posted: #1

Since 2002, quarterbacks making first start in the NFL Playoffs have gone 13-30 SU and 11-31-1 ATS. 


NOT an endorsement of any play but I’ve been looking for this one myself.

 
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Posted: #2
Any road/home info? Seems like a majority (above 50%) would be roadies....
 
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Posted: #3
Nice info.  It would be even nicer if it can be broken down by seeds.
 
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Posted: #4
Train - has to be A LOT of home teams in there - as any of 2nd weekend (by definition) would be HOME team (other team won wknd before).
 
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Posted: #5
Looks like you have your eye on that KC/INDY game. If there’s ever going to be an outlier to that stat, it would take someone really special. Perhaps some one who threw for 50 TD’s and might be league MVP. 
 
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Posted: #6
I'm not sure that this matters. He's having the best season a rookie ever has, why should this apply to him?
 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

Looks like you have your eye on that KC/INDY game. If there’s ever going to be an outlier to that stat, it would take someone really special. Perhaps some one who threw for 50 TD’s and might be league MVP.
peace_5

 
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Posted: #8

Interstesting info.

 

I'm looking for reasons why I shouldn't take the +5.5 and can't find many.  

 

Then again...there is Patrick Mahomes.

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

Looks like you have your eye on that KC/INDY game. If there’s ever going to be an outlier to that stat, it would take someone really special. Perhaps some one who threw for 50 TD’s and might be league MVP. 

Well that's the prevailing counter.

But note, Brees and Manning are in this stat SU and ATS losers.

I have no breakdowns for this one.
 
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Posted: #10
We all saw what happened to Lamar Jackson last week.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by ksuwins:

Interstesting info.

 

I'm looking for reasons why I shouldn't take the +5.5 and can't find many.  

take the M.l. be happy..5.5 is nice..buy to 6....it is only juice when u lose. 

Then again...there is Patrick Mahomes.

bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #12
Scal a  pt Pleaser buddy...

Pleaser / 2-4T / 6 Pts / TL
Football - NFL 
 Kansas City Chiefs - Indianapolis Colts 01/12/2019 (01:35 PM) (Pending) 
Under 51 Points for the Game 

Football - NFL 
[304] LA Rams - Dallas Cowboys 01/12/2019 (05:15 PM) (Pending) 
Under 42½ Points for the Game 

Football - NFL 
] LA Chargers - New England Patriots 01/13/2019 (10:05 AM) (Pending) 
Over 53½ Points for the Game 

Football - NFL 
 New Orleans Saints - Philadelphia Eagles 01/13/2019 (01:40 PM) (Pending) 
Under 45½ Points for the Game 

10/380   !!!!!!!   In pleasers both sides can lose it for you. 
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #13
6 pt pleaser
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by dcp1985:

We all saw what happened to Lamar Jackson last week.

People need to stop with this bullshit comparison. Lamar Jackson cannot throw. He's the closest thing to an RB playing QB in the NFL.

Patrick Mahomes has serious talent everywhere. Rocket arm, great accuracy, good running ability, great mechanics throwing on the run, clutch under pressure in big moments. He has it all, there's no one like him in the entire league.
 
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Posted: #15

Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

Quote Originally Posted by dcp1985:

We all saw what happened to Lamar Jackson last week.
People need to stop with this bullshit comparison. Lamar Jackson cannot throw. He's the closest thing to an RB playing QB in the NFL.Patrick Mahomes has serious talent everywhere. Rocket arm, great accuracy, good running ability, great mechanics throwing on the run, clutch under pressure in big moments. He has it all, there's no one like him in the entire league.

Correct ... He is a gun ... He has answered every challenge put to him ... He already looks like a total and utter professional who will approach this game as "just another very important game to win" ... I would dare say that my money is going to be on this "legend of a player" to knock this stat out of the field ... peace_5

Being challenged in life is inevitable ... Being defeated in life is optional ...
 
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Ok, fine, he needs a defense too and a willing opponent with weaknesses..for example,  I just think maybe Brady in his first season had just a little better defense, coach and all and it still took a ref to insure the victory in the Tuck game but he didn’t cover 5.5 points

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:


People need to stop with this bullshit comparison. Lamar Jackson cannot throw. He's the closest thing to an RB playing QB in the NFL.

Patrick Mahomes has serious talent everywhere. Rocket arm, great accuracy, good running ability, great mechanics throwing on the run, clutch under pressure in big moments. He has it all, there's no one like him in the entire league.

You're putting way too much stock in the REGULAR season buddy.  The playoffs is a totally different animal.  Look at all the bears fan crying about how they had an amazing REGULAR season.  Sure didn't help them last week.  Look at Deshuaun Watson last year versus this year.  Once nfl teams have a full season of tape on you it goes downhill from there.  

The trend sure worked well last week going 3-0.  Deshuan, Lamar, and Trubisky all went down.  Jared Goff had an amazing regular season last year, but again didn't help him in his first career playoff start against Atlanta did it?

Look there's no doubt about this kid's talent and arm strength but history shows most QBs will struggle in their first career playoff start.  Not to mention Andy Reid is 1-4 in his last 5 playoff games.



 
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Posted: #18

How many of those QBs starting playoffs for first time were all also favorite to win MVP. Normally I think this trend would have my off KC but in statistics Mahomes is the outlier.

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Since 2002, quarterbacks making first start in the NFL Playoffs have gone 13-30 SU and 11-31-1 ATS. 


NOT an endorsement of any play but I’ve been looking for this one myself.


On a 0-4 SU run at the least...   

Goff last year
Watson, Jackson, Trubisky this year.   All were at home  
 
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Posted: #20
Couple that with Andy Reid's playoff record over the last 10 years and there's great value in the Colts ML.

Still mulling it over.

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by GreatWhiteSharp:

How many of those QBs starting playoffs for first time were all also favorite to win MVP. Normally I think this trend would have my off KC but in statistics Mahomes is the outlier.


Mahomes is no outlier. Again, Brees Peyton and Brady all were 0-3 ATS (1-2 SU with the Tuck "Worst Rule in NFL History" assistance).

Those are the three LEGENDS of our era. 

Again, not an endorsement of any pick but this talk of "Well he's a probable MVP" or "He threw 50 TD's" is farcical. 
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by BIGfnPOO:

Scal a  pt Pleaser buddy...

Pleaser / 2-4T / 6 Pts / TL
Football - NFL 
 Kansas City Chiefs - Indianapolis Colts 01/12/2019 (01:35 PM) (Pending) 
Under 51 Points for the Game 

Football - NFL 
[304] LA Rams - Dallas Cowboys 01/12/2019 (05:15 PM) (Pending) 
Under 42½ Points for the Game 

Football - NFL 
] LA Chargers - New England Patriots 01/13/2019 (10:05 AM) (Pending) 
Over 53½ Points for the Game 

Football - NFL 
 New Orleans Saints - Philadelphia Eagles 01/13/2019 (01:40 PM) (Pending) 
Under 45½ Points for the Game 

10/380   !!!!!!!   In pleasers both sides can lose it for you. 

You're a very sick man for playing these 
 
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Posted: #23
Great info Scal. What are you going to be on this weekend? Looks tough, lines look sharp as always for playoffs... 
 
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Posted: #24
Balling I have a play for tommorrow I may post
 
 
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Posted: #25
Scal - take the Pistons today 

Same angle as Kawhi but even better. Kawhi forced his way out, Griffin did not. The team will rally around Blake today and play their hearts out.

If Dwayne Casey can return to Toronto and win straight up as almost double digit dog, I have hope Pistons can do the same today to the Clippers.

Griffin also rested last game to get ready for this one.
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